October 7, 2024 • 12 mins
The rubber has hit the road in the US Election.
Just one month out from voting, the debates have been wrapped up and the only thing left is for the candidates to continue campaigning.
It’s a tight race, with Kamala Harris maintaining a narrow lead in key battleground states.
Former US Correspondent Nick Bryant told Mike Hosking that Harris has turned out to be a better candidate than many expected.
He said that while there has been some mixed messaging and Harris has some weaknesses, she is a strong candidate.
Trump is also struggling with messaging, Bryant says.
The former President doesn’t seem to be as strong a candidate as he was in 2016, and he’s not as sharp or articulate as he used to be.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Two months ago, a couple of assassination attempts, any number
of ongoing court cases, several debates, one involving a candidate
no longer in the race, and polls that are so
tight you can't separate Harris from Trump. So let's get
a feel for where we think we might be at
with our favorite America watching Nick Bryant, who's back with us?
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Nick?
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Morning to you.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Hey, Mike, we're at the point where the rubber meets
the road.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
That's exactly right. Since we last talked, what are your
thoughts on Harris as a candidate.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Well, I think she's a lot better candidate than we
thought she was going to be. I mean, it was
all this Carmela Mania stuff that came as a real surprise.
I mean, Mike, a lot of people when Joe Biden
really sort of destroyed himself in that first televised debate
with Donald Trump really thought that KRMLA wasn't ready for
prime time. They were thinking of people like the California
(00:46):
Governor Gavin Newson. They were thinking of people like the
Michigan governor Gretchen Whittner, a woman who's proven that she
can do well in the Ross belt obviously as vice
president as the supposed next in line. Karmala Harris was
on that list, but a lot of people didn't want
it to end up the nominee, including I think people
like Barack Obama who were mooting the possibility of some
(01:06):
sort of nominating process that was shorthand for saying, let's
not go with Kamala. I think they were worried about
two really big negatives in their mind. At least one
was her gender and one was her race. I mean,
I think there are a lot of people who were
worried that a black woman could not win those crucial
states in the Rust Belt. But Mike, I mean, she
really surprised people. I mean, then it started off with
(01:28):
the speed at which she got the nomination. I think
that showed that she was a politician to be reckoned with.
I think people started looking at her anew They thought
it was crazy that she'd been hidden away really for
the first two years of the Biden presidency. And I
think on the very night Mike, there was a turning point.
She did an interview with Alison Cooper on CNN very
shortly after but Biden's disastrous poll of debate performance. She
(01:52):
came across very well. She admitted what we'd all seen
that it wasn't a very good performance. She was commanding.
She sat in front of American flags, look presidential. She's
sounded presidential, I think in a lot of verde As
by as that was when the turnaround began. I think
she is strong, but I do think she still has weaknesses,
particularly on the economy and particularly on immigration.
Speaker 1 (02:11):
All Right, A couple of things out of that, as
separating herself out from the Biden record, and Trump is
making much of this at the moment. If you want
to do all of this, how come you haven't done
it in the last three and a half years. It's
not an unfair attack, is it.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:24):
I think she beat them in a televised debate. But
I think his strongest response and his strongest statement, was
right at the end where he said, you've been speaking
about all these things you want to do, but you've
had four years to do them, so why haven't you
done them? I think that is a statement that really resonates.
She's trying to come across as a change candidate. Obviously,
in an election where people do want change, Trump has
(02:45):
a harder thing to persuade people on because he was
the president four years ago. I think one of the
problems that Krmala Harris has it's the same problem in
some ways that Al Gore had in two thousand. He
tried to distance himself with Bill Clinton, and in doing so,
he distanced himself stuff that was good a parat the
Clinton presidency. He was so keen to distance himself from
(03:06):
the sort of scandal and the Monica Lewitsky side of
the Clinton presidency that he didn't embrace the good, which
was a really strong economy. And I think to a
certain extent, Karmala Harris says the same problem. She's trying
to distance herself from Biden. She's trying to say I'm
the change candidate, and that makes perfect sense. But there
are some stuff that's happening in the Biden administration which
is good, and I think, you know, you've got to
kind of trust the American electure on stuff like this.
(03:26):
They can differentiate what's good and what's bad. I mean,
the economy is coming out of a slump. You know,
the job numbers last week with very good inflation is
coming down. I realized the felt economy for a lot
of voters doesn't feel the same. There's a lot of
nostalgia for the Trump economy, lower interest rates, lower gas prices.
