November 5, 2024 • 8 mins
We're just hours away from the first polls closing in the US election, but we could be days or weeks away from a final result.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck-and-neck in key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Arizona.
First polling places close at midday our time, the last due to close at 7pm.
Marco Rubio's Former Chief of Staff Matt Terrill told Mike Hosking that whether Trump wins or loses, the results of the election will be something they have to unpack as a nation.
He says that if the Democrats lose the election, it may mean they’ll be forced to rebrand, as they lost some of their core base to Trump during the campaign.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
We're back to the vote in the States. How tight
will it be? What do you make of the polls
and the prediction so far? Will it be clear tonight?
Mical Rubia's former chief of staff managing partner at fire
House Strategies, Matt Terrell's beck with us, Matt, very good
morning to you.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Great to be with you.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
There ain't nothing like it you fizzing.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
It's a big day, no question, it's an exciting day.
Election day is here.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
As a campaign or as as campaigns? How they compared
to others in your view?
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Well, you know, I'll tell you this is just my
assessment when I'm hearing from people across the country that
I know, I think you are more doubt into this
race and previous elections I can remember, I think Americans
recognized it's a big election, and so I think people
are dowed in. There's a lot of low propensity voters
who haven't voted before or choosing to vote in this election.
We'll see what that means on election night for these
(00:49):
candidates tonight, but certainly Americans are painful attention to this race.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
Somebody suggested yesterday, I thought it was interesting that the Republicans,
given the state of the economy. First of all, does
it all come down to the economy at the end
of the economy, the economy, economy, Do you think that's it?
Speaker 2 (01:05):
Whereas many issues that olver's care about. But I think
you're hitting the nail on the head. You know, look,
the economy, inflation, border security as well. If you look
at all the point in this race by and large
has shown that those are the top issues that voters
care about. If you're the Trump campaign, you're feeling good
about that. I suspect yeah, simply given that President Trump
has been pulling quite well on those issues. With respect
(01:27):
to the economy, inflation, border security, there's a big issues
in this race. I think that if this race is
about those issues, that's the bare path board for President
Trump tonight.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
Exactly So, the theory being that when so many Americans
think the economy is not going in the right direction,
or the country is not going in the right direction,
it's a shoeing for the Republicans. The reason that isn't
a shoeing for the Republicans is because Trump's a shocking candidate.
Is that fair or not?
Speaker 2 (01:52):
Well, no, tonight, you know the results of this election
will certainly be something that walk unpack here as a nation,
whether President Trump or loses. Here's what I can tell you.
I think that President Trump has more of unified GP
base behind him than he had in twenty sixteen or
twenty twenty. And I also think the Trump campaign feels
good about I suspect the fact that they've been potentially
(02:13):
making n roads with key voting blocks. It will be
critical in this race that we're traditional Democratic voting blocks.
You know, Democrats typically voted you know, and really made
inroads with Union voters, Black voters, Hispanic voters, young voters.
If you're looking at the polls right now, President Trump
is doing quite well for Republican nominee among Union voters,
black voters, Hispanic voters, and young voters. So look, if
(02:36):
you're a Trump campaign, I think you feel a lot
of optimism tonight. They've been making some going instant tonight,
They've been making some inroads into those voting blocks. We'll
see what that means this evening, of course, But I
think for the Trump campaign, you're also feeling good about
early voting. Early voting right now has been truning for Republicans.
You know, Republics been turning out and higher numbers in
this election for early voting in comparison to twenty sixteen
(02:57):
and twenty twenty. But today truly matters. This is a
turnout down. It's election day. Republicans tend to turn out
an election day that's going to matter as well.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
Do you believe the polls.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
I'm suspicious, particularly given where polls have been and pass
election cycles. I think it's likely a close race, but
there's a good chance that the polls can also be wrong.
You know. I think there's a good chance that many
voters to be Trump supports could be undersampled. And I
only say that because President Trump in previous elections tends
to underperform in the polls and overperform on election day.
(03:27):
I think you saw that in a critical state like
Pennsylvania four years ago. President Bien had a fairly significant
lead in that state in the polls went into election night,
but the heels of the election, he basically won Pennsylvania
by roughly a percentage point. So, you know, look, I
tell people at Tome to adore the polls. I think
the candid should anore the polls and focus today on
voter turnout. You're the Trump campaign I'd say ignore the
(03:49):
polls focused today on turn out every single voter.
Speaker 1 (03:51):
You get what about the money, the money markets, the
money's heading towards Trump. Do you believe the money.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Yeah, So we've seen the betting, Marcus really in favor
of believing that President Trump will win this race. I
think there's a lot of indicators that you would traditionally
look at that show that President Trump farewell could have
a good night tonight, whether it's just the traditional pulling
out there to your point, the betting markets again, that
early vote number, I think is a strong sign for Republicans.
