Full Show Podcast: 06 November 2024

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Setting the news agenda and digging into the issues. The
Mic Hosking Breakfast with Alveda, Retirement, Communities, Life, Your Way, News,
togs Head, Been Molli and.

Speaker 2 (00:10):
Welcome today the vote. Former US Ambassador Mark Gilberts is
well us along with Marc Rubio's former wingman. We got
job numbers here today. Sheila Laxon knows how to train
a winnershes in post celebrations in Melbourne s Morning, Mark
and Jinny do politics after rape this morning, Richard Arnold's
Deep Price. They do the magic for us as well.
Pasky go seven past six, three oh four to two

(00:31):
twenty seven. That was a final score in twenty sixteen.
The only reason I mentioned that is because I stood
at the Javits Center in downtown Manhattan until well into
the early hours of the morning after election day and
Hillary had refused to come out to concede. If that
happens when it's not even close tonight might be an
even bigger mess. A landslide either way would be helpful
for various reasons, because if it's not, social media will

(00:52):
explode and lawyers will make lifetimes worth of income in
the avalanche of legal proceedings that will ensue. In many respects,
the way America votes is a reflection on the state
of the race we have seen. It is a pitiful
mess for such a large, influential, and wealthy country. The
Democrats have the most to lose because they are the incumbents,
and generally the incumbents get a second crack, while they
did when times were more normal than they are at

(01:14):
the moment. Trump dismissed after one shambolic term, Harris lined
up to try and prevent two one termers in a
row as a plan. Someone should be held accountable for that.
I mean, think about it. Harris is there because she's
a woman in one of color. That was the Biden thinking.
The thinking on Biden was he was the only one
they had that had a chance to stop Trump, and
he did. But once he did that, then what no

(01:37):
one seemed to know. Did they really think he could
pull that trick off for a second time in twenty
twenty four And if he couldn't, was Harris really the
rock star they needed to carry the torch? In many respects,
the fact that this is close is a disgrace. Trump,
having been ousted once, should not even be in the race.
The fact he is is a sign of just what
a force of nature he is, and what a pitiful
collection of no hope as the Democrats are. If Trump wins,

(02:00):
be as amazed or furious or worried as you like,
but it will be one of the greatest victories in
modern democracy anywhere He has been unrelenting. If Harris wins,
it's a sigh of release, a scramble across the line.
They should be bolting home. They have the Senate and
the presidency, and they're up against a crook. How do
you make a tight race? And yet here we are

(02:22):
and how long we are here arguing depends on just
how close it is tonight or tomorrow.

Speaker 3 (02:29):
What news of the world in ninety seconds.

Speaker 2 (02:32):
One wrapped it up in Philly.

Speaker 4 (02:34):
Ours has not been a fight against something. It has
been a fight for something, a fight for a future
with freedom, with opportunity, and with dignity for all Americans.

Speaker 5 (02:49):
The other in Michigan, this isn't my campaign, this is
your campaign. This is a great campaign. That's now it's
nine years and we've been fighting side by side every
step of the way.

Speaker 6 (03:01):
We've been together.

Speaker 2 (03:02):
Now it's up to the people. If we get the
price of fuel and oil down.

Speaker 3 (03:05):
That's really going to start to help.

Speaker 7 (03:06):
We'd like to have a commander in chief that our
highlies respect and a commander in chief that our enemies
respect and fear.

Speaker 8 (03:13):
The cost of goods has really gone through the roofs.

Speaker 9 (03:16):
We need to close that border, and we need to
close it right away.

Speaker 2 (03:19):
It is as always about swing states, and one of
which is Pennsylvania year of course, and once you're in
a swing state, you need to look to the counties,
like Bucks County.

Speaker 10 (03:26):
Polls opened in Pennsylvania at seven am, and there were
long lines here in Ben Salem and Bucks County, two
hundred people in line before the door's opening. Meanwhile, there's
a lot of attention when the result will be It
took four days in twenty twenty.

Speaker 2 (03:42):
Elsewhere, on Monday Night football, Jesson Kelsey, who had spent
sometime earlier in the week smashing of fans fund, said
thus about it.

Speaker 11 (03:48):
Not happy with anything that took place. I'm not proud
of it. I chose to greet hate with hate, and
I just don't think that that's a productive thing.

Speaker 2 (04:00):
Apologies from the Palace.

Speaker 12 (04:02):
We heard from the Palace today that she won't be
attending because she has got a chest infection. They are
hoping the palace is hoping that she is going to
be well enough to attend. Sort of the main events,
if you like it, the weekend.

Speaker 2 (04:14):
Indeed, the main event at the weekend are a remembrance events,
and we speak of Kevilla. Finally, Japanese researchers have built
and launched the world's first satellite into space made of wood.
It's called the Lignosatum, named after the Latin word for wood.
It'll be released into orbit near the International Space Station.
Crucial step in NASA's fifty year planned to plant trees
and build timber houses on the Moon. I didn't know

(04:36):
about that. I didn't know that NASA wanted to build
houses on the Moon. What sort of houses, leaky homes?
What sort of homes are they building.

Speaker 8 (04:41):
On the moon.

Speaker 3 (04:41):
It doesn't matter.

Speaker 2 (04:42):
It's no rain, so that a very good point. And
that is the point, because there is no water and
there is no oxygen. Glen the wood's good to go,
so good to go. They think that if this works,
they're going straight to Elon and go, hey, look have
we got a wooden house for a year. Here's the world.
The ninety seconds. By the way, following the machinists, they've
voted yes, not all of them. Actually is only fifty
nine percent, but that's enough. So they're going to go

(05:03):
back to work. Just the thirty eight percent increase. So
while they go back to work at Boeing, unfortunately everyone's
gone on striking Canada. All the ports are shut Vancouver, Rupert.
Rupert is huge. Approximately twenty percent of US trade goes
through Rupert. You're talking about eight hundred million dollars worth
of trade each and every day. Twelve past six.

Speaker 1 (05:27):
The Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
my News Talks.

Speaker 2 (05:32):
I'd be You're ready to party plus four point eight percent.
The farmers are in Clover fifteen past six day and
my wife Andrew calla have very good morning. Yeah, good
morning mate. You know that dairy auction. These are very
very good numbers, aren't they.

Speaker 13 (05:48):
They are they are so Global dairy trade auction overnight
four point eight percent left in the Global Dairy Trade Index. So,
now see, this is one of the things where we've
been looking for this actual activity to sort of meet
lofty ex dictation about what's going to happen.

Speaker 3 (06:01):
Well, here you go. This is real.

Speaker 13 (06:03):
This hour comes in twenty August twenty twenty four. Almost
all the components delivered positive results. So you sort of
you're supporting acts. Butter up eight point three good for
the cell, It's not so good for the buyers. Down
the line, there was a butter up eight point three percent,
chedder up four percent, whole moork powdered skim milk powder,
the major players really shining through. Skim milk powder at
four percent, whole moork powder up at four point four percent.

(06:24):
I can hear a quiet wee cheer echoing around the
milking sheds this morning. Mic they can they can get
the chocky biscuits out for morning tea and go lux,
go bougie for.

Speaker 2 (06:33):
More than place. And so if it's good for them,
it's good for us across the taxman unchanged. We called that,
that's no surprise. But what do they say?

Speaker 8 (06:40):
Yeah?

Speaker 13 (06:40):
So this is the RBA left the cash RD at
four point three five. Remember we're at four point seventy five.
We might move to four and a quarter later this month.
Key points underline inflation is too high, even though headline
inflation has fallen sharply. So you've got two point eight
percent on their on headline inflation. Remember they look at
a different measure, so on loan inflation three and a
half percent. The decline, in the RBA's own words, is

(07:01):
only gradual. I'll just highlight a couple of things. So
what did they say demanded the economy exceeds supply. Labor
market is tight across the Tasman Flip those around. So
we've in New Zealand we've got supplies said in demand.
We've got the labor market loosening. So we're on different
different paths of the monetary policy journey. They did make
small downgows to forecast growth of interest, they failed to

(07:21):
forecast the big lifting government spending. Again, you got this
divergence up between New Zealand and Australia and New Zealand.
The government's pursuing a policy well can we call it
austerity or not, whereas they're spending up large over there,
So not really a major market reaction like all fairly
expected on Poor old Michelle Bullet was competing with the
Melbourne Cup, really, wasn't she?

Speaker 2 (07:43):
And I can tell you something of another thing. I'm
not a racing fan. The Melbourne cup was more exciting
our cards spending here though, Jesus tell you what, Look
at the tourism number. Yeah it's a fact.

Speaker 13 (07:51):
Look another, this is another look at actual activity. Despite
you know, the recent lifts and consumer and business conference,
still not translating into a lift financial spend. So the
here are now diverging from more optimistic expectations. This is
Ain's it's own data, their card and merchant sort of
ecosystem down one point two percent year on year in October.
The alien said that, don't say it's stable.

Speaker 2 (08:12):
It's not getting any worse.

Speaker 13 (08:13):
Interest rates, sense of spending still experienced the largest fours
so housing spend related spending, durables, discretionary spending, yet tourism.
You want it to be the white night riding in
to give the country a bit of a boost, but
that category is seven points a seven point two percent
lower year on year, So you know, there does seem
to be a bottoming out in these in the start stuff,

(08:34):
which is good.

Speaker 2 (08:34):
We just got to wait for the lift, okay. And
then we come to the household living cost, but which
is not the inflation rate, but it's what you and
I feel, and that's not a good number. Either is it.

Speaker 13 (08:44):
No, it's coming in quite a bit higher than underlying inflation.

Speaker 2 (08:47):
And I've just lost the number here to just three
point eight.

Speaker 14 (08:50):
Three point eight that was what it was.

Speaker 13 (08:52):
Yeah, so it's still running a bit high. The thing
is they include the cost of interest on your mortgage
in that one, as opposed to the CPI, which has
the cost of building ours. I would have thought both
of them are pushing pretty high. But if you feel
like you're paying more inflation, then the CPI tells you.
The fact is you are because it's running.

Speaker 2 (09:08):
It's running high, all right, And we've got jobs numbers two.
I was going to say, look forward to but that's
not true either, right, Oh, what are the numbers?

Speaker 15 (09:15):
So well?

Speaker 13 (09:15):
As we as the polling booths are opening, the Americans
are still actually cheering the result. On the US share markets,
the dal jones currently up three hundred and seventy six
points forty two THO one hundred and seventy point nine percent,
game the S and P five hundred and five seven
sixty nine it's up one percent, and the NASTAC up
a one point four to five percent eighteen THOY four
hundred and forty three Overnight, the forty one hundred lost

(09:38):
seven points eight one seven six. The nick A gained
one point one percent last night three eight four seven four.
The Shanghai concert had A had a cracker actually up
two point three percent three three eight six. The Aussies
lost thirty three points on the A six two hundred
yesday eight one three one. That was point four of
a percent. In his next fifty twelve thousand, six hundred

(09:59):
and fifty eight, we gain just over half percent. Yesterday,
Kiwi dollar a little bit stronger point five nine nine
seven against the US point nine oh four to three
Ossie point five four ninety four euro point four to
six one Oho pounds ninety one point two one against
the Japanese yen gold twenty seven hundred and thirty seven dollars. Unfortunately,
Brent crud has tipped up a bit seventy six dollars
and thirty cents. And let's look forward to the next

(10:21):
twenty four hours.