But I think it's a tricky one for Karmala to
sort of say, you know, there are some good things
(03:47):
that have happened during the Biden presidency, and there are
things I need to distance myself from, and that leads
to some of the mixed messaging and on questions like
the economy, Mike, I mean, this just strikes me as
just amazing. She still hasn't got a brilliant, really well
home wrestle answer that simple question, what do you do
to solve the cost of living crisis?
Speaker 2 (04:04):
What do you do? On the economy?
Speaker 3 (04:05):
She does serve up these word salads on that basic
question when she'd have thought she'd have figured out by it.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
Oh exactly. So I'm going to come to a thing
called the Breakthrough, which is a polling project that tracks
how public perceive and what they hear on this. But
one of the things they are saying about her is
she doesn't actually say anything. She just gibbles. Is that
true or fear or not.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
It's a real problem for her.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
I think during that debate performance, right, she was in
excellent form. I thought that the messaging was pretty sharp.
The one problem I thought she had was in the
first question, which was the economy. And the problem for
Kamanda Harris, of course, is the economy is the paramount
issue for most focus It's more important than what happened
on January the sixth, It's more important than what's happening
in the Middle East right now. It is more important
(04:49):
than abortion. It is the single most important issue. And
I think on that she hasn't got a particularly good answer.
They pursued a media strategy up until this week, really,
which is to not do much for media, and I
think that's been a real problem because she just doesn't
sad match for it.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
You know what it's like make.
Speaker 3 (05:04):
The more you do it, the more fluid you get.
You get into kind of responses that are familiar. You've
used them before, You've used formulations that work. And the
problem with the media strategy, she hasn't had the chance
to do that. I thought she was very good when
she came out of the gate. She went straight to Wisconsin,
which is one of the key states. She gave that
(05:24):
great line, you know, I'm a prosecutor, I've dealt with cheats.
I've topped with felons. I'm used to Donald Trump's type.
That was very good messaging and it really cut through
a straight away. But I think the message on the
economy has been really, really poor. And her messaging on immigration,
which is another key, is she hasn't been great either.
And I think you know, if you're looking for the
(05:45):
weaknesses in the in the Biden camp, I think that's
that's a really huge weakness.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
All right, So trump nick last time the argument was
he's got the vote that he's got. They love them,
they're elected on, they're rested on. He's not growing it.
Is that still true?
Speaker 3 (06:01):
Yeah? I mean he does have this senling doesn't hear
forty seven percent, it seems, and that may be enough
to win the president's seaman. Let's face it, they've got
an electoral college advantage. I mean, Trump won't win the
nationwide vote, i'd have thought, but he could win the presidency,
as he did in twenty sixteen, by winning the key
states that you need to win, and in that election,
of course, it was the Roughs Belt. I don't think
Donald Trump's as strong a candidate as he was in
(06:23):
twenty sixteen. We were talking about the problems with Carmla
Harris's messaging. I think Trump has them too. I mean,
he's just not as articular, he's not as sharp, he's
not as match fit as he was in twenty sixteen. Crucially,
he's not doing so many rallies. He's doing a really
small number compared to what he did in twenty and sixteen.
I think sometimes presidential election is a little bit like sport, Mike,
(06:45):
the person who shows they are desperate to win it
and king to win it often wins it. And I
just don't get that same hunger for victory in twenty
twenty four that Trump had in twenty sixteen. And that's
reflected in the number of rallies that he's doing. And
he's an old man, and I mean he's seventy eight
years old now, and obviously the age issue in this
election has been completely upended. It was the thing that
(07:05):
obviously force Biden from the race, but now it's a
problem for Donald Trump as well. He just doesn't seem
to be quite as strong a candidate as he was
in twenty sixteen. And he does have this problem about
growing the base. And I mean, Mike, it's such a
close race, now, isn't it. I mean, it's just all
down to these seven states. And I mean, of those seven,
(07:27):
I keep on looking at those restpot states and Wisconsin,
Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Speaker 2 (07:31):
The race is just so tight there. It does look
like Kamena Harris has a slight advantage at the moment.
But we're talking about shifts of just a few thousand votes.
We're talking about who can get their vote out.
Speaker 3 (07:41):
You know, one of the things that Trump always thinks
is that there are people out there who don't ordinarily vote,
many of them young men, who they hope can get
to the polls, And anything that happens in the next
few weeks, anything that just shifts a few votes in
a few different places, could have the impact to actually
decide this race.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
Old October Surprise Wall's v vance. Have they made a
material difference or not?
