October 21, 2023 • 27 mins
Jason Smith and Mike Harmon give you their Upset Specials of the week. Vegas Insider Todd Fuhrman swings by for all the Week 7 NFL odds. Plus, the Progressive play of the night!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Thanks for listening to The Jason Smith Show with Mike
Harmon podcast. Be sure to catch us live every weeknight
ten pm to two am Eastern seven to eleven pm
Pacific on Fox Sports Radio. Find your local station for
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Speaker 2 (00:22):
Please give this you're listening to Fox Sports Radio.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
Greetings and welcome inside the Jason Smith Show with my
bes friend Mike Harmon. Lie livethtirerac dot com Studios, tirerac
dot com. I'll help you get there an unmatched selection,
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(00:52):
So we'll get to our upset special picks in a
couple of minutes. But I gotta tell you what happened
to me today, Mike at the dog park, not the
dog track dog part.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
Well, I mean, if the dog dog track, how.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
Depressing is that phrase? You know, I was out at
the dog track. That's just say you've never been to
a dog track. No, I've never never been to a
dog a dog track. It's dog races. The dogs racing.
You bet on them. No, that's not legal, right it
used to be.
Speaker 4 (01:20):
You can't fight him.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
No, no, no, he's racing. They're just racing around.
Speaker 4 (01:24):
They chased after a fake rabbit.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
Yeah, yeah, they but they put a rabbit on the
on the rail and it goes all the way around.
Speaker 4 (01:30):
Rabbit that the dog.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
You guy, say hi to Michael Vick the dog all see,
we were going there, but you decided to go there.
It was too soon, too soon. Uh So I go
to the dog park today. I go to the dog
parts today and I'm sitting down and you know, I'm
letting Benny play, and Benny plays with all the dogs,
and I decide, okay, now it's time I can get
on my phone and call my friend stuff. Because you know,
Benny's pretty self sufficient when when he sees friends, he
(01:53):
loves it, loves it, loves it. So I call one
of my friends and he's a big Steelers fan, and
I get his voice, so I just leave a crazy
message like I normally.
Speaker 4 (02:02):
Talked about how much you hate Kenny picture.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
Jenny Pick it stinks and I said, I just said, ah, hi,
this is Cooper Cup. I just want to let you
know I'm going to catch seventy five passes on Sunday
and we're gonna beat you guys by twenty points. I'll
talk to you later.
Speaker 4 (02:14):
I might be able to get him to do that
on cameo or something.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
Oh, I could be. I could be. So I just
leave that and I and I hang up, and and
and uh, that's because my friend knows it's me and
it'll call me back. And I'm sitting I'm sitting on
the bench and all of a sudden, the guy and
there's a guy sitting about I know, five feet away
from me, And of a sudden he goes, uh, you're
not You're not really Cooper Cup, are you? And I said,
go God, bless you for thinking I was Cooper Cup.
Speaker 4 (02:38):
Blind.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
Well, I was wearing a hat, so there was that.
Speaker 4 (02:42):
Yeah, because that because that solves it all.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
I was wearing a hat and I was sitting down
so I can see or I could be mistaken for
Cooper Cup. Really, yeah, sure, why not? Hey when I'm
sitting up. When I'm sitting down in a movie, sometimes
people go, hey, Cooper, can you move up now? Yeah, sure,
no problem, no problem, And they meant Cooper Manning, you know.
And the thing is, it's not like I was dressed
like in rams gear, like I was wearing a Cooper
Cup jersey or anything. The guys, you know, you're not
(03:05):
really Cooper Cup, are you? And I say, dude, God
bless you for thinking I'm Cooper.
Speaker 4 (03:09):
Nobody heard you screaming that, yeah.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
Donald than Aaron do. So I'm okay with that. I'm okay.
Do you have Aaron Donald's money. I want Aaron Donald's money,
that's for sure. I want that.
Speaker 4 (03:20):
No.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
No, they're not very smart at the dog park, are they.
Speaker 4 (03:23):
Boy.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
I gotta say, I want to go hang out at
your dog park.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
I should have said yes I am, Yes, I am.
And you could take this to the bank. We're gonna
beat the Steelers by thirty. Bet everything you have on it,
bet your house. And you tell him Cooper Cup told
you to bet you.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
Wind Park said number ten they give out free Ayahuasca
dog park.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Well I did. I did tell him that. I did
tell he spends funny you said, I did tell myself. Well,
ten was my number and you know when I when
I played sports, because it was and he was like, oh.
At that point, he's like I just don't want to
talk to this guy. I'm embarrassed, and I thought he
it's Cooper Cup. So we talked for a couple of
minutes about foot ball and everything else.
Speaker 4 (04:01):
Football would want you to run a round or I.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
Got good Hey, Hey, I got good hands. I always
had good hands the Mountain. No, no, you, I always
had good hands, man, I was. I was possession receiver
this dog poop? Hey, Cooper, what you get that dog
poop from the ground to go? Let me see let
me see how he dick stertus. You are with your
hands and throw that away. Dude thought I was Cooper Cup. Man,
(04:26):
that's pretty cool.
Speaker 4 (04:27):
That's pretty good.
Speaker 1 (04:28):
Yeahjat away from dog parks with people that are doing drugs.
I could have taken a picture with him and he
would have put on social media. Hey guess who pretend
to do at the dog park? Cooper Cup? But the
right did you not run with that? I don't think
that guy's eyes work too good.
Speaker 4 (04:43):
Taken that as far as you possibly cool?
Speaker 1 (04:46):
Well, because I was just so pleased that the guy
thought I was Cooper Cup. No, I was funny.
Speaker 3 (04:52):
That was you know something for America's Funniest Home Videos,
got a call back to Carlton.
Speaker 4 (04:57):
Did he like Steve Me.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
From Big down People to kill Cooper Cup across the
low teens. Well, there's there's times in my life where
I feel like, man, if I had just been more
ready for anything at that moment, I would have I
would have acted differently. But I wasn't expecting someone to
say to me, are you aren't Cooper Cup? Are you?
Speaker 4 (05:15):
So?
Speaker 1 (05:15):
I mean, I if I thought I could get out,
like if I thought maybe I looked like him, and
I said, Cooper Cup, Oh okay.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
I mean, you have the opportunity that you know that
was gonna happen since you were heard screaming into someone's phone. Yeah,
I think you were a Cooper Cup and you were
gonna kick their ass.
Speaker 1 (05:31):
I should have told him yeah, and the guy would
put on social media. So I'm sitting next to Cooper Cup.
He just called a friend of his who plays for
the Steelers and said they were gonna win by seventy
five points and he was going to catch twenty.
Speaker 3 (05:41):
Paths, lay the points, take the individual prop bet parley.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
That's really out of shape for in season. Well, I
was sitting down again, I was sitting down. I was
sitting down and and that is sitting a pounds. Uh yes,
actually no, no, no, no, no, I was. I was wearing
very flo very flattering top and uh sweating too, tom
or yes, very flat? What is this nineteen seventy six
(06:08):
winning a top? What you look like?
Speaker 4 (06:10):
Hey? Tube tops are back? Baby? No, no, no, no, no,
let's go.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
Oh no no, no, I'm not. I'm only ever putting Jason
in a tub top in the same sentence. Ever.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
Again, I wasn't trying to go there. I was diverting
it back into the general populace.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
Is wrong with you. I'm gonna too Hey, everybody, boy, Hey,
Cooper Cup has let himself go a little bit. Yeah,
I'm just gonna get a cheeseburger right now. I was
gonna go have that right now. I'm Cooper.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
He's sitting there eating one of those shakes that he
sent a picture.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Cooper Cup. No, I think I was drinking a die
Coke probably, Yeah, you know die coke. Gotta gotta gotta
watch your body, you know, I gotta gotta watch you,
gotta watch everything. Gotta be ready to go on Sunday.