Beny would argue you, and then I just think you
(04:18):
look at the issues and you look at where you
know voters view the country right now. Over seventy percent
of Americans right now get the country's going in the
wrong direction. That's not a good number. If your Vice president, Harris.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
What do the dams do if they lose? I mean,
how do I mean just with the whites in the
inference of that question, you lose to Trump, how do
you come back from that?
Speaker 2 (04:44):
Well, certainly I think if the Democrats lose a night,
you're gonna have the rebrand. And what I mean by
that is you know, to take two thousand and four,
for example, John Carrey's a Democratic nominee, he loses to
President Bush. I think some of that sentiment debt then,
given how close that race was, and you know, many
voters weren't happy with President Bush. Now elections, some like
present Bush in that election obviously won that election, so
more did din it. But to your question, I think
(05:06):
it comes down to, you know, just like the Republicans
had to do in twenty twelve, if you have to
rebrand or do almost an autopsy report and think through, Okay,
what is the party going to do going forward to
connect with voters. If you're the Democrat party right now
and it is true that they are losing support among
Union voters and black voters, and young voters and Hispanic voters,
if that's true, that that's a big, big concern. I
(05:28):
think if you're a Democrat out there, not just for
this election but for future elections to count. We'll see
if that's true, and we'll know more tonight.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
A couple of scenarios if Trump wins, can they flip
the Senate?
Speaker 2 (05:40):
You know, I think right now the Senate is trending.
I think many would argue, if you look at the polling,
if you believe the polls trending in Republicans favor, I
think there's key races to watch here, such as Montana
and other states that are going to matter. I think
what's interesting to note is that a lot of these
Democrat candidates in places like you know, Pennsylvania, Michigan, they've
been in TV ads with and Trump in them. So
(06:01):
the question is, are these candidates seeing something in are
internal polling that leads in the belief that President Trump
has a lot of momentum in this race. I think
it's a big question mark tradition, these candidates put the
presidential candidates and the Senate candidates and other candidates on ballot.
There are internal pollings gonna be a lot more accurate
than what you and I are seeing in the public.
So I think the question is if you're seeing these
ads that they're putting Trump in, if you're a Democratic candidate,
(06:22):
is at a sign they're seeing something in the water
that Trump has momentum. Here's what I think. I think
whoever wins the presidency tonight, likely the House the Senate
will go with them. President Trump wins, that's gonna be
the case.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
That was my Nix scenario, because the Nick scenario could
be what if Harris wins, but they flipped the sceenate
Republican and she's stuck.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
You know, there's there's a chance that could happen with Harris.
I will I will say that just given how the
map is, I think it's more and more likely that
would happen with Harris. Where you have a divided government
here at divide to Congress, excuse me, a divide a
government with respect to the Congress and the presidency and
the Harris win. But look, I think at the end
of the day, it's going to come down to you know,
voters are likely going to go into the voting booth,
(07:01):
and I think most of them are probably going to
vote straight party ticket. You maybe you have a few
voters who cross over. But I think if you're voting Trump,
you're voting down down ballot, and I think if your
voting Harris, you're voting down ballot. That's like what happened
in most cases. I think you're seeing less and less
crossover appeal of what comes to voters going into the
voting booth. But we'll see. I could be completely wrong
on that. Of course, we can have a different scenario
play out. But I think the best pat of your
(07:23):
trumpet particular or any of these two candidates, you want
to have Congress with you. You can't just do it alone.
It'll be helpful to have full field advantage and includes
control of the set in the House.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
I'm getting really carried away here. But Trump's if he wins,
he is done. It's one term for two terms. Does
ruby a run and does Rubya? Does he set up
the Republican Party for another crack and might be twelve vs.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
Well, that's a question for Senator Rubio. They have to
ask him directly. There's a lot about the people. There's
a lot of to doubt the people in the party. CENTA.
Ruby is certainly one of them, you know, and you're
seeing other obviously out to the people in the party as well.
I think certainly the quest the big question mark will
be what does you know Senator J. D. Vance do
if it is vice president of Vance On the heels
(08:07):
of of this evening's results, I think the big question
will be will be around those contenders as well. Potentially
they choose to run. But look, we got we got
to get through this election. You know, a week is
a lifetime and politics, how we say, we got a
lot of weeks to go between now and the next
presidential election. We've a few hours left in this election,
so you know, we're gonna have to get through this
one first. And by the way, hopefully we know tonight.
