May 6, 2023 • 33 mins
Mike and Ryan talk shop about the upcoming Kentucky Derby and make some picks.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Thanks for listening to The Jason Smith Show with Mike
Harmon podcast. Be sure to catch us live every weeknight
ten pm to two am Eastern seven to eleven pm
Pacific on Fox Sports Radio. Find your local station for
The Jason Smith Show with Mike Harmon at Foxsports Radio
dot com, or stream us live every night on the
iHeartRadio app by searching fsrleave.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio. Let's go final hour
of the program here, Fox Sports Radio forth tire rack
dot com Studios, Mike Harmon alongside Ryan Hollins. Jason Smith
off to night, getting himself a little extra big Mac
in him because he's nervous about tomorrow's Knicks game. They
(00:45):
will finally play another basketball game. That's right. That series
isn't over. They just took a nice long break to
get you into the national window on a Saturday. We'll
talk about that game coming up about twenty minutes from
now as we broadcast live for the tirerac dot Studios
tirac dot com. We'll help you get there an unmatched selection,
fast free shipping, free road hazard protection, and over ten
(01:07):
thousand recommended installers. Tire rack dot com. The Way tire
buying should be ten years in a league. Analyst for
the Houston Rockets are analyst here Fox Sports Trade. It's
my guy, Ryan Hollins at the Ryan Hollins on Twitter,
Ryan av Fast Pace Show. Lots of great fun chatter,
(01:28):
the Jared Vanderbilt giving you his clothing hack along the way,
and now we're seeing the evolution of we love talking
about dynamic duos and trying to figure out it used
to be big threes. I think we decided to kill
off that third guy because most teams don't have them.
So now everybody getting excitable coming off of the Suns
(01:48):
one twe one fourteen victory over the Nuggets to get
a have a stake here in the series two to one,
still Denver, but Durant thirty nine points, nine rebounds, eight
assists and Devin Booker with forty seven twenty of twenty
five shooting. It's like they didn't play def e fens
(02:11):
on them at all.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Ryan, Well, there's two big takeaways. For one, Booker and
Durant looked like NBA jam Those two just had some
Nicewster write some monster stat lines.
Speaker 4 (02:23):
Dude, and.
Speaker 3 (02:26):
Without Chris Paul, it's tough because you lose your floor. General,
Chris brings a lot to the table. But the positives,
the way they were able to turn it into positives
is defensively, they got better. They were able to switch
a lot of the screens from Denver. They're more physical,
more athletic across the board, and Booker and Durant got
(02:46):
the ball in their hands a lot sooner. Now you
don't want them to have to take on that type
of valume of work, but the ball was in their hands,
so they were in attack mode rather than hey, let's
come out and run offense. So you know you're gonna
have to kind of I don't want to say pick
your poison, but you got to, you know, pick one
way or another. But that that was definitely a big difference.
(03:08):
And you know, if by some weird reason, let's let's
look into the into the future, becau.
Speaker 4 (03:13):
This is what we do.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
They get past Denver and Chris Paul comes back. I
think the key is Chris is gonna have to get
the ball in their hands sooner, and you know, get
off ball a lot quicker and maybe just give you know,
Durant and and Booker some some more responsibility. I mean,
both nearly double figure assist, and I think the playmaking
(03:35):
would have been the biggest question in the matter without
Chris Paul on the floor.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
All right, ty sher, can you fire up the flaming
dumpster for me? Are the Suns better? And do these
guys take on the bigger responsibility and feel that weight
to get that sense of urgency because Chris Paul isn't there, There.
Speaker 4 (04:00):
Was a sense of urgency.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
I'm not gonna it's not realistic for us to say
it's a better team without Chris Paul, but it was.
It was a little bit of both. You're an elimination game.
If you go down three, ah, that's it. There was
no other choice. But they maybe have found some things,
like we said, when Chris Paul gets back, that he
can implement, you know, and say, hey, you know what,
(04:24):
Like I said, you need to put the ball in
Devin Booker's hands a lot sooner.
Speaker 4 (04:28):
This was the real Kevin Durant we saw here tonight.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
Katie had looked like that in a minute, that one
breakaway dunk where he got the rebound, he pushed up
the right sideline and just went up for a two
hand jam.
Speaker 4 (04:39):
I mean he was moving so listen, man.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
Whatever he had for breakfast, whatever he did to get
himself prepared for this game, you can definitely tell the difference.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
You know, what's fun and fun you know, and obviously
you know me being the fan of all of this
because you know, the career stopped early at my five
foot nothing and the lack of speed and jumping ability,
but the just the appreciation and when you get to
watch Durant get into a flow, it's like he's gliding
on the floor because it's like three steps from one
(05:10):
end to the other. Yes, Like it is an absurd
level of quickness. And look, he defies logic from a
physicality standpoint. Right, You look at the guy. He's got
no meat on him at all, and so like, how
does he do this? It's all just bones, sinew and
he's getting after it and one of the most dominant players.
(05:34):
And I appreciate a lot of the off court stuff
like that he's gotten into curiosity, me being in the
loving the collectible side of things that he's invested in
all that. But for this you got just a huge game.
And I thought it was important because we've talked about
the Suns and how they traded away a lot of
that bench, Ryan, when they had that surge to take
(05:56):
the lead into halftime, fifteen point lead, that they would
eventually right and you get your anxious moments, but you
did get to buy at least a couple of minutes
for the rest of your line. Now Durant still at
forty three, Booker at forty two, but you did get
some minutes off the bench, some valuable minutes. TJ. Warren
in his twenty six minutes, they were plus twenty when
(06:18):
he was on the court.
Speaker 4 (06:20):
TJ.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
Warren is a baller who's still looking for bubble Warren.
He's had some injuries, so it's good to see him
back out there. But this is a deeper team than
you think. Obviously it's a big miss without mkhil Bridges,
but you know, they felt comfortable with a couple of
pieces like Joshua Kogi. They could give him a little
more of an extended role on the team. And these
(06:40):
guys have actually, you know, they played well. Now obviously
you know they lost a lot, but they felt comfortable
with a Kogi, with Terrence Ross and TJ. Warren, who
he's glad to see back out there, to be able
to go ahead and make that move to go out
and get Kevin Durant. Now those guys stepped up and
they played well tonight. Like I said, offensively, the biggest
(07:01):
difference they were able to get after Denver. And this
was a different Phoenix team. So you know, if they
can make sure they execute down the stretch, they come
out with this type of intensity, it's a different ballgame.
But this is the Suns that you really expected to
see when you saw Kevin Durant sign there, because you said, man,
that's the potential to Devin Booker, that's the real Devin Booker.
(07:24):
That was the real Kevin Durant we saw here tonight
in the ballgame. And if you're Dinper, you're going that
was their A plus plus effort. Guys, we were in
the game with about five minutes ago, and if that's
their best effort, we're gonna go up through one the
next time we play.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Thirty two for Murray, thirty for Jokichi had the triple double,
thirty seventeen and seventeen punder that a moment, six turnovers,
eleven of nineteen shooting, He's plus five. Murray's plus five.
Gordon with eleven points, and then Porter Junior had twenty one,
so you get you got your your three stars there.
(08:05):
Cacp only took four shots in this game. He'd been
a big factor on the home court for a couple
of games off the Phoenix side. Just do I expect
too much out of DeAndre Ayton? You do twenty six minutes,
nine boards, just four points, four falls.
Speaker 3 (08:26):
Ayden hadn't been doing a bad job guarding Joker. He
just made some absolutely amazing shots. But the thing about
DeAndre Aiden, he's a rebounder, he's a defender, and when
Chris Paul is out there throwing those libs on the
pick and roll, he's a guy who can catch him finish.
