January 1, 2025 • 41 mins
On tonight’s edition of The Jason Smith Show with Mike Harmon, Arnie Spanier and Chris Plank fill in for Jason Smith and Mike Harmon. Arnie and Chris kick off the hour by analyzing the AFC and NFC playoff seedings and breaking down the various scenarios that could unfold in Week 18. Next, Fox Sports Radio professional bettor Bill Krackomberger joins the show to dive into all things sports betting across the NFL, NBA, and college games. Finally, Arnie shares his picks for the week! Don’t miss all this and more in Hour 4!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Thanks for listening to The Jason Smith Show with Mike
Harmon podcast. Be sure to catch us live every weeknight
ten pm to two am Eastern seven to eleven pm
Pacific on Fox Sports Radio. Find your local station for
The Jason Smith Show with Mike Harmon at Foxsports Radio
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Speaker 2 (00:22):
Give.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio.
Speaker 4 (00:28):
And we are one step closer to the Final Four
in college football. As you heard from De Saga there,
Boise State is out, Penn State is moving on thirty
one to fourteen. The Nitney Lyons take out Boise State.
We got highlights and postgame coming up on a busy
busy might no no longer the Power Hour, right Arnie,
(00:51):
the Bonus Hours hours.
Speaker 5 (00:52):
We're at the Bonus Hour, Big.
Speaker 4 (00:54):
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New Year in the Central time Zone a God's time zone,
(01:15):
God's time zone in the Central time Zone. Do you
make New Year's resolutions by chance? I?
Speaker 6 (01:22):
You know, I used to, but ever since I became
pretty much perfect, right, there's nothing really to change about.
Speaker 4 (01:29):
Congrats all that.
Speaker 5 (01:30):
Yeah, I don't know what I would do differently, to
be honest with you.
Speaker 4 (01:33):
Well, one thing that we're debate.
Speaker 5 (01:35):
Maybe I could go lose a pound or two.
Speaker 4 (01:37):
Maybe. Okay, Well, congrats on perfection. Only one other guy
accomplished that and it didn't necessarily end so well for
him on this earth. Good luck, buddy. Here's a couple
of notes for you. We talked about resting starters. Yeah,
and Dan Campbell didn't do it and got away with it,
but claimed he was nervous, said he had his fingers crossed. Meanwhile,
(02:00):
on I guess Bill Belichick is still doing a radio program.
He had Jim Harbaugh on this week, And here's what
Jim Harbaugh and Bill Belichick said about making that decision
to rest starter.
Speaker 7 (02:11):
Here's the thing that that resonate right now is UH tarball,
you know, play the backups, you know, like that would
where we're gonna do dress twenty five guys you know
for the UH for the game.
Speaker 8 (02:23):
So yeah, that's what. That's what some people I think
have a hard time with is well, don't play your starters. Yeah,
I mean you can only have seven inactive guys. Who
are they? And it's tough to go to your team
and say, well, we're not going to play you guys
over here, but the rest of you get out there,
we don't really care about you. You know, if you
get that doesn't matter.
Speaker 5 (02:42):
But he's six or seven guys work.
Speaker 4 (02:45):
I like that. You don't guys going.
Speaker 5 (02:47):
To by the way.
Speaker 6 (02:48):
First of all, that shouldn't be even in your consideration.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
Where you go.
Speaker 6 (02:52):
We don't care about you. Nobody gives a damn whether
you care about me or not. I'm paying you millions
of dollars. You go out and play, whether I want
you to play or I or watch to play.
Speaker 5 (03:00):
I'm not hurt. I don't care if I hurt your feelings.
Speaker 6 (03:03):
If I want to sit everybody out, but the twelve
guys and I want you to play both ways, and.
Speaker 5 (03:07):
You're playing both ways. I don't give it to them.
Speaker 6 (03:09):
If I want an offensive lineman kicking field goals, you're
gonna gick them.
Speaker 5 (03:13):
That's why I'm paying you ten million dollars a year.
Speaker 4 (03:15):
Yeah, not everyone's making ten million dollars.
Speaker 5 (03:17):
Number one, well you're making millions.
Speaker 4 (03:19):
And number two. I don't think Bill Belichick ever cared
about how anyone else felt exactly exactly whatever he was
all of a sudden, he's like, well, I care about
how this guy feels. No, you don't. It's like one
of those where like, Okay, Bill, it's fine.
Speaker 6 (03:34):
I can see Barkley wanting to play because he wants
to break the record something like Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 5 (03:39):
As competitive as he.
Speaker 6 (03:40):
Is, I'm sure he could take it either way. He
can say, fine, if you want to rest us, let's
rest us. Though I get a feeling that there's some
kind of animosity between them and Denver that he.
Speaker 5 (03:51):
Wants to play the game.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
See that's what I dig I like the idea that
you would do something. I mean, go back, go back
to when the Browns made the play I remember that Cleveland,
and you made the playoffs and you actually won a
game with Baker Mayfield at your quarterback before you got
an adult in the Remember that Cleveland. The Pittsburgh Steelers
had a chance knock him out of the playoffs in
the final week of the season, and they they rested
(04:14):
their starters and Cleveland beat him made the playoffs.
Speaker 6 (04:19):
When you say resting your starters, how many people you
think you're talking about, by the.
Speaker 4 (04:22):
Way, quarterback, maybe a couple receivers, star running back and
and defensive players are.
Speaker 6 (04:30):
Maybe not even that much, to be honest with you,
Maybe just more of Mahomes And.
Speaker 4 (04:36):
Well you're talking about just Kansas City here.
Speaker 6 (04:38):
Yeah, Kansas City. I'm thinking Mahomes and patcheck go. And
that's really about it, right, because you want to keep
him healthy because you just got you.
Speaker 4 (04:45):
Don't care about Travis Kelcey or Chris Jones or Travis.
Speaker 5 (04:50):
Travis Kelsey that'd be the three i'd pretty much.
Speaker 4 (04:53):
So we're on rest right. Just that conversation real quick
and we'll move on. Nick Sirianni was asked, Hey, what's
what's the conversation you should like in deciding whether or
not you're going to rest your starters in the series
In the season finale, especially with Saquon Barkley chasing.
Speaker 9 (05:07):
History, everything's taken into account. You know, I'm going to
always do what's best for the team and the individuals
going for that, and I'm still thinking through a little
bit of this too. But something I haven't told the
guys yet, so I'll always let them know before I
let anybody else take into a lot to account. Again,
it's what's the best thing for the team, and then
also what's the best for the individuals that are going
(05:28):
for the record. You know, if you'd think back a
couple of years ago to twenty twenty one, Smitty was
going for the rookie receiving record. I think he was
going to break to Shawn Jackson's rookie receiving record, and
everybody else was resting. But we wanted for everyone else
whatever it was, we didn't we didn't play some other
guys in that game. We went and got him that record.
Every situation is a little different, not saying one way
(05:48):
or the other how that's going to play out, or
even that I've made the decision yet, But again, I
got to tell the guys first when I do come
to that decision, and I'll let you guys know. But
a lot goes into it.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
And there's one of the other way.
Speaker 5 (06:00):
Serious is saying no.
Speaker 4 (06:02):
Vegas is saying no on Sirianni on Saquon Barkley. What
did I say, Sirianni.
Speaker 5 (06:07):
Yeah, Siriah, he either.
Speaker 6 (06:08):
Saying no on Saquon Barkley, only was they have Philadelphia
is a three point favorite over the Giants in Philadelphia
any normal game, I'd be betting a gazillion dollars on Philadelphia,
especially if it was right.
Speaker 5 (06:23):
Oh, I'm not afraid the lay three points.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (06:25):
Here with Sirian, I think this is a different cut.
Sometimes it's just an edited version of the cut. So
if it is, I apologize. But here's what he said
when he was asked if Saquon Barkley would play.
Speaker 9 (06:35):
I'll talk to our staff. I'll talk to the players,
I'll talk to Howie you know, I'll talk to mister Lourie.
I'll talk to everybody and to try to make sure
I'm making the best decisions for the football team. And
that's your job as a head coach.
Speaker 4 (06:47):
I wouldn't risk I wouldn't risk it. I know it's history,
though it's so hard right He's he's going after the
single season rushing record, going after Mark and now Eric Dickerson.
Speaker 5 (06:58):
Is can they go up and down in seatings too
or no?
Speaker 4 (07:01):
They're locked in as the two?
Speaker 5 (07:02):
Okay, then I would probably sit everybody out also.
Speaker 4 (07:05):
So then but if you play, if you play, Saquon
can't sit any of your offensive line.
Speaker 5 (07:10):
Right, no, one, absolutely not.
Speaker 4 (07:14):
Yeah. My here is, do you want to get into
the playoffs?
Speaker 10 (07:17):
Sea?
Speaker 6 (07:17):
You have to get by the way Saquad Barkley has
to get with like one hundred yards, right.
Speaker 4 (07:21):
Yeah, it's not it's not five carries in twenty yards.
You know, you gotta you gotta breaks. You gotta break
one hundred yards in order to get it.
Speaker 6 (07:30):
That's gonna take a while. That means they're gonna have
to play most of the game.
Speaker 4 (07:33):
All right, So as it stands right now, Uh, you
want to do the NFC or the AFC first, as
far as the playoff picture is concerned, which the AFC?
Speaker 5 (07:42):
Because my Dolphins are gonna get an hopeful?
Speaker 4 (07:44):
Okay? Well boy, you really have gone back and forth
on this, havevage.
Speaker 6 (07:49):
I just want Kansas City to win so bad because
I know my Dolphins are gonna win no matter who's
at quarterback.
Speaker 5 (07:54):
And I told you two weeks ago my Dolphins were
gonna make it. You all laughed at me. I said,
don't laugh.
Speaker 6 (07:59):
They laughed at Einsine, And once again I turned out
to be just like Einstein.
Speaker 4 (08:05):
Well, you're not right yet, but there is a twelve
percent chance that you can make the playoffs.
Speaker 5 (08:12):
What Miami twelve percent?
Speaker 4 (08:14):
Twelve percent?
Speaker 5 (08:15):
It's got to be better than that.
Speaker 4 (08:16):
Six percent for the Bengals right now.
Speaker 5 (08:19):
Wow, if you really think it, Dever is gonna win.
Speaker 4 (08:22):
If you win, it's twenty two percent. So and again,
this is real simple. The Broncos win and they're in
in their season finale against Kansas City in Denver. The
Dolphins need to beat the Jets and have the Broncos
lose to the Chiefs. The Bengals need to win their
(08:43):
game and hope the Dolphins lose and the Broncos lose.