Speaker 2 (10:22):
Might it should be exciting? Can catch up tomorrow Andrew
Callaham Jomo Weels dot co, dot m ZE China the
Parliament's meeting. There's more debt going, more local debt going.
This is all part of their strategy to pump well debt.
I was going to say money, but debt to help
them out. And Nintendo's got problems. Switch is too old,
they've reported overnight. The demand is falling, so they need
to do something about that. But everyone's into Ferrari. Ferrari

(10:43):
profits up seven percent, core innings up seven percent. This
is for the third quarter. When you buy a Ferrari,
you personalize at that costs of fortune shares have risen
by more than forty percent this year six twenty. You're
a news talk z read weird.

Speaker 1 (11:00):
Of Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talks.

Speaker 2 (11:05):
At b We'll follow the money in just a couple
of moments. The money market says regards the vote today,
but the voting trend so far, early voting turnout is
down from twenty twenty four years ago one hundred and
ten million head voter. That's about seventy percent of everyone
who did in the end. This year it's fifty percent,
so it's down significantly. Republicans have grown their pre election
vote share. Democrats have cast thirty seven percent of the

(11:27):
pre election votes registered Republicans thirty five, so thirty seven
thirty five. That's a significant tightening on twenty twenty when
it was forty two to thirty. So they've got the
Republicans out slightly earlier. Genda still an issue. Seven of
the most competitive states gender gap looks similar to twenty
twenty and twenty twenty two. Are roughly one point eight
million more women than men have voted early in the Arizona's, George's, Michigan, Nevada,

(11:50):
North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. What that means, who would know?

Speaker 1 (11:54):
Six twenty four trending now with chemist Wells keeping Kiwi's healthy.

Speaker 2 (11:59):
All year, It's impossible. I mean, is it possible to
forget just how long this whole process has been going.
I mean, it's all very exciting election day, but I
mean we've been doing this now for well, as it
turns out, years. First polls he had closed today at midday.
But to get to today, you've got to go back
to November of twenty two.

Speaker 5 (12:16):
In order to make America great and glorious again, I
am tonight announcing my candidacy for President of the United States.

Speaker 2 (12:24):
This is not a time to be complacent. That's why
I'm running for re.

Speaker 13 (12:27):
Elections Donald Trump will officially become the first former president
in the history of these United States to face a
criminal triumph.

Speaker 8 (12:37):
He says, you're not going to be a dictator, are you?

Speaker 3 (12:39):
I said, no, no, No other than.

Speaker 16 (12:41):
Day one, what I've been able to do with the
with the COVID I was could be with dealing with
everything we have to do with.

Speaker 2 (12:51):
Look, if we finally beat medicare.

Speaker 9 (12:56):
We are F't that reaction from a democratic source.

Speaker 17 (13:01):
It's up to the president to suicide if he is
going to run.

Speaker 18 (13:04):
If you want to really see something that said, take
a look at what happened.

Speaker 9 (13:14):
For the first time in over half a century, a
sitting president who can still run for re election will
not appear on the ballot.

Speaker 2 (13:20):
Kamala Paris.

Speaker 4 (13:24):
Do we believe in the promise of America? The next
vice president of the United States.

Speaker 2 (13:30):
Jim Wall you know it, you feel it.

Speaker 3 (13:33):
These guys are creepy, and yes, just where it does Hell.

Speaker 9 (13:36):
It is therefore my honor to nominate Ohio Senator jd Vance.

Speaker 3 (13:42):
The childish cat lady.

Speaker 9 (13:43):
Would you like to comment on that?

Speaker 3 (13:45):
Obviously it was a sarcastic comment. I've got nothing against
cats in Springfield. They're eating the dogs.

Speaker 5 (13:51):
The people that came in.

Speaker 9 (13:53):
From campaign says shots were fired in the vicinity of
the former president.

Speaker 5 (13:58):
Arnold Palmer was all mad.

Speaker 2 (14:00):
He took showers with the other pros.

Speaker 5 (14:02):
They came out of there.

Speaker 18 (14:03):
They said, Oh my god, I'm looking for a job
and I've always wanted to work at McDonald's.

Speaker 5 (14:09):
How do you like my garbage truck? This cook is
an honor of Kamala and Joe Baden.

Speaker 3 (14:14):
Are we ready to vote?

Speaker 15 (14:18):
Are we ready to win?

Speaker 5 (14:21):
With your vote tomorrow, we can fix every single problem
our country faces.

Speaker 2 (14:27):
You can't buy this stuff. I wouldn't get excited till
two pm. Personally, I mean I'll be e I mean,
I'm excited now, for God's sake. But two pm is Michigan, Pennsylvania,
and three pm is Arizona, Wisconsin. And then it's the counting.
It's not when the polls close, the poles closing doesn't
really matter. It's how quickly they're going to count them
and what percentage of the vote, And if it's closed,

(14:49):
it'll go on and on and on so in many respects,
As I said earlier on this morning, you want something
clean and clear, right of the way. But the other thing.
We'll get into Richard Arnold shortly. By the way. The
other thing important, of course, they've got they've got the
House of rips up and they've got a third of
the Senate as well, so those are big key raisers.
More and that shortly meantime the News is next, your News,

(15:10):
talks ed B, You're.

Speaker 1 (15:11):
Trusted home the News Entertainment's opinion and Mike Mike Hosking
breakfast with the range rover.

Speaker 3 (15:18):
The law designed to intrigue and use talks dead B.

Speaker 2 (15:22):
One of the things I like about America is two
things I like about America. One happens today and that
is in comparison to New Zealand. That is that when
you vote, you can speak, and you're a candidate, you
go vote, everybody watches you, and you've actually got something
to say.

Speaker 18 (15:33):
This election should be over. They spend all this money
on machines, and frankly, if they'd use paper ballots, who
would be over by ten o'clock. And by the way,
the paper ballots would cost eight percent. It would be
eight percent of the cost. If they would use paper ballots,
voter ID proof of citizenship and one day voting, it

(15:53):
would all be over.

Speaker 3 (15:54):
By ten o'clock in the evening.

Speaker 18 (15:56):
It's crazy. They use these very expensive computers, and I'm
hearing in Pennsylvania they won't to have an answer till
two or three days from now.

Speaker 2 (16:06):
That's not true. Paper ballots are cumbersome and slow, as
was demonstrated as I watched yesterday in Arizona. As they
open up the envelope and they pull out two pieces
of paper, they have to check that both pieces of
paper are the appropriate pieces of paper, because one of
the pieces of papers for the president the other one isn't.
And if there are two paper ones versus two paper twos,

(16:26):
they've got to do something about that. They then, if
both pieces of paper are correct, they then pass it
on to the tabulators.

Speaker 1 (16:32):
So and that's assuming that they haven't been set on fire, of.

Speaker 2 (16:35):
Course, exactly so he's full of it. Anyway, He said
this was his last political campaign. Somebody says this is
the last political campaign. I thought he'd already said that
he won't be running again. He said, I would think so.
He thought the election had been fair so far. If
I lose an election, if it's a fair election, it'll
be the first to acknowledge that. But then again, what's
a fair election for goodness sake, Then we come to
the business of freebies, and they got momentarily excited because

(16:58):
it's legal. The other thing I like about America, by
the way, is not just that you can speak on
election day. This ridiculous law rule that we have in
this country whereby all the early voters go out in
the midst of a debate in a campaign and then
suddenly on Saturday you can't talk to anybody. It's so stupid.
And the other thing they do in America, I like

(17:18):
I said many many times before, if you're a juror
in a court case, you're allowed to speak. We should
do both things similarly. Here anyway, it's legal to reward
people for voting or paying people to register for vote,
which brings, of course Elon Musk into the equation. But
they're offering ride share deals today. Uber and Lyft will
take you to the polling booth for half price, which

(17:40):
is nice twenty one away from seven r D shortly
but back here, governmently by the Prime Minister from the
show yesterday dug themselves a little bit of a whole
oblite documents around the military style academies. The government's running
to straighten out these young criminals. Now the papers showed
that the Academy should be able to use force. The
Prime Minister city didn't know, wasn't briefed, despite the fact

(18:02):
that had gone before cabinet. Apparently now the minister in
charge of all of this is Karen Shaw, and she
as well as Karen, very good morning.

Speaker 14 (18:07):
To you, morning mate.

Speaker 2 (18:09):
Yesterday the Herald were claiming you weren't wanting to answer
questions on that one. Is that true and why weren't
you willing to answer questions?

Speaker 14 (18:17):
It tends to be very cautious about speaking to a
document that I know nothing about. I haven't seen and
don't know what it is.

Speaker 2 (18:24):
Okay, is that still the case or do you get
hold of the document yesterday?

Speaker 19 (18:29):
There are certain things also that I follow as well,
and that would be cabinet procedure, and I'm just very
cautious about speaking about decisions that still have things to
be considered.

Speaker 2 (18:41):
Have you still not spoken to the Prime Minister about.

Speaker 14 (18:46):
I haven't actually sat down and had an individual conversation
with the premis and no, I haven't.

Speaker 2 (18:51):
Without giving anything away as to what's going on in cabinet.
Has it gone before cabinet.

Speaker 14 (18:57):
The decisions that have gone before cabinet are the ones
that are already public and the ones that I spoke
about in question time yesterday, where we have made the
decisions around whether force can be used in other situations
rather than just in the detention residence.

Speaker 20 (19:15):
Can force be used, Yes, force can be used, but
only under very strict conditions and we have regulations to
protect that.

Speaker 2 (19:27):
Why when force can be used? Did the Prime Minister
not know that?

Speaker 14 (19:33):
I'm sure the premise that would know that when you're
in detention that you can be restrained in special circumstances.

Speaker 2 (19:42):
He didn't know that, he said he didn't know.

Speaker 14 (19:46):
Well, I wouldn't able to comment to that.

Speaker 2 (19:48):
Sorry, How does cabinet work? Once again without giving it away,
when something comes before cabinet, this is a very important
part of the cabinet process. When it comes before, is
it actually discussed openly? And if you're in the room,
are you cold ignoscant of what is being agreed to
and discussed?

Speaker 14 (20:04):
Yeah? So that would that would be their expectation that everybody,
if there are any questions, you can ask questions for
any paper or for anything that you're putting forward. But
also that goes out for concerts also reconsult with each other.

Speaker 2 (20:24):
Right, So, having had it before cabinet and having discussed
it in any questions to be asked, were asked, how
come the Prime Minister doesn't know what's going on?

Speaker 14 (20:33):
I was I can't actually speak to the process of
anything particular. I'm just talking to the process in general,
so that that comment I made was not what happened
in particular to anything, all right. To make sure that
you understand that.

Speaker 2 (20:51):
If that's fine, If I had asked you yesterday as
to whether the government had agreed that force will be
used in these military camps, would you have able to
answer that question or not.

Speaker 14 (21:03):
This is my portfolio and my paper, so I yes,
I would have been able to answer.

Speaker 2 (21:08):
That to you, and as of yesterday you would have
been able to say, yes, you will be using force.