Steelers gonna be tough man. We're very very difficult. You
tell everybody, You tell everybody. Cooper Cup said that, you
tell him. Cooper Cup said, send the kids over here.
Cooper Cups got a couple of words for him.
Speaker 3 (06:55):
About, you know, dedication and fighting back from injuries and adversity.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
And I bet if I pulled up to your dog
parking in Tesla and they think I'm Elon Musky. Yes,
this is Elon right here? Yeah, just where that because
he always if you had a bowt tie on, because
that picture of it was always him in the bowtie tuxedo.
I wouldn't they would have thought, they would have thought
you were Elon Musk. Sure you just had to get
Kenny Rosenthal. I got plent and you would have show.
You would have got a your phone and say, look
see I have Twitter on my phone. I'm Elon Musk.
(07:22):
It's it's on my phone right there. That's who I
am right here. You can easily have got you.
Speaker 4 (07:27):
I just suspended your account.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
What's your name? And you're off Twitter? Sorry about that? Sorry,
I gotta pay it. You have to pay a dollar
to get back on. How do you feel about that?
Speaker 4 (07:37):
Okay? With that?
Speaker 1 (07:38):
You're paying a dollar to get back on unbelievable.
Speaker 4 (07:41):
Everybody's good.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
Everybody knew to Twitter. Yeah, I was almost Cooper Cup. Man,
that was kind of fun. That was kind of fun.
Cooper Cup. Jason Smith. Okay, yeah, hey they could be brothers. Yeah,
they're very they're very close, right, I mean, it's that's
pretty cool.
Speaker 4 (07:55):
He says.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
He stares at a picture Cup and just kind of
laughs because Yeah.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Jason Smith
Show with Mike Harmon weekdays at ten pm Eastern, seven
pm Pacific.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
Jason Smith Mike Harmon live in theati rag dot com Studios,
Phone numbers eight seven, seven ninety nine on Fox. Mike
and I do this every week. Not not pretend that
we're Cooper Cup, but we give your upset special picks. Well,
that's true, give your upset special picks in the NFL
every single week. Mike, Why don't you kick us off,
we each have two games, talk about what you got
(08:29):
for us.
Speaker 4 (08:30):
Let's get it on.
Speaker 3 (08:31):
As we get started here in well, let's just go
to the biggest game of the week, Philadelphia two and
a half point favorites at home Miami coming in prove
it grounds for Bolt squads. Philly's still smarting from the
loss and everybody suddenly having those giant question marks over
their heads. You know, he Jalen Hurts and Brock Purty
(08:51):
suddenly can't play quarterback. There are some you know cracks there.
Aj Brown has been chirping a little bit to the
point where they went and brought in Julio Jones. Run
game hasn't been as effective and efficient the last couple
of weeks. We saw DeAndre Swift shutdown. So for Miami
on the other side, it's most Shirt and it's the
(09:12):
high octane duo of Hill and Waddle. Hill gets himself
over the thousand yard mark this week. As that offense
continues to roll.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
I'm gonna go with a team that is good ish
for my first game ish. Yeah, they're not good, they're
kind of good ish. Give me the Falcons getting three
over the Bucks, right, Yeah. I like Atlanta a little
bit more than other people do. I like Desmond Ritter
a little bit more than other people do. Look, Atlanta
needs to find their identity. They have a lot of
(09:44):
guys on offense. They got to spread the ball around too, right,
you have two running backs that need the football, including
the guy you took in the first round. You have
two tight ends who need the football, including John new Smith.
Somebody has become wow, look at this guy. You got
a couple of receivers, Drake London starting to get a
little bit more involved week after. I like them, you know.
And Tampa Bay is a team that looked like they
(10:04):
were really good and suddenly they lose one game to
the Lions, and it's Baker Mayfield's not the guy. He's
not the answer. We had to look someplace else. It's
like they were waiting for a game like this to
fall apart. So in a situation like this, give me Atlanta,
who is trending upward and can start making some noise
in that division because it is a bad division. I
think they see that, hey, we have a lot of
young talent in place. They will spray the football around
(10:27):
enough again on Sunday, they win this game twenty to seventeen.
I'll take the three points. I'm not gonna need him,
but I'll take him.
Speaker 3 (10:34):
Mike Carmen all John new Smith had to get what
you do is get out of New England, and he
rediscovered his form.
Speaker 4 (10:41):
How about that?
Speaker 3 (10:42):
New England taunts me because the game's only eight Buffalo
at eight point favorite at New England. But they've stung
me multiple times, so I'm not going anywhere near that.
I'm gonna take the aforementioned Pittsburgh Steelers to return the
phone call to Cooper Cup going.
Speaker 4 (11:00):
Plus three here at.
Speaker 3 (11:02):
SOFI Stadium, Tomlin coming out of the BI week, No
friar move.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
TJ.
Speaker 3 (11:07):
Watts still a little banged up. That's a little unnerving,
but that pass rush is still pretty good. Defense playing
decent football overall. Jalen Warren starting to get more touches.
Najee Harris not the impact player they anticipated. I don't
know what Deontay Johnson brings to the mix, but he
is one more target for Kenny Pickett to work to,
(11:28):
so opportunities to spread the ball around against a RAMS
secondary that can be had.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
I'll tell you, man, the Steelers you're talking about Deontay
Johnson coming back like he's gonna save us, He's gonna
save this offense. Deontay Johnson's the guy we're missing. It's like,
well but here.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
Here's what it gets to do, though, is that you
know you get one of your projected starters, projected leaders,
right he along with Pickens, but it's one fewer excuse
for Matt Canada to keep his job if it doesn't
work now that he's back.
Speaker 1 (12:00):
My second game, give me the Giants plus three over Washington.
Look to Rod Taylor getting it done. It doesn't matter
if it's Daniel Jones or Torod Taylor. There's an outside
chance that Daniel Jones could play. I'm expecting to Rod Taylor.
This seems like a bit of gamesman ship from Brian
Dable to go, Hey, gonna make you prepare for both quarterbacks.
(12:21):
But it seems like what I've been what I've been
seeing and hearing, it's gonna wind up being Torod Taylor.
But it doesn't matter because what this game is gonna be. Look,
it's a gut check game for the Giants. They nearly
pulled off the big upset last week. Had they maybe
kicked that field goal at the end of the first half,
the end of that game is different and they win
the game. But this is a game where the Giant
strengths match up with what Washington has to work on
(12:42):
the most, and that is Sam Howell, not turned who's
been pretty good like Sam Awl's been good, better than expected.
The guy gets hot he kind of rids me a
Carson Palmer when Carson Palmer was good. Oh right, sorry,
Carson Wentz when Carson Wentz was good. But the one
thing they do, he turns the ball over and he
gets sacked a lot. And the Giant defensive line is
the strength of that team. This is one of those
(13:03):
games where the Giants D line controls it. Sam Howell
gives them the football a couple of times. I still
like the under in this one. But give me the
Giants seventeen thirteen. Maybe a little bit of one. Delle
Robinson having a big game offensively or a big itch
game for the Giants, but the Giants D line does it.
Give me them plus three. I'm not gonna need the points,
but I'll take them.
Speaker 3 (13:23):
Yeah, maybe a little bit of help. Also that there's
a lot of chatter in DC over that defensive front,
maybe trading away one or more parts right, either Young
or Sweat, getting Delta away. Maybe maybe that's just enough
to where all right, I advantage Giants. Although clock management,
I don't think they took your core Shet. That's an
out season.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
I got them both. They are yeah, Dable and and
Torod Taylor twenty five grand apiece that.
