Consumer confidence perked up in February to 96.6.
Perceptions of personal finance situations was up five points, with 21 percent expecting to be better of this time next year.
Greg Smith of Devon Funds Management breaks down the findings with Mike Hosking.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
From Devon Fund's management Monday, Mon and Greg, how are
(00:02):
you morning?
Speaker 2 (00:03):
My good? Thank you?
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Now poort a tower on thatw that looked okay to me.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Yeah, it is a pretty good result. So look, it
was a mixed dole earning season but finished on a
pretty good note. So poor a tower on of those years.
Rallied on their results a strong half year. The profit
after text up twenty seven percent sixty point two mil.
Revenue up twelve and a half percent to twenty five million.
So volume is pretty good, up seven percent, twelve point
four million tons, contains up teen percent, imports up fifteen percent,
(00:30):
exports up three percent. The only weakness was in the
logs that was down ten percent, but it was against
a tough comparative when there was lots of wind damaged
logs being shipped the year prior. But yeah, generally a
pretty good story and also benefiting from higher price as
Mike so the charge and more stuff going for the
port and the charging war for it. So that I
lifted their profit guidance range to between one hundred and
(00:50):
fifteen one hundred and twenty five mil for FY twenty five,
and that's up one hundred and two The year price
and this is like the result up two point seven percent.
Another domestic name reporting was Somerset. Yeah, there's a bit
of anticipation around the retirement key homes was out given
Ryman's billion dollar capital rays. But yeah, those beers were
laid so before we're operating profit that up. That was
(01:11):
up eight percent to a record two and six point
four million. Revenues are of eight percent, occupation right sales
are up twelve percent, and the gearing ratio a lot
of focus on that thirty six percent, so they're under
less pressure it scenes balance sheet wise than Ryman. So
a week property marketing is residents sort of taking longer
to get into their homes. Yeah, that weighed a bit
in terms of revaluation, so that the bottom line fell
(01:34):
by fifty three and thirty nine point eight million, but
over all the underlung was was really good. So those
years up five and a half percent. And yeah, I
suppose the uning season that's over. It started pretty well.
You think likes of A two pretty mixed in the middle,
offshore and exported off your focus names and exports are
doing pretty well. Domestic ones less sober. Yeah, we might
have a better reporting season to look forward to later
(01:56):
in the years. Those interest rate cuts feed through fingers crossed.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Co confidence in the old consumer department just means a
little bit there isn't there.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Yeah, I'd say a temper increase in a depressed base.
This is the A and Z Roy Morgan Consumer Conference
that was up slightly in February ninety six point six,
so perceptions of personal financial situations that was up five
points but still negative negative twelve percent and net twenty
one percent. Expect to be better off at this time
next year, but perceptions will go on the outlook and
(02:25):
twelve months time economically that actually eased a point five
I measures still steady at five percent, the interesting one
for retailers and net fifteen percent still reckon. It's a
bad time to buy a major household irons that's pre subdued,
so we're probably more rate cups there. But yeah, just
on that front. ABNZ will mention what inflation and the
outlooker is doing. And the two year basis for consumers
(02:47):
is lifted juster point one percentage point four percents. That
was good. So as we saw the business outlook, consumers
are being a lot more optimistic than there were six
months ago, but sort of marginal gains each month, and
they're not exactly in hardy mode. But the actually have
seen one retail reports on green Shoots the Hellenstein Glass
and they said that sales for the six months are
(03:07):
up seven point seven percent. They overcon that profit's going
to be around about twenty one million for the full year,
which would be in line with last year's record, but
they did say margin still pressurized, so it seems discounting
is needed to attract shoppers. And I think that something's
up right.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
So the Personal Consumption Expectation FED loves it. It looks okay,
didn't it?
Speaker 2 (03:27):
It looks okay. So this is a bit bit of
a relief around this. This is the fed's preferred inflation gauge,
so we had seen a hot than expected inflation print
earlier in the month, so this will sort of provide
a little bit of comfort around that. So obviously a
lot of focus on tariffs and what that's going to
do to inflation. But yeah, the pcees it's known that
increased point three percent for the month, two point five
(03:48):
percent annually, and the main measure might core PC that
takes that volatile food energy that was just up zero
point three percent for the month and two point six
percent annually, So that was down from two point nine
percent in December. So a lot of relief there. Just
a couple of other quick notes personal income that rose
much sharper than expected, in fact double expectations. Hir incomes.
(04:08):
They didn't see increased spinnings that decrease point two percent.
So maybe Americans are beatting down the hatches. There's savings
rate picked up, and possibly they're being a bit more frugal.
But you just on inflation. The odds of a June
rate cut have increased to just above seventy percent. Markets
expecting two rate cuts by the end of the year.
Speaker 1 (04:26):
Okay, numbers please.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
Yeah. So it was a bright day on the boards
in the US. So the Dow was at one point
four percent forty three eight forty s and p at
one point six percent as well as was the Nars
deck foot see one hundred point six percent. In the UK,
A six two hundred was down one point two percent.
We had a good strong day, up half percent twelve
six zero one for the insex fifty goal down twenty
(04:49):
dollars to eight five seven an ounce. Oil down fifty
cents sixty nine spots seventy six a barrel. Currency markets
key we down slightly against the US fifty six. Even
Australian we're ninety point two. That was down slightly. British
pound forty four point five down there as well. Japanese
yen pretty flat eighty four point three this week, Mike,
we've got a bit going on again. So the evening
(05:10):
season is sort of closed down in New Zealand, but
we've got building permits, trade data and another global dairy
auction on the U s Uning's front. I've got Costco
Hewlett Packer data wise, we've got the RBA minutes, we've
got Ozzie GDP, we're got non farm payrolls, and we've
got the ECB their meeting and they're expected to cut
go well.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
Matin Greg Smith, devon Funds Management.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
news talks it'd b from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
From Devon Fund's management Monday, Mon and Greg, how are
(00:02):
you morning?