Speaker 14 (21:14):
I would be saying we would use restraints if a
child that was going to abscond or was going to
hurt themselves with somebody else. That already currently happens with
certain facilities.

Speaker 8 (21:28):
Right.

Speaker 2 (21:29):
So to get to and there's two parts to this,
I guess one is whether you think that that's acceptable
or not in people like the Greens and the Marray
Party don't. But I suspect that most New Zealanders would
be on your side in that sense. But it's a
very sensitive subject, a subject that you'll be apologizing for
next Tuesday on different matters. Why wasn't the government cognizant
and sensitive enough to understand that that is the situation

(21:53):
and therefore be upfront and fully knowledgeable about what they
are about to do.

Speaker 14 (21:59):
This is not making changes to the fact that this
can already currently happen, and all I am all the
changes I made were to make it that is, the
outside of a setting of the secure residents, like on

(22:19):
a field trip or out on an overnight camping trip,
that we have the ability to keep them safe and
keep our staff safe. So yes, there is a report
into the abusing care and safe based places. But the
fact of the matter is if we are going to

(22:41):
give these kids a shot, if we are going to
give these young people a chance, we have to have
the ability to actually put a little bit of trust
in them and be able to do things outside of
the residence. But we also have to keep usselfs safe
while doing that.

Speaker 2 (22:56):
I appreciate time very much. Karen saw the Children's Ministers
sixteen to two.

Speaker 1 (23:01):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News.

Speaker 2 (23:06):
Talks AP Morney Mike, any idea why butter is nearly
ten dollars a block and still going up in price? Bob,
you should have been reading the deary auction result this morning.
Bad news for you as good news for the country.
Thirteen to two.

Speaker 21 (23:18):
International correspondence with Ensit Eye Insurance Peace of Mind for
New Zealand Business.

Speaker 2 (23:24):
Richard Donald, morning to you, Good morning, Mike, and here
we are.

Speaker 7 (23:30):
Yes both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Campaigning down to
the wire. Trump was at a rally at two am
this morning, Thank you. And Harris made three stops in
most Win, Pennsylvania, including a star started events at Philadelphia's
Rocky Steps, the place where Slice to learn, his fictional
movie character in the Rocky Film, decided he would challenge
his boxing rival, said Harris.

Speaker 4 (23:52):
Here at these famous steps a tribute to those who
start as the underdogs and climb to victory.

Speaker 7 (24:01):
So that is Harris's hope. While Trump has declared today will.

Speaker 22 (24:08):
Be the most important day in the history of our country.

Speaker 7 (24:12):
So as Americans go to the polls, some eighty million
already had voted early, about half the expected Talley. That's
a huge, huge number. One Republican man in Texas who
says he just voted for Harris says he did so
because of January the sixth, and because of women's reproductive rights.

Speaker 13 (24:27):
I've got four strong daughters and they probably would just
shoot me if I did not vote for their rights.

Speaker 7 (24:37):
Well, in a way, this election is in part the
battle of the sex is because of the gender gap
that we've been seeing. The Harris team says they are
ending their campaign in a mood of quote nauseous optimism.
Comedian Jimmy Kimmel says, it feels like the whole country
is waiting to get the results of a biopsyne Yeah,
strange is showing. Trump has been campaigning for this for
two years. Seemed to lose it a bit over his

(24:59):
recent microphone problems at one of his events, where he
had to actually hold the mic my hand.

Speaker 22 (25:05):
I've never held a microphone up so long in my
damn life. It's like I'm waiting lifting suckers heavy. I'm
working my ass off with his stupid mic. I'm blown
out my left arm now. I'm gonna blow out my
right arm, and I'm blowing out my damn throat too,
because he's stupid.

Speaker 7 (25:24):
People blowing out his arm. Everyone needs a break, I guess.
And speaking short time ago, Trump sounded a bit more wrested.
Social walk of the former football star and olympian was
called on to introduce the Donald at that event. Didn't
quite get there.

Speaker 22 (25:37):
We did to the poll, and we vote for my
friend and your friend, Donald Trump Junior, Donald Trump, Donald Trump.

Speaker 7 (25:45):
One of those Trump's not junior anyway. Before the President
suggests we the one time sports figure who has struggled
with the mental issues should have a top national security role.

Speaker 22 (25:54):
We will build a missile defense shield, all made in
the USA, wrapped around our country to defend ourselves in
our country. It's all going to be.

Speaker 5 (26:05):
Made in the United States, so a lot of it
in your great state.

Speaker 6 (26:09):
Will put herschel walker in judge of that little soccer.

Speaker 7 (26:12):
That soccer. Trump also suggests that r Kay Junior should
run health in a second Trump line up. I'm going
to let him go wild on health.

Speaker 14 (26:19):
I'm going to let him go wild on the food.

Speaker 7 (26:21):
I'm going to let him go wild on medicine. Yeah,
that's well, here's how RFK, the famed conspiracy theorist and
what bear cub collector put his view of this.

Speaker 23 (26:32):
The key that I think you know the President Trump
has promised me is is control of the public health agencies,
which are HHS in IT sub agencies, CDC, FDA and
i H and a few others, and then also the USDA.

Speaker 7 (26:49):
So elon for cutting government agencies, RFK for going wild
on medicines and herschel He's suffered a number of football
injuries for missile defenses. Trump used his final realley to
also go after a former speaker, Nancy Pelosi. Horrible, he
says of Pelosi. Well, he uses, well, we can't use

(27:12):
on the radio.

Speaker 8 (27:12):
He's an evil, sick crazy. It starts with a B.

Speaker 2 (27:16):
But I won't say it.

Speaker 14 (27:19):
I want to say it.

Speaker 7 (27:21):
As for the vote, little Dixville, not to always first account,
there six votes right after midnight split them three votes
for Harris, three for Trump, so right in line with
the polls. The twenty twenty vote, you recall, took five
days account This could be a lengthy process as well,
although we will get a crucial early indicator Pennsylvania pivotal
as we've been saying their poles close at two pm

(27:42):
your time. They already had in some one point seven
million early votes, so could be counting all night.

Speaker 2 (27:47):
All right, might go well, unless, of course, there's many
correspondents are texting and emailing me this morning. It's too
big to rig. Eight minutes away from seven.

Speaker 3 (27:57):
Breakfast with Dailey's real estate news talks, there'd be by the.

Speaker 2 (28:01):
Way out of Britain overnight. Major back down from the
Labour government, the new Labor government, they are not going
to ban smoking in the gardens of pubs and restaurants.
Great deal of angst over that. The Health secretary we're
streeting didn't want to cause any further harm to hospit
wonder why so he's learned his lesson, which is good.
Five away from seven.

Speaker 3 (28:19):
Well, the ins and the outs.

Speaker 1 (28:21):
It's the fizz with business tiber take your business productivity to.

Speaker 7 (28:25):
The next level.

Speaker 2 (28:26):
Economists looking over the policies in the US not that
there have been that many specific policies have in course.
In short, the fiscal deficit is likely to increase more
under Trump, while Harris's policies are more likely to lead
to a recession, is their conclusion. So the current US
deficit three point zero six trillion, an increase of two
hundred and thirty billion in the last year. That's the
third largest deficit in US history, behind the pandemic years

(28:48):
of twenty twenty and twenty twenty one. Trump's policies could
deepen the deficit by almost thirteen billion. Harris policies would
deepen it by six point six billion. Harris would recoup
a lot of that by increasing the corporate ten rate
if it works, because she's looking from twenty one to
twenty eight percent, which is the largest increase in the
developed world in fifty years. So that's how left she is.

(29:09):
It has been seen as the damage in tax would
almos certainly lead to a recession for obvious reasons. Largest
cost from Trump's plan would be extending and modifying the
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, exempting overtime from taxes, ending
tax on a social security benefit. Also wants to strengthen
the military and deport unauthorized immigrants. Of course, he would
upset all of that by taris. He says, we'll earn

(29:29):
four and a half billion dollars. Now here's the problem.
That's what they say, but not what they do. Because
the House is up for grabs general consensus, it won't change.
Republicans run the House. The Senate, a third of which
is up for grabs a number of open races. There
is a not unreasonable chance the Republicans can flip the Senate.

(29:51):
If Trump wins, and they've got the Senate and the House,
he can do anything if he wants if they win
the Senate. But Harris, She's lame duck. So none of
what I've just said matters anyway.

Speaker 1 (30:01):
More shortly, the newsmakers and the personalities, the big names,
talk to Mike my costing, Breakfast with Bailey's real Estate,
your local experts, across residential, commercial, and rural news talks.

Speaker 2 (30:16):
He had been only seven past seven, So every four
years of the world doesn't stop, certainly at pauses long
enough to pay attention to the most consequential election of
them all, the presidency of the United States of America.
Much has been made with the polls, of the quality
of the candidates, of the closeness of the race. As always,
it will come down to the swing states. Now. Mark Gilbert,
former US Ambassador to New Zealander, is back with US. Mark,
very good morning to you. Good morning Are you bullish

(30:39):
or full of apprehension?

Speaker 6 (30:42):
I feel pretty good of it where we are based
on what our ground game we've had Terrisia Crown Gain,
very sophisticated. We're in all seven of the battleground states,
and I believe it's a good chair that we will
win most, if not all of them.

Speaker 2 (31:02):
Do you well, does that make it as close as
the poll site? Do you believe the polls?

Speaker 6 (31:10):
Because of our electoral college, the polls can be very machhading,
but the poles have been within the margin of era
in the seven battle round stands for a month now
and we've seen late breakers moving our direction. Us with
the ground game we have, we feel really good about

(31:31):
getting out the votes, getting out those leader undecided, and
we feel really good about this. And when you talk
about the election, it's a margin of era race. So
we may only win some states by five or ten
thousand votes. But the way our election works is if

(31:52):
you get all the electoral dudes's coreat so it can
actually be in electoral college land.

Speaker 2 (32:03):
Do you the early vote count overall is down on
twenty twenty, Does that part worry you or not? He's gone,
He's on a train that's the American telephone system for you.
By the way, as far as the models are concerned,
Jail Partners, we've seen a fairly dramatic, it might not

(32:25):
be too strong a word, but a definite move to
Harris as they run their various scenarios. So Jail Partners,
Trump wins in sixty percent of simulations. Just a couple
of days ago, that was sixty two. Let's go back.
I think we've got Mark back on the phone. Mark
apologies about the connection to the phone. Do you worry
about the early vote being out and not being of
the size of twenty twenty. He's clearly not there. Let's

(32:53):
give that one a miss. So the scenarios that jay
Ol Partners are running sixty percent, so the lowest number
for a month dropped date points. Trump has dropped eight
points in the past week. So from overall, it's gone
lean Trump to toss up Trump. The swing state probabilities,
they've all changed, notable impacts In Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Arizona.

(33:15):
Trump's win probabilities increase by six and a half points.
He's gone from likely to strong, and Michigan Harris's win
probabilities increased twelve point eight points, So it's now a
lean Harris Wisconsin sixteen point movement against Trump. So toss
up Trump to lean Harris. So we're in the We're

(33:35):
into the weird and wonderful because you got any number
of people from Nate Silba to Henry Olsen who was
on the programme yesterday, saying they believe Trump can win.
Some people are suggesting Rasmus and are suggesting Trump not
only wins, but he wins by quite a long way.
And yet jail partners and all their modeling goes completely
the other way. Marca Ruby is man. By the way,
Matt Terrell's going to be back as long as we
can get a decent phone out of America for you.