Speaker 4 (13:49):
Already carell to Rod Taylor's gonna show up.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
No, he kind of has to. He kind of has to.
He kind of has to. I got it both. I
got fit and then I got so I got got
some money coming in already.
Speaker 4 (13:57):
Mike, I like it, but you got to keep those
revenue streams.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
I like definitely a terran Aya. That's a great place.
That's awesome.
Speaker 2 (14:03):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Jason Smith
Show with Mike Harmon weekdays at ten pm Eastern, seven
pm Pacific.
Speaker 1 (14:10):
This is Creed, Yes, this is Creed, Creed versus Nickelback?
Speaker 5 (14:13):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (14:14):
Now do the Rangers one ban all Cowboys players from games?
Speaker 4 (14:19):
Dak was there? And do they get rid of Creed
and trade up for Nickelback?
Speaker 1 (14:23):
No, you can't. You gotta you're dancing with Creed. You
gotta dance with Ubrunya. You gotta stick with Creed. Okay,
I respect that snag. It's not Cree's fault that you
couldn't close out a four to two lead in the
ninth inning.
Speaker 4 (14:33):
You know it's a fair point.
Speaker 1 (14:34):
Can't blame Scott's stap not his fault. To Jason Smith
Show with My best friend Mike Harmon. Well, I from
tire rack dot Com Studios. Big Day in College Football
tomorrow NFL on Sunday. You know where you gotta go.
We gotta go to Vegas.
Speaker 4 (14:49):
Let's go.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
Longtime friend of the show, former odds maker at Caesar's.
Check out his Bet the Board podcast. Also you see
him on CBS. It is Todd Furman on Twitter. Add
Todd Furman?
Speaker 4 (15:03):
Todd?
Speaker 1 (15:03):
What's happening, Bud?
Speaker 4 (15:04):
How are you?
Speaker 5 (15:05):
I'm doing well this fine evening, gentlemen. Hopefully you boys
are holding off over there just the same.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
Yeah, because I'm worried about you, because I think you
couldn't wind up losing a lot of money when the
Jets win the Super Bowl, because all those bets are
going to come true.
Speaker 5 (15:17):
Now, Hey, I mean, look, the team decided to get
it all together defensively, put together one of the better
halfs we saw last week in the second half against Philadelphia.
Completely clamped down on that offense. But I think one
thing we've seen from this Jets defense, even as banged
up as they were, they at least are forcing turnovers.
And in this day and age, that's what you have
to do as an elite defense create a shortfield or two.
(15:37):
Zach Wilson and company reaping the benefits, and we'll see
if they can keep some of this momentum going out
of the bye week next Sunday.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
Since you talked about the defense playing well, Todd, something
I've seen you in the world of X and Twitter
and certainly on the Bet the Board podcast. I know
you go into it a little deeper, but the primer
based on everybody reacting to the plethora of unders last week.
Speaker 4 (16:00):
How much did the market correct?
Speaker 5 (16:02):
I mean, we're seeing some of the lowest totals that
we've seen in quite a long time in the league,
and we look at the NFL both side in totals,
and it is the epitome of an efficient market. So
if you see a rash of games coming in under,
you're going to get shorter and shorter numbers to try
and see that trend continue. I mean, we saw a
number last week close right in that thirty five and
a half thirty six range between the forty nine ers
(16:24):
in Cleveland, and I don't think anybody would describe that
game as attract me. But it doesn't take that much
to go over some of these short totals so we'll
see if there is a little bit of market correction
after that twelve to two to one week that we
saw last week. But you look at some of the
overall offensive numbers. League is averaging five point two yards
per play this season, the fewest three week six going
all the way back to two thousand and six. We've
(16:45):
also seen the fewest touchdowns scored coming into this week
at four and at four hundred and twenty eight excuse
me over the last thirteen years, and games averaged just
thirty six point seven total points per game in Week six,
the few within any week since twenty fourteen. So the
under trend won't continue. But I'm not here to promise
that all of a sudden we're going to see offensive explosions.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
Wow, look at you all right now, tell me the odds,
because let's get this out of the way before Charman
submarines me with it and you with it after. What
do you think the odds would be if I told
you that at a dog park today a guy mistook
me for Cooper Cup, What would the odds be? What
would the odds?
Speaker 5 (17:21):
I don't think we could put enough heroes on the
end of that particular predicament, it might be the same
odds as a Syracuse Orangeman winning a college football national
championship over the next decade, Oh Todd.
Speaker 3 (17:32):
In the decade we've been doing this show, Smith and I,
there have been a lot of stories, a lot of
little one offs, he and I in our day to
day lives. I don't know that there's ever been a
period where myself, ty Shirt and Frostburg have had that
pause to where there's no response. As he tried to
lay out the fact that the guy might have thought
(17:53):
for a moment that he was Cooper Cup.
Speaker 5 (17:55):
I mean, I think the biggest question you have to
ask here is could that guy see more than two
feet in front of his face? Smith? Is that you
realize the question that we have to answer if he
was using a walker or a stick to make sure
he didn't bump int any items. It's an instant question
of credibility.
Speaker 1 (18:09):
Hey, I have good hands and I can elocute very well.
The guy could have been Cooper Cup for a minute.
It's okay, And Hey, I was sitting down.
Speaker 5 (18:16):
I was sitting Look, we can all live in fantasy
worlds and try and allow the world to believe certain
things but I mean the reality of it is, I'm
going to have to question that gentleman's merits and hopefully
he wasn't getting behind the wheel of a car to
drive his dog home from that dog park.
Speaker 1 (18:30):
All right, So, speaking of questioning merits here, we've talked
a lot tonight about Penn State Ohio State tomorrow. How
good are these teams? Really? Their defenses are very good.
Offensively seem to be doing just enough. How do you
see this game?
Speaker 5 (18:43):
You know, metrically, I mean, both teams amongst the best
in the country from a points per game standpoint and
yards per play. But Ohio State, in my opinion, has
been a little bit more tested than what we've seen
on the Penn State side. But Penn State has done
what do good teams do. They exceed Oddsmaker's expectations, and
they've done so for more than a calendar year. You
have to go all the way back to last year's
game against Michigan to find the last time they came
(19:05):
up against it with the points spread in question. But
the one thing that I'm concerned about with Penn State
offensively going into a venue like this is they haven't
shown a knack for making the big play. You look
at Nicholas Singleton and k Tron Allen, both averaging hundred
five yards per carry, a very dynamic candem in the backfield.
They're outside the top one hundred and big play rate
and when you played Delaware, West Virginia Northwestern Illinois not
(19:27):
exactly a murderer's row of opposing defenses. So we'll see
if they can move the football methodically. But on the
other side, Ohio States had a banged up running back
room and they're barely inside the top one hundred in
terms of rushing yards per game, something that we haven't
grown accustom to. So I think this game could start
slow with a feeling out process. But we'll see which
team decides to abandon the run and think that they
can hit a few chunk yardage plays in the passing game.
(19:50):
Knowing what's at stake in the Big.
Speaker 3 (19:51):
Ten East Todd here in Los Angeles, panic, heartbreak, and
a lot of anger, a lot of emotions rolling around
after USC gets stumped a week ago seven point favorites
at home against Utah. Is Utah's defense good enough to
offset the offensive shortcomings or can that offense actually take
(20:13):
advantage of USC two I don't.