(08:28):
Maybe we do, maybe we don't, But I think the
country just wants to get through this first election, firs.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
If that makes sense, that's the truth, or I might
always a pleasure to have you on the progate at matarial.
Who is Mica Rubis woman chief of stuff and so
so this is cool. For more from the Mic Hosking
Breakfast listen live to news talks. It'd be from six
am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
We're back to the vote in the States. How tight
will it be? What do you make of the polls
and the prediction so far? Will it be clear tonight?
Mical Rubia's former chief of staff managing partner at fire
House Strategies, Matt Terrell's beck with us, Matt, very good
morning to you.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Great to be with you.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
There ain't nothing like it you fizzing.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
It's a big day, no question, it's an exciting day.
Election day is here.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
As a campaign or as as campaigns? How they compared
to others in your view?
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Well, you know, I'll tell you this is just my
assessment when I'm hearing from people across the country that
I know, I think you are more doubt into this
race and previous elections I can remember, I think Americans
recognized it's a big election, and so I think people
are dowed in. There's a lot of low propensity voters
who haven't voted before or choosing to vote in this election.
We'll see what that means on election night for these
(00:49):
candidates tonight, but certainly Americans are painful attention to this race.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
Somebody suggested yesterday, I thought it was interesting that the Republicans,
given the state of the economy. First of all, does
it all come down to the economy at the end
of the economy, the economy, economy, Do you think that's it?
Speaker 2 (01:05):
Whereas many issues that olver's care about. But I think
you're hitting the nail on the head. You know, look,
the economy, inflation, border security as well. If you look
at all the point in this race by and large
has shown that those are the top issues that voters
care about. If you're the Trump campaign, you're feeling good
about that. I suspect yeah, simply given that President Trump
has been pulling quite well on those issues. With respect
(01:27):
to the economy, inflation, border security, there's a big issues
in this race. I think that if this race is
about those issues, that's the bare path board for President
Trump tonight.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
Exactly So, the theory being that when so many Americans
think the economy is not going in the right direction,
or the country is not going in the right direction,
it's a shoeing for the Republicans. The reason that isn't
a shoeing for the Republicans is because Trump's a shocking candidate.
Is that fair or not?
Speaker 2 (01:52):
Well, no, tonight, you know the results of this election
will certainly be something that walk unpack here as a nation,
whether President Trump or loses. Here's what I can tell you.
I think that President Trump has more of unified GP
base behind him than he had in twenty sixteen or
twenty twenty. And I also think the Trump campaign feels
good about I suspect the fact that they've been potentially
(02:13):
making n roads with key voting blocks. It will be
critical in this race that we're traditional Democratic voting blocks.
You know, Democrats typically voted you know, and really made
inroads with Union voters, Black voters, Hispanic voters, young voters.
If you're looking at the polls right now, President Trump
is doing quite well for Republican nominee among Union voters,
black voters, Hispanic voters, and young voters. So look, if
(02:36):
you're a Trump campaign, I think you feel a lot
of optimism tonight. They've been making some going instant tonight,
They've been making some inroads into those voting blocks. We'll
see what that means this evening, of course, But I
think for the Trump campaign, you're also feeling good about
early voting. Early voting right now has been truning for Republicans.
You know, Republics been turning out and higher numbers in
this election for early voting in comparison to twenty sixteen
(02:57):
and twenty twenty. But today truly matters. This is a
turnout down. It's election day. Republicans tend to turn out
an election day that's going to matter as well.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
Do you believe the polls.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
I'm suspicious, particularly given where polls have been and pass
election cycles. I think it's likely a close race, but
there's a good chance that the polls can also be wrong.
You know. I think there's a good chance that many
voters to be Trump supports could be undersampled. And I
only say that because President Trump in previous elections tends
to underperform in the polls and overperform on election day.
(03:27):
I think you saw that in a critical state like
Pennsylvania four years ago. President Bien had a fairly significant
lead in that state in the polls went into election night,
but the heels of the election, he basically won Pennsylvania
by roughly a percentage point. So, you know, look, I
tell people at Tome to adore the polls. I think
the candid should anore the polls and focus today on
voter turnout. You're the Trump campaign I'd say ignore the
(03:49):
polls focused today on turn out every single voter.
Speaker 1 (03:51):
You get what about the money, the money markets, the
money's heading towards Trump. Do you believe the money.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Yeah, So we've seen the betting, Marcus really in favor
of believing that President Trump will win this race. I
think there's a lot of indicators that you would traditionally
look at that show that President Trump farewell could have
a good night tonight, whether it's just the traditional pulling
out there to your point, the betting markets again, that
early vote number, I think is a strong sign for Republicans.
