Jimmy Rushton: Security Analyst on Trump's policy on Ukraine and the deal between Russia and Ukraine

A security analyst says it's likely Trump's hardball foreign policy with Ukraine is part of his promise to deliver a peace deal as fast as possible. 

Ukraine's President says he's ready to sign a minerals deal and reach a peace deal only hours after America's decision to pause military aid. 

It also follows a fiery White House meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump. 

A Kyiv-based security analyst Jimmy Rushton told Mike Hosking Trump's been putting a lot of pressure on Zelenskyy to sign a deal without a US security guarantee. 

He thinks the President's found Russia won't budge and it'll be easier to get Ukraine to sign to unfavourable terms. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So with America hitting paus on the military aid for
the war, the question now is at the end of
Americans involvement or a technic to get the mineral deal
signed off key based foreign policy and security animals. Jimmy
Rushton with This Morning, Good Morning. Has Zelynsky caved when
he sees, you know, the bold leadership of Donald Trump
and were ready to go on minerals. Was this a
tectic in its wood?

Speaker 2 (00:20):
I think it is a tactic. I wouldn't say that
he's caved because the Ukrainians were always prepared to sign
this minerals deal. They would have signed it, you know,
in the White House a few days ago. But obviously
there was that unfortunate confrontation largely initiated by j. D.
Vance and Donald Trump, and then Zelensky was asked to leave.

(00:42):
But you know, now he's kind of expressing regret for
what happened, and I think, to be honest, that's genuine.
Everyone in the Ukrainian government regrets what's happened, and he's
prepared to sign this deal and attempt to rebuild a
relationship with the White House.

Speaker 1 (00:55):
Is there a realization that without America, Ukraine's finish.

Speaker 2 (01:01):
I know, and to be honest, that's not actually true.
If you know, America is incredibly important. But right now
Ukraine provides around about forty to fifty percent of its
you know, war material production, and then you have the
Europeans and the Americans that provide around about twenty five
percent each. So without America it would be tough. But

(01:22):
there are you know, there are things that Ukrainians can do.
There's obviously things that Europeans can do, and also obviously
New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Ukraine's other allies outside of Europe
to kind of to fill that gap that that America
will leave. It will be a big gap, but you
know it is possible for those countries to replace what
America provides.

Speaker 1 (01:41):
What what bendor Lyne was talking about iban night, the
one in our money one and a half trillion dollars
in loans and in other words Europe stepping up? Is
that real or is that just panic and panicked talk?

Speaker 2 (01:53):
So look, I think there is panic here, There's there's
panic everywhere, especially in London at the moment, which is
trying to you know, kissed on one. A lot of
plaudits for handling Trump. But then you know, he really
now has to cash in those that relationship that he
managed to build, because at the moment, it does seem
like America is on the verge of ending the trans

(02:16):
Atlantic Alliance, which has served European and global security generally
pretty well for the last you know, since the Second
World War, and there is panic. I think you're asking
a lot of proposals. Generally, what happens is some of
these proposals move forward, some of them don't for various reasons.
But I think there is there is a serious understanding
that europe will have to spend money, have to step up,

(02:38):
you know, have to take their security seriously.

Speaker 1 (02:41):
Now, this is why I can't understand, Jimmy. I can't
work out what Trump's trying to do. Is Trump trying
to do just a business deal, He's not interested in war.
Let's get to the table, let's get a ceasefire, and
let's get this done. Or is Trump doing Russia's bidding
and you sign the minerals deal, so America gets a
whole bunch of stuff, Russia gets some land, and he's
out of there.

Speaker 2 (03:00):
It's really difficult to kind of ascribe strategic thinking to
Donald Trump. He seems to be very very reactionary. He's
very transactional. I think, you know, he made these big
promises that he could end this war and they would
be really, really easy, and I suspect that he's found that, actually,
you know, the Russians song could give an inch, and
he believes that he can more effectively threaten Ukraine to

(03:22):
agree to unfavorable terms, then he can threaten the Russians
to agree to unfavorable terms. And I think that's what's happening.
The problem is that the Americans really have overestimated their
power and they don't really understand the situation on the front,
which is not catastrophic for Ukraine really at all. The
Russians are looking pretty ragged currently, and you know, he

(03:44):
seems to be overplaying his hand. You know, he likes
these poker references. He said, Zelensky has no no cars
and play. Well, actually they do. And you know, if
he wants to end this war, Ukraine has to agree
to that as well, not just Russia.

Speaker 1 (03:57):
What's it like in keeb at the moment.

Speaker 2 (04:01):
It's to be honest, it's not that bad. We've been
having quite heavy air raids for the last month. Or
so a lot of these shahis, which are these Iranian
supplied Kamikazi drones. But in the last couple of days
it's been relatively quiet. You know, we've got power. The
Ukrainian air defenses and the Ukrainian electricity guys have been

(04:21):
absolutely amazing. We haven't really had any power cuts this
winter compared to the last couple of years where we
had days aout power at times. So you know, again
the situation on the home front here is relatively stable.
I was on the front lines about two and a
half weeks ago speaking to some guys in th the
Sort Brigade, which is one of the Ukrainian military's premiere units,
and their morale is very, very high. They're inflicting severe

(04:44):
casualties on the Russians, and you know that they're even
making advances in some places along the front, as we
went to Rets for example, and they're inflicting staggering losses
on the Russians. So the idea that this is all
kind of a one sided war and that Russia is
just pushing forward and you know, the Ukrainians have not
going to ans, it's just not true, to be honest.

Speaker 1 (05:01):
All right, Jimmy will stay in touch. Appreciate Jimmy Rushton,
who's in key for us this morning.

Speaker 2 (05:06):
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