Mike's Minute: The Government have read things right

So, one poll tells us something by not really moving and another poll tells us something by being badly misrepresented. 

The TV1 news numbers last night show that essentially the Government is travelling well, most parties are stable, the Greens are down a bit, but its all, so far, within the margin of error. Nothing really has changed. 

What that tells you is broadly a couple of things. The first is at this stage of the electoral cycle people don’t pay as much attention as they will be in 18 months' time. 

The second is the Government, with its level of support, is doing basically what they said they would, and most people are happy. 

The other poll was on race relations. TV1 promoted the fact only 10% think the Government is improving them, but 46% think they are damaging them. 

What they didn’t give the appropriate prominence to was the fact 37% think it's not making any difference. In other words, despite all the noise and hot air being drummed up by radicals and the media, most of us aren't engaged because nothing really is changing. 

If you take the 37% who see no change and the 10% who see an improvement you have 47%, which is in fact more people thinking things are either neutral or better, as opposed to the 46% who think they are worse. 

This of course ties into why the Government numbers overall haven't moved and their support remains strong. The so-called drama around Māori policy is not actually politically damaging. 

You will note the numbers weren't presented that way by the state-run broadcaster. A good question might be: why not? 

What moves needles is the economy and on that we might be in for an improvement. If we are, what you will then see is the polling numbers most definitely shift in the Government's favour. 

Māori relations have been tested and testy my entire life. The previous Government bent over backwards for Māori, their beliefs, needs and causes, and look where it got them. 

The current Government have read things right. Outcomes are what count, whether in race relations or the economy. 

The numbers broadly show they are on the right side of both. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
One pole tells of something last night by not really moving,
and another pole tells of something by being badly misrepresented.
Now the one news numbers last night show essentially the
government traveling well, most parties are stable, The Greens are
down a bit for obvious reasons, but it's all so
far within the margin of error. Really nothing's changed. What
that tells you is broadly couple of things. One, at
the stage of the electoral cycle, people don't pay as

(00:21):
much attention as they will be in eighteen months time,
and two, the government, with its level of support, is
doing basically what they said they would and most people
are pretty happy with it. The other pole was on
race relations. TV one promoted the fact only ten percent
think the government is improving them forty six percent think
they're damaging them. What they didn't give the appropriate prominence too,
was the fact that thirty seven percent think it's not

(00:43):
making any difference at all. In other words, despite all
the noise and hoty are being drummed up by the
radicals and the media, most of us aren't engaged because
nothing is really changing. So if you take the thirty
seven who see no change and the ten percent who
see an improvement. You've got forty seven, which is in
fact more people thinking things raither neutral or better, as

(01:03):
opposed to the forty six percent who think they're worse,
which of course ties in with why the government numbers
overall haven't moved and their support remained strong. The so
called drama around Maori policy is not actually politicularly damaging
at all. You will note the numbers weren't presented that
way by the state run broadcast. A good question might
be why not what moves needles is the economy and

(01:24):
on that we might be in for an improvement and
if we are, what you will then see in the
polling is polling numbers most definitely shifting in the government's favor.
Maori relations have been tested and testing my entire life.
The previous government bent over backwards for Maori, their beliefs,
their needs, their causes, and look where that got them.
The current government have read the things right. Basically, outcomes

(01:45):
are what really count, whether in race relations or the economy.
The numbers broadly show they're on the right side of both.
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