Speaker 5 (20:15):
Think Utah's offense is going to do a whole heck
of a lot in this game. It's more a question
of if USC can get on track offensively, and we've
seen some extremely sluggish starts, not just last week in
South Bend where they turned the ball over a multitude
of times and found themselves behind the eight ball just
thirty minutes into the game, but even against the Arizonas
of the World Arizona States, you can't get off to
(20:35):
that kind of start against the team that's as offensively
challenged as Utah is. If USC puts together a couple
good drives early and the UTA have to abandon the
ground game, I think that's the perfect blueprint. But you
look at the way this game has been bet. The
total from fifty six down as low as fifty one
and a half says that Utah's defense will be able
to hold its own. I don't think the Utes can
exploit some of the defensive deficiencies for USC, but there's
(20:58):
no doubt this is a real gut check for the Trojans, who,
while they may have been saddled with a non conference laws,
still control their own destiny in the PAC twelve and
Caleb Williams has to put all those boo birds aside
and go out there, get back to some of the
basics and clean up the mechanics that really plague some
poor decision making last week against the Irish.
Speaker 1 (21:14):
Vegas Insider Todd Furman our guest here, Jason Smith Mike
Harmon live from the tirec dot Com studios. All right,
so before we get into specific games in the NFL,
you had a bit this week on Twitter. You talked
about scoring being down across the NFL. Does that have
any kind of effect on you and when it comes
to making lines for over unders or for whatever bet
(21:35):
you're putting out there, or is this something where it's like, hey,
we can't keep banking on the fact that scores are
going to be down, spoints are going to go up eventually.
How do you deal with something like that? With a
trend like that, when scores are down for a decent amount.
Speaker 5 (21:46):
Of time, you begin to dig into some of the
numbers and try and figure out why that might be
the case. And there are a couple of theories out there.
When you look at some of the defensive penalties, an
increase in defensive holding, a legal contact and more so
than pass interfering, So some of those thirty and forty
yard chunk plays become just a five yard variety. You've
seen a deterioration and offensive line play as well, and
(22:07):
we know when you look at historical data, anytime a
team takes a holding penalty, that is as big a
drive killer as you're going to find in the NFL,
given how difficult it is to try and recover when
you get behind the down and distance. But the other
thing is too, I know a lot of people from
a fantasy side, you start to get a little bit
more concerned teams are moving the football between the twenties.
They're just bogging down in the red zone. So in
(22:28):
a PPR league, you're looking for players that can get
their volume of catches and yardage because those touchdowns just
aren't there at the same high volume. But it really
is a copycat league. And as you continue to try
and look at some of these NFL teams and what
they're doing defensively, somewhere along the way, these offenses are
going to make adjustments and they're going to find a
way to turn long drives from threes into seven. I'm
(22:49):
just not quite sure, when Rubbert meets the.
Speaker 3 (22:50):
Road one of the big games of the week, we've
got a trio that kind of stand on. So we
look at the Chargers on the road at Kansas City,
Herbert with a number of misfires this last week in
a winnable game against the Cowboys, Kansas City's offense not clicking.
But they did bring back Mekle Hardman, So that's going
(23:11):
to solve.
Speaker 5 (23:11):
Every day that jun Jets You yeah, I mean, look,
Kansas City, to your point, harm offensively has not found
a rhythm. We know what Patrick Mahomes can do. We
know how dynamic Travis Kelsey is, but when you look
to try and identify some of the other receivers to
create more balance, the big plays really haven't been there.
But I think what people are sleeping on right now
for the Chiefs is how good they've been on the
(23:32):
defensive side of the wall, and it makes them an
extremely difficult and dangerous out the deeper we get into
the season. Chris Jones has been a massive force along
the defensive line, and Charles Omenahu returns from a suspension.
He may be on a snap count, but I think
he's another player that can get after opposing quarterbacks, and
if you're not going to give up more than twenty
point one points in a game, it's obviously a recipe
(23:53):
for success to win football games. At the same time,
the Chargers haven't exactly been scared to go to Arrowhead.
They've won their three times in the last you seven
to ten years. And you look at how close these
games have been over the last five meetings or six,
I should say, only one of them has been decided
by six points or more and that was the Travis
Kelcey overtime catch against the Chargers in Los Angeles in
(24:16):
a thirty four to twenty eight decision. So I think
the Chargers know their season hangs in the balance, even
on a short week. I think they're live underdogs. You
just hope that they're going to do a few things
to shore up their protection schemes that haven't quite been
there the last two weeks without Corey Linsley tod I know.
Speaker 1 (24:30):
Two of the games spent a lot of time talking
about and about the board podcast Lions and the Ravens.
My Lions because I picked the lines to go to
the Super Bowl and Miami in Philadelphia. Let's deal with
Lions Ravens. First, this is a huge get. Like, I
think people will start believing in the Lions if they
win this game. Two really tough defenses. Look, the Lions
defense doesn't get the credit it deserves for what they've
(24:50):
done against the run so far. How do you see
this game?
Speaker 5 (24:53):
I think people should believe in the Lions already. To
be quite honest, I'm not sure this is necessarily game
or they have to go out there and prove a
whole heck of a lot. When you look at the
landscape of the NFC, it's Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Detroit
probably a half kick behind right now. Maybe with the
Cowboys as they get there, you know, stuff together. But
you look at Detroit a difficult travel spot. Going back
(25:14):
on the road for the second straight week, the conditions
may be a little bit more difficult to navigate through.
For Jared Goff that what he dealt with last week
in Tampa. And I also think the absence of David
Montgomery changes what this team can do to create balance.
Jamiir Gibbs doesn't give them that same power back that
can run between the tackles. I don't think Craig Reynolds
does either. Should he be available for this game. And Baltimore,
(25:35):
you know, you look at what they did last Sunday
against the Tennessee Titans. That final score rather misleading. I
mean they drove the ball at will against the Titans,
just bogged down in the red zone, going one of six.
If they turn any of those into touchdowns, you're looking
at Baltimore more than a field goal favorite. But this
has been a true battle in the betting market. You
see respected opinions on both sides of the equation, and
a very similar scenario in folding with Miami and Philly,
(25:57):
with the Eagles just shy of a field goal favorite
at a lot of books. Philadelphia should be able to
do enough with their defensive line to at least take
away some of the explosive big play potential in the
ground game, but Miami will hit their big pass plays
over the top. No Reed Blakenship in the back end.
This Eagle secondary has been a lot more vulnerable this
year than they were in the past. And we'll see
if Philadelphia offensively can make sure that they show some
(26:19):
more consistency because they put together a long time consuming drive,
but they haven't necessarily been as prolific on that side
of the ball as they were last year. But it
should be a big game for DeAndre Swift because Miami
typically goes a little lighter box. I think Philadelphia I'll
be able to take advantage running the.
Speaker 4 (26:35):
Football, all right, The last one really quick. The MVP odds.
Speaker 3 (26:39):
Jason Smith is now creating a full Heisman like campaign
for Jared Goff.
Speaker 4 (26:44):
What say you?
Speaker 5 (26:46):
I think golf is a little more that he's got
to prove out there now. He's going to have an
excellent chance over the back half of the schedule to
really go out there and accumulate stats. But for me,
I'm not sure I can make a case for golf
because I think this is as much a Ben Johnson
creation as much as anything else. He has been outstanding
getting the most out of some of the Lions personnel.
Speaker 4 (27:05):
You know.
Speaker 5 (27:05):
For me, it still runs through Western New York, and
I think when you look at what Josh Allen's going
to be asked to do for the Buffalo Bills, given
how banged up they are on the FENSA side, if
I was betting into that market right now, I know
it's not the sexiest pick when you bet a guy
with relatively short odds, but I think Josh Allen has
all the opportunities in the world to go out there
and be MVP this season.
Speaker 1 (27:26):
You can follow on Twitter at Todd Furman. That is
at Todd Furman. Check out the rest of the bet
to Board podcast Todd as always, Buddy, appreciate it. Man.
We'll talk to you next week.
Speaker 5 (27:35):
You got it, gentlemen, have a great weekend.