Beny would argue you, and then I just think you
(04:18):
look at the issues and you look at where you
know voters view the country right now. Over seventy percent
of Americans right now get the country's going in the
wrong direction. That's not a good number. If your Vice president, Harris.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
What do the dams do if they lose? I mean,
how do I mean just with the whites in the
inference of that question, you lose to Trump, how do
you come back from that?
Speaker 2 (04:44):
Well, certainly I think if the Democrats lose a night,
you're gonna have the rebrand. And what I mean by
that is you know, to take two thousand and four,
for example, John Carrey's a Democratic nominee, he loses to
President Bush. I think some of that sentiment debt then,
given how close that race was, and you know, many
voters weren't happy with President Bush. Now elections, some like
present Bush in that election obviously won that election, so
more did din it. But to your question, I think
(05:06):
it comes down to, you know, just like the Republicans
had to do in twenty twelve, if you have to
rebrand or do almost an autopsy report and think through, Okay,
what is the party going to do going forward to
connect with voters. If you're the Democrat party right now
and it is true that they are losing support among
Union voters and black voters, and young voters and Hispanic voters,
if that's true, that that's a big, big concern. I
(05:28):
think if you're a Democrat out there, not just for
this election but for future elections to count. We'll see
if that's true, and we'll know more tonight.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
A couple of scenarios if Trump wins, can they flip
the Senate?
Speaker 2 (05:40):
You know, I think right now the Senate is trending.
I think many would argue, if you look at the polling,
if you believe the polls trending in Republicans favor, I
think there's key races to watch here, such as Montana
and other states that are going to matter. I think
what's interesting to note is that a lot of these
Democrat candidates in places like you know, Pennsylvania, Michigan, they've
been in TV ads with and Trump in them. So
(06:01):
the question is, are these candidates seeing something in are
internal polling that leads in the belief that President Trump
has a lot of momentum in this race. I think
it's a big question mark tradition, these candidates put the
presidential candidates and the Senate candidates and other candidates on ballot.
There are internal pollings gonna be a lot more accurate
than what you and I are seeing in the public.
So I think the question is if you're seeing these
ads that they're putting Trump in, if you're a Democratic candidate,
(06:22):
is at a sign they're seeing something in the water
that Trump has momentum. Here's what I think. I think
whoever wins the presidency tonight, likely the House the Senate
will go with them. President Trump wins, that's gonna be
the case.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
That was my Nix scenario, because the Nick scenario could
be what if Harris wins, but they flipped the sceenate
Republican and she's stuck.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
You know, there's there's a chance that could happen with Harris.
I will I will say that just given how the
map is, I think it's more and more likely that
would happen with Harris. Where you have a divided government
here at divide to Congress, excuse me, a divide a
government with respect to the Congress and the presidency and
the Harris win. But look, I think at the end
of the day, it's going to come down to you know,
voters are likely going to go into the voting booth,
(07:01):
and I think most of them are probably going to
vote straight party ticket. You maybe you have a few
voters who cross over. But I think if you're voting Trump,
you're voting down down ballot, and I think if your
voting Harris, you're voting down ballot. That's like what happened
in most cases. I think you're seeing less and less
crossover appeal of what comes to voters going into the
voting booth. But we'll see. I could be completely wrong
on that. Of course, we can have a different scenario
play out. But I think the best pat of your
(07:23):
trumpet particular or any of these two candidates, you want
to have Congress with you. You can't just do it alone.
It'll be helpful to have full field advantage and includes
control of the set in the House.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
I'm getting really carried away here. But Trump's if he wins,
he is done. It's one term for two terms. Does
ruby a run and does Rubya? Does he set up
the Republican Party for another crack and might be twelve vs.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
Well, that's a question for Senator Rubio. They have to
ask him directly. There's a lot about the people. There's
a lot of to doubt the people in the party. CENTA.
Ruby is certainly one of them, you know, and you're
seeing other obviously out to the people in the party as well.
I think certainly the quest the big question mark will
be what does you know Senator J. D. Vance do
if it is vice president of Vance On the heels
(08:07):
of of this evening's results, I think the big question
will be will be around those contenders as well. Potentially
they choose to run. But look, we got we got
to get through this election. You know, a week is
a lifetime and politics, how we say, we got a
lot of weeks to go between now and the next
presidential election. We've a few hours left in this election,
so you know, we're gonna have to get through this
one first. And by the way, hopefully we know tonight.
(08:28):
Maybe we do, maybe we don't, But I think the
country just wants to get through this first election, firs.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
If that makes sense, that's the truth, or I might
always a pleasure to have you on the progate at matarial.
Who is Mica Rubis woman chief of stuff and so
so this is cool. For more from the Mic Hosking
Breakfast listen live to news talks. It'd be from six
am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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