That's the battle for the final playoff spot as it stands.
Here's the rest of the seeding in the AFC. This
is ten and a.
Speaker 5 (08:57):
Half now, Broncos, is it real? Yeah?
Speaker 4 (09:01):
Yeah, they're not letting those They're not letting those starters
step on the field at all, are they?
Speaker 8 (09:05):
Oh?
Speaker 5 (09:06):
Any Kansas City is so bad?
Speaker 4 (09:08):
The Ravens can secure the three seed and the AFC
North title by beating the Browns on Saturday. But should
they lose to Cleveland, where what's that number? Wasn't it
like sixteen and a half or eighteen something.
Speaker 6 (09:21):
Like that for the Browns of the Ravens, yes, it
was eighteen.
Speaker 4 (09:26):
Oh. But if they lose to Cleveland, they can still
maintain the three seed in their current spot in the
playoff picture. With the Steelers loss of the Bengals, Pittsburgh
still has seating at stake even if the division race
is over by the time it kicks off, because if
the Steelers failed to win, if they lose again on
(09:48):
Saturday and the Chargers beat Vegas, Pittsburgh would drop to
the sixth seed. Yeah, exactly so in that scenario, instead
of playing the Texans on Super Bowl are Super wild
Card weekend, the Steelers would spend around one of the
playoffs in Baltimore. Not good. The Bills in Texans are
(10:10):
locked into the two and four seeds, respectively. The Bills
will welcome either the Broncos, the Bengals, or the Dolphins,
whoever clinches the seventh seed.
Speaker 5 (10:18):
You know they want the Dolphins.
Speaker 4 (10:21):
Oh, I don't think they want anything to do with
the Bengals. Well, Houston will host either the Ravens, Steelers
or Chargers, whoever ends up at the five. At the five,
the Bills the Chiefs and the Ravens are our massive
favorites to win. But there's kind of what the rest
of the AFC looks like. Any other questions are confused?
Speaker 5 (10:43):
What did you say the Bills the Chiefs are the Ravens.
They're not.
Speaker 4 (10:48):
The Chiefs are the one, the Bills are the two.
Speaker 5 (10:50):
Yeah, okay, I thought you met the game.
Speaker 4 (10:52):
Miss No, I'm sorry, Bills, the Chiefs are the one.
The Bills are the two. Sorry. And then the Ravens again.
They can lose and still be the three is kind
of what I was. They can lose and still end
up being the three if the Steelers lose. Now, if
the Steelers win and the Ravens lose, there's some weird
tiebreaker because they would have split their games against each other. Right,
(11:15):
there's some weird tiebreaker where I think Pittsburgh would get
the NOD. But let's not go down that road on Wednesday. Okay,
let's wait until we get a little bit closer to
Saturday when those two teams play to figure that one out.
I want to double check this too, because the Ravens
the Steelers. They beat the Ravens. Yeah, they beat the
Ravens eighteen to sixteen, and then lost to them in
(11:37):
Week sixteen thirty four to seventeen. So they've split the
regular season. And I want to say, because you brought
this up, it would go down to like the fifth
tie break.
Speaker 6 (11:46):
Yeah, they don't give you the tie breaker on that
one for some reason, so I'm thinking it has to
be something really weird.
Speaker 4 (11:51):
Yeah, it is on the anything else in the AFC
playoff picture, you wil move on to the NFC side.
Speaker 6 (11:57):
No, I was just looking to see what was the
money on Denver Kansas City, and I think Denver is
like minus three to one, so minus three hundred would
be the Broncos, which is absolutely crazy. I think I'd
have to take Kansas City to pull off the upset.
I mean, you're still talking about a fifteen to one team, right, geez,
(12:20):
I got to take the ten and a half points,
no matter who the hell they're playing.
Speaker 4 (12:24):
Right, I mean, they might not be playing starters, but
they've been known as Kansas City to even with a
backup quarterback, now not necessarily the last couple of seasons,
but I remember the last week of the season was
where Patrick Mahomes broke out. Carson Wentz is a guy
that he's bounced around a little bit. Maybe he's matured,
(12:47):
maybe he's learned a little bit more from Andy Reid.
So like a lock from the Giants, who Carson wentz, Yeah,
you already have him go to the Giants.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
No?
Speaker 6 (12:57):
No, like you know, like like the way Drew Locke
played with the Giants.
Speaker 4 (13:02):
Oh oh oh, I thought he were saying, I got
him as a lock going to the New York Giants
next year. So you've got him throwing for three hundred plus.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
No.
Speaker 6 (13:10):
No, like the same scenario, the same situation, you know,
like the same type of skills and that he could.
Speaker 5 (13:18):
He could pull it off for maybe, Kay, you don't
know what you're gonna get with him the last game?
Speaker 4 (13:22):
All right, here we go with the NFC. According to
every single thing out there, we know this, the Lions
and the Vikings will play Sunday night for the number
one overall seed.
Speaker 5 (13:35):
That's good.
Speaker 6 (13:35):
Otherwise the Vikings are going to be fourteen and three
with a five five seed.
Speaker 4 (13:40):
The winner receives the one seed, a playoff by and
they get their banner. The loser gets the fifth seed
and a trip to either La Tampa or Atlanta in
Round one. The Eagles in Er the weekend in what's
described by NFL dot Com and waits.
Speaker 5 (14:00):
Home field, and you're the Rams and you're welcoming in
the Lions.
Speaker 4 (14:04):
I feel good about my chances. Oh geez, I mean listen.
I think whoever ends up as the five is one
and done. I think whoever ends up in the five
is getting beaten in the first round of the playoffs.
I really do. Could change my mind depending on how
things look on Sunday, but for now that's where I'm feeling.
The Eagles have locked up the two seat. They'll host
(14:25):
either the Packers or the Commanders, whichever team ends up
at seven in the opening round of the tournament. Philly's
biggest I guess contribution to Week eighteen could be connected
to the NFL Draft. Could the Giants win and slip
further down the draft board Because the Giants are one
of only four teams left with a shot at the
(14:47):
number one overall pick. If they beat Philly, then they're
gonna slide down in like Vegas Raider territory. Right now,
I thought.
Speaker 6 (14:54):
They were done. I thought they had no chance. I
thought it was gonna be New England all the way.
Speaker 4 (14:57):
No, No, New England. Controls its own destiny for the
top overall pick and.
Speaker 5 (15:01):
Who they play the final weekend.
Speaker 4 (15:03):
I don't know the It's New England man, the the
the Patriots, the Giants, the Titans, and there was one
other team that still have a shot at the top
overall pick.
Speaker 5 (15:17):
But hey, pete, play the Bills. They're not going to
beat the Bills.
Speaker 4 (15:19):
Well, the Bills are going to rest their starters.
Speaker 5 (15:22):
They could rest everybody and they still win.
Speaker 4 (15:25):
And if you're the Patriots, are you really going out
there to try to win on that's gonna be? Will
you want to talk about the tank?
Speaker 6 (15:31):
Eleven drunk guys from their stadium and beat the Patriots.
And by the way, what's the situation for Drake.
Speaker 5 (15:37):
May and that in that game?
Speaker 4 (15:39):
I don't play him, I said him.
Speaker 5 (15:42):
I don't risk it right right, So got hurt? You
got hurt. That's why I'm asking.
Speaker 4 (15:47):
Oh you're asking about hurt.
Speaker 5 (15:48):
Live, Yeah, have a concussion, so be sud or not.
Speaker 4 (15:52):
I'm not playing him because I don't want to ruin
that draft. I mean, if you can talk about tanks
in with five weeks to go in the season, like
Raider fans like to do when it's the final game
of the year. That's a completely other store that story
in my mind. All right, can I finish this real quick? Yea, yeah, okay,
Commanders and Packers have already punched their tickets. Week eighteen
(16:12):
is all about playoff positioning. Here's numbers. A Washington win
or Green Bay loss would keep both clubs in their
current spots, and, by the way, according to NFL dot com,
that occurred in sixty eight percent of the simulations. However,
a Commander's loss plus a Packers win would flop the
(16:32):
two teams. So in that scenario, the Packers would go
to either La or Tampa and Philly. Yeah, then Philly
would be worrying about Washington. In the first round the
Seahawks and Rams was supposed to be for the division,
but obviously that already happens. Yeah, And the Bucks and
the Falcons will play each with an opportunity to win
(16:55):
the NFC South. If the Bucks win, they're the champs.
The Falcons need a win and a Bucks loss. Ravens
are a ninety six percent pick to win the AFC North.
The course part of that is playing Cleveland. The Lions
fifty nine percent to beat the Vikings. Tampa Bay eighty
(17:15):
nine percent over the Atlanta Falcons.
Speaker 6 (17:18):
Does it tell you the percentage for Kansas City Denver?
Speaker 4 (17:24):
Well, no, it doesn't have that, because I don't they're
not battling for a division. This was just the three
division percentages, right, Sorry, Arnie. I know you're concerned about
it because you think your your Dolphins are gonna get
in the playoffs and go to the super Bowl.
Speaker 5 (17:38):
But well, we are going to get to the playoffs.
Speaker 4 (17:41):
You already said an hour one, it's not gonna happen.
How'd you change your mind in three hours?
Speaker 5 (17:45):
That was three hours ago.
Speaker 4 (17:48):
Company live from the ti rack dot com studios. When
we come back, Fox Sports Radio's very own Bill Krackenberger
is going to join us as we get ready for
three games in the college football playoffs tomorrow and Week
eighteen in the National Football League. But first, I want
to tell you about myphdeweightloss dot com. You hear Jason
(18:10):
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Speaker 3 (19:21):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Jason Smith
Show with Mike harmon weekdays at ten pm Eastern, seven
pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 4 (19:32):
Tarny and Plank and We're coming to you Alive from
the tire Raq dot Com studios in for Jason and Mike.
You ready to talk some gambling here, Arnie.
Speaker 5 (19:43):
I can't wait.
Speaker 6 (19:44):
I love talking the Bill Bill, I love looking at
his videos.
Speaker 5 (19:47):
Even tells you what slot machines to play when you
go to Vegas.
Speaker 4 (19:51):
I love, I love mad. That is what I call
insider information right there. Yeah, you hear here on Fox
Sports Radio. Bill Krackenberg coming up here here in mere moments.