So you're not gonna look at Aiden. I'm not sure
what the big hoop lies and say, man Ayden, we
(08:47):
need you to go out and score twenty or thirty points. Now. Defensively,
he can be better, he can stay active, and you
know he can't be a bump on the log when
he's on the floor. But you're not expecting a huge
stat line from DeAndre Aiden. He's the live thread. He's
gonna play within his role on this ball club.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
Ryan Hollins in for Jason Smith on Mike Carbon here
at Fox Sports Radio as we roll into a Friday
night Philadelphia and Joe l Embiid with a huge game,
but once again James Harden the jump shot that we
loved and the game we watched Game one of this
series seems so long ago. That forty five point effort,
(09:26):
the field goal percentage just dismal the last two times out, Ryan,
and you look at what Boston was expected to be
coming into the season. Now they take a two to
one lead, regain the home court advantage as it were,
Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown leading the way as you
(09:47):
would expect, but great balance across the starting lineup, and
a lot of big shots from Al Horford, a guy
who might might just gotta get pushed aside, and like, wait,
Al Horford's still out there, and yeah, Al Horford, if
you give him some space, can still drain shots five
to seven from three seventeen points, all five in double figures.
(10:08):
And then Brogden picked it up towards the end with
fifteen off the bench, emb the one guy for Philadelphia
that gave you a big effort, thirty and thirteen, Maxi
and Harden struggling once again, don't declare anything over, but
what's the adjustment to try to slow things down? How
do you get hard and restarted?
Speaker 4 (10:29):
You this is the tough thing. Why do I reboot him?
Speaker 3 (10:33):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (10:33):
This is the way sending to Vegas on the off day.
Speaker 4 (10:36):
Well, he's probably still going to Vegas on the off day.
Speaker 3 (10:39):
He's probably on a plane right now.
Speaker 4 (10:43):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
But here's the problem that they have in Philly. Embiid
and Harden are still struggling to find ways to play together.
When you see Harden with the basketball in his hands,
it was thrown back Harden and a lot of people
are quick to say that he can't be that guy
now double figure assaysts though essentially he did his job
here tonight. But you want forty five, you want thirty,
(11:06):
you want even consistently, you know, twenty five point hard
And that's what you got to see. And you see that,
you know that type of energy is still within him.
But he's got to find ways to play off Embiid.
They gotta find ways to get themselves easy buckets because
right now and Bead is such a force that it's
like get in the ball and get out the way
that hurts James Harden because you see what James Harden
(11:28):
can still do with the basketball in his hands. So
they got to figure something out pretty quick because Boston
is tough to play against. And you can almost argue
that outside of that last game, they still haven't played.
Speaker 4 (11:41):
Their best basketball.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
They're still figuring things out, and this was as about
as tough a win as you can manufacture. Jason Tata
had some tough shots down the stretch, but in a sense,
you have to guard everybody on the court for Boston.
They penetrate and kick, they'd get up and down, they
can defend their top. They can win ugly ball games,
(12:03):
and that's the difference in Boston from what they've been
now to who they have been in the past. And
if you think about the laws that they have, they're
not getting blown out. They're just losing these close games,
you know, and it's almost like, hey, they may not
have that killer instinct, but their moments, man, where they
definitely look like the best team in the playoffs, definitely
with depth and versatility and the way their roster is constructed.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
Curious team. You know, throughout the season, right we had
the coaching change, rumors of malcontented discs and trying to
keep things rolling. We had that game one Marcus smart decision,
the layup that goes the other way passing to nobody
in particular. They've had these moments to overcome now a
two to one series lead. As we flow through, I'd
(12:47):
be remiss if I didn't point out that the Sixers
did shoot forty three percent from three point range, better
than their overall field goal percentage, which was a shade
under forty percent for the game. Be sure to live
editions of The Jason Smith Show with Mike harmon weekdays
at ten pm Eastern, seven pm Pacific on Fox Sports
Radio and the iHeartRadio app. When we talk about Heaton Knicks,
(13:11):
it all comes down to Ken Jimmy Butler play is
really the end. Already missing Tyler hero looking for bigger
contributions from guys like Duncan Robinson and others, and are
trying to get a little bit of that spark in
the long distance shooting the Knicks. Julius Randall has been
(13:31):
fantastic in spots both he and Jalen Brunson expected to go.
Brunson with the ankle injury off the injury report, and
we see what that does for Thibodeau's rotations. We normally
see and expect these guys to run into a wall,
given the Thibodeau's history, but they've looked more than game
at this point. Say what you will about the Miami
(13:54):
efforts thus far.
Speaker 3 (13:56):
Yeah, here's the thing though, at the end of the day,
this is what got coach Budenholzer fired. People forget very quickly.
Miami lost their first game in the playoffs. They were
game away from absolute elimination, and then they're.
Speaker 4 (14:18):
Going to win.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
The second game looks like just that, I mean just
a you know, going home early one, two three can
coon and Jimmy Butler goes Jimmy Butler mode. They beat
up Giannis, he ends up taking a nasty fall, and
next thing you know, they're in the second round. And
here's the reality. Jimmy Butler could have played in game two.
(14:39):
He got a little bit more rest. He comes out
to play at home. And the thing about the Knicks
is they struggle to score the basketball, and if Jimmy
Butler is on, he can go out and take over.
So the next are good by committee. If they can
slow things down, they look good. But it was almost
like one of those Popovich, san Antonio moves like, oh, Jimmy's.
Speaker 4 (14:58):
Fine, but you know we're gonna hold them out. And
if you go back and watch that game, the Heat
were very much in that ball game.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
And Kyle Lowry plays at a high level and Jimmy
Butler's back. Hey man, the Heat can easily win these
next two games at their house.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
Well that's the thing. Go back to game two. You
didn't get much from Lowry thirty one minutes played, only
six points, did have six assists, but was zero for
four from three point range, three of nine from the field.
Big games from Vincent and Struss thirty eight points combined
on fourteen of twenty nine shooting. I mean, there was
a nice, healthy fine there. Not to mention you look
(15:40):
at Caleb Martin, who gave them a tremendous effort in
his thirty eight minutes minus fourteen. So defensively you're giving
something up, but twenty two points, eight to fifteen from
the field. But the big thing is he can knock
down the outside shot. He was four of eight from
three point range. So you got guys that stepped up
and bam out of Baio is always there. But you
(16:01):
know when you can get Jimmy back in. You know,
I'm a Jimmy Butler guy from from the start, going
back to college and into origin in Chicago, So always
a guy in, you know, my heat. And it was
before they were playing the Knicks, but you know that
was the teams like all right, they get in, they're dangerous.
(16:21):
And I guess that's the larger question I asked you.
You watching these guys and you're traveling and watching this team.
You got a young Houston team that you're covering, but
watching night tonight. How big a gap is there between
what's supposed to be the elite like the Milwaukee Bucks
were expected to be, and where Jimmy Butler and those
Miami Heat come in.
Speaker 4 (16:42):
Jimmy Butler is the biggest wild card in.
Speaker 3 (16:44):
Sports, not just an NBA in sports. He he goes
into superstar mode and he can literally beat the NBA's
best with his style of play. Uh.
Speaker 4 (16:58):
He has a big.
Speaker 3 (16:58):
Body, he gets to the foul line, he puts a
lot of pressure on you and you can't double team him.
He I mean he literally like he becomes unguardable in
these moments if you don't have the personnel to play
against them. So Jimmy Butler is one of the tougher covers,
and then you know, you got to have a big, athletic,
physical wing that can actually keep up with Jimmy Butler
(17:22):
and guard him.
Speaker 4 (17:22):
So he he is tough man.
Speaker 3 (17:25):
He's the one player you know, you could argue right now,
he's easily the best player in the Eastern Conference. You know,
with there he shows up to play. He's He's that
type of guy. So I think that's definitely scary for
the Knicks. I think that ankle should be okay, but
it's something you're gonna have to look at and monitor.
The irony is the injuries essentially took out Giannis out
(17:48):
of Coopo on the Bucks, And is that gonna be
the same story for the Miami Heat if Jimmy Butler
don't look like Jimmy Butler when he gets back.