Speaker 4 (27:36):
Thanks
Thanks for listening to The Jason Smith Show with Mike
Harmon podcast. Be sure to catch us live every weeknight
ten pm to two am Eastern seven to eleven pm
Pacific on Fox Sports Radio. Find your local station for
The Jason Smith Show with Mike Harmon at Foxsports Radio
dot com, or stream us live every night on the
iHeartRadio app by searching FSR.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Please give this you're listening to Fox Sports Radio.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
Greetings and welcome inside the Jason Smith Show with my
bes friend Mike Harmon. Lie livethtirerac dot com Studios, tirerac
dot com. I'll help you get there an unmatched selection,
fast free shipping, free roadhazard protection, and over ten thousand
recommended installers tirack dot com the way hire buying should be.
(00:52):
So we'll get to our upset special picks in a
couple of minutes. But I gotta tell you what happened
to me today, Mike at the dog park, not the
dog track dog part.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
Well, I mean, if the dog dog track, how.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
Depressing is that phrase? You know, I was out at
the dog track. That's just say you've never been to
a dog track. No, I've never never been to a
dog a dog track. It's dog races. The dogs racing.
You bet on them. No, that's not legal, right it
used to be.
Speaker 4 (01:20):
You can't fight him.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
No, no, no, he's racing. They're just racing around.
Speaker 4 (01:24):
They chased after a fake rabbit.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
Yeah, yeah, they but they put a rabbit on the
on the rail and it goes all the way around.
Speaker 4 (01:30):
Rabbit that the dog.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
You guy, say hi to Michael Vick the dog all see,
we were going there, but you decided to go there.
It was too soon, too soon. Uh So I go
to the dog park today. I go to the dog
parts today and I'm sitting down and you know, I'm
letting Benny play, and Benny plays with all the dogs,
and I decide, okay, now it's time I can get
on my phone and call my friend stuff. Because you know,
Benny's pretty self sufficient when when he sees friends, he
(01:53):
loves it, loves it, loves it. So I call one
of my friends and he's a big Steelers fan, and
I get his voice, so I just leave a crazy
message like I normally.
Speaker 4 (02:02):
Talked about how much you hate Kenny picture.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
Jenny Pick it stinks and I said, I just said, ah, hi,
this is Cooper Cup. I just want to let you
know I'm going to catch seventy five passes on Sunday
and we're gonna beat you guys by twenty points. I'll
talk to you later.
Speaker 4 (02:14):
I might be able to get him to do that
on cameo or something.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
Oh, I could be. I could be. So I just
leave that and I and I hang up, and and
and uh, that's because my friend knows it's me and
it'll call me back. And I'm sitting I'm sitting on
the bench and all of a sudden, the guy and
there's a guy sitting about I know, five feet away
from me, And of a sudden he goes, uh, you're
not You're not really Cooper Cup, are you? And I said,
go God, bless you for thinking I was Cooper Cup.
Speaker 4 (02:38):
Blind.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
Well, I was wearing a hat, so there was that.
Speaker 4 (02:42):
Yeah, because that because that solves it all.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
I was wearing a hat and I was sitting down
so I can see or I could be mistaken for
Cooper Cup. Really, yeah, sure, why not? Hey when I'm
sitting up. When I'm sitting down in a movie, sometimes
people go, hey, Cooper, can you move up now? Yeah, sure,
no problem, no problem, And they meant Cooper Manning, you know.
And the thing is, it's not like I was dressed
like in rams gear, like I was wearing a Cooper
Cup jersey or anything. The guys, you know, you're not
(03:05):
really Cooper Cup, are you? And I say, dude, God
bless you for thinking I'm Cooper.
Speaker 4 (03:09):
Nobody heard you screaming that, yeah.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
Donald than Aaron do. So I'm okay with that. I'm okay.
Do you have Aaron Donald's money. I want Aaron Donald's money,
that's for sure. I want that.
Speaker 4 (03:20):
No.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
No, they're not very smart at the dog park, are they.
Speaker 4 (03:23):
Boy.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
I gotta say, I want to go hang out at
your dog park.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
I should have said yes I am, Yes, I am.
And you could take this to the bank. We're gonna
beat the Steelers by thirty. Bet everything you have on it,
bet your house. And you tell him Cooper Cup told
you to bet you.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
Wind Park said number ten they give out free Ayahuasca
dog park.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Well I did. I did tell him that. I did
tell he spends funny you said, I did tell myself. Well,
ten was my number and you know when I when
I played sports, because it was and he was like, oh.
At that point, he's like I just don't want to
talk to this guy. I'm embarrassed, and I thought he
it's Cooper Cup. So we talked for a couple of
minutes about foot ball and everything else.
Speaker 4 (04:01):
Football would want you to run a round or I.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
Got good Hey, Hey, I got good hands. I always
had good hands the Mountain. No, no, you, I always
had good hands, man, I was. I was possession receiver
this dog poop? Hey, Cooper, what you get that dog
poop from the ground to go? Let me see let
me see how he dick stertus. You are with your
hands and throw that away. Dude thought I was Cooper Cup. Man,
(04:26):
that's pretty cool.
Speaker 4 (04:27):
That's pretty good.
Speaker 1 (04:28):
Yeahjat away from dog parks with people that are doing drugs.
I could have taken a picture with him and he
would have put on social media. Hey guess who pretend
to do at the dog park? Cooper Cup? But the
right did you not run with that? I don't think
that guy's eyes work too good.
Speaker 4 (04:43):
Taken that as far as you possibly cool?
Speaker 1 (04:46):
Well, because I was just so pleased that the guy
thought I was Cooper Cup. No, I was funny.
Speaker 3 (04:52):
That was you know something for America's Funniest Home Videos,
got a call back to Carlton.
Speaker 4 (04:57):
Did he like Steve Me.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
From Big down People to kill Cooper Cup across the
low teens. Well, there's there's times in my life where
I feel like, man, if I had just been more
ready for anything at that moment, I would have I
would have acted differently. But I wasn't expecting someone to
say to me, are you aren't Cooper Cup? Are you?
Speaker 4 (05:15):
So?
Speaker 1 (05:15):
I mean, I if I thought I could get out,
like if I thought maybe I looked like him, and
I said, Cooper Cup, Oh okay.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
I mean, you have the opportunity that you know that
was gonna happen since you were heard screaming into someone's phone. Yeah,
I think you were a Cooper Cup and you were
gonna kick their ass.
Speaker 1 (05:31):
I should have told him yeah, and the guy would
put on social media. So I'm sitting next to Cooper Cup.
He just called a friend of his who plays for
the Steelers and said they were gonna win by seventy
five points and he was going to catch twenty.
Speaker 3 (05:41):
Paths, lay the points, take the individual prop bet parley.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
That's really out of shape for in season. Well, I
was sitting down again, I was sitting down. I was
sitting down and and that is sitting a pounds. Uh yes,
actually no, no, no, no, no, I was. I was wearing
very flo very flattering top and uh sweating too, tom
or yes, very flat? What is this nineteen seventy six
(06:08):
winning a top? What you look like?
Speaker 4 (06:10):
Hey? Tube tops are back? Baby? No, no, no, no, no,
let's go.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
Oh no no, no, I'm not. I'm only ever putting Jason
in a tub top in the same sentence. Ever.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
Again, I wasn't trying to go there. I was diverting
it back into the general populace.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
Is wrong with you. I'm gonna too Hey, everybody, boy, Hey,
Cooper Cup has let himself go a little bit. Yeah,
I'm just gonna get a cheeseburger right now. I was
gonna go have that right now. I'm Cooper.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
He's sitting there eating one of those shakes that he
sent a picture.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Cooper Cup. No, I think I was drinking a die
Coke probably, Yeah, you know die coke. Gotta gotta gotta
watch your body, you know, I gotta gotta watch you,
gotta watch everything. Gotta be ready to go on Sunday.
