The details of President Donald Trump's phone conversations with his Ukrainian and Russian counterparts remain relatively shrouded.
Trump's sought a full end to hostilities between the two sides but appears to have settled for a limited ceasefire and further discussion for now.
All three parties say the calls have gone well, but there are discrepancies in their reporting.
Chatham House UK Russia expert Keir Giles told Ryan Bridge the read-out on Trump's call with Vladimir Putin is like two completely separate conversations.
He says neither of them is a particularly reliable source at the moment, but it's clear they're treating this in two different ways.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
We are talking war. In the last forty eight hours,
we had the news of Russia agreeing to a partial
cease fire. Basically they said we won't attack any energy infrastructure,
and then within hours we had Russia launching drone strikes
on said energy infrastructure and two hospitals. Now Trump and
Zelensky have spoken this morning. We're two from here. Kirk
(00:22):
Giles is a senior expert on Russia at Britain's prestigious
Chatham House and he's with me. Now, good morning, Hello,
good morning. So what do we know about this Trump
and Zelensky call.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Well, the problem is we don't know very much about
what has really been discussed in any of these calls.
You've got this shuttle diplomacy, these three way phone calls,
and you get readouts from them that are very different
depending on who you're listening to. Even Trump's and Putin's call.
If you read what to the White House is saying
in English and what the Kremlin is saying in Russian,
it's as though it was about two totally separate conversations.
(00:53):
And of course, bearing in mind, neither of those is
a particularly reliable source at the moment, but it's plain
that tree this in two different ways. And then on
top of that, you've got whatever Trump has briefed to
Zelenski or demanded from him in this most recent conversation.
So all of this is really happening behind closed doors,
and we can only really guess what has been agreed
from what is visible on the outside. There doesn't seem
(01:16):
to have been an agreement on even a partial ceasefire
that a lot of media seem to have assumed is
the case after that first White House readout saying that yes,
this has been agreed, and that's partly because of course
it's given Russia an opportunity, as everybody expected it would,
to demand more in order to stop the war. So
the real question is how much is the United States
(01:37):
going to give Russia this time.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
And how Why isn't Trump playing hardball with potent like
he did with Zelenski.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
Well, that's a consistent pattern. This is a ceasefire into
which Ukraine has been coerced and Russia has been invited.
But that goes along with Trump policy all the way,
not just to this time around, but also in his
first term in office. At every possible opportunity, he gives
Russia what it wants, even if it's to the detriment
of the United States's own interest. So that is not
the surprising part. Trump's often called unpredictable, But this is
(02:08):
the one thing in which he has been absolutely rock
solid and predictable all the way through. Do you know
that he's on Russia side?
Speaker 1 (02:15):
Why do you think he's doing that? Is that because
they trying to You know, they've got a bigger beast
to time in China. They can't be at war and
hating everyone. They want a resumption of tires with Russia,
try and pull them away from China. What's the play here.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
Well, that's often been put forward by trumpists as the
three D chess explanation for what's going on, some kind
of broader strategy that's to do with turning towards China,
But of course that's not backed up by any of
the actions that the Trump Musk administration are actually taking,
because they're knocking away the foundations of US power, not
just facing Europe, but also facing elsewhere as well. If
(02:51):
they wanted to be strong towards China, they wouldn't be
immobilizing Department of Defense, they wouldn't be cutting back on
the military they wouldn't be cutting back on the United
States soft power like usaid, Voice of America, all of
the ways that Russia can reach around the world and
try to frustrate powers like Russia and China. So it
just doesn't stack up, and it resembles far more simply
(03:12):
curtailing the United States as means of exerting national interest
supporting national interests both at home and abroad.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
So let's talk about the Europeans and how they respond
to all of this. We've had, for those who are
just joining us, a call overnight between Trump and Zelensky.