Speaker 2 (17:56):
Yeah, have the curiosity. We know the Knicks twenty three
and eighteen at home home, the Heat on the road,
some struggles, but now you get the potential here for
for chaos. You think Aaron Rodgers will go down to
Miami for the game. Why is he gonna follow the
Knicks net?
Speaker 4 (18:12):
Why not? I mean, he's he is any part owner
in the bucks Man he's eight. Well, he's a big
he's a big NBA fan. He's been showing up. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
No, it's it's a curiosity, right of you know how
much FaceTime you want to have. So it's the the
fun of the road show in these series and holding
the weight. And it goes back to what you know
Steve de Sager was giving us in the update, just
talking about ratings and the juice that you have for
(18:42):
some of these series, and folks could try to dismiss
some of the New York stuff or even the Los
Angeles and maybe it's because you're oversaturated with it at time.
Certainly here in Los Angeles. It goes back to you
mentioned before with the Cowboys, like, as long as you're
good or terrible, as long as you're not mediocre, just
(19:05):
give us some storylines. Be a disaster, be an absolute
train wreck. And for all these years the Knicks were,
and then all of a sudden they go and get
Jalen Brunson and folks can cry all they want about
tampering and his dad and whatever. You know what, they
got the job done. I showed up well, but I
mean that's just it and especially the way the NBA works.
If they're just gonna find you what amounts to a
(19:27):
couple of pennies, Who the hell cares? Right, you saw
what they did to the Mavericks. That meant nothing, Yeah,
it did. It left the other teams in Texas alone,
which is curious, but you know, it's the sanctity of
that play in tournament. But it's just that idea of
you know, you've got these marketplaces and if you can
(19:48):
get star power there, you see how quickly folks get back.
We hadn't seen Jack Nicholson forever except for that Superior film.
Some creep looking for him to show up out on
his porch. But hey, let's get a gambling perspective from
this one here Ryan, as we bring in our guy
Todd Furman. Yeah, the Bet the Board podcast, the best
(20:08):
in the business, longtime friend of the show and the
network out about congratulations on the nuptials, my man. That's
that's first and foremost the celebration of Todd's at Todd
Furman on Twitter.
Speaker 5 (20:23):
There he is, Hi, Todd, Hey, what's going on, gentlemen?
Speaker 6 (20:26):
How are you on this fine Friday?
Speaker 2 (20:28):
Dominating? It's a sinco Demayo, there's Margarita's waiting, and we've
been talking a lot of NBA playoffs, and we just
did our first four minutes of Nick's talk all night
because Jason isn't here.
Speaker 5 (20:40):
Well, that's four more minutes than you probably should have done.
Anytime Smith takes a Friday off, there's no reason to
give the next the copper time of day, even with
a massive showdown tomorrow at the hands of the Miami Heat,
where they'll go in a short road underdogs four.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
Point favorite are the Heat. Any intel you've got about
the superhuman that is Jimmy Butler, if nothing else, is
he going to make twenty bucks a cup of coffee tomorrow?
Speaker 5 (21:02):
You know this number suggests that Buzzer will be out
there and he'll be a full go. If we get
any injury updates that Jimmy can't go, I expect this
number to come crashing down. I know the official injury
report says questionable. We know Jalen Brunson is probable, but
if Jimmy is fully upgraded, maybe it takes up a
half a point. But if he gets ruled out, you'll
see money come pouring in on the next before that's
twelve thirty Pacific tip off.
Speaker 3 (21:23):
Who do we have the favorite now to win the
NBA Champion Championship.
Speaker 4 (21:28):
I know, for a while I assuming it was the Bucks.
Right now, who's this now? The Bucks?
Speaker 5 (21:33):
Not doubt yeah, coming into the postseason, it was the
Milwaukee Bucks. But right now the Celtics, just by virtue
of the road that they'll have in front of him
now taking control of the series, they moved to the forefront.
The West appears to be still very much a four
horse race when you look at it in that regard.
But the Celtics, you know, barring a collapse, kind of
cann't control their own destiny. And when you look at
(21:53):
some of the prices throughout the market now, the number
available on Boston a shade less than two to one,
and then it's an absolute logjams with the Nuggets the
shade less than four to one, and you're talking about
the Warriors and Lakers right around five before you get
into the quartette of teams that still have plenty of
work in front of them with the seventy six ers, Sons,
Nicks and of course the Heat.
Speaker 2 (22:12):
Did we see a bunch of money start coming in
just because prosper Kip yelling the Lakers are back.
Speaker 5 (22:17):
And yeah, it didn't really change to market a ton.
But when you look at the landscape of the Western Conference,
for the first time in a long time, the Lakers
were trending up with an overall body of work and
their health, while other teams that you thaw could have
been likely potential suitors and door teams capable of winning
the Western Conference start a trend the other way. So
it's really interesting though, because when we look at the
Denver Nuggets, this is a team, despite being a number
(22:39):
one seed, that really doesn't get a whole lot of buzz.
I mean, we saw them disrespected in the series price
against the Phoenix Suns, but they have the star power
capable of carrying them now.
Speaker 6 (22:48):
I know they let Phoenix get a glimpse.
Speaker 5 (22:50):
We'll see exactly how Game four goes, but if Denver's
able to win that one, obviously a huge leg up
in terms of punching their tickets to the Western Conference finals.
Speaker 3 (22:58):
All right, So for give me if I misswold you said,
where is the Golden State?
Speaker 4 (23:03):
Are they the favorites to come out the West right now?
Speaker 3 (23:05):
And secondly, forgive me if I'm late to the party,
but I mean the Vegas odds are like spot on,
I mean, how much work Ghost Cities analytics and these
picks like that, they are ridiculous.
Speaker 2 (23:19):
You almost like that's the thing.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
Mike, right, Like you're looking and going, well, what's Vegas
got to say? Because they seem to know things before
they actually happen.
Speaker 5 (23:29):
You know, this time of year, when you have plenty
of data points and these series go five, six, seven games,
the numbers continue to get tighter and tighter. So it's
all about trying to identify an intangible angle. And sometimes
what we've seen is the home team when they lose
Game one, typically plays with their hair on fire on
game two. Yet you get a huge recency bias for
the betting public that wants to bet these underdogs. Of course,
(23:50):
the perfect illustration. You know, you saw people running to
the window to bet the Lakers in Game two against
Golden State. The Warriors go out and win that game
quite convincingly, and very similar scenario playing out with the
Celtics and seventy six ers. The Warriors, though not listed
his favorites, just because they're in a flat footed tie
right now with the Lakers. And we think this series couldn't,
you know, go six seven games. Meanwhile, the Nuggets still
(24:11):
very much in control despite losing tonight. So that's why
the Nuggets right now are the team to beat in
the West in terms.
Speaker 6 (24:16):
Of the odds. But that, of course, subject could.
Speaker 5 (24:18):
Change if they dropped game four to Phoenix and you
see the Lakers end up winning both games three and four.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
Now, it's funny. We were talking Smith and I and
look it became a clown showed towards the end watching
that Warriors Lakers game. And I joked because I looked
at the live betting and it was twenty six and
a half Warriors minus twenties. It goes one, twenty seven,
one hundred your final, And we just kind of looked
at each other like, hey, I'm glad you took the
(24:45):
took the Warriors on that wager there, Smith. But really, again,
going back to the data points and such, how much
more do we see a handle and involvement in live
betting or is the streaming like we talked about last week, Todd,
is that still something that keeps it a little difficult
when you have that lag from your table providers at all?
Speaker 5 (25:07):
Not so much in the NBA, where obviously we see
a rash of scoring, it changes the dynamic a little
bit if you're betting football and you want to know
what's going on in real time in terms of where
the drive has gone, was there a potential turnover, and
things of that nature. But as far as live betting
with the NBA, I mean it becomes a great vehicle.