Steelers gonna be tough man. We're very very difficult. You
tell everybody, You tell everybody. Cooper Cup said that, you
tell him. Cooper Cup said, send the kids over here.
Cooper Cups got a couple of words for him.
Speaker 3 (06:55):
About, you know, dedication and fighting back from injuries and adversity.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
And I bet if I pulled up to your dog
parking in Tesla and they think I'm Elon Musky. Yes,
this is Elon right here? Yeah, just where that because
he always if you had a bowt tie on, because
that picture of it was always him in the bowtie tuxedo.
I wouldn't they would have thought, they would have thought
you were Elon Musk. Sure you just had to get
Kenny Rosenthal. I got plent and you would have show.
You would have got a your phone and say, look
see I have Twitter on my phone. I'm Elon Musk.
(07:22):
It's it's on my phone right there. That's who I
am right here. You can easily have got you.
Speaker 4 (07:27):
I just suspended your account.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
What's your name? And you're off Twitter? Sorry about that? Sorry,
I gotta pay it. You have to pay a dollar
to get back on. How do you feel about that?
Speaker 4 (07:37):
Okay? With that?
Speaker 1 (07:38):
You're paying a dollar to get back on unbelievable.
Speaker 4 (07:41):
Everybody's good.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
Everybody knew to Twitter. Yeah, I was almost Cooper Cup. Man,
that was kind of fun. That was kind of fun.
Cooper Cup. Jason Smith. Okay, yeah, hey they could be brothers. Yeah,
they're very they're very close, right, I mean, it's that's
pretty cool.
Speaker 4 (07:55):
He says.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
He stares at a picture Cup and just kind of
laughs because Yeah.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Jason Smith
Show with Mike Harmon weekdays at ten pm Eastern, seven
pm Pacific.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
Jason Smith Mike Harmon live in theati rag dot com Studios,
Phone numbers eight seven, seven ninety nine on Fox. Mike
and I do this every week. Not not pretend that
we're Cooper Cup, but we give your upset special picks. Well,
that's true, give your upset special picks in the NFL
every single week. Mike, Why don't you kick us off,
we each have two games, talk about what you got
(08:29):
for us.
Speaker 4 (08:30):
Let's get it on.
Speaker 3 (08:31):
As we get started here in well, let's just go
to the biggest game of the week, Philadelphia two and
a half point favorites at home Miami coming in prove
it grounds for Bolt squads. Philly's still smarting from the
loss and everybody suddenly having those giant question marks over
their heads. You know, he Jalen Hurts and Brock Purty
(08:51):
suddenly can't play quarterback. There are some you know cracks there.
Aj Brown has been chirping a little bit to the
point where they went and brought in Julio Jones. Run
game hasn't been as effective and efficient the last couple
of weeks. We saw DeAndre Swift shutdown. So for Miami
on the other side, it's most Shirt and it's the
(09:12):
high octane duo of Hill and Waddle. Hill gets himself
over the thousand yard mark this week. As that offense
continues to roll.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
I'm gonna go with a team that is good ish
for my first game ish. Yeah, they're not good, they're
kind of good ish. Give me the Falcons getting three
over the Bucks, right, Yeah. I like Atlanta a little
bit more than other people do. I like Desmond Ritter
a little bit more than other people do. Look, Atlanta
needs to find their identity. They have a lot of
(09:44):
guys on offense. They got to spread the ball around too, right,
you have two running backs that need the football, including
the guy you took in the first round. You have
two tight ends who need the football, including John new Smith.
Somebody has become wow, look at this guy. You got
a couple of receivers, Drake London starting to get a
little bit more involved week after. I like them, you know.
And Tampa Bay is a team that looked like they
(10:04):
were really good and suddenly they lose one game to
the Lions, and it's Baker Mayfield's not the guy. He's
not the answer. We had to look someplace else. It's
like they were waiting for a game like this to
fall apart. So in a situation like this, give me Atlanta,
who is trending upward and can start making some noise
in that division because it is a bad division. I
think they see that, hey, we have a lot of
young talent in place. They will spray the football around
(10:27):
enough again on Sunday, they win this game twenty to seventeen.
I'll take the three points. I'm not gonna need him,
but I'll take him.
Speaker 3 (10:34):
Mike Carmen all John new Smith had to get what
you do is get out of New England, and he
rediscovered his form.
Speaker 4 (10:41):
How about that?
Speaker 3 (10:42):
New England taunts me because the game's only eight Buffalo
at eight point favorite at New England. But they've stung
me multiple times, so I'm not going anywhere near that.
I'm gonna take the aforementioned Pittsburgh Steelers to return the
phone call to Cooper Cup going.
Speaker 4 (11:00):
Plus three here at.
Speaker 3 (11:02):
SOFI Stadium, Tomlin coming out of the BI week, No
friar move.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
TJ.
Speaker 3 (11:07):
Watts still a little banged up. That's a little unnerving,
but that pass rush is still pretty good. Defense playing
decent football overall. Jalen Warren starting to get more touches.
Najee Harris not the impact player they anticipated. I don't
know what Deontay Johnson brings to the mix, but he
is one more target for Kenny Pickett to work to,
(11:28):
so opportunities to spread the ball around against a RAMS
secondary that can be had.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
I'll tell you, man, the Steelers you're talking about Deontay
Johnson coming back like he's gonna save us, He's gonna
save this offense. Deontay Johnson's the guy we're missing. It's like,
well but here.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
Here's what it gets to do, though, is that you
know you get one of your projected starters, projected leaders,
right he along with Pickens, but it's one fewer excuse
for Matt Canada to keep his job if it doesn't
work now that he's back.
Speaker 1 (12:00):
My second game, give me the Giants plus three over Washington.
Look to Rod Taylor getting it done. It doesn't matter
if it's Daniel Jones or Torod Taylor. There's an outside
chance that Daniel Jones could play. I'm expecting to Rod Taylor.
This seems like a bit of gamesman ship from Brian
Dable to go, Hey, gonna make you prepare for both quarterbacks.
(12:21):
But it seems like what I've been what I've been
seeing and hearing, it's gonna wind up being Torod Taylor.
But it doesn't matter because what this game is gonna be. Look,
it's a gut check game for the Giants. They nearly
pulled off the big upset last week. Had they maybe
kicked that field goal at the end of the first half,
the end of that game is different and they win
the game. But this is a game where the Giant
strengths match up with what Washington has to work on
(12:42):
the most, and that is Sam Howell, not turned who's
been pretty good like Sam Awl's been good, better than expected.
The guy gets hot he kind of rids me a
Carson Palmer when Carson Palmer was good. Oh right, sorry,
Carson Wentz when Carson Wentz was good. But the one
thing they do, he turns the ball over and he
gets sacked a lot. And the Giant defensive line is
the strength of that team. This is one of those
(13:03):
games where the Giants D line controls it. Sam Howell
gives them the football a couple of times. I still
like the under in this one. But give me the
Giants seventeen thirteen. Maybe a little bit of one. Delle
Robinson having a big game offensively or a big itch
game for the Giants, but the Giants D line does it.
Give me them plus three. I'm not gonna need the points,
but I'll take them.
Speaker 3 (13:23):
Yeah, maybe a little bit of help. Also that there's
a lot of chatter in DC over that defensive front,
maybe trading away one or more parts right, either Young
or Sweat, getting Delta away. Maybe maybe that's just enough
to where all right, I advantage Giants. Although clock management,
I don't think they took your core Shet. That's an
out season.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
I got them both. They are yeah, Dable and and
Torod Taylor twenty five grand apiece that.
Speaker 4 (13:49):
Already carell to Rod Taylor's gonna show up.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
No, he kind of has to. He kind of has to.