A couple of quick tweets though, I like this point
from Jason right. The only problem for the Chiefs can
you go almost four weeks without your stars playing? And
now that is the only Yeah, that is the only
(20:12):
reason why I see coach read playing as starters. I mean,
sixteen and one means something maybe maybe twenty six days,
and if they plan on that Saturday, it would be
twenty five days. I don't know. Let's ask Bill what
he thinks. Bill Krackenberger joins us. You hear him here
on Fox Sports Radio. An incredible follow on Twitter at
Bill Krackman. Do you have any problems with the Chiefs
(20:33):
going twenty six twenty five days without their starters playing? Bill?
Do you think they should go a little bit on
Saturday or Sunday against the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (20:41):
Hey guys, well first time, how you guys doing mare,
Happy New Year? Yeah, yeah, I'm just I'm sitting here
in Vegas overlooking the strip, but in the safety of
my compound here because it's amateur night in Vegas, so
you gotta be careful out there. But I'm mind you back.
We have good views of the so from here. But anyway,
(21:02):
you know what's funny that game, That game's up to
eleven points now. And I actually told one of my partners,
I said, listen, I don't care who's quarterbacking in that
game and who's playing in that game. Eleven points is
just too much. Lots of these Kansas City backup guys
can start on some of these teams out there. I'm
(21:22):
sure New York over in New York, the Jets or Giants,
especially the Jets would love to have some of these
backup guys starting for them. But yeah, you know, that
is a long time to go in between. But you know,
I think Kansas City is really has a nice pass.
As a matter of fact, our sponsor bet MGM, they
had plus four to seventy five just a week ago
(21:43):
for Kansas City to win the Super Bowl. I usually
don't bet those type of bets because there's so much
juice involved in those type of but I just thought
that was pretty good value compared to the other teams.
And I searched around. I have a lot of places
to bet liveing in Vegas, and some of them had
like plus two and a half, the one plus four
to one, plus three to one, so almost five to one.
I'm still very confident with Kansas City. Patrick mahomes the
(22:07):
smartest quarterback in the NFL. Remember when he signed, I
was saying to myself, oh my god, I can't believe
they gave a quarterback that kind of money. Now he's
like fifth or sixth on the list, and but I'll
tell you he should be first because I think he
still has I think he is the best quarterback out there. Listen.
I know there's a lot of love for Allen now
he's getting tossed around, and even MVP talks is in that.
(22:30):
But I still have to go to the well here
where the guy that's a veteran quarterback at such a
young age, a veteran quarterback of Super Bowls, And that's
what it is. It takes it. You know, there's horses
for courses and he's one of them.
Speaker 6 (22:44):
You know, Bill, how did they put out How does
Vegas put out the line in Denver minus ten and
a half and Philadelphia minus three until or if he's
going to play it until the Year of the Chiefs
are definitely good.
Speaker 4 (22:59):
Yea, I think he's one. Know the numbers if put
out there not knowing whenever they're starters are going to
play or not. How challenging is that, Bill?
Speaker 2 (23:06):
Yeah, you know, these numbers come out Sunday night, a
week before the game. Most people don't realize that they
come out a week before the games, and so Sunday
night was a battle. Only two sports books in the
world put out lines, and all the rest of them
wait the copy. Normally they're up within fifteen twenty minutes
of seeing the originating sportsbooks. However, this Sunday night was
(23:28):
a funny thing. Only three put out lines. They waited
until Monday morning. I'll tell you it was a field
day for me here in Vegas with one of the sportsbooks. However, However,
if I only lived back East or wherever DraftKings was,
I fly back all the time to Connecticut, the Fox
with they have a DraftKings location there. Well, I tell
(23:50):
you they had some I don't want to say weak lines,
but they had some lines that differed from the sportsbook
here in Vegas that puts out some of the lines.
And they were off by three four points. Literally there
were four points middle four point middles if you had
both sports books up and you just didn't know who
(24:11):
was right. However, I think I got a pretty good
grasp on a couple of the games, and you mentioned
like the Philadelphia Giants game, the Giants were plus four.
I was so tempted to take the four points looking
at it now here in Vegas, Circa and stations both
have three, So that alone would be a good a
(24:33):
good thing to have the four points, I guess. But
I just can't trust the Giants, even though they beat
Indie last week, who was going for the playoffs, and
the Giants will lose that draft, that number one draft choice,
you know, and it is their rival, it is their kryptonite.
Is a Giants Philadelphia old rival game. By the way,
anyone listening over there, I would not be going into
(24:54):
the link in Philadelphia wearing any Giants here a one
you now even though you guys don't need the game
over there. But yeah, so that line, that line opened
up four down to three minus twenty here in Vegas
a couple three and a halfs the opposite of the
Kansas City Denver game. That game actually opened seven. So
I have the originally I have the originating line here
(25:15):
at tonight in front of me. That game opened that's seven.
This is the one I met that was four points off,
So it's seven here in town. It was eleven at DraftKings.
I was like, oh my god, a four point middle.
That is just something you put, you know, open up
the bankroll too. But it settled around eleven. DraftKings was right,
it settled around eleven here. I still like the dog there.
(25:37):
First of all, I'm not laying double digits with any
NFL team any week of the season. I have known
what has happened over the years. Just basic strategy. Basic,
You don't have to know anything. You don't have to
know the players' names, you don't have to know the
color of the uniforms. Basic strategy. Lifetime. Taking the double
digit point dogs is a winning strategy. Just ettingham, which
(26:00):
this week would be. Of course, there's a couple of
them though. The Saints, well, you can't say Chicago. Now,
Chicago was ten down to nine. Kansas City. The Baltimore game,
let me see that. What's that up to? Baltimore was
up to a ton of points. That's Saturday's game. It's
seventeen and a half eighteen, So you know you just here.
If Baltimore was winning by I'm going to even say
(26:23):
seventeen points. I'll even say twenty points in the end.
So the fourth quarter, they don't want to get anybody hurt,
they're not going to be I would think you pull
your star athletes for the playoffs. You know you have
the game at hand, and you know you never know
a backdoor touchdowner, even up by ten points where Cleveland's
already covered. I can't lay the double digits with any
of these teams.
Speaker 4 (26:44):
You're a guess. Bill Krackenberger on Countdown to Kickoff Sunday
Mornings with Brian No and our buddy Jeff Schwartz. That's
ten a to one p Eastern. As we get you
ready for kickoff. Leading up to the playoffs, Bill, I
wanted to ask you quickly about the college games we
saw Penn State take care of business tonight, anything kind
of jumping at you. I'm still surprised the Ohio State
(27:05):
line didn't move. I wonder if that's an overreaction to
their performance against Tennessee. But anything really jumping out at
you in the three playoff games tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (27:13):
I look forward to watching that Ohio State Oregon game
like with the rest of America. But I also want
America to know. This line's like an NFL line. Anyone
that bets these games a day of the game, it's
the hardest, most efficient line to get into. Therefore, you know,
every single media source covers these things. I've said this before.
I'm not a broken record, but I still want to
(27:35):
say it. I'm going to beat it into the ground.
Very hard to beat NFL sides of the day of
the game, very hard to beat games like the Sugar Bowl,
Rose bul each Bowl. These lines have been out for
a while here. I am kind of surprised that this
game actually here in town. The Sharp sports book that
takes a lot of money, I mean, whatever you want
(27:55):
to dump out on the counter tomorrow, they'll literally take
a million dollars from the Ohio They were this particular
sports book they have minus two and a half minus fifteen.
I'll tell you. I'll just listen. I know last time
they played it was think it was thirty two thirty one. Boy,
if this game went to three, I would even if
we could find some low hanging through at some of
(28:16):
the slower moving square sports books in this town that
gets lots of volume by the local crowds, I would
maybe jump in for a bet on Oregon plus the
three points. But everyone loves Ohio State. I get it. Listen,
everyone loved Detroit the Lions the other night. I'll just
tell you that MGM had four and a half minus fifteen.
(28:37):
At one time, they actually got hurt. We had the
director of oper the director on our on our show's
out on Sunday. Listen, they actually lost money. That's right,
they lost money to the game. I want to just
tell you ninety five percent of people that bet that
game bet Detroit sportsbooks definitely were hurting. Now listen, Bill
Krackenberger's not taking no collection for him. That's they destroyed
(28:58):
people the first five six to the years. However, same
thing here. I just don't know who's betting Oregon. Everyone
loves Ohio State. I ranted, of course, my coast. Jeff
Schwartz doesn't. He went to Oregon. But people love Ohio State.
In this town betting wise, everyone buckets and buckets and
money coming out. I was in the casino on the
(29:20):
strip the other day where someone came up and bet
two hundred thousand dollars on this game on Ohio State.
They want to do it two and a half. Yeah,
you know, it's funny. People in Vegas. It's amazing. They
love betting these marqueeth type and matchups and there are
if you have a baccarroll player or a big casino player,
you know they want to come in from the casino
(29:40):
and they have a million dollars swings on the weekend.
Well sure, if they want to been a million bucks
in Ohio State, the sportsbook obligated to take it.
Speaker 6 (29:48):
So very interesting, Bill, You sound like you're in a
good mood for somebody who lost out on fourteen point
six million.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
Yeah. I got knocked out with in the Indianapolis Colts
got knocked out. But and it's like any given day,
any given I have you know, I'm not trying to usual.
They don't brag about numbers, but I mean I have
swings like that every week. I'm a rare person in
the sports betting media that actually, you know, bets a
lot of money on games. So I have swings like
that over the weekends. And you have to be a professional.
(30:16):
You have to go on, go on to the next game,
know that there's going to be another game tomorrow. I
live in a gambling town. This is vice central, drinking, drugs,
woman and alcohol. It's a tough town. You have to be.
You have to have those skill set to know to
control yourself. It's really easy to chase after losing, getting
knocked out of you know, the survivor pool here. Really
(30:40):
needs to just go downstairs and you know, jumping across
the street here, and I live round the strip, so
you know, jump across the street. You know, role plays
in blackjack or baccara or crafts. It's really easy to do.
But you have to maintain that control and you have
to know tomorrow's another day.
Speaker 4 (30:55):
Do you hear that, Arnie? He actually bats on his picks,
not like you just throws him up in the You're
the man, crack Bill Krackenberger every single Sunday morning, Love
it man, appreciate your time, and Happy New Year. Enjoy
twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (31:10):
You guys very much, Happy safe helping the year to
both of you.
Speaker 5 (31:13):
Thank you, Happy New Year. Bill, Thank you very much.
Speaker 6 (31:15):
Man.