Speaker 2 (08:05):
I thought it was a really interesting debate.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
I think we found out that Tim Walls perhaps isn't
the kind of huge bonus to the Democratic ticket that
we thought he was Initially. I was surprised how in
particular he was who sort of seen a bit gaff prone,
didn't he when he said he sort of befriended mass shooters,
that kind of weird thing.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
He wasn't sort of.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
He emerged as this sort of great communicated didn't he
the kind of America's dad, the high school football coach,
the Friday night lights thing. And of course, you know
JD Vance was sort of characterized as this kind of
oversized frat boy, you know, somebody who was really nasty
or the childless cat laders. I mean, he came out
just trying to show there's no more mister nasty guy,
didn't he? He had this nice guy persona.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
But that final.
Speaker 3 (08:46):
Question, I mean, I think for ninety minutes in the
debate he was totally on top. But it was that
final question about Jeremy the sixth, wasn't it, And that
final refusal to accept that button had actually won in
twenty twenty, that is the clip that has sort of
survived the debate and had the big after life after
the debate. So I think, you know, as I say,
anything that shifts the dial in this election. Normally vice
(09:08):
presidential debates don't matter at all, but I think that
one could because I think a lot of women, especially
are really not that keen on Jady Vance and often Mike.
It just comes down to wavering women. A lot of
them who live in these suburbs of the rost belt
states like Philadelphia, like Milwaukee.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
You know, a lot of them just don't like JD.
Speaker 3 (09:26):
Vance and that could be crucial, especially his answers on abortion,
which is another issue which is going to drive a
lot of vote for Kamla Harris.
Speaker 1 (09:33):
So, I take it from your comment to RIDERPEC yesterday suggested,
it's not unlikely, it's not impossible that you could get
a result on the night college vote of two seventy
to two sixty eight. It's that tight. Do you see that?
Speaker 3 (09:44):
Yeah? And this is really crucial because that would involve
a state that we don't often talk about, which is Nebraska.
Forty eight out of the fifty states might a lot.
They're electoral votes on the basis of win it takes all.
If you win just one vote more than your rival
in Pennsylvania, you get all of Pennsylvania's nineteen electoral college votes.
There are two states that don't do that, Nebraska and Maine. Now,
(10:06):
there is one congressional district in May in Nebraska Omaha.
The second congressional district which went Democrat in twenty and twenty,
and what the Republicans has been trying to do is
change the rule so that Nebraska becomes a winner.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
It takes all the state.
Speaker 3 (10:22):
It's a reliabie red state that would deliver all of
its electoral college votes to Donald Trump. But there was
an attempt last month to change the rules, and one
Republican decided that the rules should stay the same. And we
talk about the blue dot. This one electoral college vote
in Nebraska that is based on a congressional district. And
(10:44):
it looks like Kamala Harrison will win Omaha, which is
that congressional district, and that could tilt her from two
sixty nine to two seventy. Two seventy is a magic
number you need to win. So we look at these
seven states, but let's not forget Nebraska as well, because
if she won those three Roust Belt states, right Wisconsin, Michigan,
and Pennsylvania, that gets it to two sixty nine. The
(11:07):
thing that gets her over the top is that one
blue dot in Nebraska.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
Everything matters, Mike, in this final stage.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
Does not just And I asked you last time we interviewed.
I said, last question, call it and you wouldn't you
couldn't any change.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
No, not at all.
Speaker 3 (11:20):
I think anybody who tells you with any certainty who's
going to win in this stage isn't worth listening to.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
I you know, we could have more October surprises.
Speaker 3 (11:28):
Frankly, I think the October surprise in the twenty twenty
four election came in twenty twenty three with the Hammer
attack on Israel. I think the ramifications of that are
still working through. I think Benjamin Ett Yahoo could end
up having quite an impact on this election, depending what
happens in Iran. And it's not only the turmoil in
the Middle East politically, it's the impact economically. You know,
(11:50):
there's a spiking gas prices before the election. Again that
nostalgic feeling about the Trump economy comes into play again.
You know, there are so many things that could impact
this race between.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Now and then.
Speaker 3 (12:01):
As I said, I've been saying this all year, Mike,
it's just a few thousand votes in a few states,
but that'll decide the selection.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
Who can get out the vote. It's a squeaker, it's
gonna be a photo.