We know the age old cliche that every team makes
(25:27):
a run and if you don't like the number that
you're getting before a game starts, more often than not
you'll find a great entry point, regardless of if you
want to bet the favorite, the underdog, or either side
of the total. And you saw that in that Warriors
Lakers game. Despite the Warriors winning going away, you had
a chance to bet them on the money line at
the end of the first quarter when they trailed at
a price as low as minus one thirty five, a
far cry from where that number ballooned out to and
(25:49):
a lot of similar discourse around the total that number
got us highest two forty five and a half. I
think those folks that were sitting on undertickets to two
twenty seven and a half, counting their lucky stars, knowing
the teams combined for just two points, with a final
four plus.
Speaker 2 (26:02):
Minutes to Furman, our guest here bet the Board podcast
where you find him at Todd Furman on Twitter, longtime
friend of the show. Sorry to jump you there, Ryan,
go ahead, then go ahead. Well we've got the Kentucky
Derby coming up tomorrow as well, Todd. You guys have
your racing in the auto forum, but paying attention as
(26:24):
a group to the Kentucky Derby. Four horses scratch, some
chaos there, some sad stories coming out of Churchill downs,
but the event goes on any line that you've seen
that cut through.
Speaker 5 (26:37):
For you, Yeah, some real unfortunate situations when you look
at what's going on, and it's unusual to see horses,
you know, wearing silks of twenty one, twenty two and
twenty three. Lord only knows how much deeper we'll have
to go into the stable to get something close to
a full field tomorrow. For me, you know, as I
go through, I know a lot of Kate case being
made for the favorite and always the case. Despite seeing
(26:58):
a long shot run for the roses. Two horses that
stand out to me that offer a little bit of value.
I'm not going way down the board, but Angel of
Empire right now six to one in the morning line.
If you shop around a little bit, you can find
seven or eight to one and some of the fixed
odds pool. And if you're looking to try and put
together an exact of the sixth horse trained by Todd Pletcher,
Jose Ortiz will ride Kingsbarns though that would be my
(27:19):
exacta for tomorrow's race. Of course, box them and then
dealing with some matchups, but don't want to share those
because I know they're not all widely available and the
last thing I want to create for your loyal listenership
there harm is a little bit of fomo.
Speaker 2 (27:32):
A little bit of chaos that runs in I know
a lot of folks getting excited for Derma Sodagaki, the
horse from Japan with some blistering speed. Can you say
that right?
Speaker 4 (27:45):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (27:45):
Well I think so, and if I can't, I'm in
trouble now. But the United Arab Emirates race that they
run fourteen years, second fastest time as we go, one
more for me coming out of the race. Major Baseball,
some of the teams that I think people were excited
about coming into the season failing early. Do we see
(28:07):
people jump ship and go and back some mother pardon
the pund horses.
Speaker 5 (28:11):
Now, you've definitely seen obviously a shift in odds, and
I think most notable when you look at the National
League Central seeing a team like the Saint Louis.
Speaker 6 (28:19):
Cardinals, who were picked by many to finish.
Speaker 5 (28:20):
A top the heap there, their odds have drifted out
to right around plus three eighty to win the division,
not exactly like the Brewers have run away and hidden.
And we know the luxury that you're afforded in one
hundred and sixty two game grind anything that can happen
often does. Shoheo Tani, of course, has moved his candidacy
to an odds on favorite to win the American League MVP,
depending on the book you shop around some of the
(28:41):
other interesting races out there, we knew that it was
going to be hotly contested in the National League for
the Rookie of the Year, Jordan Walker took all sorts
of money. He actually went off the favor before the
first game of the season. But given the performances we've
seen from Corbyn Carroll in Arizona and James Outman as
a member of the Dodgers, those numbers have shortened. I
can say something nice about a met for the first
time in a while. Brett Maddie, a guy that's taken
(29:02):
a little bit of professional money. I know he was
a late call up, but twenty five to one kind
of the going great. We've seen his number come crashing
down into that plus seven fifty range. When you look
at some of the other markets, like the World Series,
it's still the Astros as a favorite, but the Braves
gaining on them. And we know sportsbooks very reluctant to
drop the price on the Yankees even amid you know,
a mediocre start at best. It's a Tampa Bay Rays, though,
(29:25):
who've been the big beneficiary twenty two to one to
start the season now with their tour at start price,
actually with shorter odds than Frostburg's beloved Dodgers.
Speaker 2 (29:33):
Yeah, next week we'll get into the idea of who's
the most likely to be fired Aaron Boone and other
big stories of the day as we move on in
the NBA playoffs as well. Again, congratulations on your nuptules, buddy,
Thanks Louch, thanks so much.
Speaker 6 (29:48):
Have a great weekend. Good luck with all your Derby picks.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Jason Smith
Show with Mike Harmon weekdays at ten pm Eastern, seven
pm Pacific, where at Smith welcome back in. We're running
up that hill for the final time to night and
for this week, Mike Carmon, Ryan Hollins with you Smith
somewhere that it's like the bat signal just went up
and he went, no, not that song again. Thanks mayor. Hey,
(30:15):
it's time for the Progressive play of the night. Progressive
making things even easier to help you bundle your home
and car insurance together so you could save on both.
Learn more at Progressive dot com or one eight hundred Progressive.
We tie things together with the Slim Reaper, the.
Speaker 3 (30:30):
Ravle, the basket, all on the drive, take them all away.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
In Plam Bam flam. Heyde, if you don't like it,
don't watch it. Eighty nine year old Al McCoy retiring.
He's there on the Sun's radio network. Sons get there
there marking the the winner's column. So now it's two
to one in that series. Ryan Tomorrow, we were talking
(30:53):
about the games on tap the undercard. We've got the
Nicks and the Heat talking to Todd Furman base down
the line, the expectation, Jimmy Butler will give it the
old college try. What are you anticipating there?
Speaker 3 (31:08):
I like the Heat. Obviously you're gonna assume Jimmy Butler plays,
and even if he even if he just gets on
the floor and he's not one hundred percent, his presence
will be enough.
Speaker 4 (31:19):
And here's the reality.
Speaker 3 (31:20):
I don't think the Knicks had played great, and we
talked about it earlier in the show. In that game too,
they didn't look good and Miami had a chance to
go ahead and get that win, and that just it
would have been just devastating if they were able to
get a win without Jimmy Butler. And what's scary when
you watching the Miami Heat versus the Knicks. They could
be down four or five points and they feel like
(31:42):
they can just hit this switch and still end up
winning the game.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
Just like the Golden State Warriors. They come to Los
Angeles Lakers again to get in almost five hundred bucks.
Laker crowd, you expect better from ad do the Lakers
hold serve at home?
Speaker 3 (31:58):
I do, are going to play with a lot of
energy at home. Golden State is going to be better.
There's nothing going to be easy about the game. But
I think the role players as a whole, their defensive
identity will be there. And the Lakers also do a
better job at home of running, getting out in transition
and getting easy opportunities, and that will benefit Anthony Davis.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
Now I saw a report tie it together because we
had the highlight the progressive player of the day of
the Slim Reaper Kevin Durant. A report out of Australia
that you will pass on the highways and byways of life.
Thirty six murderers in your life.
Speaker 3 (32:37):
Oh my gosh.
Speaker 2 (32:39):
Now you're thinking about people you worked with, maybe some
people in your family, maybe the giving folks the side eye.
It really takes out a whole different thing when you
start pondering that. Now there's a deep dive on the
psychological profiles or whatever, if you want to go down there.
But just the numbers. Thirty six, which means number thirty
seven is an unlucky number. Frostburg thirty seven, It is
(33:02):
an unlucky number. I got it and I was listening
life our daily. I just didn't life. That's a whole
other world. Just walking the walls, the halls here. I'm
glad I called that guy. Let me tell you uh
for Frostburg and ty Shirt Patrick in the back our
(33:26):
guy Steve Desager, Mike Harmon alongside Ryan Hollins. Had a blast.
Ryan will do it again on Tuesday. Enjoy the games,
make those notes. Bernie Fratto coming up here, taking it
into the night. Yeah, I bet your Friday Night just
changed America. How I love you all, so you get soon.
