Keir Giles: Chatham House Senior Russian Expert on the impact of the talks between Russia and the US

There's a potential new era in European security. 

The US has got Russia to the table to reach three key agreements, including reinstating ambassadors to each other's countries during high-level talks in Saudi Arabia. 

Neither Ukraine nor Europe were invited. 

Senior Russian expert at Britain's Chatham House think tank, Keir Giles told Mike Hosking these are historic moments. 

He says it's a huge upset to the assumptions under-pinning Euro-Atlantic security and the United States' place in the world. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So the talks to in the war underway Ibane as
well where between the US and of course with Russia
in Saudi Arabia, several parties missing there, which is part
of the ongoing angst in Europe as we saw in
the last twenty four hours. Senior expert on Russia at
Britains Chathamouse Kiir Giles as well as Kia morning.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
To you, good morning Egg.

Speaker 1 (00:15):
Just in a very broad based question what we are
seeing in the last week or so, this tumult. Where
do you place it in terms of history?

Speaker 2 (00:25):
It is a historical moment for sure. It's a huge
upsetting of all of the assumptions that were underpinning everything
to do with Euroatlantic security and by extension, everything about
the United States is place in the world for all
of those alliances, all of those partnerships globally. Where the
United States was the underpinning of what kept the world secure,

(00:47):
now suddenly it's the world's biggest problem. And that of
course is a massive turning point. It's not just Europe
that should be concerned, it's everywhere that sought protection from
aggressive neighbors with the United States its partner, and now
finds that the United States is the aggressor.

Speaker 1 (01:03):
So what we got publicly anyway out of this meeting
overnight in read was that Levrov wants the like put
aside that two thousand and eight promise on NATO disavow
yourself of that. What else do they need?

Speaker 2 (01:16):
Well, there are some very fundamental differences between what the
two sides went into these talks expecting to get out
of it. Now, you mentioned a moment ago that these
were talks to end the war or not. As far
as Russia is concerned, Russia wanted from this a normalization
of relations with the United States, and because they had
a plan, that's what they came up with. Meanwhile, the
US said it was just trying to gauge how interested

(01:39):
Russia was in peace. Well, we know how interested Russia
was in peace. If they wanted peace, they would just
stop fighting the war and go home. So the two
sides had very different expectations, very different results coming out
of it. And essentially, as so often, Russia has come
out of this getting everything they want and the United
States is left scratching their heads.

Speaker 1 (01:57):
So where does this leave a Putin Trump meeting? Do
they need to go a lot further down the road?
Before that happens or not.

Speaker 2 (02:02):
Well, nobody was expecting. Some people are promising and pouting
Trump meeting soon, but nobody was realistic. He is expecting
this to happen, and of course that is a carrot
that Russia can dangle to get further concessions from the
United States. They know that Trump wants this, They know
that Trump is keen on rehabilitating Russia, welcoming put him
back in, not as an internationally wanted war criminal, but

(02:24):
actually his best mate, to bring him over to the
United States. And of course they will play along with that,
and they will get as much as they can from
the Trump administration in return.

Speaker 1 (02:33):
Right, But Putin also, I'm assuming wants the water we're
in for domestic purposes. It's a meat grinder out there,
and I'm assuming a number of Russians are getting a
bit sick of it.

Speaker 2 (02:43):
That's a perfectly reasonable logical assumption when you look at
it from any normal country, and in particular any democracy.
But it doesn't seem to be the direction that Russia
is going Now. Nobody's in any doubt that this is
causing huge, irreversible damage to the Russian economy. It's chewed
through hundreds of thousands of Russians their lives, they're dead
or maimed, but Russia is showing every sign of pressing

(03:04):
on regardless because those aren't important compared to the price
that they have their eyes on. If they were to
be deterred by any of those, there's things they would
have stopped by now.

Speaker 1 (03:13):
So we've got a ways to go. We'll stay in
contact here. Appreciate very much. Kia Jiles, who's senior expert
on Russia at Chathamhouse in Britain.

Speaker 2 (03:21):
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