Speaker 2 (00:03):
My good? Thank you?
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Now poort a tower on thatw that looked okay to me.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Yeah, it is a pretty good result. So look, it
was a mixed dole earning season but finished on a
pretty good note. So poor a tower on of those years.
Rallied on their results a strong half year. The profit
after text up twenty seven percent sixty point two mil.
Revenue up twelve and a half percent to twenty five million.
So volume is pretty good, up seven percent, twelve point
four million tons, contains up teen percent, imports up fifteen percent,
(00:30):
exports up three percent. The only weakness was in the
logs that was down ten percent, but it was against
a tough comparative when there was lots of wind damaged
logs being shipped the year prior. But yeah, generally a
pretty good story and also benefiting from higher price as
Mike so the charge and more stuff going for the
port and the charging war for it. So that I
lifted their profit guidance range to between one hundred and
(00:50):
fifteen one hundred and twenty five mil for FY twenty five,
and that's up one hundred and two The year price
and this is like the result up two point seven percent.
Another domestic name reporting was Somerset. Yeah, there's a bit
of anticipation around the retirement key homes was out given
Ryman's billion dollar capital rays. But yeah, those beers were
laid so before we're operating profit that up. That was
(01:11):
up eight percent to a record two and six point
four million. Revenues are of eight percent, occupation right sales
are up twelve percent, and the gearing ratio a lot
of focus on that thirty six percent, so they're under
less pressure it scenes balance sheet wise than Ryman. So
a week property marketing is residents sort of taking longer
to get into their homes. Yeah, that weighed a bit
in terms of revaluation, so that the bottom line fell
(01:34):
by fifty three and thirty nine point eight million, but
over all the underlung was was really good. So those
years up five and a half percent. And yeah, I
suppose the uning season that's over. It started pretty well.
You think likes of A two pretty mixed in the middle,
offshore and exported off your focus names and exports are
doing pretty well. Domestic ones less sober. Yeah, we might
have a better reporting season to look forward to later
(01:56):
in the years. Those interest rate cuts feed through fingers crossed.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Co confidence in the old consumer department just means a
little bit there isn't there.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Yeah, I'd say a temper increase in a depressed base.
This is the A and Z Roy Morgan Consumer Conference
that was up slightly in February ninety six point six,
so perceptions of personal financial situations that was up five
points but still negative negative twelve percent and net twenty
one percent. Expect to be better off at this time
next year, but perceptions will go on the outlook and
(02:25):
twelve months time economically that actually eased a point five
I measures still steady at five percent, the interesting one
for retailers and net fifteen percent still reckon. It's a
bad time to buy a major household irons that's pre subdued,
so we're probably more rate cups there. But yeah, just
on that front. ABNZ will mention what inflation and the
outlooker is doing. And the two year basis for consumers
(02:47):
is lifted juster point one percentage point four percents. That
was good. So as we saw the business outlook, consumers
are being a lot more optimistic than there were six
months ago, but sort of marginal gains each month, and
they're not exactly in hardy mode. But the actually have
seen one retail reports on green Shoots the Hellenstein Glass
and they said that sales for the six months are
(03:07):
up seven point seven percent. They overcon that profit's going
to be around about twenty one million for the full year,
which would be in line with last year's record, but
they did say margin still pressurized, so it seems discounting
is needed to attract shoppers. And I think that something's
up right.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
So the Personal Consumption Expectation FED loves it. It looks okay,
didn't it?
Speaker 2 (03:27):
It looks okay. So this is a bit bit of
a relief around this. This is the fed's preferred inflation gauge,
so we had seen a hot than expected inflation print
earlier in the month, so this will sort of provide
a little bit of comfort around that. So obviously a
lot of focus on tariffs and what that's going to
do to inflation. But yeah, the pcees it's known that
increased point three percent for the month, two point five
(03:48):
percent annually, and the main measure might core PC that
takes that volatile food energy that was just up zero
point three percent for the month and two point six
percent annually, So that was down from two point nine
percent in December. So a lot of relief there. Just
a couple of other quick notes personal income that rose
much sharper than expected, in fact double expectations. Hir incomes.
(04:08):
They didn't see increased spinnings that decrease point two percent.
So maybe Americans are beatting down the hatches. There's savings
rate picked up, and possibly they're being a bit more frugal.
But you just on inflation. The odds of a June
rate cut have increased to just above seventy percent. Markets
expecting two rate cuts by the end of the year.
Speaker 1 (04:26):
Okay, numbers please.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
Yeah. So it was a bright day on the boards
in the US. So the Dow was at one point
four percent forty three eight forty s and p at
one point six percent as well as was the Nars
deck foot see one hundred point six percent. In the UK,
A six two hundred was down one point two percent.
We had a good strong day, up half percent twelve
six zero one for the insex fifty goal down twenty
(04:49):
dollars to eight five seven an ounce. Oil down fifty
cents sixty nine spots seventy six a barrel. Currency markets
key we down slightly against the US fifty six. Even
Australian we're ninety point two. That was down slightly. British
pound forty four point five down there as well. Japanese
yen pretty flat eighty four point three this week, Mike,
we've got a bit going on again. So the evening
(05:10):
season is sort of closed down in New Zealand, but
we've got building permits, trade data and another global dairy
auction on the U s Uning's front. I've got Costco
Hewlett Packer data wise, we've got the RBA minutes, we've
got Ozzie GDP, we're got non farm payrolls, and we've
got the ECB their meeting and they're expected to cut
go well.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
Matin Greg Smith, devon Funds Management.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
news talks it'd b from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
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