Mark Gilbert: Former US Ambassador to New Zealand on the Democrats chances in the US Election

Democrats are confident their ground-campaign will bring Kamala Harris the win.  

Experts say the result could go either way, with Trump and Harris still neck-and-neck in the key battleground states. 

Almost a third of eligible voters —82 million people— have cast an early ballot. 

Former US Ambassador to New Zealand Mark Gilbert told Mark Hosking the polls are within the margin of error in all key swing states. 

He says that the polls can be very misleading due to the electoral college system, and they’ve seen late breakers moving blue. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So every four years of the world doesn't stop certainly
at polls, is long enough to pay attention to the
most consequential election of them all, the presidency of the
United States of America. Much has been made with the polls,
of the quality of the candidates, of the closeness of
the race. As always, it will come down to the
swing states now. Mark Gilbert, former US Ambassador to New Zealand,
is back with us. Mark, very good morning to you.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
Good morning.

Speaker 1 (00:21):
Are you bullish or full of apprehension?

Speaker 2 (00:25):
I feel pretty good about where we are based on
what our ground game we've had Terrisia, Crown Gain, very sophisticated.
We're in all seven of the battleground states, and I
believe there's a good chance that we will win most,
if not all of them.

Speaker 1 (00:45):
Well, does that make it as close as the polls say?
Do you believe the polls?

Speaker 2 (00:52):
Because of our electoral college, the polls can be very macheving,
But poles have been within the margin of era in
the seven battle round stands for a month now, and
we've seen late breakers moving our direction. Us With the
ground game we have, we feel really good about getting

(01:14):
out the vote, getting out those leader undecided and we
feel really good about this. And when you talk about
the election, it's a margin of era race. So we
may only win some states by five or ten thousand votes.
But the way our election works is if you get

(01:37):
all the electoral dudes.

Speaker 1 (01:38):
That's coreat so.

Speaker 2 (01:42):
It can actually be an electoral college. Lander.

Speaker 1 (01:46):
Do you the early vote count overall is down on
twenty twenty? Does that part worry you or not? He's gone.
He's on a train. That's the American telephone system for you.
By the way, as far as the models are concerned,
jail Partners, we've seen a fairly dramatic, it might not

(02:08):
be too strong a word, but a definite move to
Harris as they run their various scenarios. So jail Partners
Trump wins in sixty percent of simulations. Just a couple
of days ago, that was sixty two. Let's go back.
I think we've got Mark back on the phone. Mark
apologies about the connection to the phone. Do you worry
about the early vote being out and not being of
the size of twenty twenty? He's clearly not there. Let's

(02:36):
give that one a miss. So the scenario is that
jal Partners are running sixty percent so the lowest number
for a month. He's dropped eight points. Trump has dropped
eight points in the past week. So from overall, it's
gone lean Trump to toss up Trump. The swing state probabilities,
they've all changed. Notable impacts in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Arizona.

(02:58):
Trump's win probabilities increase by six and a half points.
He's gone from likely to strong, and Michigan Harris's win
probabilities increased twelve point eight points, So it's now a
Leen Harris Wisconsin sixteen point movement against Trump. So toss
up Trump to lean Harris. So we're in the We're
into the weird and wonderful because you got any number

(03:20):
of people from Nate Silba to Henry Olsen who was
on the program yesterday saying they believe Trump can win
some people to suggesting Rasmus and are suggesting Trump not
only wins, but he wins by quite a long way,
and yet jail partners and all their modeling goes completely
the other way. For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast,
listen live to news talks it'd be from six am weekdays,

(03:40):
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.