(33:55):
After seven thirty ten minutes past seven pasking they come
Jobs dart A up today, most mister picking between four
point nine to five point one increase in Principal economist
Christina Jung is back. Well, it's Christina, good morning to you.
What a four point nine to five or five point one?
What's your care?

Speaker 24 (34:13):
We're expecting the unemployment rate to pick up to just
over five percent in the September quarter. So if we
look at other labor market indicators, they do point to
a further weakening in hiring. For example, our own inded
al quarterly Serve our Business Opinion shows that while firms
are starting to feel a bit more optimistic about general
economic conditions, certainly when it comes to hiring, there's still
quite a bit of caution out there. Over a third

(34:35):
of firms reduce heat count in the September quarter, and
then around nine percent are indicating that they plan to
reduce staff numbers in the next quarter.

Speaker 2 (34:43):
What's your pick for a peak and when?

Speaker 24 (34:47):
So, we do expect that the unemployment rate will peak
at just under six percent towards the end of next year.
It bears to remember that our labor market does to
lag broader economic activity, and that reflects the fact that
firms when it comes to once they see that slowing
in economic activity. Generally you do initially see some a

(35:10):
bit of labor hoarding going on, particularly when we look
at the has just how acute labor shortages have been
over the COVID nineteen pandemic period. Firms are reluctant to
have to go through that again. So it's not until
there's actually quite a sustained slowing which is what we've
seen that firms do start to shed workers and hence

(35:31):
you get that slowing, broader slowing in.

Speaker 14 (35:33):
The labor market.

Speaker 2 (35:34):
Are we seeing variability in the jobs you know, geographically
and industry wise or sect the wise.

Speaker 24 (35:41):
Yeah, So if we look at the slowing in terms
of the shedding of workers the labor market, where that
weakening is it is fairly broad based. Healthcare is one
area where there's been where it's been pretty resilient in
terms of jobs demanded for jobs. But when it comes
so for example, professional services and construction, there's been weakening

(36:04):
in those areas and that reflects the impact the negative
impact of higher interest rates on demand. Now, higher interest
rates over the past year has reduced demand in a
lot of areas. For example, when it comes to construction,
it's made the feasibility of a lot of development projects
no longer feasible because of that high cost to borrow.
And generally, when you think about investment, it's the cost

(36:26):
of borrowing versus the return on investments. So the fact
that with high interest rates it made it harder to
get a lot of those development projects off the ground.
We've seen that comes through in weakness and construction demand,
and then when it comes to prefer professional services, that
reflects that broader US weakening in demand. In the news
and economy.

Speaker 2 (36:44):
Good stuff, Christina Precier very much, Christina lung insi Ier,
Principal Economist, thirteen past seven. We are but and Andrew
previewed this yesterday on the program. They came out with
their resilience tests. They've been testing the economy, testing the banks,
having a look at what's going on. They've come to
the conclusion that mortgage defaults will still go higher because
of the unemployment. Now I'll give you more detail on

(37:05):
that because I think they're wrong. Fourteen past seven.

Speaker 1 (37:09):
The Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talks.

Speaker 2 (37:14):
At B What to Day for Sheerla Lax and a
The Melbourne Cup of four eight o'clock Mike, the banks
are trying their hardest not to foreclose. They're letting people
balloon their mortgages, effectively printing money. More trouble ahead, Kevin,
that's wrong. They're not ballooning. There's no balloon. When when
you delay paying back your mortgage, you're not printing money.
Let me come back to that. Seventeen past seven now
seem to have the final call on Wellington's tunnel drama. Second,
what we got here. We got a second mount Vic

(37:36):
and we've got a Terrace tunnel. So we've got a
couple of tunnels next top the investment case which will
be longer than a tunnel that'll be presented to the
NZTA by mid next year. Business Central CEO Simon Arkiss
with a Simon morning, good boy, Mike, how very well. Indeed,
thank you. A couple of tunnels that suit you absolutely.

Speaker 25 (37:54):
It's just good to have a decision made. And part
of me looks at it and thinks, I know it's
a big job. It's one point two k worth of
with a road to build, and let's get on with it.

Speaker 2 (38:03):
Yeah, can we get on with it? Are we capable
of getting on with it?

Speaker 25 (38:07):
I think we're capable if we leave it with the
Minister and ZTA. I think the City Council's prove and
it's got other things to focus on at the moment,
So yep, we'll get it done. We've got to get
it done.

Speaker 8 (38:17):
Man.

Speaker 2 (38:18):
How future proofed are these two options or these two tunnels?

Speaker 25 (38:22):
Look, I think one of the things that solves a
lot of problems of today with congestion, but the reality
is that we're going to need those tunnels in time,
and of course you build for the future. Well, you know,
the other interesting thing about it for me is that
it helps people even from the hut because if you
think about that now wrong through to the airport ten
minutes after, it's just the whole flow of the city improved.

Speaker 2 (38:43):
Yeah, they see yesterday one of the models, and who
believes models, but one of the model suggested that if
they didn't do it, that no wrong, a link to
the airport would increase traffic or increase time by fifty percent.
Would you broadly agree with that?

Speaker 3 (38:55):
I would broadly agree with it.

Speaker 25 (38:56):
And I'll tell you the other interesting thing is that
development that's going on Latle Bay room to be going
on to checks. So I mean, if that goes ahead,
you get in the hotels, you get a retail, that
whole part of the city might be much much more
busy than it is right now and years to come,
and this development, particularly the roads would be excellent for.

Speaker 2 (39:14):
That good stuff. Simon, go well with it, and we'll
talk again when it's built, which will be over many,
many many years. Simon arcus. I mean, am I wrong
or am I wrong? Nineteen minutes past seven to the
RV just on the stress testing, in the so called
ballooning of I mean, here's what I've blooned out, and
here's what we've all learned, because you can't argue with it,
because it's statement of fact. One of the things that
didn't happen was the mortgage cliff. Go back a couple

(39:36):
of years post COVID. The money was in the economy,
inflation was flying. It was all a disaster. Three recessions,
blah blah blah. People were going to bleed, people were
not going to be able to pay their mortgages. The
housing market was going to collapse. None of it happened.
If you look at the latest numbers, name operating from
memory here, but it's zero point four percent of mortgages
are in some sort of trouble. And that doesn't even
mean therefore closing. It just means they're a bit behind

(39:56):
zero point four percent. So, in other words, the disaster
forecast was not going to happen. Now, technically, if you
lose your job and you don't have enough money coming
and will you potentially be in some sort of trouble,
and therefore the Reserve Bank and going, oh, we're going
to have trouble with the mortgages. Yes, is it going
to be widespread? I don't think so, because at five
percent read your history, five percent unemployment. Even if it
goes to five and a half percent unemployment, it's not

(40:19):
the end of the world. And historically it's not that high.
And we've not historically seen huge foreclosures on housing. People
will bleed to pay their mortgage, and that's what we've seen,
and that's what the facts say. And I just don't
know that the Reserve Bank have read the thing right.
Mind you, when they've dealt with the economy the way
they've dealt with that's not surprising. So I think they've

(40:41):
probably again got that wrong. It's not as bad as
they make it out to be. Seven twenty.

Speaker 1 (40:48):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio Power
By News talks.

Speaker 2 (40:54):
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(41:57):
See if you forget the politics for just a A
trait of Trump I actually admire is his unrelenting persistence
and unwavering belief in a contest no one can confidently
call based on fact, as opposed to feels or gut
or hope. I think I can very confidently say if
Biden had stayed in it wouldn't even be close age
for age. Just the sight of Trump's stampeding across the

(42:19):
landscape in the way he does would have left Biden gasping.
Trump out campaigned Clinton ten years ago, he might well
do the same thing in twenty twenty four. Biden was
the antidote, and it worked. But they never thought past that.
And this will be a soul searching exercise as to
why not later tonight if things don't go well for Harris.
The sad bit about Trump for me is he isn't
actually very good. He doesn't represent high office well, which

(42:40):
doesn't mean he can't win obviously, or indeed win twice.
There's a combination of luck and genius in his recipe.
I think he got lucky he faced Clinton, a Washington
insider with a pile of shabby baggage. He got lucky
he faced Biden, who was so bad they ejected him
for another insider. Not so much with baggage this time.
Just nothing your average American can get their head around.

(43:01):
What I can't work out is whether it's luck or
genius he's been able to become impervious to scandal. Forget
the fringe nutters and what they say. The simple truth
is he is a convicted felon. He is a grubby,
loud mouth with no sophistication, just a wannabe desperation for
high office and power. Not that he wasn't a half
decent president.

Speaker 23 (43:21):
Too.

Speaker 2 (43:21):
Many of the liberals who hate him forget all of that.
The world didn't end between twenty sixteen and twenty twenty.
He's a conservative. On economics, the economy was fine, if
not healthy. He's an isolationist, which suits a lot of Americans.
Fine America first resonates. My international high point for his
success was NATO. He embarrassed a record number of countries
into paying their way. That is solid leadership. I dislike

(43:43):
tho as dishonesty. It wasn't the greatest economy as he claims.
He wasn't the greatest president. It wasn't the cleanest heir
and the purest water. Essentially, he's full of bullshit, but
a lot of the BS is show and the Liberals
won't see it. He doesn't want the media shot literally.
It's not literal. You can't take him literally. Why can't
they see that? That's why so many of them will

(44:05):
combust if he wins. They have no sense of humor
or at least of the absurd, which is what this
race has been. I mean, I ask you, this is
the biggest story today, Trump winning or the Democrats not
being able to win, Because if you want a gut
call from me, I think that's how it's going to
play out, asking blow me down. I thought after yesterday's dissertation,

(44:28):
which followed a dissertation a couple of weeks earlier on
nuclear power, I thought, I'm probably alone in this. It's
not a bad idea. I think I'm on the right
side of history globally speaking, but I'm not sure we're
ever going to get anywhere. And then I suddenly open
up the old paper and Jardin Wealth Weekly. Jardin Wealth
Weekly headline nuclear power is the taboo topic now the

(44:48):
solution by Tomega Research analyst at Jardam For decades, nuclear
power has been considered problematic, with New Zealand having one
of the most adverse populations. However, the global narrative is shifting,
and I thought, hello, Lujah, I'm not alone. I mean,
don't change your mind. If you want, be your posed
for the rest of your life. If you want, but

(45:09):
believe me, mark my words, mark this day. The world
is moving on. And if you want to run data centers,
and you want to host data centers, and you want
to power your homes and power business, nuclear is the
way of the future. The world has already decided. We
either jump on board or we don't.

Speaker 1 (45:28):
News is next, The Breakfast Show, You Can Trust, The
Mic Hosking Breakfast with a Vita, Retirement, Communities, Life Your Way, News, Togs.

Speaker 2 (45:38):
D Mark and Jinny Politics Wednesday, after late meantime of
twenty three minutes away from a You're back to the
boat in the States. How tight will it be? What
do you make of the polls and the prediction so far?
Will it be clear tonight? Marco Rubio's former chief of
staff managing partner at Firehouse Strategies, Matt Terrell's back with us. Matt,
very good morning to you, great to be with you.
There ain't nothing like it. You're fizzing.