Speaker 1 (12:10):
Finish'm gonna have to get you on again talk so Mike,
appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
As always.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
Nick Brian out of Australia in the early Hours and
Australian Morning. His latest book as the Forever War. If
you haven't read that, well worth it. For more from
the mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks it'd
be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
Two months ago, a couple of assassination attempts, any number
of ongoing court cases, several debates, one involving a candidate
no longer in the race, and polls that are so
tight you can't separate Harris from Trump. So let's get
a feel for where we think we might be at
with our favorite America watching Nick Bryant, who's back with us?
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Nick?
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Morning to you.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Hey, Mike, we're at the point where the rubber meets
the road.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
That's exactly right. Since we last talked, what are your
thoughts on Harris as a candidate.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Well, I think she's a lot better candidate than we
thought she was going to be. I mean, it was
all this Carmela Mania stuff that came as a real surprise.
I mean, Mike, a lot of people when Joe Biden
really sort of destroyed himself in that first televised debate
with Donald Trump really thought that KRMLA wasn't ready for
prime time. They were thinking of people like the California
(00:46):
Governor Gavin Newson. They were thinking of people like the
Michigan governor Gretchen Whittner, a woman who's proven that she
can do well in the Ross belt obviously as vice
president as the supposed next in line. Karmala Harris was
on that list, but a lot of people didn't want
it to end up the nominee, including I think people
like Barack Obama who were mooting the possibility of some
(01:06):
sort of nominating process that was shorthand for saying, let's
not go with Kamala. I think they were worried about
two really big negatives in their mind. At least one
was her gender and one was her race. I mean,
I think there are a lot of people who were
worried that a black woman could not win those crucial
states in the Rust Belt. But Mike, I mean, she
really surprised people. I mean, then it started off with
(01:28):
the speed at which she got the nomination. I think
that showed that she was a politician to be reckoned with.
I think people started looking at her anew They thought
it was crazy that she'd been hidden away really for
the first two years of the Biden presidency. And I
think on the very night Mike, there was a turning point.
She did an interview with Alison Cooper on CNN very
shortly after but Biden's disastrous poll of debate performance. She
(01:52):
came across very well. She admitted what we'd all seen
that it wasn't a very good performance. She was commanding.
She sat in front of American flags, look presidential. She's
sounded presidential, I think in a lot of verde As
by as that was when the turnaround began. I think
she is strong, but I do think she still has weaknesses,
particularly on the economy and particularly on immigration.
Speaker 1 (02:11):
All Right, A couple of things out of that, as
separating herself out from the Biden record, and Trump is
making much of this at the moment. If you want
to do all of this, how come you haven't done
it in the last three and a half years. It's
not an unfair attack, is it.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:24):
I think she beat them in a televised debate. But
I think his strongest response and his strongest statement, was
right at the end where he said, you've been speaking
about all these things you want to do, but you've
had four years to do them, so why haven't you
done them? I think that is a statement that really resonates.
She's trying to come across as a change candidate. Obviously,
in an election where people do want change, Trump has
(02:45):
a harder thing to persuade people on because he was
the president four years ago. I think one of the
problems that Krmala Harris has it's the same problem in
some ways that Al Gore had in two thousand. He
tried to distance himself with Bill Clinton, and in doing so,
he distanced himself stuff that was good a parat the
Clinton presidency. He was so keen to distance himself from
(03:06):
the sort of scandal and the Monica Lewitsky side of
the Clinton presidency that he didn't embrace the good, which
was a really strong economy. And I think to a
certain extent, Karmala Harris says the same problem. She's trying
to distance herself from Biden. She's trying to say I'm
the change candidate, and that makes perfect sense. But there
are some stuff that's happening in the Biden administration which
is good, and I think, you know, you've got to
kind of trust the American electure on stuff like this.
(03:26):
They can differentiate what's good and what's bad. I mean,
the economy is coming out of a slump. You know,
the job numbers last week with very good inflation is
coming down. I realized the felt economy for a lot
of voters doesn't feel the same. There's a lot of
nostalgia for the Trump economy, lower interest rates, lower gas prices.
But I think it's a tricky one for Karmala to
sort of say, you know, there are some good things
(03:47):
that have happened during the Biden presidency, and there are
things I need to distance myself from, and that leads
to some of the mixed messaging and on questions like
the economy, Mike, I mean, this just strikes me as
just amazing. She still hasn't got a brilliant, really well
home wrestle answer that simple question, what do you do
to solve the cost of living crisis?
