Rob Buchanan: Channel Infrastructure CEO on the new predictions of when NZ will hit peak petrol imports

There’s been a shift in when New Zealand will hit peak petrol imports. 

After initially predicting it will peak around next year, Channel Infrastructure says the early 2030s is now the more likely date. 

It comes as the company announced plans for an energy precinct at Marsden Point. 

Chief executive Rob Buchanan told Mike Hosking some of the reasons of this shift are reductions in vehicle kilometres travelled and the purchasing of new vehicles. 

He says they've also seen a dramatic reduction in EV registrations, now they compete with internal combustion engines. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
It turns out we haven't reached peak petrol channel infrastructure

(00:03):
formerly refine New Zealand. Of course, now forecasting twenty thirty
as opposed to next year is a likely peak point.
They're also looking at what they're calling an energy precinct
at Marsden Point. The Boss, Rob you Cannon back with us. Rob,
morning to.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
You, Good morning Mike.

Speaker 1 (00:15):
The peak forecasting, how much of that's just throw a
data to board versus science.

Speaker 2 (00:21):
Well, we're a long term infrastructure company, so one of
the things that we need to do is continually produce
long term outlocks for fuel use in New Zealand. So
to ground ourselves, we have about forty New Zealand's transport
fuels come through our terminal system, and about eighty percent
of New Zealand's jet fuel. The outlook that you're referring
to is a twenty five year outlook. So the one

(00:43):
thing we know is that in twenty five years it'll
be wrong. But it's about as good as we can
get in terms of making those assumptions and outlocks today.

Speaker 1 (00:52):
I take it is all to do. The reason it's
peak twenty thirty is because the economy slowed down. We
don't buy as much and we're not buying as many
evs because we're carried away and in reality didn't turn
out to be what we thought it would be.

Speaker 2 (01:04):
Yes, the color drivers there. So one is we've got
an expectation of continuing growth. Is we see that recovery
of local travel post COVID. But I think what you're
referring to there around EV's is right. So the government
removed the clean car discount. We also saw post COVID
a permanent reduction in vehicle vehicle columbers traveled, the video

(01:28):
conferencing and those types of things. But I think we've
also seen a pretty dramatic reduction in the registration of
evs now that they compete like for like with internal
combustion engines.

Speaker 1 (01:39):
Right, I read to report this week. You can help
me out because I didn't understand it. The biggest influx
of LNG suppliers coming this is globally. It will transform
the global market, bringing about wider implications and previous expansions.
Do you see that as being true as that happening.

Speaker 2 (01:56):
Well, New Zealand doesn't have an LG import terminal at
no point.

Speaker 1 (02:00):
Was excited a couple of months ago, though didn't we well.

Speaker 2 (02:03):
I think that was off the back of a pretty
challenging period. The electricity sector went through a shortage of gas,
therefore shortage of electricity, therefore very high electricity prices. So
there's certainly been some discussions about an ing import terminal.
I think the challenges is that very expensive to build,
own and operate, so we need to need to make
sure we look at all options and ser energy security.

Speaker 1 (02:25):
Good insight. Rob, have a good week and I appreciate
it very much.

Speaker 2 (02:28):
Rob.

Speaker 1 (02:28):
You can and channel infrastructure CEO. Yees. So they're going
to the expansion. This is LNG is likely to lead
to a state of over supply by the end of
twenty six, which will remain until twenty thirty, prices possibly
moving below double digits. Interesting thing about that is, of
course the government will wetting their pants with excitement over
the importation of LNG. You remember all of that, Then
suddenly crickets chirping, and yet next winter, next winter, they've

(02:49):
already said we're in trouble. So what's happening, Hey, what's happening?

Speaker 2 (02:54):
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