Speaker 4 (31:15):
I love Make sure you're following him on Twitter at
Bill Crackman with the kk R C K M A
N And if you haven't heard it, I love the
show with Jeff and Brian No and Jeff. The funny
thing Jeff Schwartz would told us. I get a chance
to work with Jeff quite a bit. I like Jeff
a lot. He is fired up about tomorrow Oregon guy
feels really good about it. He said, you'll be in
(31:37):
the middle of like a segment and all of a sudden,
crack will go. All right, guys, I just laid down
a wager on the over in Carolina because X, Y
and Z is happening there, and right away Brian Now
and Jeffeldon go that's their next bet because he's his
mind is constantly about trying to find an edge, and
he's very very smart, so fun listening to him.
Speaker 6 (31:59):
I've heard the talk to him before and he said
nothing they ability you there because I'm sorry, guys, I
was making a.
Speaker 5 (32:05):
Bat Yeah exactly, I'm making it bat. I'm sorry, I'd
advant attention.
Speaker 4 (32:10):
And then as soon as he gets done making the bat,
everyone else has got to make the beat too, exactly.
All right, Okay, we're on, all right, let's get let's
get a couple of these tweets of the show tonight,
and then we'll get Arnie's picks and we'll get out
of the way for our buddy Bernie Fratto to take
you through the first night of twenty twenty five. You
feel different in the new year. You feel like a
new you.
Speaker 6 (32:30):
Well I do, but till Frank just sent this in
new year, same spotty connection from Arnie. Can somebody get
Arnie some WiFi instead of eating that he's been using
since Soul five usually have a good connection. It's four
hours and uh, you know, I have a little bit
of like for two seconds it spot it out.
Speaker 5 (32:48):
Relax yourself, you.
Speaker 4 (32:49):
Know, it's more than two seconds. It's very uncomfortable because
you'll be in the middle of a question. Then you'll
pop back on to start talking like this and like,
what the hell just happened? Where did Arnie go? And
I'm sitting there waiting for it, and it's weird. I
think ty Shirt has done enough shows with you, and
I know that Shay has to where it'll get enough
(33:10):
of the conversation left out where it's not real clear
what you're asking, and then whenever you come back, we'll
get two more wards and you'll drop again and then
you're fine. That's the weird thing about it, because you'll
be talking, it'll it'll go ahead. But does it not?
Speaker 5 (33:27):
A lot doesn't happen a lot though during the four hours.
Speaker 4 (33:29):
So it hasn't happened a lot tonight and it's like
a once an hour thing.
Speaker 10 (33:32):
We can It's like enough to like like when it
happens again, you go, oh yeah, that that happens a
problem that happened before, but like not enough to be
like we should do something right.
Speaker 4 (33:44):
You know what. It's enough to where it's like, oh
yeah that happened, Not enough to where you're like, Arnie,
something's wrong. You need to fix your a quick.
Speaker 10 (33:50):
But we should we should probably I'll do something about that.
Figure Shae's gonna take you out there, you go, I'll
take you something about it. I'll tell Alex to take
care of it.
Speaker 4 (33:59):
So very important tweets we need to get to through
the night. Tennis data was first hit. He asked the question,
do the Eagles try to get Saquon Barkley? And how
about our excuse me, do the Eagles try to get
Saquon Barkley the record? And how about Kirk Kerbstreet getting
community noted on Twitter after getting salty when he was
reminded that he wanted Alabama in the playoffs. Let's go
(34:22):
to the first one you play. You play Saquon on Sunday.
Speaker 6 (34:26):
I think you do because he wants it, the team
wants it for him. Seems like everybody's rowing around him.
I think you play him and then once he gets it,
you pull everybody out.
Speaker 5 (34:37):
I think it's a win win situation.
Speaker 7 (34:39):
You know what.
Speaker 4 (34:40):
I agree with you, But I don't know if I
would say win win, I'll still be very nervous that
whole time whenever I'm sitting there watching things kind of
play out, regardless regardless of how it goes, Like should
I pull about now? How close is he the record?
Speaker 9 (35:00):
Like?
Speaker 4 (35:00):
Just give him the ball in the first thirty plays
of the game and then see how it goes from there.
As far as Herbie, Herbie had time for it tonight, man,
some people tried to come after him and he fired back.
So Kirk Kurbstreet was here in twenty twenty five to
fight with you on Twitter. Isaac Allen out of clarification, Arnie,
(35:22):
daylight savings is in the summer. We are not on
it currently. Daylight Savings starts in March, so it would
not affect football at all. If we get rid of
daylight savings. It means that nights in an hour early
and morning starts an hour early in summer.
Speaker 6 (35:39):
What would effect places that don't change your clocks like Arizona, Indiana, Indiana.
Speaker 4 (35:45):
That's true, and let's see there was one more here
it is Paul writes, My New Yars resolution is to
not tweet this show thirty times a week, demanding that
the Bills fire Sean McDermott. If they don't win the
AFC Championship, they'll still do it. I think you will,
all right when we come back, Arnie's picks will take
us home.
Speaker 3 (36:03):
On Fox Sports Radio, be sure to catch live editions
of The Jason Smith Show with Mike Harmon weekdays at
ten pm Eastern, seven pm Pacific. May.
Speaker 4 (36:14):
Yeah, Maddie New Year, Maddy New Year?
Speaker 3 (36:17):
May do you know the movie that's from Arnie Spanier.
Speaker 5 (36:22):
Eddie Murphy and trading places. Wow, listen to you, looking
proud of you right now.
Speaker 4 (36:30):
Little movies miffed on that it's a great movie by
some consider it a Christmas movie because I think there's
one scene where Dan atkroutzwear ye Santa uniform.
Speaker 5 (36:40):
Yeah, exactly?
Speaker 4 (36:42):
Did you consider Rocky for a Christmas movie? You know
Rocky four did take place on Christmas, the fight with
dragons on Christmas?
Speaker 5 (36:49):
I don't think so.
Speaker 8 (36:51):
No.
Speaker 4 (36:52):
A couple of quick tweets before we get to Arnie's picks.
Did you see Bill's tweet said happy New Year's thinking genius?
Been listening to you since in nineteen ninety eight?
Speaker 5 (37:03):
Oh my goodness, No, I've not. I didn't see that one.
Speaker 4 (37:05):
Where's that at? Well? There's a lot of numbers here,
he says, go Navy beat Army. Well obviously, Oh and
he added boomer sooner so he doesn't get he just
gets middle block.
Speaker 5 (37:15):
Have I been around that long? Nineteen ninety eight?
Speaker 4 (37:18):
I remember listening to you whenever I was a kid,
You silly Dodger Frank right, Thank you guys for being
on the air tonight, But just know the ball was
already dropped in New York two months ago. Aaron Judge,
Oh yeah, easy money. Right, your dysfunctional Dolphins and my
(37:40):
bungling Bengals battling once again, this time for the last
playoff spot. I'm gonna need the Joker Jets to beat you.
Speaker 5 (37:50):
I want so bad, so bad for Denver to lose
to Kansas City. I just I so badly want that
to happen.
Speaker 4 (37:59):
Chris, I'm sorry, I'm I'm sorry. I'm afraid it's not
gonna happen, but I'm sorry. And then finally, how about
these numbers leading right into your picks? Oh, we got time.
NFL favorites went one hundred and thirty three, one hundred
and twelve and six against the spread this year. NFL
(38:23):
favorites the last three weeks have gone thirty five and thirteen,
So they were ninety eight, ninety nine and six against
this spread prior to the last three weeks. Right, A
rash of favorites dominating of what's that insane? That's right,
(38:45):
A rash of favorites dominating a very recent phenomenon rather
than the full season, aligns with dregs going through the motions. So,
in other words, when people like what's going on with
Kansas City? What's going on with XYZ favorite this point? Hey,
just shine, Maybe they're not putting themselves with the energy
and the commitment they need to, because holy smokes, Arnie,
(39:08):
the favorites have been on fire over the last forty
eight games.
Speaker 6 (39:11):
Yep, they've been crushing it. That's why the books did
horrible in the last couple of weeks. They've been getting
clabbored after the favorites have been winning.
Speaker 4 (39:21):
Well are you ready you put a rap on this
with your picks? Take it away, stinking genius.
Speaker 6 (39:26):
I am seven and er on Sunday last week, which
means you were about ninety to one to get all.
Speaker 5 (39:33):
Seven right, Well, you all see a boatload of money
off me?
Speaker 4 (39:40):
Who made a boatload of money off you?
Speaker 5 (39:42):
Everybody did?
Speaker 4 (39:43):
Everybody did? All right? Well, where are you starting tonight?
Speaker 6 (39:46):
I'm taking Texas minus the thirteen against Arizona State. It's
a lot of points, but I don't believe Arizona State
can keep up with Texas. Texas should get out to
a big lead and then they're running game's gonnassault it away.
Arizona State won't be able to keep it up. I'll
take Texas minus the third team. Give me Oregon plus
(40:07):
d two and a half against Ohio State. This one
is going to be a unbelievable game, may come down
to the last possession, and I'm hoping we get a
good close game on this one.
Speaker 5 (40:17):
Also, this next game was.
Speaker 6 (40:20):
Tough, but I'm gonna take Georgia minus the one or
whatever it is one. I think it's one, not one
and a half against No.
Speaker 5 (40:27):
Tre Dame.
Speaker 6 (40:28):
We'll see how they do with their new quarterback. And
now the Carson becks out, so we'll see how that happens.
But I'm gonna take Georgia mines to one. I'm still
gonna take Kansas City plus the eleven. I think that's ridiculous.
I'm hoping they win so badly, and I know the
Dolphins will crush the Jets, so lay the points there.
Speaker 5 (40:49):
So there you have my picks.
Speaker 6 (40:50):
Do with them as you please, no longer strictly for
entertainment purposes, only you you think.
Speaker 4 (40:56):
We're gonna at least get a good game tomorrow out
of one of those three. I think two of them
are gonna be really good, don't you.
Speaker 6 (41:02):
I think the Oregon Ohio State will be good, and
I think Georgia Notre Dame will be good.
Speaker 4 (41:05):
I think Georgia Notre Dame will be really fun tomorrow night.
I don't know about Gunner. I don't know what Gunner
Stockton is gonna look like for a full game. But
I love his juice, I love his swagger. Whenever he
came in and that SEC championship gave them up, everyone
rallied around him. I think it's gonna be fun all right. Well,
happy twenty twenty five, New year to you, my friend.
(41:27):
I hope you'll hope you enjoy Yeah, and everybody that's
tuned in all year long. Jason and Mike, I think
they're coming back on Thursday. Arnie and I will be
back on Sunday night to recap all of the final
week of the NFL Action and watch live the vikings
and Ronie Frado's next on Fox Sports Radio.