Pets
Thanks for listening to The Jason Smith Show with Mike
Harmon podcast. Be sure to catch us live every weeknight
ten pm to two am Eastern seven to eleven pm
Pacific on Fox Sports Radio. Find your local station for
The Jason Smith Show with Mike Harmon at Foxsports Radio
dot com, or stream us live every night on the
iHeartRadio app by searching fsrleave.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio. Let's go final hour
of the program here, Fox Sports Radio forth tire rack
dot com Studios, Mike Harmon alongside Ryan Hollins. Jason Smith
off to night, getting himself a little extra big Mac
in him because he's nervous about tomorrow's Knicks game. They
(00:45):
will finally play another basketball game. That's right. That series
isn't over. They just took a nice long break to
get you into the national window on a Saturday. We'll
talk about that game coming up about twenty minutes from
now as we broadcast live for the tirerac dot Studios
tirac dot com. We'll help you get there an unmatched selection,
fast free shipping, free road hazard protection, and over ten
(01:07):
thousand recommended installers. Tire rack dot com. The Way tire
buying should be ten years in a league. Analyst for
the Houston Rockets are analyst here Fox Sports Trade. It's
my guy, Ryan Hollins at the Ryan Hollins on Twitter,
Ryan av Fast Pace Show. Lots of great fun chatter,
(01:28):
the Jared Vanderbilt giving you his clothing hack along the way,
and now we're seeing the evolution of we love talking
about dynamic duos and trying to figure out it used
to be big threes. I think we decided to kill
off that third guy because most teams don't have them.
So now everybody getting excitable coming off of the Suns
(01:48):
one twe one fourteen victory over the Nuggets to get
a have a stake here in the series two to one,
still Denver, but Durant thirty nine points, nine rebounds, eight
assists and Devin Booker with forty seven twenty of twenty
five shooting. It's like they didn't play def e fens
(02:11):
on them at all.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Ryan, Well, there's two big takeaways. For one, Booker and
Durant looked like NBA jam Those two just had some
Nicewster write some monster stat lines.
Speaker 4 (02:23):
Dude, and.
Speaker 3 (02:26):
Without Chris Paul, it's tough because you lose your floor. General,
Chris brings a lot to the table. But the positives,
the way they were able to turn it into positives
is defensively, they got better. They were able to switch
a lot of the screens from Denver. They're more physical,
more athletic across the board, and Booker and Durant got
(02:46):
the ball in their hands a lot sooner. Now you
don't want them to have to take on that type
of valume of work, but the ball was in their hands,
so they were in attack mode rather than hey, let's
come out and run offense. So you know you're gonna
have to kind of I don't want to say pick
your poison, but you got to, you know, pick one
way or another. But that that was definitely a big difference.
(03:08):
And you know, if by some weird reason, let's let's
look into the into the future, becau.
Speaker 4 (03:13):
This is what we do.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
They get past Denver and Chris Paul comes back. I
think the key is Chris is gonna have to get
the ball in their hands sooner, and you know, get
off ball a lot quicker and maybe just give you know,
Durant and and Booker some some more responsibility. I mean,
both nearly double figure assist, and I think the playmaking
(03:35):
would have been the biggest question in the matter without
Chris Paul on the floor.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
All right, ty sher, can you fire up the flaming
dumpster for me? Are the Suns better? And do these
guys take on the bigger responsibility and feel that weight
to get that sense of urgency because Chris Paul isn't there, There.
Speaker 4 (04:00):
Was a sense of urgency.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
I'm not gonna it's not realistic for us to say
it's a better team without Chris Paul, but it was.
It was a little bit of both. You're an elimination game.
If you go down three, ah, that's it. There was
no other choice. But they maybe have found some things,
like we said, when Chris Paul gets back, that he
can implement, you know, and say, hey, you know what,
(04:24):
Like I said, you need to put the ball in
Devin Booker's hands a lot sooner.
Speaker 4 (04:28):
This was the real Kevin Durant we saw here tonight.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
Katie had looked like that in a minute, that one
breakaway dunk where he got the rebound, he pushed up
the right sideline and just went up for a two
hand jam.
Speaker 4 (04:39):
I mean he was moving so listen, man.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
Whatever he had for breakfast, whatever he did to get
himself prepared for this game, you can definitely tell the difference.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
You know, what's fun and fun you know, and obviously
you know me being the fan of all of this
because you know, the career stopped early at my five
foot nothing and the lack of speed and jumping ability,
but the just the appreciation and when you get to
watch Durant get into a flow, it's like he's gliding
on the floor because it's like three steps from one
(05:10):
end to the other. Yes, Like it is an absurd
level of quickness. And look, he defies logic from a
physicality standpoint. Right, You look at the guy. He's got
no meat on him at all, and so like, how
does he do this? It's all just bones, sinew and
he's getting after it and one of the most dominant players.
(05:34):
And I appreciate a lot of the off court stuff
like that he's gotten into curiosity, me being in the
loving the collectible side of things that he's invested in
all that. But for this you got just a huge game.
And I thought it was important because we've talked about
the Suns and how they traded away a lot of
that bench, Ryan, when they had that surge to take
(05:56):
the lead into halftime, fifteen point lead, that they would
eventually right and you get your anxious moments, but you
did get to buy at least a couple of minutes
for the rest of your line. Now Durant still at
forty three, Booker at forty two, but you did get
some minutes off the bench, some valuable minutes. TJ. Warren
in his twenty six minutes, they were plus twenty when
(06:18):
he was on the court.
Speaker 4 (06:20):
TJ.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
Warren is a baller who's still looking for bubble Warren.
He's had some injuries, so it's good to see him
back out there. But this is a deeper team than
you think. Obviously it's a big miss without mkhil Bridges,
but you know, they felt comfortable with a couple of
pieces like Joshua Kogi. They could give him a little
more of an extended role on the team. And these
(06:40):
guys have actually, you know, they played well. Now obviously
you know they lost a lot, but they felt comfortable
with a Kogi, with Terrence Ross and TJ. Warren, who
he's glad to see back out there, to be able
to go ahead and make that move to go out
and get Kevin Durant. Now those guys stepped up and
they played well tonight. Like I said, offensively, the biggest
(07:01):
difference they were able to get after Denver. And this
was a different Phoenix team. So you know, if they
can make sure they execute down the stretch, they come
out with this type of intensity, it's a different ballgame.
But this is the Suns that you really expected to
see when you saw Kevin Durant sign there, because you said, man,
that's the potential to Devin Booker, that's the real Devin Booker.
(07:24):
That was the real Kevin Durant we saw here tonight
in the ballgame. And if you're Dinper, you're going that
was their A plus plus effort. Guys, we were in
the game with about five minutes ago, and if that's
their best effort, we're gonna go up through one the
next time we play.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Thirty two for Murray, thirty for Jokichi had the triple double,
thirty seventeen and seventeen punder that a moment, six turnovers,
eleven of nineteen shooting, He's plus five. Murray's plus five.
Gordon with eleven points, and then Porter Junior had twenty one,
so you get you got your your three stars there.
(08:05):
Cacp only took four shots in this game. He'd been
a big factor on the home court for a couple
of games off the Phoenix side. Just do I expect
too much out of DeAndre Ayton? You do twenty six minutes,
nine boards, just four points, four falls.
Speaker 3 (08:26):
Ayden hadn't been doing a bad job guarding Joker. He
just made some absolutely amazing shots. But the thing about
DeAndre Aiden, he's a rebounder, he's a defender, and when
Chris Paul is out there throwing those libs on the
pick and roll, he's a guy who can catch him finish.
