Paul Spoonley: Massey University Sociologist on the net migration rate decreasing

A sociologist isn't worried about net migration inching closer to zero. 

New Stats NZ data shows there was an annual net migration gain of around 32,000 in the year to January, down on December. 

Migrant departures also rose 18% to almost 123,000 in that time, the highest on record for an annual period. 

But Massey University's Paul Spoonley told Mike Hosking we don't know about the skills of those departing. 

He says we also need to ask if we're also seeing unskilled and semi-skilled workers leaving and therefore exporting part of our unemployment rate. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
These stats yet again, are glass our full? I suppose
we aren't leaving as quickly as we once were, although
year on year it's still another record, it's just monthly
numbers show it is slowing. MASSI University sociologist Paul Spoonley's back. Well,
there's Paul, morning to you.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
Yeah, good morning mate.

Speaker 1 (00:13):
When does this flush through and we get a vibe?
I mean the number is the net gain is thirty
something thousand? How long before we can go? Right? This
is about where we're at for now.

Speaker 2 (00:24):
Well, I would really like us to identify how fast
we're going to grow and just listening to your previous interviewee,
I think one of the things they're going to be
looking for is the continuity of skill supply. So we
need to factor in how many skilled people we need
and what sector and he mentioned construction, which is a

(00:45):
sector which is under pressure at the moment, and we
need to put that together. You know, who do we
train on shore? Who do we bring in from offshore
is a key question in terms of the summit.

Speaker 1 (00:56):
I'm so glad you raised that because the numbers coming
in it's been consistent now for least a year. The
big numbers each time is India, Philippines and China. Now
does that matter if the skills are okay.

Speaker 2 (01:08):
No, it doesn't matter. I think we need to do
more mic in terms of preparing them for New Zealand.
So we should do what Canada does, which is to say,
you know, Mike Costing is going to migrate to New Zealand.
What does he need once he gets here in terms
of making sure he's got the skill set. One of
the things that migrants don't have are networks and local knowledge,

(01:30):
and we need to make sure that they've got that.
So I don't mind whether it's the government that does that,
or whether it's the sector, or whether it's the employer,
but somebody needs to do that so that we they've
got skills. We need those skills, and we need to
make sure that we're grabbing those skills with both hands
and utilizing it as much as we can.

Speaker 1 (01:49):
Andrew kellerher our money man, says he doesn't think we'll
get there, but I worry about being an ex net
exporter of people. In other words, number of people coming
into the country is slowing, the number of people leaving
is slowing, but not as much. In other words, we're
getting closer and closer to zero. Is that an issue
or not?

Speaker 2 (02:04):
Well, I don't think it is. I noticed some of
the bank economists are saying it is, but I don't
personally think it is. Mike. But the thing that I
noticed in these later stats is that we have, for
a twelve month period, had the largest number of people
migrating off shore. And I've got two questions. And of

(02:25):
course we don't have departure cards, so we only know
the numbers, the age, and where they're going to. We
don't know about their skills. But are we losing skilled
people there? Nicest You and I both know the answer
to that. And then are we also seeing unskilled and
semi skilled people leaving and going perhaps to Australia and
therefore we're exporting part of our unemployment rate. So I

(02:47):
think there's some big economic questions which we need to
ask and answer. And I think the Minister, I mean
the Minister's signal that this year she's going to make
some changes and they're all in the pipeline, but you know,
we do need that make a picture really very well.

Speaker 1 (03:01):
Suit Paul as l Wich Professor Pal Spomey Messing Universities.

Speaker 2 (03:05):
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