Thanks for listening to The Jason Smith Show with Mike
Harmon podcast. Be sure to catch us live every weeknight
ten pm to two am Eastern seven to eleven pm
Pacific on Fox Sports Radio. Find your local station for
The Jason Smith Show with Mike Harmon at Foxsports Radio
dot com, or stream us live every night on the
iHeartRadio app by searching FSR.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Give.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio.
Speaker 4 (00:28):
And we are one step closer to the Final Four
in college football. As you heard from De Saga there,
Boise State is out, Penn State is moving on thirty
one to fourteen. The Nitney Lyons take out Boise State.
We got highlights and postgame coming up on a busy
busy might no no longer the Power Hour, right Arnie,
(00:51):
the Bonus Hours hours.
Speaker 5 (00:52):
We're at the Bonus Hour, Big.
Speaker 4 (00:54):
Boy Bonus Hour come to you live from the tire
rack dot Com studios. Tire rack dot Com will help
you get there an unmatched selection, fast free shipping, free
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New Year in the Central time Zone a God's time zone,
(01:15):
God's time zone in the Central time Zone. Do you
make New Year's resolutions by chance? I?
Speaker 6 (01:22):
You know, I used to, but ever since I became
pretty much perfect, right, there's nothing really to change about.
Speaker 4 (01:29):
Congrats all that.
Speaker 5 (01:30):
Yeah, I don't know what I would do differently, to
be honest with you.
Speaker 4 (01:33):
Well, one thing that we're debate.
Speaker 5 (01:35):
Maybe I could go lose a pound or two.
Speaker 4 (01:37):
Maybe. Okay, Well, congrats on perfection. Only one other guy
accomplished that and it didn't necessarily end so well for
him on this earth. Good luck, buddy. Here's a couple
of notes for you. We talked about resting starters. Yeah,
and Dan Campbell didn't do it and got away with it,
but claimed he was nervous, said he had his fingers crossed. Meanwhile,
(02:00):
on I guess Bill Belichick is still doing a radio program.
He had Jim Harbaugh on this week, And here's what
Jim Harbaugh and Bill Belichick said about making that decision
to rest starter.
Speaker 7 (02:11):
Here's the thing that that resonate right now is UH tarball,
you know, play the backups, you know, like that would
where we're gonna do dress twenty five guys you know
for the UH for the game.
Speaker 8 (02:23):
So yeah, that's what. That's what some people I think
have a hard time with is well, don't play your starters. Yeah,
I mean you can only have seven inactive guys. Who
are they? And it's tough to go to your team
and say, well, we're not going to play you guys
over here, but the rest of you get out there,
we don't really care about you. You know, if you
get that doesn't matter.
Speaker 5 (02:42):
But he's six or seven guys work.
Speaker 4 (02:45):
I like that. You don't guys going.
Speaker 5 (02:47):
To by the way.
Speaker 6 (02:48):
First of all, that shouldn't be even in your consideration.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
Where you go.
Speaker 6 (02:52):
We don't care about you. Nobody gives a damn whether
you care about me or not. I'm paying you millions
of dollars. You go out and play, whether I want
you to play or I or watch to play.
Speaker 5 (03:00):
I'm not hurt. I don't care if I hurt your feelings.
Speaker 6 (03:03):
If I want to sit everybody out, but the twelve
guys and I want you to play both ways, and.
Speaker 5 (03:07):
You're playing both ways. I don't give it to them.
Speaker 6 (03:09):
If I want an offensive lineman kicking field goals, you're
gonna gick them.
Speaker 5 (03:13):
That's why I'm paying you ten million dollars a year.
Speaker 4 (03:15):
Yeah, not everyone's making ten million dollars.
Speaker 5 (03:17):
Number one, well you're making millions.
Speaker 4 (03:19):
And number two. I don't think Bill Belichick ever cared
about how anyone else felt exactly exactly whatever he was
all of a sudden, he's like, well, I care about
how this guy feels. No, you don't. It's like one
of those where like, Okay, Bill, it's fine.
Speaker 6 (03:34):
I can see Barkley wanting to play because he wants
to break the record something like Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 5 (03:39):
As competitive as he.
Speaker 6 (03:40):
Is, I'm sure he could take it either way. He
can say, fine, if you want to rest us, let's
rest us. Though I get a feeling that there's some
kind of animosity between them and Denver that he.
Speaker 5 (03:51):
Wants to play the game.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
See that's what I dig I like the idea that
you would do something. I mean, go back, go back
to when the Browns made the play I remember that Cleveland,
and you made the playoffs and you actually won a
game with Baker Mayfield at your quarterback before you got
an adult in the Remember that Cleveland. The Pittsburgh Steelers
had a chance knock him out of the playoffs in
the final week of the season, and they they rested
(04:14):
their starters and Cleveland beat him made the playoffs.
Speaker 6 (04:19):
When you say resting your starters, how many people you
think you're talking about, by the.
Speaker 4 (04:22):
Way, quarterback, maybe a couple receivers, star running back and
and defensive players are.
Speaker 6 (04:30):
Maybe not even that much, to be honest with you,
Maybe just more of Mahomes And.
Speaker 4 (04:36):
Well you're talking about just Kansas City here.
Speaker 6 (04:38):
Yeah, Kansas City. I'm thinking Mahomes and patcheck go. And
that's really about it, right, because you want to keep
him healthy because you just got you.
Speaker 4 (04:45):
Don't care about Travis Kelcey or Chris Jones or Travis.
Speaker 5 (04:50):
Travis Kelsey that'd be the three i'd pretty much.
Speaker 4 (04:53):
So we're on rest right. Just that conversation real quick
and we'll move on. Nick Sirianni was asked, Hey, what's
what's the conversation you should like in deciding whether or
not you're going to rest your starters in the series
In the season finale, especially with Saquon Barkley chasing.
Speaker 9 (05:07):
History, everything's taken into account. You know, I'm going to
always do what's best for the team and the individuals
going for that, and I'm still thinking through a little
bit of this too. But something I haven't told the
guys yet, so I'll always let them know before I
let anybody else take into a lot to account. Again,
it's what's the best thing for the team, and then
also what's the best for the individuals that are going
(05:28):
for the record. You know, if you'd think back a
couple of years ago to twenty twenty one, Smitty was
going for the rookie receiving record. I think he was
going to break to Shawn Jackson's rookie receiving record, and
everybody else was resting. But we wanted for everyone else
whatever it was, we didn't we didn't play some other
guys in that game. We went and got him that record.
Every situation is a little different, not saying one way
(05:48):
or the other how that's going to play out, or
even that I've made the decision yet, But again, I
got to tell the guys first when I do come
to that decision, and I'll let you guys know. But
a lot goes into it.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
And there's one of the other way.
Speaker 5 (06:00):
Serious is saying no.
Speaker 4 (06:02):
Vegas is saying no on Sirianni on Saquon Barkley. What
did I say, Sirianni.
Speaker 5 (06:07):
Yeah, Siriah, he either.
Speaker 6 (06:08):
Saying no on Saquon Barkley, only was they have Philadelphia
is a three point favorite over the Giants in Philadelphia
any normal game, I'd be betting a gazillion dollars on Philadelphia,
especially if it was right.
Speaker 5 (06:23):
Oh, I'm not afraid the lay three points.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (06:25):
Here with Sirian, I think this is a different cut.
Sometimes it's just an edited version of the cut. So
if it is, I apologize. But here's what he said
when he was asked if Saquon Barkley would play.
Speaker 9 (06:35):
I'll talk to our staff. I'll talk to the players,
I'll talk to Howie you know, I'll talk to mister Lourie.
I'll talk to everybody and to try to make sure
I'm making the best decisions for the football team. And
that's your job as a head coach.
Speaker 4 (06:47):
I wouldn't risk I wouldn't risk it. I know it's history,
though it's so hard right He's he's going after the
single season rushing record, going after Mark and now Eric Dickerson.
Speaker 5 (06:58):
Is can they go up and down in seatings too
or no?
Speaker 4 (07:01):
They're locked in as the two?
Speaker 5 (07:02):
Okay, then I would probably sit everybody out also.
Speaker 4 (07:05):
So then but if you play, if you play, Saquon
can't sit any of your offensive line.
Speaker 5 (07:10):
Right, no, one, absolutely not.
Speaker 4 (07:14):
Yeah. My here is, do you want to get into
the playoffs?
Speaker 10 (07:17):
Sea?
Speaker 6 (07:17):
You have to get by the way Saquad Barkley has
to get with like one hundred yards, right.
Speaker 4 (07:21):
Yeah, it's not it's not five carries in twenty yards.
You know, you gotta you gotta breaks. You gotta break
one hundred yards in order to get it.
Speaker 6 (07:30):
That's gonna take a while. That means they're gonna have
to play most of the game.
Speaker 4 (07:33):
All right, So as it stands right now, Uh, you
want to do the NFC or the AFC first, as
far as the playoff picture is concerned, which the AFC?
Speaker 5 (07:42):
Because my Dolphins are gonna get an hopeful?
Speaker 4 (07:44):
Okay? Well boy, you really have gone back and forth
on this, havevage.
Speaker 6 (07:49):
I just want Kansas City to win so bad because
I know my Dolphins are gonna win no matter who's
at quarterback.
Speaker 5 (07:54):
And I told you two weeks ago my Dolphins were
gonna make it. You all laughed at me. I said,
don't laugh.
Speaker 6 (07:59):
They laughed at Einsine, And once again I turned out
to be just like Einstein.
Speaker 4 (08:05):
Well, you're not right yet, but there is a twelve
percent chance that you can make the playoffs.
Speaker 5 (08:12):
What Miami twelve percent?
Speaker 4 (08:14):
Twelve percent?
Speaker 5 (08:15):
It's got to be better than that.
Speaker 4 (08:16):
Six percent for the Bengals right now.
Speaker 5 (08:19):
Wow, if you really think it, Dever is gonna win.
Speaker 4 (08:22):
If you win, it's twenty two percent. So and again,
this is real simple. The Broncos win and they're in
in their season finale against Kansas City in Denver. The
Dolphins need to beat the Jets and have the Broncos
lose to the Chiefs. The Bengals need to win their
(08:43):
game and hope the Dolphins lose and the Broncos lose.
That's the battle for the final playoff spot as it stands.
Here's the rest of the seeding in the AFC. This
is ten and a.