Speaker 9 (46:00):
It's a big day, no question, it's an exciting day.
Election day is here.

Speaker 2 (46:05):
As a campaign or as campaigns how they can pay
to others in mule view.

Speaker 9 (46:12):
Well, you know, I'll tell you this is just my
assessment when I'm hearing from people across the country that
I know, I think you are more dowed into this
race and previous elections I can remember. I think Americans
recognized it's a big election, and so I think people
are dialed in. There's a lot of low propensity voters
who haven't voted before or choosing to vote in this election.
We'll see what that means on election night for these

(46:32):
candidates tonight. But certainly Americans are payingful attention to this race.

Speaker 2 (46:37):
Somebody suggested yesterday, I thought it was interesting that the Republicans,
given the state of the economy, first of all, does
it all come down to the economy, the end of
the economy, the economy, economy. Do you think that's it?

Speaker 9 (46:48):
Whereas many issues I've always cared about, but I think
you're hitting nail on the head, you know, Look, the economy, inflation,
border security as well if you look at all the
point in this race by and large has shown that
those are the top issues that voters care about. If
you're the Trump campaign, you're feeling good about that. I
suspect simply given that President Trump has been pulling quite
well on those issues. With respect to the economy, inflation,

(47:11):
border security, there's a big issues in this race. I
think that if this race is about those issues, that's
the bear path board for President Trump tonight.

Speaker 2 (47:19):
Exactly so, the theory being that when so many Americans
think the economy is not going in the right direction
or the country is not going in the right direction,
it's a shoeing for the Republicans. The reason that isn't
a showing for the Republicans is because Trump's a shocking candidate.
Is that fair or not?

Speaker 9 (47:35):
Well, well no, tonight, you know, the results of this
election will certainly be something that walk do unpack here
as a nation, whether President Trump wins or loses. Here's
what I can tell you. I think that President Trump
has more of unified GP base behind him that he
had in twenty sixteen or twenty twenty. And I also
think the Trump campaign feels good about I suspect the
fact that they've been potentially making n roads with key

(47:58):
voting blocks will be critical in this race that were
traditioning Democratic voting blocks. You know, Democrats typically voted you know,
and really made inroads with Union voters, Black voters, Hispanic voters,
young voters. If you're looking at the polls right now,
President Trump is doing quite well for Republican nominee among
Union voters, black voters, Hispanic voters, and young voters. So look,

(48:18):
if you're a Trump campaign, I think you feel a
lot of optimism tonight. They've been making some going instance
to night, they've been making some inroads into those voting blocks.
We'll see what that means this evening, of course. But
I think if you're the Trump campaign, you're also feeling
good about early voting. Early voting right now has been
trending for Republicans. You know, Republics been turning out and
higher numbers in this election for early voting in comparison

(48:39):
to twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. But today truly matters.
This is a turnout day. It's election day. Republicans tend
to turn out an election day that's going to matter
as well.

Speaker 2 (48:46):
Do you believe the polls.

Speaker 9 (48:50):
I'm suspicious, particularly given where polls have been in past
election cycles. I think it's likely a close race, but
there's a good chance that the polls can also be wrong.

Speaker 16 (48:58):
You know.

Speaker 9 (48:58):
I think there's a good chance that any voters to
be Trump supports could be undersampled. And I only say
that because President Trump in previous elections tends to underperform
in the polls and overperform on election day. I think
you saw that in a critical state like Pennsylvania four
years ago. President Bien had a fairly significant lead in
that state in the polls went into election night, but

(49:19):
the heels of the election, he basically won Pennsylvania by
roughly a percentage point. So, you know, look, I tell
people to ignore the polls. I think the candid shoul
ignore the polls and focus today on voter turnout. You're
the Trump campaign, I'd ignore the polls, focused today on
turning out every single voter.

Speaker 2 (49:34):
You get, What about the money, the money markets, The
money is heading towards Trump. Do you believe the money?

Speaker 9 (49:41):
Yeah, so we've seen the betting markets really in favor
of believing that President Trump will win this race. I
think there's a lot of indicators that you would traditionally
look at that show that President Trump farewell could have
a good night tonight, whether it's just the traditional pulling
out there to your point, the betting markets again, that
early vote number, I think is a strong sign for Republicans.
Any would argue, and then I just think you look

(50:01):
at the issues and you look at where you know,
voters view the country right now. Over seventy percent of
Americans right now get the country's going in the wrong direction.
That's not a good number. If your Vice president Harris.

Speaker 2 (50:13):
What do the dams do if they lose? I mean,
how do I mean just with the whites in the
inference of that question, you lose to Trump, how do
you come back from that?

Speaker 9 (50:26):
Well, certainly I think if the Democrats lose a night,
you're gonna have to rebrand. And what I mean by
that is, you know, to take two thousand and four,
for example, John Carrey's Democratic nominee, he loses to President Bush.
I think some of that sentiment debt then, given how
close that race was, and you know, many voters weren't
happy with President Bush that election. Some like President Bush
in that election obviously won that election, so more did didn't.

(50:47):
But to your question, I think it comes down to,
you know, just like the Republicans had to do in
twenty twelve, you have to rebrand or do almost an
autopsy report and think through, Okay, what is the partying
to do going forward to connect with voter If you're
the Democrat party right now and it is true that
they are losing support among union voters and black voters,
and young voters and Hispanic voters, if that's true, that

(51:08):
that's a big, big concern. I think if you're a
Democrat out there, not just for this election but for
future elections to come, We'll see if that's true, and
we'll know more tonight.

Speaker 2 (51:16):
A couple of scenarios. If Trump wins, can they flip
the Senate?

Speaker 9 (51:23):
You know? I think right now the Senate is trending.
I think many would argue if you look at the polling,
if you believe the polls trending in Republicans favor, I
think there's key races to watch here, such as Montana
and other states they're going to matter. I think what's
interesting to note is that a lot of these Democrat
candidates in places like you know, Pennsylvania, Michigan, they've made
in TV ads with President Trump in them. So the

(51:44):
question is, are these candidates seeing something that are internal
polling that leads in the belief that President Trump has
a lot of momentum in this race. I think it's
a big question mark tradition. These candidates, both the presidential
candidates and the Senate candidates and other candidates on ballot,
there are internal pollings gonna be a lot more accurate
than what you and I are seeing in public. So
I think the question is, if you're seeing these ads
that they're putting Trump in, if you're a Democratic candidate,

(52:05):
is at a sign they're seeing something in the water
that Trump has momentum. Here's what I think. I think
whoever wins the presidency tonight, likely the House of the
Senate will go with them. President Trump wins, that's gonna
be the case.

Speaker 2 (52:16):
That was my Nix scenario, because the Nick scenario could
be what if Harris wins, but they flipped the Sceneate
Republican and she's stuck.

Speaker 23 (52:24):
You.

Speaker 9 (52:24):
No, there's there's a chance that that could happen with Harris.
I will I will say that just given how the
map is, I think it's more and more likely that
that would happen with Harris, where you have a divided
government here at divide to Congress, excuse me, a divide
a government with respect to the Congress and the presidency
and the Harris win. But look, I think the end
of the day, it's going to come down to you know,
voters are likely going to go into the voting booth,

(52:44):
and I think most of them are probably going to
vote straight party ticket to maybe have a few voters
who cross over. But I think if you're voting Trump,
you're voting down down ballot, and I think if you're
voting Harris, you're voting down ballot. That's likely happened in
most cases. I think you're seeing less and less crossover
appeal of what comes the vote going to the voting booth.
But we'll see. I could be completely wrong on that.
Of course, we can have a different scenario play out.

(53:04):
But I think the best pat of your Trumpet particular
or any of these these two candidates, you want to
have Congress with you you can you can't just do
it alone. You get it'll be helpful to have full
field advantage and includes control of the set.

Speaker 16 (53:15):
In the House.

Speaker 2 (53:15):
I'm getting really carried away here. But Trump's if he wins,
he is done. It's one term for two terms. Does
Ruby a run and does Rubya? Does he set up
the Republican Party for another crack and might be twelve Ye's, well, that's.

Speaker 9 (53:29):
A question for Senator Rubio. They have to ask him directly.
There's there's a lot of count the people. It's a
lot of count the people in the party. Cena Ruby
is certainly one of them, uh, you know, and you're
seeing other obviously talented people in the party as well.
I think certainly the quote the big question mark will
be what does you know Senator J. D. Vance do
if if it is vice president of Vance On the

(53:50):
heels of the of this evening's results, I think the
big question will be will be around those contenders as well,
potentially if they choose to run. But look, we got
we got to get through this election. You know, a
week is a lifetime and politics, how we say, we
got a lot of weeks to go between now and
the next presidential election. We've have a few hours left
in this election, so you know, we've got to get
through this one first. And by the way, hopefully we

(54:10):
know tonight maybe we do. Maybe we don't, but I
think the country just wants to get tough this first
election fors if that makes sense.

Speaker 2 (54:16):
That's the truth, or I might always a pleasure to
have you on the program. Mat Terrell, who is Mirka
Rubis former chief of staff and so so this is
called more throughout the day. Of course, you're in news
Talks seven forty.

Speaker 1 (54:27):
Five, the vic Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio
powered by News Talks.

Speaker 2 (54:34):
It'd be promte Mike. Why do all these US commentators
always called Trump president Trump when he's not the president.
Once you become president, you're president forever. In terms of recognition,
they were still referred to a presidents president Carter and
so on. It's it's part of the part of the job,
as they say. Right the Senate in particular, thirty four
seats are up for grabs, all four hundred and thirty five,

(54:54):
by the way, and in the House are up for grabs.
The general consensus, the Republicans have a very good charts
flipping the Senate. That's why I keep asking you about it,
because it's not just the presidency. You go back to
Obama twenty ten, so he wins in Iwai he's got
it all, he's got the trifector that he's got the Congry,
he's got it all. And then the mid terms come along,
he starts to lose one, and by twenty twelve, when
he gets his second term, he's lost both. So he's

(55:16):
a lame duck president. So it's one thing to win
the presidency. You don't want to be a lame duck president.
So if they flip the Senate and Harris wins, she's
got real trouble. Bit of Trump wins and they flip
the Senate, that's the trifector. So thirty four seats up
for the election in the Senate, including nineteen held by
the Dems, four held by the Democratic leaning Independence, eleven
held by the Republicans. Twenty six of those races include

(55:37):
incumbents who are trying to hold on to what they've got.
Eight are open seats, so currently it's forty nine to
forty seven, which makes it slightly weird because the Republicans
have more than Democrats. But it's the Independence that cause
the trouble in that particular part of the world. As
regards the House, two hundred and twenty of the four
hundred and thirty five Democrats have got two hundred and twelve.
Three seats are currently vacant. Forty nine seats are open election,

(55:59):
so that will be interesting to watch. So there's much, much,
much more to play for today than just the presidency itself,
and as I say, coverage throughout the day got to
get back to the Melbourne Cup in a moment though,
what a race. Tend to wait my.

Speaker 1 (56:12):
Cost breakfast with Veda retirement, communities news talks d be.

