February 9, 2025 • 7 mins
Melbourne suburbs Werribee and Prahran have seen the Liberal party secure a major election victory, as the Green concede.
Traditionally Labor 'heartland', Werribee has been an uninterrupted seat since 1979.
Australian Correspondent Steve Price joins the show to discuss what this means for a coalition, whether or not Peter Dutton can win the election, and why these developments may push the election date out.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Right in Australia. See Price morning to you good there.
Talk to me Steven about the Thirteenth Beach Golf Links.
What do you know?
Speaker 2 (00:10):
It gets very windy and they had the Victorian Open
being played there yesterday, correct, and at one point the
players asked for the tournament to be halted because the
wind was blowing the balls off the green.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Do you live that way?
Speaker 2 (00:26):
As the crow flies? I'm about probably ten k from there.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Right, because I looked at that place yesterday and I thought,
what a god forsaken play. I mean, if you're into
like pretending you're in Scotland and playing links golf in
a storm, that'd be great. Does it blow like that often?
Speaker 2 (00:42):
No, not very often. Yesterday was the windy st I've
ever had it. To you, it was very, very very windy.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
New Zealander won. Now what I'm really interested in is
this business of a Paran's gone. So the Greens have
lost that wire Abee two by elections. What do you
reckon the chances of the Coalition picking this up once
they know work through all the numbers.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Today, I don't think they've got enough volks left to
win it. But this is I mean to describe it.
For people. This is labor heartland, Whereriby is about fifteen
to twenty kilometers west of Melbourne. Would have been held
the seat there uninterrupted since about nineteen seventy nine. The
former treasurer, who who has wrecked the economy of Victoria,
(01:23):
decided he was not going to play politics anymore, so
quit that's why there was a by election. The swing
there now looks like being the primary vote swing of
about fifteen percent against labor. Everyone says, why is that
the case? Well, these poor people, I mean sometimes they
sit for an hour on the one road in, the
one road out trying to get onto the freeway. So
(01:44):
they are local issues. But I think everyone's attention has
now turned to the fact that we're going to federal
election coming up. What's this mean for labor? And it
means that labor is on the nose big time in
Victoria and voters are not differentiating between local issues and
feder issues. Crime is a big one in that area
and so they're going to blame anyone they can, and
(02:05):
I think Labour's going to have a real problem in
holding some of these outer suburban seats. There's another poll
published today that showed if an election was held this weekend,
it would be very very tight. Now Labor federally Mike
Hold's twenty four seats in Victoria, so they could win.
The coalition could win the election in Victoria alone, let
(02:26):
alone what they might do in New South Wales and
Queensland and other places. And so there'd be a lot
of head scratching in camera this morning from Labor about
what they can do to reinvent their brand. Quite simply,
what's happened is the outer suburban ring, which was largely
blue collar Labor, have now decided that Labor is not
(02:47):
doing anything for them both federally in state, and so
they're going to vote for either an independent or someone
from the coalition. Ken Peter dudn't win an election. I'm
not sure yet.
Speaker 1 (02:58):
Start So that was my next part. So good answer.
So they need to win from memory about eighteen seats
to flip eighteen seats? Can Does this change the conversation
materially out of the weekend all by itself or not?
Speaker 2 (03:12):
Really? Yeah, it probably does. It probably pushes the election
out to the last possible time that they can do it.
It probably also says to Labor that okay, if we
do that we've got to have a budget. If we
have a budget, we're we're going to look after these
people who've turned on us. We've got to somehow find
in the budget enough money to start pushing money toward
(03:34):
the projects that they want fixed. I think the time's
too short for them. I think the mood in the
country's already turned. You've got to remember Tony Abbott when
he beat Kevin Rudd won sixteen seats. It's not impossible,
but eighteen's are very big. Ask Peter Dutton is performing
pretty well at the moment, Anthony albit easy And this
(03:54):
is the other crucial point is looking like a week leader,
and people don't like week leaders. Really.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
What I did say as I was watching a bit
of it on Saturday night because I was interested for
this very reason, this preferencing thing. You've got the actual
vote they got the coalition versus what they ended up
with once your preferenced at all. I mean there's a
huge difference, isn't there?
Speaker 2 (04:15):
Yeah? There is. I mean the way our system works
is that preferences flow on from whoever you tick number
one and whoever that if you follow the how to
vote card to that candidate. Then often what will happen
is the Labor candidate. It gets a huge number of
Greens preferences. Now, what Labour stupidly did in that pran
(04:36):
by elections didn't stand a candidate. If they had, the
Greens would have probably held that seat and the Liberals
wouldn't be running around today crowing. It's a very very
complicated system and most people, you know, people I know,
people who've been around a long time, still don't understand
how voting preferences were.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
I'm assuming elbows desperate for something to happen with Michelle
at the Reserve Bank tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
Yeah, Look, we've had twelve rate rises in a row.
