Mike's Minute: The beginning of the end for Hipkins

It's only when you read the full detail in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll that you start to get a feel for where the Government currently sits. 

Firstly, the poll is for corporate clients and reportage is usually limited to a few basic numbers, i.e. National up or down a point and added together that means “x” number of seats in the house. 

The full report has the gold and everyone in corporate New Zealand will be seeing that this current Government is on somewhat of a roll. 

Here is the really worrying thing for the opposition parties; these numbers are produced at a time the economy is still rubbish and it's entirely possible we are still in a recession. 

So, the things for Labour, especially, to worry about: 

1. The coalition have 67 seats, which is an easy majority. 

2. Every single issue, bar one, they are more trusted on. In areas like the economy and spending, the Government wins by a mile, so much that the gap is embarrassing. The only area Labour claim victory is poverty and even then it's by a single point. 

3. The right way/wrong way tracker has turned in spectacular fashion since the election. Many argue this is the true indication of Government support. If you get the country going right, you're in every time. 

4. The Labour leader's popularity has tanked. The favourable/unfavourable numbers have cratered. Chris Hipkins isn't liked, isn't backed and is, as they say in America, under water. 

Now, fair is fair, it's just a poll, not an election 

But get some steam into the economy, get a growing level of confidence as the Reserve Bank cuts rates and people start to spend and feel good again, get some real growth into proceedings and it's at that point any Government of the day starts to feel like they are re-electable. 

We have seen this past week the seeds, the shoots of progress; the crime stats, the increasingly determined action around the Treaty, the reportage of schools talking of a change of culture after a phone ban. These are small, but tangible, wins. 

If by the end of next year the economy is back, and the rest of the tangibles are falling into place, an opposition will have very little left in which to enter election year with. 

And Chris Hipkins won't just be under water, he will be out of a job. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So it's only when you read the full detail and
the latest taxpayer union career poll that you start to
get a feel for where the current government sits. Firstly,
the polls for corporate clients, reportage is usually limited to
a few basic numbers, i e. The nats are up
or down a point and added together that means x
number of seats for the House. So the full report
that's got the gold and everyone in corporate New Zealand

(00:20):
will be seeing that this current government is on somewhat
of a roll. And here's the really worrying thing for
the opposition parties. These numbers are produced at a time
the economy is still rubbish and it's entirely possible we're
still in a recession. So things for labor especially to
worry about. One, the Coalition have sixty seven seats, that's
an easy majority. Two every single issue bar one they're

(00:41):
now more trusted on. In areas like the economy and spending,
the government win by a mile. The gap is embarrassing.
The only area of Labour claim victory in nowadays's poverty,
and even then they only claim it by one point three.
The Right Way Wrong Way tracker has turned in spectacular
fashion since the election. Many argue this is the true
indication of government support. Get the cups country going right.
You're in every time for the Labour leader's popularity has

(01:04):
tanked the favorability. Unfavorable numbers have created Chris Hepkins isn't liked,
isn't backed. Is, as they say in America, underwater. Now
fair is fairs just a poll, not an election. But
get some steam into the economy, get a growing level
of confidence as the Reserve Bank cuts those rates and
people start to spend and feel good again. Get some
real growth and proceedings, and it's at that point any

(01:25):
government of the day starts to feel like they're re electable.
We've seen this past week the seats, I mean, the
shoots of progress, those crime stats, the increasingly determined action
around the treaty, the reportage of schools talking of this
change of culture after a phone ban. These are small
but tangible wins. If by the end of next year
the economy is back and the rest of the tangibles

(01:46):
are falling into place, an opposition will have very very
little left in which to enter election year with, and
Chris Hepkins won't just be underwater. You'll be out of
a job. For more from the mic Asking Breakfast, listen
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