Speaker 2 (56:16):
Gone away from it, so not about the office for
Knight's Choice and its connections. Irish jockey Robbie Dolan brought
home a rank outside of the Melbourne capp as. I'm
sure you're well. We're co trained, of course by the
legendary Sheila Lexon, who's with us from Melbourne. Sheila, good morning,
Good morning, Mike.

Speaker 17 (56:29):
How are you?

Speaker 2 (56:30):
I'm sure? Jeez, you still sound happy? How happy did
you get? Did you get happier than you've ever been?

Speaker 7 (56:35):
Oh?

Speaker 17 (56:36):
Well, you know what was so special? My children came
out with their children and it was a great moment
to share with the family. So it was an extra
special Melbourne Cup win.

Speaker 2 (56:47):
I must say it is going into the day. Did
you give yourself any real chance or not?

Speaker 17 (56:55):
Well the funny too. On the way down, John said
to me, what do you think of his chances that?
When I hear Win and I said that, I did
say that a bit differently, I must admit, but you know,
I just he'd done exactly the same as the series
I've done. He's got the most electric sprint finish and
Robbie was so on song with him. You know, everything

(57:18):
worked together really well and so proved to be. But
I must have the odds. His odds were so big
because he'd been racing on wet tracks and he is
an absolute duffer on wet tracks. So he's deceived to
be hopeless in this campaign down in Victoria, but in
actual fact he's running at Bendigo was really good on
this first work, you know, dry track, and he probably

(57:41):
could have gone close in that race had he not
met some traffic problems up the street.

Speaker 2 (57:45):
What's it like as you one hundreds ago he's coming up,
There's two of them coming up through the middle and
they're moving and at that point you must know it's on.
Potentially it must be like no other feeling in the world.

Speaker 17 (58:00):
Ah, that's right, you know, I had a thim coming
up up the straight. I just so he's going to
win it, because that was exactly what the theorial did.
You know, he gathered a momentum and you know, I
was quite confident he was going to win. But it
was interesting watching the replay when that Japanese hours came
very close to heading him at the post.

Speaker 2 (58:19):
Yeah, did you think you're headed as they crossed the line,
because it was real close.

Speaker 17 (58:23):
Yes, I did, you know, and I was I spent.
I was watching the television screen at that point because
we're the owners and trainers stand it's it's by the clocktail,
so you can't really see the side on the post.
But you know, I looked up at the screen and
that was Yeah, he was quite clear one yeah, and a.

Speaker 2 (58:41):
Lot of the credit and I think rightly. So I
went to Robbie Dolan, who wrote it.

Speaker 17 (58:47):
Was one hundred and twenty one hundred ride. You know,
what he did was perfection, and he knew, you know,
he started going back, you know, going down the back
of the.

Speaker 19 (58:58):
Back straight for the first.

Speaker 7 (59:00):
Time, well of the only time.

Speaker 17 (59:01):
He started losing his position a little bit, but he
said they all started going quicker then, and he wants
to you know, he just decided to wait, which was
just intuition, you know, fantastic, fantastic.

Speaker 2 (59:14):
It was fantastic to watch too. Congratulations Sheila, I mean
two times, it's all history. First woman ever to do
it with Ethereal, the only woman ever to have done
it twice, I mean records. It's just and so far
from the outside it's ridiculous. So it was one of
those magical, magical days. Now Ginny is back from holiday
and Mark mitchellton a lot of issues to cover off

(59:35):
in politics Wednesday of course as well, and we'll go
to Australia. Back to Australia. Appreciate her getting up in
the early hours of the morning too, by the way,
especially after what I'm sure was a very big night
and Steve Price out of Australia for US after eight
thirty this morning. Meantime news is next to abuse talk said.

Speaker 1 (59:57):
They use bold opinions, the mic Hosking breakfast with the
range Rover, the designed to intrigue and use talks.

Speaker 26 (01:00:06):
He'd be there's a house on my block at Abandon
and Cole.

Speaker 3 (01:00:14):
The folks moved out, Wow time.

Speaker 26 (01:00:21):
And it took all the earth things and they never
keep back. It looks like kiss Harley wh the windows.

Speaker 2 (01:00:33):
I don't know whether he should have done this. No
one's a bigger fan than Willie Nelson, but he sounds
every day of his Mighty Warning. His new album, if
you can believe It, producing recorded by his son Micah,
trademark light vocals punctuated by just a hint of aged gris.

(01:00:59):
It's terressing that I Johnny Cash Dude American recordings with
Rick Rubin many years ago, when he was in a
similar medical slash age position, and it sounded he sounded
pretty raw, but I think it was better than this. Anyway,
make up your own mind. There were thirteen tracks. I mean,
I'll be doing it. I'll be listening it, I'll be
downloading it. I downloaded about seventy five new songs the

(01:01:22):
other day on onto my stick because I started off
with Wayne, you're still doing that? Yeah, I'm still doing that?

Speaker 3 (01:01:28):
How many cars as the stick outlasted?

Speaker 2 (01:01:31):
Same stick stick? Will You're worth me forever? Thirteen tracks,
forty nine minutes. Anyway, I discovered a woman called Gretchen
Peterson who I'd never heard of before. But if you've
never heard of her, look her up. She's quite good
politics Wednesday Now Mark Mitchell Weathers and it's Jenny Anderson.
Good morning to you.

Speaker 15 (01:01:48):
Good morning, Mike, Good morning, Mark morning, Mike morning, Jenny. Hey,
might you have to speak? Willie had ninety one still
the album, So I thank you.

Speaker 2 (01:01:56):
There's something to say. If you're out there doing what
you love, then then you know you ever worked today
in your life and I think there's probably something in that. Now, Ginny,
a couple of things for you. What did you do
on your holidays? Apart from getting yourself in the National headlights.

Speaker 16 (01:02:09):
I wasn't a holiday. I was on a course with Also.
I was a pleasure to go with Nancy loof National
and it was really nice to get to know her
a bit better. So her and I went on an
intensive course for about five and a half days.

Speaker 2 (01:02:21):
So not just of course, an intensive course. Where was
this course and what was it to do?

Speaker 16 (01:02:25):
Yeah, it was in Connecticut and it was kind of
professional development and leadership. It was a range of things.
But I really enjoyed it and it was nice to
know she's got your lovely person.

Speaker 2 (01:02:38):
Oh well, I'm sure she's a lovely person. Could we
ask some questions about the you know, whether what did
you What have you learnt out of it? But what's
the big takeaway out of your Well.

Speaker 16 (01:02:48):
You don't really get a lot of professional development in
this job, so it's a lot about how you cope
in difficult situations, how you connect with other people, and
how you make the most of the skills you have.
So yeah, it was good leadership.

Speaker 2 (01:03:02):
From our party and stuff like that, organizing coups and
stacking numbers.

Speaker 16 (01:03:05):
No, they didn't teach, but they'll tell you. What was
interesting though, is there were a bunch of guys from
Utah who who were quite high up in their organization
and it was fascinating getting to know other Americans high
up how they approached issue. So I probably learned a
bit more from other people in leadership positions as much
as I did.

Speaker 2 (01:03:25):
What about social media? Do they teach about social media?

Speaker 15 (01:03:28):
No?

Speaker 16 (01:03:28):
They didn't touch on that. No they did. It was
that part of the problem very much, potentially that I
could do a crash course on that. I think that
were fair.

Speaker 2 (01:03:36):
Now, Mark, yesterday I noticed I listened to I don't
know who she is, but there's a woman in the
press gallery who harangues the Prime Minister post cab every
Monday and the normally unusual questions, and the unusual question
from her this week was about the three year old
that was left by themselves for hours on end, and
Luxem didn't know anything about it, and I thought, this

(01:03:57):
strikes me as odd. And then you had to come
out and say that so it never happened. Where do
these stories come from? I don't know.

Speaker 15 (01:04:05):
Good question. There's Claudiot who's in the press gallery. And
that was the first we'd heard of it, and I
went back to police and said, can you please go
away and check this. Look. I already knew that it
was probably very hot, unlikely not to be accurate, and
the police came back and provided reassurances that no children
will left by themselves in the house. Look, the police

(01:04:25):
do a lot of pre planning around these warrants. They
will make sure extra care around kids and making sure
they are looked after him there is someone there for them.
And so when those allegations were brought forward, I was
pretty skeptical, but I went back to police and said, look,
can you go back and check on this because it's
important that we give an artswer on it.

Speaker 2 (01:04:44):
Okay, Jinny, how was it when I look at the
Maray Party these days, and that question was based on
behalf of the Marray Party. Why to Tea said that
that raid, we're talking about a poto key and the
mungrel mob. He said, that's terrorism and it's terrorism driven
by a racist agender. Now it's entirely possible in twenty
six and maybe in twenty nine that you guys are

(01:05:05):
going to have to coalesce with these guys. How do
you do that when that's the sort of people they.

Speaker 16 (01:05:09):
Are, Well, it's far too early to be discussing any
possibility of coalitions. And those are comments made by them
and they're beast responded to by them. If there are
any issues on the ground in terms of how those
operations were carried out, that's that's for the Independent Police
Conduct Authority. So the IPCA needs to look at those
and that's the correct process for that. But you know, Mike,

(01:05:31):
there are things that act in New Zealand first do
on a taly basis, not that revenue con Well, I
don't know. Introducing a treaty principle's bill without much notice
is pretty radical democracy. And I would say that democracy
would style style send me automatic weapons. That's Nicole McKee
wants to bring those back democracy.

Speaker 2 (01:05:51):
That's democracy's I mean what he's talking. All I'm talking
about is how do you sort of do a deal
with a single issue party that's increased singly, you know,
right out there on the edge.

Speaker 16 (01:06:04):
Well, it's far too early to be discussing that.

Speaker 2 (01:06:06):
I can't say that forever because I'm going to ask
you and haunt you with this question for the next
couple of years, and at some point it's going to
come to pass. Unless for some reason you become fantastically
popular and it's just you and the Greens, you will
need the Maori Party because they are here to stay
because why t T's locked his seat.

Speaker 16 (01:06:20):
So there those are always those are always issues that
are discussed in coalition agreements, and we're not in those discussions. Now.

Speaker 2 (01:06:28):
Imagine though, what would happen if they were Winston Peters
as in the balance of power. What do you reckon
their price would be to go into government with you guys?
I mean, you couldn't do it, could you.

Speaker 16 (01:06:39):
It's really difficult to foresee and try and predict exactly
how that would play out. You know, National has been
in government with Maori Party before, and.

Speaker 15 (01:06:50):
They were also a different Mary party. You had quality
people like tiro Off level and they achieved a lot,
they actually delivered. They actually delivered for Mary. But so
very different Mary Party back then. But all I'd say,
Mike is on the Podok issue is that I was
down there a few days ago. I met with locally
with you, I have got a very strong trusted relationship
with They're completely aligned with us. They don't want the

(01:07:12):
gangs here, they don't want their children in the gangs.
They recognize that's where the harm sits. I met with
Dave Moore and Mexic Tour the He's the he's the
mayor and one of the counselors. They are very happy
with the police have done for their community and it's
giving them some breathing space and it's allowing them to
have a reset.

Speaker 2 (01:07:29):
All right, break more of my Mark Mitchell, Jinny Anderson
Fourteen Past the.