Speaker 2 (04:04):
What do you do? On the economy?
Speaker 3 (04:05):
She does serve up these word salads on that basic
question when she'd have thought she'd have figured out by it.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
Oh exactly. So I'm going to come to a thing
called the Breakthrough, which is a polling project that tracks
how public perceive and what they hear on this. But
one of the things they are saying about her is
she doesn't actually say anything. She just gibbles. Is that
true or fear or not.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
It's a real problem for her.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
I think during that debate performance, right, she was in
excellent form. I thought that the messaging was pretty sharp.
The one problem I thought she had was in the
first question, which was the economy. And the problem for
Kamanda Harris, of course, is the economy is the paramount
issue for most focus It's more important than what happened
on January the sixth, It's more important than what's happening
in the Middle East right now. It is more important
(04:49):
than abortion. It is the single most important issue. And
I think on that she hasn't got a particularly good answer.
They pursued a media strategy up until this week, really,
which is to not do much for media, and I
think that's been a real problem because she just doesn't
sad match for it.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
You know what it's like make.
Speaker 3 (05:04):
The more you do it, the more fluid you get.
You get into kind of responses that are familiar. You've
used them before, You've used formulations that work. And the
problem with the media strategy, she hasn't had the chance
to do that. I thought she was very good when
she came out of the gate. She went straight to Wisconsin,
which is one of the key states. She gave that
(05:24):
great line, you know, I'm a prosecutor, I've dealt with cheats.
I've topped with felons. I'm used to Donald Trump's type.
That was very good messaging and it really cut through
a straight away. But I think the message on the
economy has been really, really poor. And her messaging on immigration,
which is another key, is she hasn't been great either.
And I think you know, if you're looking for the
(05:45):
weaknesses in the in the Biden camp, I think that's
that's a really huge weakness.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
All right, So trump nick last time the argument was
he's got the vote that he's got. They love them,
they're elected on, they're rested on. He's not growing it.
Is that still true?
Speaker 3 (06:01):
Yeah? I mean he does have this senling doesn't hear
forty seven percent, it seems, and that may be enough
to win the president's seaman. Let's face it, they've got
an electoral college advantage. I mean, Trump won't win the
nationwide vote, i'd have thought, but he could win the presidency,
as he did in twenty sixteen, by winning the key
states that you need to win, and in that election,
of course, it was the Roughs Belt. I don't think
Donald Trump's as strong a candidate as he was in
(06:23):
twenty sixteen. We were talking about the problems with Carmla
Harris's messaging. I think Trump has them too. I mean,
he's just not as articular, he's not as sharp, he's
not as match fit as he was in twenty sixteen. Crucially,
he's not doing so many rallies. He's doing a really
small number compared to what he did in twenty and sixteen.
I think sometimes presidential election is a little bit like sport, Mike,
(06:45):
the person who shows they are desperate to win it
and king to win it often wins it. And I
just don't get that same hunger for victory in twenty
twenty four that Trump had in twenty sixteen. And that's
reflected in the number of rallies that he's doing. And
he's an old man, and I mean he's seventy eight
years old now, and obviously the age issue in this
election has been completely upended. It was the thing that
(07:05):
obviously force Biden from the race, but now it's a
problem for Donald Trump as well. He just doesn't seem
to be quite as strong a candidate as he was
in twenty sixteen. And he does have this problem about
growing the base. And I mean, Mike, it's such a
close race, now, isn't it. I mean, it's just all
down to these seven states. And I mean, of those seven,
(07:27):
I keep on looking at those restpot states and Wisconsin,
Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Speaker 2 (07:31):
The race is just so tight there. It does look
like Kamena Harris has a slight advantage at the moment.
But we're talking about shifts of just a few thousand votes.
We're talking about who can get their vote out.
Speaker 3 (07:41):
You know, one of the things that Trump always thinks
is that there are people out there who don't ordinarily vote,
many of them young men, who they hope can get
to the polls, And anything that happens in the next
few weeks, anything that just shifts a few votes in
a few different places, could have the impact to actually
decide this race.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
Old October Surprise Wall's v vance. Have they made a
material difference or not?