We're not entirely sure what was said in the call
just yet, but the so called deal between Putin and
Trump over Ukraine hasn't held because already there've been attacks
on infrastructure and on two hospitals. So what does Europe
(03:40):
make of all of this here and what happens I
suppose to the idea of peace when even Trump, who's
you know, as you've said, kind of settled himself closely
to Putin, can't get a deal out of him.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Well, he's not trying to get a deal out of him,
except in the sense that he's trying to impose whatever
Russia wants on Ukraine, and of course that is what
Europeans are especially worried about, particularly, of course, those are
the frontline states of Russia, because they look at what
has been done to Ukraine, they know that they could
be next, and they know that the United States, which
formerly was the underpinning of NATO or the backbone of
(04:16):
this alliance that's supposed to keep them safe, has actually
flipped to the other side. So they're scrambling to look
for any way that they can salvage. The situation which
you've got going on across Europe is inventorization of all
of the military power, the military capacity that European states
can bring that isn't dependent on US support. And it
turns out in some cases that's not a lot, because
(04:37):
everybody's assumed perfectly reasonably that they're going to be on
the same side as the Americans in the future. Plus,
of course, around the world, you've also got other countries
looking at this, the way that Ukraine has been thrown
under the bus, and thinking, well, this could be us next.
If we were reliant previously on the United States for
our security, if we looked at them as a friend
and an ally and a partner that was always going
(04:58):
to back us up. We need to in mind that
if we come under attack, the United States might just
see that as an opportunity to opportunity to extort from
US something in the same way that they have Ukraine.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
Yeah, interestingly, Japan has moved some of its long range
missiles for exactly that reason. Just a little worried, a
little shaky on American support. So what happens now? I mean,
how does this end in Europe? If Putin is saying, oh,
you know, never accept any European troops basically in Ukraine
to help with the peacekeeping or to hold peace in place,
(05:33):
and then you've got the Europeans saying, that's what we're
willing to offer. We will do this to make it work.
They obviously want to have a buffer between each other.
How does this end?
Speaker 2 (05:42):
Well, Europe is trying to put together what it's calling
a coalition of the willing to actually provide for some
kind of lasting peace in Ukraine as opposed to this
sticking plaster ceasefire that Trump seems to want to impose
on it while waiting for Russia's conditions of surrender to
be imposed. But of course that's on two conditions that
are in the moment are nonsensical. All of the descriptions
that we've had of how European troops might arrive in
(06:06):
Ukraine to maintain some kind of lasting piece are on
two conditions. First of all, US support and secondly Russian acquiescence.
Russian has to agree to them being there, while the
United States has already ruled out support. They say that's
not going to happen, and Russia is never going to
agree to it because the whole point of them being
there is to frustrate Russia and prevent it from invading further.
So at the moment, the conversation, at least as it's
(06:28):
happening in the public domain, is a little bit nonsensical.
Now tomorrow, our time, already today, your time with there
is going to be a meeting of military chiefs from
across Europe who are supposed to be so called operationalizing
this idea, probably putting their heads together and seeing just
what exactly they can deliver in terms of military power
to meet this political task that has been set. I
(06:49):
doubt very much will hear anything specific about what comes
out of that meeting, but there could be some hard
truths about just what is actually possible if the United
States isn't playing along.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
And how quickly that can all happen too. I guess
it's quite key, Kier. Thank you very much for your
time this morning. Really appreciate your analysis. K Charles, senior
expert on Russia at Britain's Prestigiou Chathamhouse with us this morning.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
news talks it'd be from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
We are talking war. In the last forty eight hours,
we had the news of Russia agreeing to a partial
cease fire. Basically they said we won't attack any energy infrastructure,
and then within hours we had Russia launching drone strikes
on said energy infrastructure and two hospitals. Now Trump and
Zelensky have spoken this morning. We're two from here. Kirk
(00:22):
Giles is a senior expert on Russia at Britain's prestigious
Chatham House and he's with me. Now, good morning, Hello,
good morning. So what do we know about this Trump
and Zelensky call.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Well, the problem is we don't know very much about
what has really been discussed in any of these calls.
You've got this shuttle diplomacy, these three way phone calls,
and you get readouts from them that are very different
depending on who you're listening to. Even Trump's and Putin's call.