Speaker 1 (01:07:33):
Mike Husking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio.

Speaker 2 (01:07:37):
It by newstalksb News Talks, seventeen Past Dight, Jenny Anderson,
Mark Mitchell, Weather's Mark. As far as did you see
the piece in the Herald the other day? Jinny raises
the gun control there's a piece in the Herald the
other day saying Nicole m Key wants to do one thing,
She's going to have to go through a mountain called
Mark Mitchell is there, But is the olngest building there?

Speaker 15 (01:08:02):
No, not at all, not all. I mean, I've got
a very good, strong working relationship with Nicole. We're both
motivated by the same thing, and that is around increasing
public safety. And it's as simple as that.

Speaker 2 (01:08:12):
Are you able to explain because the Labour Party you're
onto a couple of things. One of them is that
and the other thing's castello and the smoking. You would
argue that you are after the same thing, greater safety
in the community with guns, fewer people smoking in the
community with tobacco. So you're on the same page, you're
heading in the same direction. But they see labor chinks
in that armor. Why aren't you able to explain in

(01:08:34):
a clearer way so that people understand that there is
no scuttle but or scandal about any of this.

Speaker 15 (01:08:41):
Well, it's opposited politics, so they're going to raise it
and they's sort their job is and try and create
a bit of alarm around it. But all it say
is that, look, Casey, is my Associate Minister of Police.
She is outstanding and she is motivated on one thing,
and that is keeping the rate of smoking, reducing the
New Zealand infect accelerating it. And I think she's got
some you know, the she she can have more to

(01:09:01):
say on that. That's her portfolio area. But working with her, she's.

Speaker 2 (01:09:04):
Going to make some sort of announcements today while she
is she's got some details coming.

Speaker 15 (01:09:08):
No, not today, but I know this is very much
work going on in there and then that's up to you.
That's her portfolio and she can she can deal with that.
But no, she's outstanding and Nicole is the same. They're
outstanding New Zealanders that when you look at the history,
they've got a long trek record of public service and
being advocates and working hard to improve our country. And

(01:09:29):
that's what they're doing.

Speaker 2 (01:09:29):
The m Key one, Ginny, I get from your point
of view anyway, But the Costello one, I don't issues
like bending over backwards on something. I just don't get
paperwork advice whatever. We're going in the right direction as
regards tobacco. We're all winners, aren't we. Why are you
trying to make the such a political scrap.

Speaker 16 (01:09:49):
Well, the first point I'd like to make is that
if Mark says that is, Mark, what's going on the
background of your office isn't.

Speaker 15 (01:09:55):
B I'm on the fourth floor. I'm on the fourth floor,
and on the third floor there's renovations going on. So
I apologize. That's right.

Speaker 16 (01:10:07):
Look, it's not about public safety. It's actually about getting
people access to guns and taking away all of the
restrictions on gun rangers. And police themselves have raised this
with Mark Is the police minister multiple times. They think
it's a real public safety risk that people beyond ranges
they can't be checked and there's no police oversight. That's

(01:10:29):
a problem. That is true, Mark. I've seen documents where
police are repeatedly advising you that they don't want these
changes that Nicole McKee is bringing in.

Speaker 2 (01:10:38):
Back to the tobacco, what's the big deal on tobacco.
We're trending in the right direction. So she got some
paperwork and me who cares, Well, the.

Speaker 16 (01:10:46):
Deal is that Philip Morris benefited from the change that
they're the only one who dominates the market for the
heated tobacco product.

Speaker 2 (01:10:57):
I mean it was a tax impairment thing for the
gun but the government, we're going to get less money,
Philip Morris don't get the money.

Speaker 16 (01:11:03):
Yes, they do because they're able to sell their product
with the less of a tariff on it in a
market that has no computer.

Speaker 2 (01:11:08):
It was the only product I have it.

Speaker 15 (01:11:10):
Let me be really quick clear. Casey Costella has focused
on one thing that she has focused on reducing the
amount of spoking in our country, and she's focused on
making sure that people have got excess to alternatives that
are less harmful to allow them to transition out of that.

Speaker 8 (01:11:23):
That is what she is doing.

Speaker 3 (01:11:24):
That is kind of problem.

Speaker 2 (01:11:27):
The advice on whether they are as harmful as is ropey,
isn't it. I mean, that's part it is very ropey.

Speaker 16 (01:11:32):
That's a good point to make, Mike, because you've got
health official saying she's just googling stuff and she's doing
her own internet research, and one of them got into
trouble because in an intunal email they've caught it crap
And the reality is it's not based on good science.
It's who reckons. And when officials are pushing back and
saying that this isn't good enough, they're getting in trouble

(01:11:53):
because that the government's got a clear idea. There's one
particular company, Philip Morris, that is directly benefiting from these decisions.

Speaker 15 (01:12:00):
Welllicis have to have ministers have to trust that they
can have free and frank advice. And she was put
in an awful position by Health New Zealand because she
had the sister in law of the opposition spokes sitting
around the table. And I mean it's just there was very.

Speaker 16 (01:12:18):
And you have to.

Speaker 2 (01:12:22):
Until it became a thing in the house mark. What
are they doing is a deck indoor outdoor flow. Who's
down there on the third floor.

Speaker 15 (01:12:28):
So what So what they're doing is they're just they're
creating new officers. So they've converted it.

Speaker 2 (01:12:32):
So I thought you were I thought you were the opposite.

Speaker 16 (01:12:36):
I've got rid about in the restaurant to give ACT
some offices. And what's the costing. It's like three mil
I think three.

Speaker 2 (01:12:42):
Three million to get rid of a restaurant in the bar.

Speaker 16 (01:12:44):
Yeah, pretty much put ACT in there. I think it is.

Speaker 15 (01:12:47):
The real here is is that the speaker is trying
to make somemize space to keep everyone in the space
and reduce the footprint.

Speaker 3 (01:12:53):
So that is what we're doing.

Speaker 2 (01:12:55):
How can you run anything, Mark with that sort of
noise going on?

Speaker 15 (01:12:59):
Yeah, it's hard. I'm I had to go down stairs
because I've doing some I had some more interviews, earlier
interviews and the and this is nothing like they had
the power tools going.

Speaker 2 (01:13:06):
Oh goodness, actually shot there.

Speaker 15 (01:13:08):
As I said, guys, to your mind, I'm on the
hostitue precisely in the powerfuls.

Speaker 8 (01:13:13):
Yeah.

Speaker 15 (01:13:13):
Yeah, they say no probably in the week and we accommodate.

Speaker 2 (01:13:19):
Nice to think, which appreciate it, Mark Mitchell, Ginny Anderson
for another week. It's a twenty two.

Speaker 3 (01:13:25):
The Mic Hosking Breakfast with the Range Rovere of the
Line News Talks.

Speaker 2 (01:13:29):
Head Now, Milford have been recognized as a Responsible Investment
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(01:13:50):
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(01:14:10):
Milford today. A reminder, by the way, that past performance
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and Milford Investment Funds and please read that relevant Milford
product disclosure statement at Milford Asset dot com.

Speaker 3 (01:14:25):
Husky.

Speaker 2 (01:14:26):
Very good update from It's part of the whole stress
test thing that the Reserve Bank did yesterday. The good
news that came out of that I've told you earlier
on they think that mortgage failure is going to go up.
I think they're wrong broadly speaking, but where I hope
they're right is that they see better times coming for farmers,
which is encouraging from their financial stability report in this
morning's dairy auction. If you haven't caught up on that
booming so I'll crunch a couple of numbers for you

(01:14:49):
directly after the news, just to give you a vibe
of what's going on on the land, and then we'll
get to Australia and Steve Price.

Speaker 3 (01:14:56):
Demanding the answers from the decision makers.

Speaker 1 (01:15:00):
Mike Hosking Breakfast with Bailey's Real Estate, your local experts
across residential, commercial and rural news togs head Beam.

Speaker 2 (01:15:07):
I'll come back to the reserve banks read on rural
New Zealand, I promise in just a couple of moments.
But the New York Times guild workers are on strike.
The negotiations are just time for the election, of course,
but the negotiations have been going on for over two years.
So they want a four day week. They want significant
pay increases. They want full coverageable healthcare premiums for employees
and family members. So far not so unusual. They want

(01:15:30):
non performance based annual bonuses that will cost them allegedly
the New York Times says one hundred million dollars over
three years. But then this is where it gets interesting.
They want a ban on centered products and break rooms.
I've not heard that one before. They want unlimited break time.
They want accommodation for pet bereavement. They want mandatory trigger

(01:15:51):
warnings in company meetings. Discussing events in the news. They
want more money for non white staff, they want language
that would prioritize non citizens in the US on visas
in the case of layoffs. So they're a cool bunch
to deal with.

Speaker 3 (01:16:05):
So also I can understand the center of things in.

Speaker 2 (01:16:07):
The breaking You just want to smell what you're eating
or drinking that act.

Speaker 8 (01:16:12):
I don't want some Glady air freshener.

Speaker 3 (01:16:14):
Quite well, things I.

Speaker 2 (01:16:15):
Would ask if I was on striking, I'd actually ask
for a break room before we scented it up. Twenty
two minutes away.

Speaker 21 (01:16:22):
From nine International correspondence with ins and Eye Insurance Peace
of mind for New Zealand business.

Speaker 2 (01:16:28):
I took this through plances with us.

Speaker 8 (01:16:29):
Morning mate, Hey morning.

Speaker 2 (01:16:31):
I took your tips for the cup and I went
and invested six thousand dollars on the did not and
I'm just looking for I'm just like, I can't pay
the mortgage now this week, Steve, look my humble apologies.

Speaker 8 (01:16:46):
That was a disaster. We did finish fourth and fits,
which doesn't help anybody at all. We should have followed
the guy who put one hundred dollars on a boxed trifecta,
which is where you can pick four horses and if
they finish in that order, you get a collect So
he's put one hundred on these four random horses, Knight's Choice, Warp, Speed, Okeita, Sushi,

(01:17:11):
and Dozi. How much do you reckon he won on them?

Speaker 2 (01:17:15):
I thought I read the story this morning. I thought
it was over a million bucks.

Speaker 8 (01:17:18):
Wasn't it three point two million? Why didn't I give
you those four horses?

Speaker 2 (01:17:24):
Good question, Steve? Why didn't you?

Speaker 8 (01:17:26):
Because I don't know anything about racing, and I did
preface my remarks by saying, don't follow me.

Speaker 2 (01:17:32):
Geez, three point two you wouldn't it? Not bad day?
Speaking of money, how's the vibe around these? You still
haven't cut, But I keep reiterating you haven't cut because
quite rightly, you're doing okay economically in terms of jobs
and stuff, aren't.

Speaker 8 (01:17:44):
You twelve jobs and stuff? Yes? But I mean if
you're a mortgage holder and you're coming out of fixed
interest plans with your bank, you're not very happy. So
the Reserve left it at four point three five percent.
It's been there for a year. Quite frankly, it's inflation
and the Moheur Bullock does not want to cut rates.