Speaker 2 (08:05):
I thought it was a really interesting debate.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
I think we found out that Tim Walls perhaps isn't
the kind of huge bonus to the Democratic ticket that
we thought he was Initially. I was surprised how in
particular he was who sort of seen a bit gaff prone,
didn't he when he said he sort of befriended mass shooters,
that kind of weird thing.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
He wasn't sort of.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
He emerged as this sort of great communicated didn't he
the kind of America's dad, the high school football coach,
the Friday night lights thing. And of course, you know
JD Vance was sort of characterized as this kind of
oversized frat boy, you know, somebody who was really nasty
or the childless cat laders. I mean, he came out
just trying to show there's no more mister nasty guy,
didn't he? He had this nice guy persona.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
But that final.
Speaker 3 (08:46):
Question, I mean, I think for ninety minutes in the
debate he was totally on top. But it was that
final question about Jeremy the sixth, wasn't it, And that
final refusal to accept that button had actually won in
twenty twenty, that is the clip that has sort of
survived the debate and had the big after life after
the debate. So I think, you know, as I say,
anything that shifts the dial in this election. Normally vice
(09:08):
presidential debates don't matter at all, but I think that
one could because I think a lot of women, especially
are really not that keen on Jady Vance and often Mike.
It just comes down to wavering women. A lot of
them who live in these suburbs of the rost belt
states like Philadelphia, like Milwaukee.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
You know, a lot of them just don't like JD.
Speaker 3 (09:26):
Vance and that could be crucial, especially his answers on abortion,
which is another issue which is going to drive a
lot of vote for Kamla Harris.
Speaker 1 (09:33):
So, I take it from your comment to RIDERPEC yesterday suggested,
it's not unlikely, it's not impossible that you could get
a result on the night college vote of two seventy
to two sixty eight. It's that tight. Do you see that?
Speaker 3 (09:44):
Yeah? And this is really crucial because that would involve
a state that we don't often talk about, which is Nebraska.
Forty eight out of the fifty states might a lot.
They're electoral votes on the basis of win it takes all.
If you win just one vote more than your rival
in Pennsylvania, you get all of Pennsylvania's nineteen electoral college votes.
There are two states that don't do that, Nebraska and Maine. Now,
(10:06):
there is one congressional district in May in Nebraska Omaha.
The second congressional district which went Democrat in twenty and twenty,
and what the Republicans has been trying to do is
change the rule so that Nebraska becomes a winner.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
It takes all the state.
Speaker 3 (10:22):
It's a reliabie red state that would deliver all of
its electoral college votes to Donald Trump. But there was
an attempt last month to change the rules, and one
Republican decided that the rules should stay the same. And we
talk about the blue dot. This one electoral college vote
in Nebraska that is based on a congressional district. And
(10:44):
it looks like Kamala Harrison will win Omaha, which is
that congressional district, and that could tilt her from two
sixty nine to two seventy. Two seventy is a magic
number you need to win. So we look at these
seven states, but let's not forget Nebraska as well, because
if she won those three Roust Belt states, right Wisconsin, Michigan,
and Pennsylvania, that gets it to two sixty nine. The
(11:07):
thing that gets her over the top is that one
blue dot in Nebraska.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
Everything matters, Mike, in this final stage.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
Does not just And I asked you last time we interviewed.
I said, last question, call it and you wouldn't you
couldn't any change.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
No, not at all.
Speaker 3 (11:20):
I think anybody who tells you with any certainty who's
going to win in this stage isn't worth listening to.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
I you know, we could have more October surprises.
Speaker 3 (11:28):
Frankly, I think the October surprise in the twenty twenty
four election came in twenty twenty three with the Hammer
attack on Israel. I think the ramifications of that are
still working through. I think Benjamin Ett Yahoo could end
up having quite an impact on this election, depending what
happens in Iran. And it's not only the turmoil in
the Middle East politically, it's the impact economically. You know,
(11:50):
there's a spiking gas prices before the election. Again that
nostalgic feeling about the Trump economy comes into play again.
You know, there are so many things that could impact
this race between.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Now and then.
Speaker 3 (12:01):
As I said, I've been saying this all year, Mike,
it's just a few thousand votes in a few states,
but that'll decide the selection.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
Who can get out the vote. It's a squeaker, it's
gonna be a photo.
Speaker 1 (12:10):
Finish'm gonna have to get you on again talk so Mike,
appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
As always.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
Nick Brian out of Australia in the early Hours and
Australian Morning. His latest book as the Forever War. If
you haven't read that, well worth it. For more from
the mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks it'd
be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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