Speaker 5 (08:57):
Half now, Broncos, is it real? Yeah?
Speaker 4 (09:01):
Yeah, they're not letting those They're not letting those starters
step on the field at all, are they?
Speaker 8 (09:05):
Oh?
Speaker 5 (09:06):
Any Kansas City is so bad?
Speaker 4 (09:08):
The Ravens can secure the three seed and the AFC
North title by beating the Browns on Saturday. But should
they lose to Cleveland, where what's that number? Wasn't it
like sixteen and a half or eighteen something.
Speaker 6 (09:21):
Like that for the Browns of the Ravens, yes, it
was eighteen.
Speaker 4 (09:26):
Oh. But if they lose to Cleveland, they can still
maintain the three seed in their current spot in the
playoff picture. With the Steelers loss of the Bengals, Pittsburgh
still has seating at stake even if the division race
is over by the time it kicks off, because if
the Steelers failed to win, if they lose again on
(09:48):
Saturday and the Chargers beat Vegas, Pittsburgh would drop to
the sixth seed. Yeah, exactly so in that scenario, instead
of playing the Texans on Super Bowl are Super wild
Card weekend, the Steelers would spend around one of the
playoffs in Baltimore. Not good. The Bills in Texans are
(10:10):
locked into the two and four seeds, respectively. The Bills
will welcome either the Broncos, the Bengals, or the Dolphins,
whoever clinches the seventh seed.
Speaker 5 (10:18):
You know they want the Dolphins.
Speaker 4 (10:21):
Oh, I don't think they want anything to do with
the Bengals. Well, Houston will host either the Ravens, Steelers
or Chargers, whoever ends up at the five. At the five,
the Bills the Chiefs and the Ravens are our massive
favorites to win. But there's kind of what the rest
of the AFC looks like. Any other questions are confused?
Speaker 5 (10:43):
What did you say the Bills the Chiefs are the Ravens.
They're not.
Speaker 4 (10:48):
The Chiefs are the one, the Bills are the two.
Speaker 5 (10:50):
Yeah, okay, I thought you met the game.
Speaker 4 (10:52):
Miss No, I'm sorry, Bills, the Chiefs are the one.
The Bills are the two. Sorry. And then the Ravens again.
They can lose and still be the three is kind
of what I was. They can lose and still end
up being the three if the Steelers lose. Now, if
the Steelers win and the Ravens lose, there's some weird
tiebreaker because they would have split their games against each other. Right,
(11:15):
there's some weird tiebreaker where I think Pittsburgh would get
the NOD. But let's not go down that road on Wednesday. Okay,
let's wait until we get a little bit closer to
Saturday when those two teams play to figure that one out.
I want to double check this too, because the Ravens
the Steelers. They beat the Ravens. Yeah, they beat the
Ravens eighteen to sixteen, and then lost to them in
(11:37):
Week sixteen thirty four to seventeen. So they've split the
regular season. And I want to say, because you brought
this up, it would go down to like the fifth
tie break.
Speaker 6 (11:46):
Yeah, they don't give you the tie breaker on that
one for some reason, so I'm thinking it has to
be something really weird.
Speaker 4 (11:51):
Yeah, it is on the anything else in the AFC
playoff picture, you wil move on to the NFC side.
Speaker 6 (11:57):
No, I was just looking to see what was the
money on Denver Kansas City, and I think Denver is
like minus three to one, so minus three hundred would
be the Broncos, which is absolutely crazy. I think I'd
have to take Kansas City to pull off the upset.
I mean, you're still talking about a fifteen to one team, right, geez,
(12:20):
I got to take the ten and a half points,
no matter who the hell they're playing.
Speaker 4 (12:24):
Right, I mean, they might not be playing starters, but
they've been known as Kansas City to even with a
backup quarterback, now not necessarily the last couple of seasons,
but I remember the last week of the season was
where Patrick Mahomes broke out. Carson Wentz is a guy
that he's bounced around a little bit. Maybe he's matured,
(12:47):
maybe he's learned a little bit more from Andy Reid.
So like a lock from the Giants, who Carson wentz, Yeah,
you already have him go to the Giants.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
No?
Speaker 6 (12:57):
No, like you know, like like the way Drew Locke
played with the Giants.
Speaker 4 (13:02):
Oh oh oh, I thought he were saying, I got
him as a lock going to the New York Giants
next year. So you've got him throwing for three hundred plus.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
No.
Speaker 6 (13:10):
No, like the same scenario, the same situation, you know,
like the same type of skills and that he could.
Speaker 5 (13:18):
He could pull it off for maybe, Kay, you don't
know what you're gonna get with him the last game?
Speaker 4 (13:22):
All right, here we go with the NFC. According to
every single thing out there, we know this, the Lions
and the Vikings will play Sunday night for the number
one overall seed.
Speaker 5 (13:35):
That's good.
Speaker 6 (13:35):
Otherwise the Vikings are going to be fourteen and three
with a five five seed.
Speaker 4 (13:40):
The winner receives the one seed, a playoff by and
they get their banner. The loser gets the fifth seed
and a trip to either La Tampa or Atlanta in
Round one. The Eagles in Er the weekend in what's
described by NFL dot Com and waits.
Speaker 5 (14:00):
Home field, and you're the Rams and you're welcoming in
the Lions.
Speaker 4 (14:04):
I feel good about my chances. Oh geez, I mean listen.
I think whoever ends up as the five is one
and done. I think whoever ends up in the five
is getting beaten in the first round of the playoffs.
I really do. Could change my mind depending on how
things look on Sunday, but for now that's where I'm feeling.
The Eagles have locked up the two seat. They'll host
(14:25):
either the Packers or the Commanders, whichever team ends up
at seven in the opening round of the tournament. Philly's
biggest I guess contribution to Week eighteen could be connected
to the NFL Draft. Could the Giants win and slip
further down the draft board Because the Giants are one
of only four teams left with a shot at the
(14:47):
number one overall pick. If they beat Philly, then they're
gonna slide down in like Vegas Raider territory. Right now,
I thought.
Speaker 6 (14:54):
They were done. I thought they had no chance. I
thought it was gonna be New England all the way.
Speaker 4 (14:57):
No, No, New England. Controls its own destiny for the
top overall pick and.
Speaker 5 (15:01):
Who they play the final weekend.
Speaker 4 (15:03):
I don't know the It's New England man, the the
the Patriots, the Giants, the Titans, and there was one
other team that still have a shot at the top
overall pick.
Speaker 5 (15:17):
But hey, pete, play the Bills. They're not going to
beat the Bills.
Speaker 4 (15:19):
Well, the Bills are going to rest their starters.
Speaker 5 (15:22):
They could rest everybody and they still win.
Speaker 4 (15:25):
And if you're the Patriots, are you really going out
there to try to win on that's gonna be? Will
you want to talk about the tank?
Speaker 6 (15:31):
Eleven drunk guys from their stadium and beat the Patriots.
And by the way, what's the situation for Drake.
Speaker 5 (15:37):
May and that in that game?
Speaker 4 (15:39):
I don't play him, I said him.
Speaker 5 (15:42):
I don't risk it right right, So got hurt? You
got hurt. That's why I'm asking.
Speaker 4 (15:47):
Oh you're asking about hurt.
Speaker 5 (15:48):
Live, Yeah, have a concussion, so be sud or not.
Speaker 4 (15:52):
I'm not playing him because I don't want to ruin
that draft. I mean, if you can talk about tanks
in with five weeks to go in the season, like
Raider fans like to do when it's the final game
of the year. That's a completely other store that story
in my mind. All right, can I finish this real quick? Yea, yeah, okay,
Commanders and Packers have already punched their tickets. Week eighteen
(16:12):
is all about playoff positioning. Here's numbers. A Washington win
or Green Bay loss would keep both clubs in their
current spots, and, by the way, according to NFL dot com,
that occurred in sixty eight percent of the simulations. However,
a Commander's loss plus a Packers win would flop the
(16:32):
two teams. So in that scenario, the Packers would go
to either La or Tampa and Philly. Yeah, then Philly
would be worrying about Washington. In the first round the
Seahawks and Rams was supposed to be for the division,
but obviously that already happens. Yeah, And the Bucks and
the Falcons will play each with an opportunity to win
(16:55):
the NFC South. If the Bucks win, they're the champs.
The Falcons need a win and a Bucks loss. Ravens
are a ninety six percent pick to win the AFC North.
The course part of that is playing Cleveland. The Lions
fifty nine percent to beat the Vikings. Tampa Bay eighty
(17:15):
nine percent over the Atlanta Falcons.
Speaker 6 (17:18):
Does it tell you the percentage for Kansas City Denver?
Speaker 4 (17:24):
Well, no, it doesn't have that, because I don't they're
not battling for a division. This was just the three
division percentages, right, Sorry, Arnie. I know you're concerned about
it because you think your your Dolphins are gonna get
in the playoffs and go to the super Bowl.
Speaker 5 (17:38):
But well, we are going to get to the playoffs.
Speaker 4 (17:41):
You already said an hour one, it's not gonna happen.
How'd you change your mind in three hours?
Speaker 5 (17:45):
That was three hours ago.
Speaker 4 (17:48):
Company live from the ti rack dot com studios. When
we come back, Fox Sports Radio's very own Bill Krackenberger
is going to join us as we get ready for
three games in the college football playoffs tomorrow and Week
eighteen in the National Football League. But first, I want
to tell you about myphdeweightloss dot com. You hear Jason
(18:10):
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That's my PhD weight loss. Myphdweightloss dot com.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Jason Smith
Show with Mike harmon weekdays at ten pm Eastern, seven
pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 4 (19:32):
Tarny and Plank and We're coming to you Alive from
the tire Raq dot Com studios in for Jason and Mike.
You ready to talk some gambling here, Arnie.
Speaker 5 (19:43):
I can't wait.
Speaker 6 (19:44):
I love talking the Bill Bill, I love looking at
his videos.
Speaker 5 (19:47):
Even tells you what slot machines to play when you
go to Vegas.
Speaker 4 (19:51):
I love, I love mad. That is what I call
insider information right there. Yeah, you hear here on Fox
Sports Radio. Bill Krackenberg coming up here here in mere moments.
A couple of quick tweets though, I like this point
from Jason right. The only problem for the Chiefs can
you go almost four weeks without your stars playing? And
now that is the only Yeah, that is the only
(20:12):
reason why I see coach read playing as starters. I mean,
sixteen and one means something maybe maybe twenty six days,
and if they plan on that Saturday, it would be
twenty five days. I don't know. Let's ask Bill what
he thinks. Bill Krackenberger joins us. You hear him here
on Fox Sports Radio. An incredible follow on Twitter at
Bill Krackman. Do you have any problems with the Chiefs
(20:33):
going twenty six twenty five days without their starters playing? Bill?