(01:18:05):
While inflation still are underlying inflation at three and a
half percent. But the interesting thing I think that she's
mentioned that there is a diff in inflation, but she
puts it down to handouts from the federal government. This
is the electricity payback you get from your electricity bills.
And she's warned the Albanizi government and I reckon they'll
go to the election now in at the end of February,

(01:18:28):
in early March. She has said, look, the Treasurer is
quote fully aware of the inflation or implications of his
own policies. He needs this is her direct quote, he
needs to be thinking about that because he, like me,
understands that inflation is really what's hurting people. So she's
blaming the federal government and saying, look, stop giving people

(01:18:49):
these handouts because you're adding to inflation, which means I
can't cut interest rates. And so he's got that message.
She's absolutely right. Whether the government listens, I doubt it.
I mean, don't forget I told you on Monday that
Anthony Albernezi flew over to Adelaide and handed out sixteen
billion dollars to payback x debts of Australian University students.

(01:19:11):
So that's hardly heeding the warning.

Speaker 15 (01:19:12):
Is it.

Speaker 2 (01:19:13):
Well exactly, Actually, speaking of universities, what are they doing
here because they're looking at this Australian Tertiary Education Commission
that's going to be able to set fees as are
they sort of up ending the whole sector?

Speaker 8 (01:19:24):
They are because it has been overrun by so called universities.
So this is not the sandstone universities like University of Sydney,
University in Melbourne, overrun by the importation of foreign students.
The university model is broken. They only make budgets most
Australian universities by opening their doors to foreign students who

(01:19:46):
they charge full fees too. They don't charge full fees
to Australian students and so the government has warned them
that they're going to cut back on those student visas
and so they've got to redo their model.

Speaker 2 (01:19:56):
Interesting, how long are we going to run this for?
We found another minister who asked for an upgrade. I mean,
this is going to go forever, isn't it?

Speaker 8 (01:20:05):
Probably? But this is the opposition and happens to be
Bridget Mackenzie, National Senator who was the first one out
of the Blox who started bagging Anthony. I been easy
for getting upgrades, So she said, well, I might check
on my own, And so she asked Quantus, Virgin and
Rex Airlines did I ever have any upgrades? As if
you wouldn't remember? And guess what came back? Oh, Hello,

(01:20:28):
she's failed to disclose numerous upgrades to business class on
two of the three airlines. We haven't got the full
details yet because she's going, oh, I haven't heard back
from Rex yet. I mean, seriously, how can you stand
up and bag someone for doing something you've done yourself
and pretend you can't remember. I bet you remember every
time that you have. I mean, you don't go in economy,

(01:20:48):
But if you were in economy and you had to
go to business, you'd remember that, wouldn't you?

Speaker 15 (01:20:53):
Yes?

Speaker 2 (01:20:53):
I would. Well, I can't remember economy. You know what
it's like.

Speaker 9 (01:20:58):
Now?

Speaker 2 (01:20:59):
Was sit all the way down the exactlyne The Melbourne
Cup thing is? Does it stop a nation or not?
Or is that just a cliche? Or have we moved
on a little bit because there's so much else in
life to keep our attention?

Speaker 8 (01:21:11):
Intriguing question, it stops Melbourne because it's a public holiday
and people turn it into a full day public holiday
and all take Monday off as well. It doesn't tend
to stop the rest of the country as it used to,
you know, like fifty years ago, set sixty years ago,
when I was at school, you'd stop and turn the
raid the transistor radio on and listen to the race call.

(01:21:34):
But no, it doesn't happen like that anymore. And the
spivs in Sydney try and knock it by having their
own race at Randwick, which you know they throw money at.
But it's still it's been going for one hundred and
sixty four years, so it's a great institution.

Speaker 2 (01:21:46):
Good stuff might go. Well, catch up next week. Appreciate
it very much. See Price Out of Australia.

Speaker 3 (01:21:50):
By the way.

Speaker 2 (01:21:51):
The other thing they're looking at the moment, and this
will develop, is my suspicion. So they're looking at scam
legislation the Australian government and what to do about scams
and how much the banks are involved versus tech being involved.
So the Assistant Treasurer guy called Stephen Jones, he's got
some trouble for his well, it's draft at the stage legislation.

(01:22:13):
There's a lobby group representing Meta and Google and stuff,
and they're called Digi Digi And they've got so hold
of some documents under the freedom of information laws that
say there is an extraordinary their word, not mine, extraordinary
level of engagement between Jones and Australia's banks over the
last couple of years. So they met regularly with the

(01:22:34):
Australian Banking Association and members of banks to align government
with industry efforts. Now Jones is rejectable all of this
and says it's a low wall in his words, it's
not fair, dicome, and was running a campaign for social
media platforms. Now what the Australian government, This is the
crux of it all. What the Australian government is looking
to do. The proposed regime would not follow the British model.

(01:22:54):
In the British model, banks are required to reimburse scam
victims in most cases, but Australia will instead seek to
share the responsibility between the banks, between the tech, between
the telcos and create industry coach. So, in other words,
what the social media platforms are saying is well, the
bank should be responsible because it's the banks. But hold on,

(01:23:15):
they're in bed with the banks and so what's going
on here. So we'll see where that legislation goes, whether
it becomes law, and in what shape will form, because
we of course are having similar discussions and issues here
with the same subject.

Speaker 1 (01:23:27):
Eight forty five the Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast
on iHeartRadio powered by News Talks that be.

Speaker 2 (01:23:35):
Where it's twilve minutes away from mine. So to the
Reserve banks, so they did their financial stability report. They
see better times, a better outlook for the farming community,
and of course when the farming community does well, we
all do well. The dairy oction this morning just absolutely gangbust.
A separate subject but kind of related if you know
what I mean. Look up those numbers just absolutely booming,
which is good. And the payout at the moment at
nine bucks midpoint of nine dollars is a very very

(01:23:59):
good number. In anyway, where are we at with the
farmers improve commodity prices, They like that China remains a
risk China, depending on where you look at, starting to
show some seeds of some sort of light if you want.
Manufacturings back into positive territory, but its touch and go
sentiment and the agricultural sectors improved so that's encouraging. The
Fonterra payout for the twenty three to twenty four season

(01:24:19):
at seven eighty three, well above its forecast early in
the season. As I say, currently sitting at nine for
a midpoint. Sheep farmers facing challenging times at the moment.
Operating expenses debt servicing has increased significantly. Obviously, many farmers
have also been able to slow the pace at which
they're paying down their loan principle, so the non performing
share of agriculture lending remained low. So in other words,

(01:24:41):
farmers would rather not be doing that, but the fact
that they can and are means no one's going bust
may provide the sector with an opportunity to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions through research and technological solutions. A comment on
the climate this was the delay in government policy. Knows
where we go with that, but the science will save.

(01:25:02):
This line as being used more and more often these days,
kind of in a we told you so kind of way.
Dairy better conditions in recent months. The same cannot be
said for the meat trade. We told you about meat
the other day. We're exporting to the States, well, to
the UK, well, depending on how you look at the numbers.
The numbers are up, but they're up on a lowish
base because we're not producing as much meat as we

(01:25:24):
used to and that's a problem. Previously it's been the
forestation business. This time it's drought. So because of the
drought in certain parts of the country, we're not producing
the meat. And if we can't produce the meat, we
can't chop it up and sell it to people. So
we've got some issues around there. But overall, the summation
from the Reserve Bank is things are starting to look
brighter for rural New Zealand. And we will take that

(01:25:45):
nine away from nine.

Speaker 3 (01:25:48):
Call the my costume Breakfast with Fleas, real estates news Dogs.

Speaker 2 (01:25:52):
They be five reasons each while they could win. Trump
could win because he's not in power. He seems too
he seems invis to bad news. Three is warnings on
illegal immigration resonate.

Speaker 9 (01:26:03):
Four.

Speaker 2 (01:26:03):
A lot of people don't have a degree. More people
don't have a degree than do In other words, people
who aren't highly educated like Trump. Five he's seen as
a strong man in an unstable world. All of those
you wouldn't argue with too strongly. Harris could win because
one she's not Trump. Two, she's not Biden. Three she
championed women's rights that I would start to disagree with.
Four her voters are more likely to show up. Five

(01:26:26):
she's raised and spent more money. The abortion thing, I
think is the red hearing of the entire campaign. Voting
on abortion is not a thing, but they ran that
because that's really all they had. Voting on the economy
is a thing, and that's why he would favor Trump. Mike.
The Chiefs remain unbeaten as a result of a coin flip.
I watched a bit of that yesterday playing the Buccaneers

(01:26:47):
Kansas City Chiefs. Taylor was there, just in case you're interested,
and they went to overtime. It was an exciting game.
If I was a betting man, which I'm not, I
would have bet on the Buccaneers to tip them. They're
going to lose eventually. The Chiefs, they're unbeaten to this point,
going to lose eventually, and I thought yesterday might be it.
But I was wrong. But only just that went away
over time and on the flip of a coin. They
got the ball first. If you get the ball first

(01:27:08):
and score a touchdown, you win. And that's how that
works five minutes show the election's not that easy. Five
minutes away from nine.

Speaker 3 (01:27:14):
Trending now with Chemist Wells great savings every.

Speaker 2 (01:27:19):
Day, Carmela heads or tails. I mean, that's all you need,
isn't really Honestly. Pennsylvania, Cambria and Bedford they've had problems
software malfunctions, so voting has been extended in those two
counties of Pennsylvania meantime. And Georgia, Brad Raffinsburger is still there,
after all he's been through. There were bomb threats, so
then what is it sorted or not?

Speaker 11 (01:27:42):
Then we have a few things that happened you just
can't explain, and one of them you know your in
the weed. But in Peach County this morning it was
a call down there, so someone plugged down the space
heater that was also serving the county e mass for
the election management system, and so fried that. So it
was replaced this morning. But those are the kind of

(01:28:04):
things you just kind of don't expect. But very minor issue.
Have we actually even gotten some great feedback already, forty
emails stead of being dogcast, forty emails telling us they
had a great experience. We want everyone in Georgia to
know that I've let on making sure that we lead
the nation on having fast, secure and actric elections.

Speaker 2 (01:28:27):
He's right, you can't argue with forty emails, He's And
you wonder why Trump had trouble with them. I mean
when he rang up and see, can you find me
eleven hundred or eleven thousand, whatever number it votes? What
was Braid going to do?

Speaker 1 (01:28:39):
Don't you hate it when you're plug in the space
heater and take the entire voting system down.

Speaker 2 (01:28:44):
What I've discovered about America I haven't discovered at the
storm have known about America for ages. If you get
outside the glitz and the glamour of downtown New York
and downtown Los Angeles, there's a lot of America, and
I mean a lot of America that really is in
not only another world, but another time. And it's not
really a place you want to beat simply. And it's

(01:29:09):
when you're plugging the space heater into the somehow they're
going to gather all the votes together and open all
the envelopes and add them all up, and something's going
to happen. And that may happen today or it may not,
and so we may be here this time tomorrow, So
I'm pretty much the same sort of thing as we're

(01:29:30):
saying today. Let's hope it's tomorrow, but anyway, for now
there is hope coverage throughout the day. Of course on
News Talks there'd be and we look for coming on
the morning from six as always.

Speaker 3 (01:29:40):
Happiness for more from the Mic Asking Breakfast.

Speaker 1 (01:29:46):
Listen live to News Talks it'd be from six am weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.

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