There's been no cut since Anthony Albanez he came to
power two and a half years ago. The bank has
left the rate on hold. Now I think for the
last three times. We'll know by about two thirty our
time tomorrow whether the bank will go from a cash
rate of four point three five percent to four point one.
(05:23):
The economists as usually a split Most of them seem
to think that there's a chance that will happened. I
was not so sure. Caution is something that Michelle Bullock
is very good at and I wouldn't be surprised tomorrow
if she comes out and they leave it.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
On old Very interesting. I know that Miles was Defense Minister.
Miles was in the States meeting hig Seth over the
weekend and he handed over check for eight hundred million
on Orcus. Has anything materially changed because of Trump?
Speaker 2 (05:51):
Not yet. Tariffs and what China might do will have
a big impact on Australia. Everyone was saying, oh, well,
isn't it great that we've got a solid relationship with
the United States and they're our greatest partner in the world.
It does help when you turn up with a bag
with eight hundred million dollars in it. But Orcas seems
to be still on track. There was some fear that
(06:12):
Donald Trump would blow that up, but he seems not.
He's got a few other things to worry about before
he starts looking at whether Australia and summer injuries problem.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
You're a good blake see Wednesday. Appreciated Steve Price out
of Australia this morning. Just quickly. I've been following with
an element of interest a trial, a court case that's
going on in Sydney and has been covered breathlessly by
the Australian media, mainly because the ABC, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation,
have turned out to be complete and other buffoons. There's
a woman called latouf who got sacked by the ABC
(06:44):
and she's suing them for wrongful dismissal. She got sacked
because she got hired as a fillin and she then
posted some stuff on her social media about the Palestinians
and the ABC. Public broadcasters are supposed to be neutral,
which of course they're not, but this just proved they're
(07:06):
not anyway. The funny thing was, this is how it
was written up the other day. Hello, this is the newspaper,
the Sydney Morning Held. Hello and welcome back to our
coverage of the Antoinette Latoh versus ABC trial in the
Federal Court. I am Callan Jaspin and today it is
day five of the proceedings, which just so happens to
be the same length of time. Latoupe was employed to
fill in as a casual presenter on the ABC Radio
(07:28):
Sidney in December of twenty twenty three. She got sacked.
This is the irony of this. She got sacked after
day three, day three of her five day contract. The
trial will last longer than her entire career. For more
from the Mike Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks.
It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast
(07:50):
on iHeartRadio
Right in Australia. See Price morning to you good there.
Talk to me Steven about the Thirteenth Beach Golf Links.
What do you know?
Speaker 2 (00:10):
It gets very windy and they had the Victorian Open
being played there yesterday, correct, and at one point the
players asked for the tournament to be halted because the
wind was blowing the balls off the green.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Do you live that way?
Speaker 2 (00:26):
As the crow flies? I'm about probably ten k from there.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Right, because I looked at that place yesterday and I thought,
what a god forsaken play. I mean, if you're into
like pretending you're in Scotland and playing links golf in
a storm, that'd be great. Does it blow like that often?
Speaker 2 (00:42):
No, not very often. Yesterday was the windy st I've
ever had it. To you, it was very, very very windy.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
New Zealander won. Now what I'm really interested in is
this business of a Paran's gone. So the Greens have
lost that wire Abee two by elections. What do you
reckon the chances of the Coalition picking this up once
they know work through all the numbers.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Today, I don't think they've got enough volks left to
win it. But this is I mean to describe it.
For people. This is labor heartland, Whereriby is about fifteen
to twenty kilometers west of Melbourne. Would have been held
the seat there uninterrupted since about nineteen seventy nine. The
former treasurer, who who has wrecked the economy of Victoria,
(01:23):
decided he was not going to play politics anymore, so
quit that's why there was a by election. The swing
there now looks like being the primary vote swing of
about fifteen percent against labor. Everyone says, why is that
the case? Well, these poor people, I mean sometimes they
sit for an hour on the one road in, the
one road out trying to get onto the freeway. So
(01:44):
they are local issues. But I think everyone's attention has
now turned to the fact that we're going to federal
election coming up. What's this mean for labor? And it
means that labor is on the nose big time in
Victoria and voters are not differentiating between local issues and
feder issues. Crime is a big one in that area
and so they're going to blame anyone they can, and
(02:05):
I think Labour's going to have a real problem in
holding some of these outer suburban seats. There's another poll
published today that showed if an election was held this weekend,
it would be very very tight. Now Labor federally Mike
Hold's twenty four seats in Victoria, so they could win.