Do you think they should go a little bit on
Saturday or Sunday against the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (20:41):
Hey guys, well first time, how you guys doing mare,
Happy New Year? Yeah, yeah, I'm just I'm sitting here
in Vegas overlooking the strip, but in the safety of
my compound here because it's amateur night in Vegas, so
you gotta be careful out there. But I'm mind you back.
We have good views of the so from here. But anyway,
(21:02):
you know what's funny that game, That game's up to
eleven points now. And I actually told one of my partners,
I said, listen, I don't care who's quarterbacking in that
game and who's playing in that game. Eleven points is
just too much. Lots of these Kansas City backup guys
can start on some of these teams out there. I'm
(21:22):
sure New York over in New York, the Jets or Giants,
especially the Jets would love to have some of these
backup guys starting for them. But yeah, you know, that
is a long time to go in between. But you know,
I think Kansas City is really has a nice pass.
As a matter of fact, our sponsor bet MGM, they
had plus four to seventy five just a week ago
(21:43):
for Kansas City to win the Super Bowl. I usually
don't bet those type of bets because there's so much
juice involved in those type of but I just thought
that was pretty good value compared to the other teams.
And I searched around. I have a lot of places
to bet liveing in Vegas, and some of them had
like plus two and a half, the one plus four
to one, plus three to one, so almost five to one.
I'm still very confident with Kansas City. Patrick mahomes the
(22:07):
smartest quarterback in the NFL. Remember when he signed, I
was saying to myself, oh my god, I can't believe
they gave a quarterback that kind of money. Now he's
like fifth or sixth on the list, and but I'll
tell you he should be first because I think he
still has I think he is the best quarterback out there. Listen.
I know there's a lot of love for Allen now
he's getting tossed around, and even MVP talks is in that.
(22:30):
But I still have to go to the well here
where the guy that's a veteran quarterback at such a
young age, a veteran quarterback of Super Bowls, And that's
what it is. It takes it. You know, there's horses
for courses and he's one of them.
Speaker 6 (22:44):
You know, Bill, how did they put out How does
Vegas put out the line in Denver minus ten and
a half and Philadelphia minus three until or if he's
going to play it until the Year of the Chiefs
are definitely good.
Speaker 4 (22:59):
Yea, I think he's one. Know the numbers if put
out there not knowing whenever they're starters are going to
play or not. How challenging is that, Bill?
Speaker 2 (23:06):
Yeah, you know, these numbers come out Sunday night, a
week before the game. Most people don't realize that they
come out a week before the games, and so Sunday
night was a battle. Only two sports books in the
world put out lines, and all the rest of them
wait the copy. Normally they're up within fifteen twenty minutes
of seeing the originating sportsbooks. However, this Sunday night was
(23:28):
a funny thing. Only three put out lines. They waited
until Monday morning. I'll tell you it was a field
day for me here in Vegas with one of the sportsbooks. However, However,
if I only lived back East or wherever DraftKings was,
I fly back all the time to Connecticut, the Fox
with they have a DraftKings location there. Well, I tell
(23:50):
you they had some I don't want to say weak lines,
but they had some lines that differed from the sportsbook
here in Vegas that puts out some of the lines.
And they were off by three four points. Literally there
were four points middle four point middles if you had
both sports books up and you just didn't know who
(24:11):
was right. However, I think I got a pretty good
grasp on a couple of the games, and you mentioned
like the Philadelphia Giants game, the Giants were plus four.
I was so tempted to take the four points looking
at it now here in Vegas, Circa and stations both
have three, So that alone would be a good a
(24:33):
good thing to have the four points, I guess. But
I just can't trust the Giants, even though they beat
Indie last week, who was going for the playoffs, and
the Giants will lose that draft, that number one draft choice,
you know, and it is their rival, it is their kryptonite.
Is a Giants Philadelphia old rival game. By the way,
anyone listening over there, I would not be going into
(24:54):
the link in Philadelphia wearing any Giants here a one
you now even though you guys don't need the game
over there. But yeah, so that line, that line opened
up four down to three minus twenty here in Vegas
a couple three and a halfs the opposite of the
Kansas City Denver game. That game actually opened seven. So
I have the originally I have the originating line here
(25:15):
at tonight in front of me. That game opened that's seven.
This is the one I met that was four points off,
So it's seven here in town. It was eleven at DraftKings.
I was like, oh my god, a four point middle.
That is just something you put, you know, open up
the bankroll too. But it settled around eleven. DraftKings was right,
it settled around eleven here. I still like the dog there.
(25:37):
First of all, I'm not laying double digits with any
NFL team any week of the season. I have known
what has happened over the years. Just basic strategy. Basic,
You don't have to know anything. You don't have to
know the players' names, you don't have to know the
color of the uniforms. Basic strategy. Lifetime. Taking the double
digit point dogs is a winning strategy. Just ettingham, which
(26:00):
this week would be. Of course, there's a couple of
them though. The Saints, well, you can't say Chicago. Now,
Chicago was ten down to nine. Kansas City. The Baltimore game,
let me see that. What's that up to? Baltimore was
up to a ton of points. That's Saturday's game. It's
seventeen and a half eighteen, So you know you just here.
If Baltimore was winning by I'm going to even say
(26:23):
seventeen points. I'll even say twenty points in the end.
So the fourth quarter, they don't want to get anybody hurt,
they're not going to be I would think you pull
your star athletes for the playoffs. You know you have
the game at hand, and you know you never know
a backdoor touchdowner, even up by ten points where Cleveland's
already covered. I can't lay the double digits with any
of these teams.
Speaker 4 (26:44):
You're a guess. Bill Krackenberger on Countdown to Kickoff Sunday
Mornings with Brian No and our buddy Jeff Schwartz. That's
ten a to one p Eastern. As we get you
ready for kickoff. Leading up to the playoffs, Bill, I
wanted to ask you quickly about the college games we
saw Penn State take care of business tonight, anything kind
of jumping at you. I'm still surprised the Ohio State
(27:05):
line didn't move. I wonder if that's an overreaction to
their performance against Tennessee. But anything really jumping out at
you in the three playoff games tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (27:13):
I look forward to watching that Ohio State Oregon game
like with the rest of America. But I also want
America to know. This line's like an NFL line. Anyone
that bets these games a day of the game, it's
the hardest, most efficient line to get into. Therefore, you know,
every single media source covers these things. I've said this before.
I'm not a broken record, but I still want to
(27:35):
say it. I'm going to beat it into the ground.
Very hard to beat NFL sides of the day of
the game, very hard to beat games like the Sugar Bowl,
Rose bul each Bowl. These lines have been out for
a while here. I am kind of surprised that this
game actually here in town. The Sharp sports book that
takes a lot of money, I mean, whatever you want
(27:55):
to dump out on the counter tomorrow, they'll literally take
a million dollars from the Ohio They were this particular
sports book they have minus two and a half minus fifteen.
I'll tell you. I'll just listen. I know last time
they played it was think it was thirty two thirty one. Boy,
if this game went to three, I would even if
we could find some low hanging through at some of
(28:16):
the slower moving square sports books in this town that
gets lots of volume by the local crowds, I would
maybe jump in for a bet on Oregon plus the
three points. But everyone loves Ohio State. I get it. Listen,
everyone loved Detroit the Lions the other night. I'll just
tell you that MGM had four and a half minus fifteen.
(28:37):
At one time, they actually got hurt. We had the
director of oper the director on our on our show's
out on Sunday. Listen, they actually lost money. That's right,
they lost money to the game. I want to just
tell you ninety five percent of people that bet that
game bet Detroit sportsbooks definitely were hurting. Now listen, Bill
Krackenberger's not taking no collection for him. That's they destroyed
(28:58):
people the first five six to the years. However, same
thing here. I just don't know who's betting Oregon. Everyone
loves Ohio State. I ranted, of course, my coast. Jeff
Schwartz doesn't. He went to Oregon. But people love Ohio State.
In this town betting wise, everyone buckets and buckets and
money coming out. I was in the casino on the
(29:20):
strip the other day where someone came up and bet
two hundred thousand dollars on this game on Ohio State.
They want to do it two and a half. Yeah,
you know, it's funny. People in Vegas. It's amazing. They
love betting these marqueeth type and matchups and there are
if you have a baccarroll player or a big casino player,
you know they want to come in from the casino
(29:40):
and they have a million dollars swings on the weekend.
Well sure, if they want to been a million bucks
in Ohio State, the sportsbook obligated to take it.
Speaker 6 (29:48):
So very interesting, Bill, You sound like you're in a
good mood for somebody who lost out on fourteen point
six million.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
Yeah. I got knocked out with in the Indianapolis Colts
got knocked out. But and it's like any given day,
any given I have you know, I'm not trying to usual.
They don't brag about numbers, but I mean I have
swings like that every week. I'm a rare person in
the sports betting media that actually, you know, bets a
lot of money on games. So I have swings like
that over the weekends. And you have to be a professional.
(30:16):
You have to go on, go on to the next game,
know that there's going to be another game tomorrow. I
live in a gambling town. This is vice central, drinking, drugs,
woman and alcohol. It's a tough town. You have to be.
You have to have those skill set to know to
control yourself. It's really easy to chase after losing, getting
knocked out of you know, the survivor pool here. Really
(30:40):
needs to just go downstairs and you know, jumping across
the street here, and I live round the strip, so
you know, jump across the street. You know, role plays
in blackjack or baccara or crafts. It's really easy to do.
But you have to maintain that control and you have
to know tomorrow's another day.
Speaker 4 (30:55):
Do you hear that, Arnie? He actually bats on his picks,
not like you just throws him up in the You're
the man, crack Bill Krackenberger every single Sunday morning, Love
it man, appreciate your time, and Happy New Year. Enjoy
twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (31:10):
You guys very much, Happy safe helping the year to
both of you.
Speaker 5 (31:13):
Thank you, Happy New Year. Bill, Thank you very much.
Speaker 6 (31:15):
Man.