He kind of has to. I got it both. I
got fit and then I got so I got got
some money coming in already.
Speaker 4 (13:57):
Mike, I like it, but you got to keep those
revenue streams.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
I like definitely a terran Aya. That's a great place.
That's awesome.
Speaker 2 (14:03):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Jason Smith
Show with Mike Harmon weekdays at ten pm Eastern, seven
pm Pacific.
Speaker 1 (14:10):
This is Creed, Yes, this is Creed, Creed versus Nickelback?
Speaker 5 (14:13):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (14:14):
Now do the Rangers one ban all Cowboys players from games?
Speaker 4 (14:19):
Dak was there? And do they get rid of Creed
and trade up for Nickelback?
Speaker 1 (14:23):
No, you can't. You gotta you're dancing with Creed. You
gotta dance with Ubrunya. You gotta stick with Creed. Okay,
I respect that snag. It's not Cree's fault that you
couldn't close out a four to two lead in the
ninth inning.
Speaker 4 (14:33):
You know it's a fair point.
Speaker 1 (14:34):
Can't blame Scott's stap not his fault. To Jason Smith
Show with My best friend Mike Harmon. Well, I from
tire rack dot Com Studios. Big Day in College Football
tomorrow NFL on Sunday. You know where you gotta go.
We gotta go to Vegas.
Speaker 4 (14:49):
Let's go.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
Longtime friend of the show, former odds maker at Caesar's.
Check out his Bet the Board podcast. Also you see
him on CBS. It is Todd Furman on Twitter. Add
Todd Furman?
Speaker 4 (15:03):
Todd?
Speaker 1 (15:03):
What's happening, Bud?
Speaker 4 (15:04):
How are you?
Speaker 5 (15:05):
I'm doing well this fine evening, gentlemen. Hopefully you boys
are holding off over there just the same.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
Yeah, because I'm worried about you, because I think you
couldn't wind up losing a lot of money when the
Jets win the Super Bowl, because all those bets are
going to come true.
Speaker 5 (15:17):
Now, Hey, I mean, look, the team decided to get
it all together defensively, put together one of the better
halfs we saw last week in the second half against Philadelphia.
Completely clamped down on that offense. But I think one
thing we've seen from this Jets defense, even as banged
up as they were, they at least are forcing turnovers.
And in this day and age, that's what you have
to do as an elite defense create a shortfield or two.
(15:37):
Zach Wilson and company reaping the benefits, and we'll see
if they can keep some of this momentum going out
of the bye week next Sunday.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
Since you talked about the defense playing well, Todd, something
I've seen you in the world of X and Twitter
and certainly on the Bet the Board podcast. I know
you go into it a little deeper, but the primer
based on everybody reacting to the plethora of unders last week.
Speaker 4 (16:00):
How much did the market correct?
Speaker 5 (16:02):
I mean, we're seeing some of the lowest totals that
we've seen in quite a long time in the league,
and we look at the NFL both side in totals,
and it is the epitome of an efficient market. So
if you see a rash of games coming in under,
you're going to get shorter and shorter numbers to try
and see that trend continue. I mean, we saw a
number last week close right in that thirty five and
a half thirty six range between the forty nine ers
(16:24):
in Cleveland, and I don't think anybody would describe that
game as attract me. But it doesn't take that much
to go over some of these short totals so we'll
see if there is a little bit of market correction
after that twelve to two to one week that we
saw last week. But you look at some of the
overall offensive numbers. League is averaging five point two yards
per play this season, the fewest three week six going
all the way back to two thousand and six. We've
(16:45):
also seen the fewest touchdowns scored coming into this week
at four and at four hundred and twenty eight excuse
me over the last thirteen years, and games averaged just
thirty six point seven total points per game in Week six,
the few within any week since twenty fourteen. So the
under trend won't continue. But I'm not here to promise
that all of a sudden we're going to see offensive explosions.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
Wow, look at you all right now, tell me the odds,
because let's get this out of the way before Charman
submarines me with it and you with it after. What
do you think the odds would be if I told
you that at a dog park today a guy mistook
me for Cooper Cup, What would the odds be? What
would the odds?
Speaker 5 (17:21):
I don't think we could put enough heroes on the
end of that particular predicament, it might be the same
odds as a Syracuse Orangeman winning a college football national
championship over the next decade, Oh Todd.
Speaker 3 (17:32):
In the decade we've been doing this show, Smith and I,
there have been a lot of stories, a lot of
little one offs, he and I in our day to
day lives. I don't know that there's ever been a
period where myself, ty Shirt and Frostburg have had that
pause to where there's no response. As he tried to
lay out the fact that the guy might have thought
(17:53):
for a moment that he was Cooper Cup.
Speaker 5 (17:55):
I mean, I think the biggest question you have to
ask here is could that guy see more than two
feet in front of his face? Smith? Is that you
realize the question that we have to answer if he
was using a walker or a stick to make sure
he didn't bump int any items. It's an instant question
of credibility.
Speaker 1 (18:09):
Hey, I have good hands and I can elocute very well.
The guy could have been Cooper Cup for a minute.
It's okay, And Hey, I was sitting down.
Speaker 5 (18:16):
I was sitting Look, we can all live in fantasy
worlds and try and allow the world to believe certain
things but I mean the reality of it is, I'm
going to have to question that gentleman's merits and hopefully
he wasn't getting behind the wheel of a car to
drive his dog home from that dog park.
Speaker 1 (18:30):
All right, So, speaking of questioning merits here, we've talked
a lot tonight about Penn State Ohio State tomorrow. How
good are these teams? Really? Their defenses are very good.
Offensively seem to be doing just enough. How do you
see this game?
Speaker 5 (18:43):
You know, metrically, I mean, both teams amongst the best
in the country from a points per game standpoint and
yards per play. But Ohio State, in my opinion, has
been a little bit more tested than what we've seen
on the Penn State side. But Penn State has done
what do good teams do. They exceed Oddsmaker's expectations, and
they've done so for more than a calendar year. You
have to go all the way back to last year's
game against Michigan to find the last time they came
(19:05):
up against it with the points spread in question. But
the one thing that I'm concerned about with Penn State
offensively going into a venue like this is they haven't
shown a knack for making the big play. You look
at Nicholas Singleton and k Tron Allen, both averaging hundred
five yards per carry, a very dynamic candem in the backfield.
They're outside the top one hundred and big play rate
and when you played Delaware, West Virginia Northwestern Illinois not
(19:27):
exactly a murderer's row of opposing defenses. So we'll see
if they can move the football methodically. But on the
other side, Ohio States had a banged up running back
room and they're barely inside the top one hundred in
terms of rushing yards per game, something that we haven't
grown accustom to. So I think this game could start
slow with a feeling out process. But we'll see which
team decides to abandon the run and think that they
can hit a few chunk yardage plays in the passing game.
(19:50):
Knowing what's at stake in the Big.
Speaker 3 (19:51):
Ten East Todd here in Los Angeles, panic, heartbreak, and
a lot of anger, a lot of emotions rolling around
after USC gets stumped a week ago seven point favorites
at home against Utah. Is Utah's defense good enough to
offset the offensive shortcomings or can that offense actually take
(20:13):
advantage of USC two I don't.