The coalition could win the election in Victoria alone, let
(02:26):
alone what they might do in New South Wales and
Queensland and other places. And so there'd be a lot
of head scratching in camera this morning from Labor about
what they can do to reinvent their brand. Quite simply,
what's happened is the outer suburban ring, which was largely
blue collar Labor, have now decided that Labor is not
(02:47):
doing anything for them both federally in state, and so
they're going to vote for either an independent or someone
from the coalition. Ken Peter dudn't win an election. I'm
not sure yet.
Speaker 1 (02:58):
Start So that was my next part. So good answer.
So they need to win from memory about eighteen seats
to flip eighteen seats? Can Does this change the conversation
materially out of the weekend all by itself or not?
Speaker 2 (03:12):
Really? Yeah, it probably does. It probably pushes the election
out to the last possible time that they can do it.
It probably also says to Labor that okay, if we
do that we've got to have a budget. If we
have a budget, we're we're going to look after these
people who've turned on us. We've got to somehow find
in the budget enough money to start pushing money toward
(03:34):
the projects that they want fixed. I think the time's
too short for them. I think the mood in the
country's already turned. You've got to remember Tony Abbott when
he beat Kevin Rudd won sixteen seats. It's not impossible,
but eighteen's are very big. Ask Peter Dutton is performing
pretty well at the moment, Anthony albit easy And this
(03:54):
is the other crucial point is looking like a week leader,
and people don't like week leaders. Really.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
What I did say as I was watching a bit
of it on Saturday night because I was interested for
this very reason, this preferencing thing. You've got the actual
vote they got the coalition versus what they ended up
with once your preferenced at all. I mean there's a
huge difference, isn't there?
Speaker 2 (04:15):
Yeah? There is. I mean the way our system works
is that preferences flow on from whoever you tick number
one and whoever that if you follow the how to
vote card to that candidate. Then often what will happen
is the Labor candidate. It gets a huge number of
Greens preferences. Now, what Labour stupidly did in that pran
(04:36):
by elections didn't stand a candidate. If they had, the
Greens would have probably held that seat and the Liberals
wouldn't be running around today crowing. It's a very very
complicated system and most people, you know, people I know,
people who've been around a long time, still don't understand
how voting preferences were.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
I'm assuming elbows desperate for something to happen with Michelle
at the Reserve Bank tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
Yeah, Look, we've had twelve rate rises in a row.
There's been no cut since Anthony Albanez he came to
power two and a half years ago. The bank has
left the rate on hold. Now I think for the
last three times. We'll know by about two thirty our
time tomorrow whether the bank will go from a cash
rate of four point three five percent to four point one.
(05:23):
The economists as usually a split Most of them seem
to think that there's a chance that will happened. I
was not so sure. Caution is something that Michelle Bullock
is very good at and I wouldn't be surprised tomorrow
if she comes out and they leave it.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
On old Very interesting. I know that Miles was Defense Minister.
Miles was in the States meeting hig Seth over the
weekend and he handed over check for eight hundred million
on Orcus. Has anything materially changed because of Trump?
Speaker 2 (05:51):
Not yet. Tariffs and what China might do will have
a big impact on Australia. Everyone was saying, oh, well,
isn't it great that we've got a solid relationship with
the United States and they're our greatest partner in the world.
It does help when you turn up with a bag
with eight hundred million dollars in it. But Orcas seems
to be still on track. There was some fear that
(06:12):
Donald Trump would blow that up, but he seems not.
He's got a few other things to worry about before
he starts looking at whether Australia and summer injuries problem.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
You're a good blake see Wednesday. Appreciated Steve Price out
of Australia this morning. Just quickly. I've been following with
an element of interest a trial, a court case that's
going on in Sydney and has been covered breathlessly by
the Australian media, mainly because the ABC, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation,
have turned out to be complete and other buffoons. There's
a woman called latouf who got sacked by the ABC
(06:44):
and she's suing them for wrongful dismissal. She got sacked
because she got hired as a fillin and she then
posted some stuff on her social media about the Palestinians
and the ABC. Public broadcasters are supposed to be neutral,
which of course they're not, but this just proved they're
(07:06):
not anyway. The funny thing was, this is how it
was written up the other day. Hello, this is the newspaper,
the Sydney Morning Held. Hello and welcome back to our
coverage of the Antoinette Latoh versus ABC trial in the
Federal Court. I am Callan Jaspin and today it is
day five of the proceedings, which just so happens to
be the same length of time. Latoupe was employed to
fill in as a casual presenter on the ABC Radio
(07:28):
Sidney in December of twenty twenty three. She got sacked.
This is the irony of this. She got sacked after
day three, day three of her five day contract. The
trial will last longer than her entire career. For more
from the Mike Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks.
It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast
(07:50):
on iHeartRadio
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