Speaker 4 (31:15):
I love Make sure you're following him on Twitter at
Bill Crackman with the kk R C K M A
N And if you haven't heard it, I love the
show with Jeff and Brian No and Jeff. The funny
thing Jeff Schwartz would told us. I get a chance
to work with Jeff quite a bit. I like Jeff
a lot. He is fired up about tomorrow Oregon guy
feels really good about it. He said, you'll be in
(31:37):
the middle of like a segment and all of a sudden,
crack will go. All right, guys, I just laid down
a wager on the over in Carolina because X, Y
and Z is happening there, and right away Brian Now
and Jeffeldon go that's their next bet because he's his
mind is constantly about trying to find an edge, and
he's very very smart, so fun listening to him.
Speaker 6 (31:59):
I've heard the talk to him before and he said
nothing they ability you there because I'm sorry, guys, I
was making a.
Speaker 5 (32:05):
Bat Yeah exactly, I'm making it bat. I'm sorry, I'd
advant attention.
Speaker 4 (32:10):
And then as soon as he gets done making the bat,
everyone else has got to make the beat too, exactly.
All right, Okay, we're on, all right, let's get let's
get a couple of these tweets of the show tonight,
and then we'll get Arnie's picks and we'll get out
of the way for our buddy Bernie Fratto to take
you through the first night of twenty twenty five. You
feel different in the new year. You feel like a
new you.
Speaker 6 (32:30):
Well I do, but till Frank just sent this in
new year, same spotty connection from Arnie. Can somebody get
Arnie some WiFi instead of eating that he's been using
since Soul five usually have a good connection. It's four
hours and uh, you know, I have a little bit
of like for two seconds it spot it out.
Speaker 5 (32:48):
Relax yourself, you.
Speaker 4 (32:49):
Know, it's more than two seconds. It's very uncomfortable because
you'll be in the middle of a question. Then you'll
pop back on to start talking like this and like,
what the hell just happened? Where did Arnie go? And
I'm sitting there waiting for it, and it's weird. I
think ty Shirt has done enough shows with you, and
I know that Shay has to where it'll get enough
(33:10):
of the conversation left out where it's not real clear
what you're asking, and then whenever you come back, we'll
get two more wards and you'll drop again and then
you're fine. That's the weird thing about it, because you'll
be talking, it'll it'll go ahead. But does it not?
Speaker 5 (33:27):
A lot doesn't happen a lot though during the four hours.
Speaker 4 (33:29):
So it hasn't happened a lot tonight and it's like
a once an hour thing.
Speaker 10 (33:32):
We can It's like enough to like like when it
happens again, you go, oh yeah, that that happens a
problem that happened before, but like not enough to be
like we should do something right.
Speaker 4 (33:44):
You know what. It's enough to where it's like, oh
yeah that happened, Not enough to where you're like, Arnie,
something's wrong. You need to fix your a quick.
Speaker 10 (33:50):
But we should we should probably I'll do something about that.
Figure Shae's gonna take you out there, you go, I'll
take you something about it. I'll tell Alex to take
care of it.
Speaker 4 (33:59):
So very important tweets we need to get to through
the night. Tennis data was first hit. He asked the question,
do the Eagles try to get Saquon Barkley? And how
about our excuse me, do the Eagles try to get
Saquon Barkley the record? And how about Kirk Kerbstreet getting
community noted on Twitter after getting salty when he was
reminded that he wanted Alabama in the playoffs. Let's go
(34:22):
to the first one you play. You play Saquon on Sunday.
Speaker 6 (34:26):
I think you do because he wants it, the team
wants it for him. Seems like everybody's rowing around him.
I think you play him and then once he gets it,
you pull everybody out.
Speaker 5 (34:37):
I think it's a win win situation.
Speaker 7 (34:39):
You know what.
Speaker 4 (34:40):
I agree with you, But I don't know if I
would say win win, I'll still be very nervous that
whole time whenever I'm sitting there watching things kind of
play out, regardless regardless of how it goes, Like should
I pull about now? How close is he the record?
Speaker 9 (35:00):
Like?
Speaker 4 (35:00):
Just give him the ball in the first thirty plays
of the game and then see how it goes from there.
As far as Herbie, Herbie had time for it tonight, man,
some people tried to come after him and he fired back.
So Kirk Kurbstreet was here in twenty twenty five to
fight with you on Twitter. Isaac Allen out of clarification, Arnie,
(35:22):
daylight savings is in the summer. We are not on
it currently. Daylight Savings starts in March, so it would
not affect football at all. If we get rid of
daylight savings. It means that nights in an hour early
and morning starts an hour early in summer.
Speaker 6 (35:39):
What would effect places that don't change your clocks like Arizona, Indiana, Indiana.
Speaker 4 (35:45):
That's true, and let's see there was one more here
it is Paul writes, My New Yars resolution is to
not tweet this show thirty times a week, demanding that
the Bills fire Sean McDermott. If they don't win the
AFC Championship, they'll still do it. I think you will,
all right when we come back, Arnie's picks will take
us home.
Speaker 3 (36:03):
On Fox Sports Radio, be sure to catch live editions
of The Jason Smith Show with Mike Harmon weekdays at
ten pm Eastern, seven pm Pacific. May.
Speaker 4 (36:14):
Yeah, Maddie New Year, Maddy New Year?
Speaker 3 (36:17):
May do you know the movie that's from Arnie Spanier.
Speaker 5 (36:22):
Eddie Murphy and trading places. Wow, listen to you, looking
proud of you right now.
Speaker 4 (36:30):
Little movies miffed on that it's a great movie by
some consider it a Christmas movie because I think there's
one scene where Dan atkroutzwear ye Santa uniform.
Speaker 5 (36:40):
Yeah, exactly?
Speaker 4 (36:42):
Did you consider Rocky for a Christmas movie? You know
Rocky four did take place on Christmas, the fight with
dragons on Christmas?
Speaker 5 (36:49):
I don't think so.
Speaker 8 (36:51):
No.
Speaker 4 (36:52):
A couple of quick tweets before we get to Arnie's picks.
Did you see Bill's tweet said happy New Year's thinking genius?
Been listening to you since in nineteen ninety eight?
Speaker 5 (37:03):
Oh my goodness, No, I've not. I didn't see that one.
Speaker 4 (37:05):
Where's that at? Well? There's a lot of numbers here,
he says, go Navy beat Army. Well obviously, Oh and
he added boomer sooner so he doesn't get he just
gets middle block.
Speaker 5 (37:15):
Have I been around that long? Nineteen ninety eight?
Speaker 4 (37:18):
I remember listening to you whenever I was a kid,
You silly Dodger Frank right, Thank you guys for being
on the air tonight, But just know the ball was
already dropped in New York two months ago. Aaron Judge,
Oh yeah, easy money. Right, your dysfunctional Dolphins and my
(37:40):
bungling Bengals battling once again, this time for the last
playoff spot. I'm gonna need the Joker Jets to beat you.
Speaker 5 (37:50):
I want so bad, so bad for Denver to lose
to Kansas City. I just I so badly want that
to happen.
Speaker 4 (37:59):
Chris, I'm sorry, I'm I'm sorry. I'm afraid it's not
gonna happen, but I'm sorry. And then finally, how about
these numbers leading right into your picks? Oh, we got time.
NFL favorites went one hundred and thirty three, one hundred
and twelve and six against the spread this year. NFL
(38:23):
favorites the last three weeks have gone thirty five and thirteen,
So they were ninety eight, ninety nine and six against
this spread prior to the last three weeks. Right, A
rash of favorites dominating of what's that insane? That's right,
(38:45):
A rash of favorites dominating a very recent phenomenon rather
than the full season, aligns with dregs going through the motions. So,
in other words, when people like what's going on with
Kansas City? What's going on with XYZ favorite this point? Hey,
just shine, Maybe they're not putting themselves with the energy
and the commitment they need to, because holy smokes, Arnie,
(39:08):
the favorites have been on fire over the last forty
eight games.
Speaker 6 (39:11):
Yep, they've been crushing it. That's why the books did
horrible in the last couple of weeks. They've been getting
clabbored after the favorites have been winning.
Speaker 4 (39:21):
Well are you ready you put a rap on this
with your picks? Take it away, stinking genius.
Speaker 6 (39:26):
I am seven and er on Sunday last week, which
means you were about ninety to one to get all.
Speaker 5 (39:33):
Seven right, Well, you all see a boatload of money
off me?
Speaker 4 (39:40):
Who made a boatload of money off you?
Speaker 5 (39:42):
Everybody did?
Speaker 4 (39:43):
Everybody did? All right? Well, where are you starting tonight?
Speaker 6 (39:46):
I'm taking Texas minus the thirteen against Arizona State. It's
a lot of points, but I don't believe Arizona State
can keep up with Texas. Texas should get out to
a big lead and then they're running game's gonnassault it away.
Arizona State won't be able to keep it up. I'll
take Texas minus the third team. Give me Oregon plus
(40:07):
d two and a half against Ohio State. This one
is going to be a unbelievable game, may come down
to the last possession, and I'm hoping we get a
good close game on this one.
Speaker 5 (40:17):
Also, this next game was.
Speaker 6 (40:20):
Tough, but I'm gonna take Georgia minus the one or
whatever it is one. I think it's one, not one
and a half against No.
Speaker 5 (40:27):
Tre Dame.
Speaker 6 (40:28):
We'll see how they do with their new quarterback. And
now the Carson becks out, so we'll see how that happens.
But I'm gonna take Georgia mines to one. I'm still
gonna take Kansas City plus the eleven. I think that's ridiculous.
I'm hoping they win so badly, and I know the
Dolphins will crush the Jets, so lay the points there.
Speaker 5 (40:49):
So there you have my picks.
Speaker 6 (40:50):
Do with them as you please, no longer strictly for
entertainment purposes, only you you think.
Speaker 4 (40:56):
We're gonna at least get a good game tomorrow out
of one of those three. I think two of them
are gonna be really good, don't you.
Speaker 6 (41:02):
I think the Oregon Ohio State will be good, and
I think Georgia Notre Dame will be good.
Speaker 4 (41:05):
I think Georgia Notre Dame will be really fun tomorrow night.
I don't know about Gunner. I don't know what Gunner
Stockton is gonna look like for a full game. But
I love his juice, I love his swagger. Whenever he
came in and that SEC championship gave them up, everyone
rallied around him. I think it's gonna be fun all right. Well,
happy twenty twenty five, New year to you, my friend.
(41:27):
I hope you'll hope you enjoy Yeah, and everybody that's
tuned in all year long. Jason and Mike, I think
they're coming back on Thursday. Arnie and I will be
back on Sunday night to recap all of the final
week of the NFL Action and watch live the vikings
and Ronie Frado's next on Fox Sports Radio.
Hosts And Creators
Jason Smith
Mike Harmon
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