So you're not gonna look at Aiden. I'm not sure
what the big hoop lies and say, man Ayden, we
(08:47):
need you to go out and score twenty or thirty points. Now. Defensively,
he can be better, he can stay active, and you
know he can't be a bump on the log when
he's on the floor. But you're not expecting a huge
stat line from DeAndre Aiden. He's the live thread. He's
gonna play within his role on this ball club.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
Ryan Hollins in for Jason Smith on Mike Carbon here
at Fox Sports Radio as we roll into a Friday
night Philadelphia and Joe l Embiid with a huge game,
but once again James Harden the jump shot that we
loved and the game we watched Game one of this
series seems so long ago. That forty five point effort,
(09:26):
the field goal percentage just dismal the last two times out, Ryan,
and you look at what Boston was expected to be
coming into the season. Now they take a two to
one lead, regain the home court advantage as it were,
Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown leading the way as you
(09:47):
would expect, but great balance across the starting lineup, and
a lot of big shots from Al Horford, a guy
who might might just gotta get pushed aside, and like, wait,
Al Horford's still out there, and yeah, Al Horford, if
you give him some space, can still drain shots five
to seven from three seventeen points, all five in double figures.
(10:08):
And then Brogden picked it up towards the end with
fifteen off the bench, emb the one guy for Philadelphia
that gave you a big effort, thirty and thirteen, Maxi
and Harden struggling once again, don't declare anything over, but
what's the adjustment to try to slow things down? How
do you get hard and restarted?
Speaker 4 (10:29):
You this is the tough thing. Why do I reboot him?
Speaker 3 (10:33):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (10:33):
This is the way sending to Vegas on the off day.
Speaker 4 (10:36):
Well, he's probably still going to Vegas on the off day.
Speaker 3 (10:39):
He's probably on a plane right now.
Speaker 4 (10:43):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
But here's the problem that they have in Philly. Embiid
and Harden are still struggling to find ways to play together.
When you see Harden with the basketball in his hands,
it was thrown back Harden and a lot of people
are quick to say that he can't be that guy
now double figure assaysts though essentially he did his job
here tonight. But you want forty five, you want thirty,
(11:06):
you want even consistently, you know, twenty five point hard
And that's what you got to see. And you see that,
you know that type of energy is still within him.
But he's got to find ways to play off Embiid.
They gotta find ways to get themselves easy buckets because
right now and Bead is such a force that it's
like get in the ball and get out the way
that hurts James Harden because you see what James Harden
(11:28):
can still do with the basketball in his hands. So
they got to figure something out pretty quick because Boston
is tough to play against. And you can almost argue
that outside of that last game, they still haven't played.
Speaker 4 (11:41):
Their best basketball.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
They're still figuring things out, and this was as about
as tough a win as you can manufacture. Jason Tata
had some tough shots down the stretch, but in a sense,
you have to guard everybody on the court for Boston.
They penetrate and kick, they'd get up and down, they
can defend their top. They can win ugly ball games,
(12:03):
and that's the difference in Boston from what they've been
now to who they have been in the past. And
if you think about the laws that they have, they're
not getting blown out. They're just losing these close games,
you know, and it's almost like, hey, they may not
have that killer instinct, but their moments, man, where they
definitely look like the best team in the playoffs, definitely
with depth and versatility and the way their roster is constructed.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
Curious team. You know, throughout the season, right we had
the coaching change, rumors of malcontented discs and trying to
keep things rolling. We had that game one Marcus smart decision,
the layup that goes the other way passing to nobody
in particular. They've had these moments to overcome now a
two to one series lead. As we flow through, I'd
(12:47):
be remiss if I didn't point out that the Sixers
did shoot forty three percent from three point range, better
than their overall field goal percentage, which was a shade
under forty percent for the game. Be sure to live
editions of The Jason Smith Show with Mike harmon weekdays
at ten pm Eastern, seven pm Pacific on Fox Sports
Radio and the iHeartRadio app. When we talk about Heaton Knicks,
(13:11):
it all comes down to Ken Jimmy Butler play is
really the end. Already missing Tyler hero looking for bigger
contributions from guys like Duncan Robinson and others, and are
trying to get a little bit of that spark in
the long distance shooting the Knicks. Julius Randall has been
(13:31):
fantastic in spots both he and Jalen Brunson expected to go.
Brunson with the ankle injury off the injury report, and
we see what that does for Thibodeau's rotations. We normally
see and expect these guys to run into a wall,
given the Thibodeau's history, but they've looked more than game
at this point. Say what you will about the Miami
(13:54):
efforts thus far.
Speaker 3 (13:56):
Yeah, here's the thing though, at the end of the day,
this is what got coach Budenholzer fired. People forget very quickly.
Miami lost their first game in the playoffs. They were
game away from absolute elimination, and then they're.
Speaker 4 (14:18):
Going to win.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
The second game looks like just that, I mean just
a you know, going home early one, two three can
coon and Jimmy Butler goes Jimmy Butler mode. They beat
up Giannis, he ends up taking a nasty fall, and
next thing you know, they're in the second round. And
here's the reality. Jimmy Butler could have played in game two.
(14:39):
He got a little bit more rest. He comes out
to play at home. And the thing about the Knicks
is they struggle to score the basketball, and if Jimmy
Butler is on, he can go out and take over.
So the next are good by committee. If they can
slow things down, they look good. But it was almost
like one of those Popovich, san Antonio moves like, oh, Jimmy's.
Speaker 4 (14:58):
Fine, but you know we're gonna hold them out. And
if you go back and watch that game, the Heat
were very much in that ball game.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
And Kyle Lowry plays at a high level and Jimmy
Butler's back. Hey man, the Heat can easily win these
next two games at their house.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
Well that's the thing. Go back to game two. You
didn't get much from Lowry thirty one minutes played, only
six points, did have six assists, but was zero for
four from three point range, three of nine from the field.
Big games from Vincent and Struss thirty eight points combined
on fourteen of twenty nine shooting. I mean, there was
a nice, healthy fine there. Not to mention you look
(15:40):
at Caleb Martin, who gave them a tremendous effort in
his thirty eight minutes minus fourteen. So defensively you're giving
something up, but twenty two points, eight to fifteen from
the field. But the big thing is he can knock
down the outside shot. He was four of eight from
three point range. So you got guys that stepped up
and bam out of Baio is always there. But you
(16:01):
know when you can get Jimmy back in. You know,
I'm a Jimmy Butler guy from from the start, going
back to college and into origin in Chicago, So always
a guy in, you know, my heat. And it was
before they were playing the Knicks, but you know that
was the teams like all right, they get in, they're dangerous.
(16:21):
And I guess that's the larger question I asked you.
You watching these guys and you're traveling and watching this team.
You got a young Houston team that you're covering, but
watching night tonight. How big a gap is there between
what's supposed to be the elite like the Milwaukee Bucks
were expected to be, and where Jimmy Butler and those
Miami Heat come in.
Speaker 4 (16:42):
Jimmy Butler is the biggest wild card in.
Speaker 3 (16:44):
Sports, not just an NBA in sports. He he goes
into superstar mode and he can literally beat the NBA's
best with his style of play. Uh.
Speaker 4 (16:58):
He has a big.
Speaker 3 (16:58):
Body, he gets to the foul line, he puts a
lot of pressure on you and you can't double team him.
He I mean he literally like he becomes unguardable in
these moments if you don't have the personnel to play
against them. So Jimmy Butler is one of the tougher covers,
and then you know, you got to have a big, athletic,
physical wing that can actually keep up with Jimmy Butler
(17:22):
and guard him.
Speaker 4 (17:22):
So he he is tough man.
Speaker 3 (17:25):
He's the one player you know, you could argue right now,
he's easily the best player in the Eastern Conference. You know,
with there he shows up to play. He's He's that
type of guy. So I think that's definitely scary for
the Knicks. I think that ankle should be okay, but
it's something you're gonna have to look at and monitor.
The irony is the injuries essentially took out Giannis out
(17:48):
of Coopo on the Bucks, And is that gonna be
the same story for the Miami Heat if Jimmy Butler
don't look like Jimmy Butler when he gets back.
Speaker 2 (17:56):
Yeah, have the curiosity. We know the Knicks twenty three
and eighteen at home home, the Heat on the road,
some struggles, but now you get the potential here for
for chaos. You think Aaron Rodgers will go down to
Miami for the game. Why is he gonna follow the
Knicks net?