Speaker 5 (20:15):
Think Utah's offense is going to do a whole heck
of a lot in this game. It's more a question
of if USC can get on track offensively, and we've
seen some extremely sluggish starts, not just last week in
South Bend where they turned the ball over a multitude
of times and found themselves behind the eight ball just
thirty minutes into the game, but even against the Arizonas
of the World Arizona States, you can't get off to
(20:35):
that kind of start against the team that's as offensively
challenged as Utah is. If USC puts together a couple
good drives early and the UTA have to abandon the
ground game, I think that's the perfect blueprint. But you
look at the way this game has been bet. The
total from fifty six down as low as fifty one
and a half says that Utah's defense will be able
to hold its own. I don't think the Utes can
exploit some of the defensive deficiencies for USC, but there's
(20:58):
no doubt this is a real gut check for the Trojans, who,
while they may have been saddled with a non conference laws,
still control their own destiny in the PAC twelve and
Caleb Williams has to put all those boo birds aside
and go out there, get back to some of the
basics and clean up the mechanics that really plague some
poor decision making last week against the Irish.
Speaker 1 (21:14):
Vegas Insider Todd Furman our guest here, Jason Smith Mike
Harmon live from the tirec dot Com studios. All right,
so before we get into specific games in the NFL,
you had a bit this week on Twitter. You talked
about scoring being down across the NFL. Does that have
any kind of effect on you and when it comes
to making lines for over unders or for whatever bet
(21:35):
you're putting out there, or is this something where it's like, hey,
we can't keep banking on the fact that scores are
going to be down, spoints are going to go up eventually.
How do you deal with something like that? With a
trend like that, when scores are down for a decent amount.
Speaker 5 (21:46):
Of time, you begin to dig into some of the
numbers and try and figure out why that might be
the case. And there are a couple of theories out there.
When you look at some of the defensive penalties, an
increase in defensive holding, a legal contact and more so
than pass interfering, So some of those thirty and forty
yard chunk plays become just a five yard variety. You've
seen a deterioration and offensive line play as well, and
(22:07):
we know when you look at historical data, anytime a
team takes a holding penalty, that is as big a
drive killer as you're going to find in the NFL,
given how difficult it is to try and recover when
you get behind the down and distance. But the other
thing is too, I know a lot of people from
a fantasy side, you start to get a little bit
more concerned teams are moving the football between the twenties.
They're just bogging down in the red zone. So in
(22:28):
a PPR league, you're looking for players that can get
their volume of catches and yardage because those touchdowns just
aren't there at the same high volume. But it really
is a copycat league. And as you continue to try
and look at some of these NFL teams and what
they're doing defensively, somewhere along the way, these offenses are
going to make adjustments and they're going to find a
way to turn long drives from threes into seven. I'm
(22:49):
just not quite sure, when Rubbert meets the.
Speaker 3 (22:50):
Road one of the big games of the week, we've
got a trio that kind of stand on. So we
look at the Chargers on the road at Kansas City,
Herbert with a number of misfires this last week in
a winnable game against the Cowboys, Kansas City's offense not clicking.
But they did bring back Mekle Hardman, So that's going
(23:11):
to solve.
Speaker 5 (23:11):
Every day that jun Jets You yeah, I mean, look,
Kansas City, to your point, harm offensively has not found
a rhythm. We know what Patrick Mahomes can do. We
know how dynamic Travis Kelsey is, but when you look
to try and identify some of the other receivers to
create more balance, the big plays really haven't been there.
But I think what people are sleeping on right now
for the Chiefs is how good they've been on the
(23:32):
defensive side of the wall, and it makes them an
extremely difficult and dangerous out the deeper we get into
the season. Chris Jones has been a massive force along
the defensive line, and Charles Omenahu returns from a suspension.
He may be on a snap count, but I think
he's another player that can get after opposing quarterbacks, and
if you're not going to give up more than twenty
point one points in a game, it's obviously a recipe
(23:53):
for success to win football games. At the same time,
the Chargers haven't exactly been scared to go to Arrowhead.
They've won their three times in the last you seven
to ten years. And you look at how close these
games have been over the last five meetings or six,
I should say, only one of them has been decided
by six points or more and that was the Travis
Kelcey overtime catch against the Chargers in Los Angeles in
(24:16):
a thirty four to twenty eight decision. So I think
the Chargers know their season hangs in the balance, even
on a short week. I think they're live underdogs. You
just hope that they're going to do a few things
to shore up their protection schemes that haven't quite been
there the last two weeks without Corey Linsley tod I know.
Speaker 1 (24:30):
Two of the games spent a lot of time talking
about and about the board podcast Lions and the Ravens.
My Lions because I picked the lines to go to
the Super Bowl and Miami in Philadelphia. Let's deal with
Lions Ravens. First, this is a huge get. Like, I
think people will start believing in the Lions if they
win this game. Two really tough defenses. Look, the Lions
defense doesn't get the credit it deserves for what they've
(24:50):
done against the run so far. How do you see
this game?
Speaker 5 (24:53):
I think people should believe in the Lions already. To
be quite honest, I'm not sure this is necessarily game
or they have to go out there and prove a
whole heck of a lot. When you look at the
landscape of the NFC, it's Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Detroit
probably a half kick behind right now. Maybe with the
Cowboys as they get there, you know, stuff together. But
you look at Detroit a difficult travel spot. Going back
(25:14):
on the road for the second straight week, the conditions
may be a little bit more difficult to navigate through.
For Jared Goff that what he dealt with last week
in Tampa. And I also think the absence of David
Montgomery changes what this team can do to create balance.
Jamiir Gibbs doesn't give them that same power back that
can run between the tackles. I don't think Craig Reynolds
does either. Should he be available for this game. And Baltimore,
(25:35):
you know, you look at what they did last Sunday
against the Tennessee Titans. That final score rather misleading. I
mean they drove the ball at will against the Titans,
just bogged down in the red zone, going one of six.
If they turn any of those into touchdowns, you're looking
at Baltimore more than a field goal favorite. But this
has been a true battle in the betting market. You
see respected opinions on both sides of the equation, and
a very similar scenario in folding with Miami and Philly,
(25:57):
with the Eagles just shy of a field goal favorite
at a lot of books. Philadelphia should be able to
do enough with their defensive line to at least take
away some of the explosive big play potential in the
ground game, but Miami will hit their big pass plays
over the top. No Reed Blakenship in the back end.
This Eagle secondary has been a lot more vulnerable this
year than they were in the past. And we'll see
if Philadelphia offensively can make sure that they show some
(26:19):
more consistency because they put together a long time consuming drive,
but they haven't necessarily been as prolific on that side
of the ball as they were last year. But it
should be a big game for DeAndre Swift because Miami
typically goes a little lighter box. I think Philadelphia I'll
be able to take advantage running the.
Speaker 4 (26:35):
Football, all right, The last one really quick. The MVP odds.
Speaker 3 (26:39):
Jason Smith is now creating a full Heisman like campaign
for Jared Goff.
Speaker 4 (26:44):
What say you?
Speaker 5 (26:46):
I think golf is a little more that he's got
to prove out there now. He's going to have an
excellent chance over the back half of the schedule to
really go out there and accumulate stats. But for me,
I'm not sure I can make a case for golf
because I think this is as much a Ben Johnson
creation as much as anything else. He has been outstanding
getting the most out of some of the Lions personnel.
Speaker 4 (27:05):
You know.
Speaker 5 (27:05):
For me, it still runs through Western New York, and
I think when you look at what Josh Allen's going
to be asked to do for the Buffalo Bills, given
how banged up they are on the FENSA side, if
I was betting into that market right now, I know
it's not the sexiest pick when you bet a guy
with relatively short odds, but I think Josh Allen has
all the opportunities in the world to go out there
and be MVP this season.
Speaker 1 (27:26):
You can follow on Twitter at Todd Furman. That is
at Todd Furman. Check out the rest of the bet
to Board podcast Todd as always, Buddy, appreciate it. Man.
We'll talk to you next week.
Speaker 5 (27:35):
You got it, gentlemen, have a great weekend.
Speaker 4 (27:36):
Thanks
Hosts And Creators
Jason Smith
Mike Harmon
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