Speaker 4 (18:12):
Why not? I mean, he's he is any part owner
in the bucks Man he's eight. Well, he's a big
he's a big NBA fan. He's been showing up. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
No, it's it's a curiosity, right of you know how
much FaceTime you want to have. So it's the the
fun of the road show in these series and holding
the weight. And it goes back to what you know
Steve de Sager was giving us in the update, just
talking about ratings and the juice that you have for
(18:42):
some of these series, and folks could try to dismiss
some of the New York stuff or even the Los
Angeles and maybe it's because you're oversaturated with it at time.
Certainly here in Los Angeles. It goes back to you
mentioned before with the Cowboys, like, as long as you're
good or terrible, as long as you're not mediocre, just
(19:05):
give us some storylines. Be a disaster, be an absolute
train wreck. And for all these years the Knicks were,
and then all of a sudden they go and get
Jalen Brunson and folks can cry all they want about
tampering and his dad and whatever. You know what, they
got the job done. I showed up well, but I
mean that's just it and especially the way the NBA works.
If they're just gonna find you what amounts to a
(19:27):
couple of pennies, Who the hell cares? Right, you saw
what they did to the Mavericks. That meant nothing, Yeah,
it did. It left the other teams in Texas alone,
which is curious, but you know, it's the sanctity of
that play in tournament. But it's just that idea of
you know, you've got these marketplaces and if you can
(19:48):
get star power there, you see how quickly folks get back.
We hadn't seen Jack Nicholson forever except for that Superior film.
Some creep looking for him to show up out on
his porch. But hey, let's get a gambling perspective from
this one here Ryan, as we bring in our guy
Todd Furman. Yeah, the Bet the Board podcast, the best
(20:08):
in the business, longtime friend of the show and the
network out about congratulations on the nuptials, my man. That's
that's first and foremost the celebration of Todd's at Todd
Furman on Twitter.
Speaker 5 (20:23):
There he is, Hi, Todd, Hey, what's going on, gentlemen?
Speaker 6 (20:26):
How are you on this fine Friday?
Speaker 2 (20:28):
Dominating? It's a sinco Demayo, there's Margarita's waiting, and we've
been talking a lot of NBA playoffs, and we just
did our first four minutes of Nick's talk all night
because Jason isn't here.
Speaker 5 (20:40):
Well, that's four more minutes than you probably should have done.
Anytime Smith takes a Friday off, there's no reason to
give the next the copper time of day, even with
a massive showdown tomorrow at the hands of the Miami Heat,
where they'll go in a short road underdogs four.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
Point favorite are the Heat. Any intel you've got about
the superhuman that is Jimmy Butler, if nothing else, is
he going to make twenty bucks a cup of coffee tomorrow?
Speaker 5 (21:02):
You know this number suggests that Buzzer will be out
there and he'll be a full go. If we get
any injury updates that Jimmy can't go, I expect this
number to come crashing down. I know the official injury
report says questionable. We know Jalen Brunson is probable, but
if Jimmy is fully upgraded, maybe it takes up a
half a point. But if he gets ruled out, you'll
see money come pouring in on the next before that's
twelve thirty Pacific tip off.
Speaker 3 (21:23):
Who do we have the favorite now to win the
NBA Champion Championship.
Speaker 4 (21:28):
I know, for a while I assuming it was the Bucks.
Right now, who's this now? The Bucks?
Speaker 5 (21:33):
Not doubt yeah, coming into the postseason, it was the
Milwaukee Bucks. But right now the Celtics, just by virtue
of the road that they'll have in front of him
now taking control of the series, they moved to the forefront.
The West appears to be still very much a four
horse race when you look at it in that regard.
But the Celtics, you know, barring a collapse, kind of
cann't control their own destiny. And when you look at
(21:53):
some of the prices throughout the market now, the number
available on Boston a shade less than two to one,
and then it's an absolute logjams with the Nuggets the
shade less than four to one, and you're talking about
the Warriors and Lakers right around five before you get
into the quartette of teams that still have plenty of
work in front of them with the seventy six ers, Sons,
Nicks and of course the Heat.
Speaker 2 (22:12):
Did we see a bunch of money start coming in
just because prosper Kip yelling the Lakers are back.
Speaker 5 (22:17):
And yeah, it didn't really change to market a ton.
But when you look at the landscape of the Western Conference,
for the first time in a long time, the Lakers
were trending up with an overall body of work and
their health, while other teams that you thaw could have
been likely potential suitors and door teams capable of winning
the Western Conference start a trend the other way. So
it's really interesting though, because when we look at the
Denver Nuggets, this is a team, despite being a number
(22:39):
one seed, that really doesn't get a whole lot of buzz.
I mean, we saw them disrespected in the series price
against the Phoenix Suns, but they have the star power
capable of carrying them now.
Speaker 6 (22:48):
I know they let Phoenix get a glimpse.
Speaker 5 (22:50):
We'll see exactly how Game four goes, but if Denver's
able to win that one, obviously a huge leg up
in terms of punching their tickets to the Western Conference finals.
Speaker 3 (22:58):
All right, So for give me if I misswold you said,
where is the Golden State?
Speaker 4 (23:03):
Are they the favorites to come out the West right now?
Speaker 3 (23:05):
And secondly, forgive me if I'm late to the party,
but I mean the Vegas odds are like spot on,
I mean, how much work Ghost Cities analytics and these
picks like that, they are ridiculous.
Speaker 2 (23:19):
You almost like that's the thing.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
Mike, right, Like you're looking and going, well, what's Vegas
got to say? Because they seem to know things before
they actually happen.
Speaker 5 (23:29):
You know, this time of year, when you have plenty
of data points and these series go five, six, seven games,
the numbers continue to get tighter and tighter. So it's
all about trying to identify an intangible angle. And sometimes
what we've seen is the home team when they lose
Game one, typically plays with their hair on fire on
game two. Yet you get a huge recency bias for
the betting public that wants to bet these underdogs. Of course,
(23:50):
the perfect illustration. You know, you saw people running to
the window to bet the Lakers in Game two against
Golden State. The Warriors go out and win that game
quite convincingly, and very similar scenario playing out with the
Celtics and seventy six ers. The Warriors, though not listed
his favorites, just because they're in a flat footed tie
right now with the Lakers. And we think this series couldn't,
you know, go six seven games. Meanwhile, the Nuggets still
(24:11):
very much in control despite losing tonight. So that's why
the Nuggets right now are the team to beat in
the West in terms.
Speaker 6 (24:16):
Of the odds. But that, of course, subject could.
Speaker 5 (24:18):
Change if they dropped game four to Phoenix and you
see the Lakers end up winning both games three and four.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
Now, it's funny. We were talking Smith and I and
look it became a clown showed towards the end watching
that Warriors Lakers game. And I joked because I looked
at the live betting and it was twenty six and
a half Warriors minus twenties. It goes one, twenty seven,
one hundred your final, And we just kind of looked
at each other like, hey, I'm glad you took the
(24:45):
took the Warriors on that wager there, Smith. But really, again,
going back to the data points and such, how much
more do we see a handle and involvement in live
betting or is the streaming like we talked about last week, Todd,
is that still something that keeps it a little difficult
when you have that lag from your table providers at all?
Speaker 5 (25:07):
Not so much in the NBA, where obviously we see
a rash of scoring, it changes the dynamic a little
bit if you're betting football and you want to know
what's going on in real time in terms of where
the drive has gone, was there a potential turnover, and
things of that nature. But as far as live betting
with the NBA, I mean it becomes a great vehicle.
We know the age old cliche that every team makes
(25:27):
a run and if you don't like the number that
you're getting before a game starts, more often than not
you'll find a great entry point, regardless of if you
want to bet the favorite, the underdog, or either side
of the total. And you saw that in that Warriors
Lakers game. Despite the Warriors winning going away, you had
a chance to bet them on the money line at
the end of the first quarter when they trailed at
a price as low as minus one thirty five, a
far cry from where that number ballooned out to and
(25:49):
a lot of similar discourse around the total that number
got us highest two forty five and a half. I
think those folks that were sitting on undertickets to two
twenty seven and a half, counting their lucky stars, knowing
the teams combined for just two points, with a final
four plus.
Speaker 2 (26:02):
Minutes to Furman, our guest here bet the Board podcast
where you find him at Todd Furman on Twitter, longtime
friend of the show. Sorry to jump you there, Ryan,
go ahead, then go ahead. Well we've got the Kentucky
Derby coming up tomorrow as well, Todd. You guys have
your racing in the auto forum, but paying attention as
(26:24):
a group to the Kentucky Derby. Four horses scratch, some
chaos there, some sad stories coming out of Churchill downs,
but the event goes on any line that you've seen
that cut through.
Speaker 5 (26:37):
For you, Yeah, some real unfortunate situations when you look
at what's going on, and it's unusual to see horses,
you know, wearing silks of twenty one, twenty two and
twenty three. Lord only knows how much deeper we'll have
to go into the stable to get something close to
a full field tomorrow. For me, you know, as I
go through, I know a lot of Kate case being
made for the favorite and always the case. Despite seeing
(26:58):
a long shot run for the roses. Two horses that
stand out to me that offer a little bit of value.
I'm not going way down the board, but Angel of
Empire right now six to one in the morning line.
If you shop around a little bit, you can find
seven or eight to one and some of the fixed
odds pool. And if you're looking to try and put
together an exact of the sixth horse trained by Todd Pletcher,
Jose Ortiz will ride Kingsbarns though that would be my
(27:19):
exacta for tomorrow's race. Of course, box them and then
dealing with some matchups, but don't want to share those
because I know they're not all widely available and the
last thing I want to create for your loyal listenership
there harm is a little bit of fomo.
Speaker 2 (27:32):
A little bit of chaos that runs in I know
a lot of folks getting excited for Derma Sodagaki, the
horse from Japan with some blistering speed. Can you say
that right?
Speaker 4 (27:45):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (27:45):
Well I think so, and if I can't, I'm in
trouble now. But the United Arab Emirates race that they
run fourteen years, second fastest time as we go, one
more for me coming out of the race. Major Baseball,
some of the teams that I think people were excited
about coming into the season failing early. Do we see
(28:07):
people jump ship and go and back some mother pardon
the pund horses.
Speaker 5 (28:11):
Now, you've definitely seen obviously a shift in odds, and
I think most notable when you look at the National
League Central seeing a team like the Saint Louis.
Speaker 6 (28:19):
Cardinals, who were picked by many to finish.
Speaker 5 (28:20):
A top the heap there, their odds have drifted out
to right around plus three eighty to win the division,
not exactly like the Brewers have run away and hidden.
And we know the luxury that you're afforded in one
hundred and sixty two game grind anything that can happen
often does. Shoheo Tani, of course, has moved his candidacy
to an odds on favorite to win the American League MVP,
depending on the book you shop around some of the
(28:41):
other interesting races out there, we knew that it was
going to be hotly contested in the National League for
the Rookie of the Year, Jordan Walker took all sorts
of money. He actually went off the favor before the
first game of the season. But given the performances we've
seen from Corbyn Carroll in Arizona and James Outman as
a member of the Dodgers, those numbers have shortened. I
can say something nice about a met for the first
time in a while. Brett Maddie, a guy that's taken
(29:02):
a little bit of professional money. I know he was
a late call up, but twenty five to one kind
of the going great. We've seen his number come crashing
down into that plus seven fifty range. When you look
at some of the other markets, like the World Series,
it's still the Astros as a favorite, but the Braves
gaining on them. And we know sportsbooks very reluctant to
drop the price on the Yankees even amid you know,
a mediocre start at best. It's a Tampa Bay Rays, though,
(29:25):
who've been the big beneficiary twenty two to one to
start the season now with their tour at start price,
actually with shorter odds than Frostburg's beloved Dodgers.
Speaker 2 (29:33):
Yeah, next week we'll get into the idea of who's
the most likely to be fired Aaron Boone and other
big stories of the day as we move on in
the NBA playoffs as well. Again, congratulations on your nuptules, buddy,
Thanks Louch, thanks so much.
Speaker 6 (29:48):
Have a great weekend. Good luck with all your Derby picks.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Jason Smith
Show with Mike Harmon weekdays at ten pm Eastern, seven
pm Pacific, where at Smith welcome back in. We're running
up that hill for the final time to night and
for this week, Mike Carmon, Ryan Hollins with you Smith
somewhere that it's like the bat signal just went up
and he went, no, not that song again. Thanks mayor. Hey,
(30:15):
it's time for the Progressive play of the night. Progressive
making things even easier to help you bundle your home
and car insurance together so you could save on both.
Learn more at Progressive dot com or one eight hundred Progressive.
We tie things together with the Slim Reaper, the.
Speaker 3 (30:30):
Ravle, the basket, all on the drive, take them all away.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
In Plam Bam flam. Heyde, if you don't like it,
don't watch it. Eighty nine year old Al McCoy retiring.
He's there on the Sun's radio network. Sons get there
there marking the the winner's column. So now it's two
to one in that series. Ryan Tomorrow, we were talking
(30:53):
about the games on tap the undercard. We've got the
Nicks and the Heat talking to Todd Furman base down
the line, the expectation, Jimmy Butler will give it the
old college try. What are you anticipating there?
Speaker 3 (31:08):
I like the Heat. Obviously you're gonna assume Jimmy Butler plays,
and even if he even if he just gets on
the floor and he's not one hundred percent, his presence
will be enough.
Speaker 4 (31:19):
And here's the reality.
Speaker 3 (31:20):
I don't think the Knicks had played great, and we
talked about it earlier in the show. In that game too,
they didn't look good and Miami had a chance to
go ahead and get that win, and that just it
would have been just devastating if they were able to
get a win without Jimmy Butler. And what's scary when
you watching the Miami Heat versus the Knicks. They could
be down four or five points and they feel like
(31:42):
they can just hit this switch and still end up
winning the game.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
Just like the Golden State Warriors. They come to Los
Angeles Lakers again to get in almost five hundred bucks.
Laker crowd, you expect better from ad do the Lakers
hold serve at home?
Speaker 3 (31:58):
I do, are going to play with a lot of
energy at home. Golden State is going to be better.
There's nothing going to be easy about the game. But
I think the role players as a whole, their defensive
identity will be there. And the Lakers also do a
better job at home of running, getting out in transition
and getting easy opportunities, and that will benefit Anthony Davis.
Speaker 2 (32:21):
Now I saw a report tie it together because we
had the highlight the progressive player of the day of
the Slim Reaper Kevin Durant. A report out of Australia
that you will pass on the highways and byways of life.
Thirty six murderers in your life.
Speaker 3 (32:37):
Oh my gosh.
Speaker 2 (32:39):
Now you're thinking about people you worked with, maybe some
people in your family, maybe the giving folks the side eye.
It really takes out a whole different thing when you
start pondering that. Now there's a deep dive on the
psychological profiles or whatever, if you want to go down there.
But just the numbers. Thirty six, which means number thirty
seven is an unlucky number. Frostburg thirty seven, It is
(33:02):
an unlucky number. I got it and I was listening
life our daily. I just didn't life. That's a whole
other world. Just walking the walls, the halls here. I'm
glad I called that guy. Let me tell you uh
for Frostburg and ty Shirt Patrick in the back our
(33:26):
guy Steve Desager, Mike Harmon alongside Ryan Hollins. Had a blast.
Ryan will do it again on Tuesday. Enjoy the games,
make those notes. Bernie Fratto coming up here, taking it
into the night. Yeah, I bet your Friday Night just
changed America. How I love you all, so you get soon.
Pets
Hosts And Creators
Jason Smith
Mike Harmon
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!