If you read what to the White House is saying
in English and what the Kremlin is saying in Russian,
it's as though it was about two totally separate conversations.
(00:53):
And of course, bearing in mind, neither of those is
a particularly reliable source at the moment, but it's plain
that tree this in two different ways. And then on
top of that, you've got whatever Trump has briefed to
Zelenski or demanded from him in this most recent conversation.
So all of this is really happening behind closed doors,
and we can only really guess what has been agreed
from what is visible on the outside. There doesn't seem
(01:16):
to have been an agreement on even a partial ceasefire
that a lot of media seem to have assumed is
the case after that first White House readout saying that yes,
this has been agreed, and that's partly because of course
it's given Russia an opportunity, as everybody expected it would,
to demand more in order to stop the war. So
the real question is how much is the United States
(01:37):
going to give Russia this time.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
And how Why isn't Trump playing hardball with potent like
he did with Zelenski.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
Well, that's a consistent pattern. This is a ceasefire into
which Ukraine has been coerced and Russia has been invited.
But that goes along with Trump policy all the way,
not just to this time around, but also in his
first term in office. At every possible opportunity, he gives
Russia what it wants, even if it's to the detriment
of the United States's own interest. So that is not
the surprising part. Trump's often called unpredictable, But this is
(02:08):
the one thing in which he has been absolutely rock
solid and predictable all the way through. Do you know
that he's on Russia side?
Speaker 1 (02:15):
Why do you think he's doing that? Is that because
they trying to You know, they've got a bigger beast
to time in China. They can't be at war and
hating everyone. They want a resumption of tires with Russia,
try and pull them away from China. What's the play here.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
Well, that's often been put forward by trumpists as the
three D chess explanation for what's going on, some kind
of broader strategy that's to do with turning towards China,
But of course that's not backed up by any of
the actions that the Trump Musk administration are actually taking,
because they're knocking away the foundations of US power, not
just facing Europe, but also facing elsewhere as well. If
(02:51):
they wanted to be strong towards China, they wouldn't be
immobilizing Department of Defense, they wouldn't be cutting back on
the military they wouldn't be cutting back on the United
States soft power like usaid, Voice of America, all of
the ways that Russia can reach around the world and
try to frustrate powers like Russia and China. So it
just doesn't stack up, and it resembles far more simply
(03:12):
curtailing the United States as means of exerting national interest
supporting national interests both at home and abroad.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
So let's talk about the Europeans and how they respond
to all of this. We've had, for those who are
just joining us, a call overnight between Trump and Zelensky.
We're not entirely sure what was said in the call
just yet, but the so called deal between Putin and
Trump over Ukraine hasn't held because already there've been attacks
on infrastructure and on two hospitals. So what does Europe
(03:40):
make of all of this here and what happens I
suppose to the idea of peace when even Trump, who's
you know, as you've said, kind of settled himself closely
to Putin, can't get a deal out of him.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Well, he's not trying to get a deal out of him,
except in the sense that he's trying to impose whatever
Russia wants on Ukraine, and of course that is what
Europeans are especially worried about, particularly, of course, those are
the frontline states of Russia, because they look at what
has been done to Ukraine, they know that they could
be next, and they know that the United States, which
formerly was the underpinning of NATO or the backbone of
(04:16):
this alliance that's supposed to keep them safe, has actually
flipped to the other side. So they're scrambling to look
for any way that they can salvage. The situation which
you've got going on across Europe is inventorization of all
of the military power, the military capacity that European states
can bring that isn't dependent on US support. And it
turns out in some cases that's not a lot, because
(04:37):
everybody's assumed perfectly reasonably that they're going to be on
the same side as the Americans in the future. Plus,
of course, around the world, you've also got other countries
looking at this, the way that Ukraine has been thrown
under the bus, and thinking, well, this could be us next.
If we were reliant previously on the United States for
our security, if we looked at them as a friend
and an ally and a partner that was always going
(04:58):
to back us up. We need to in mind that
if we come under attack, the United States might just
see that as an opportunity to opportunity to extort from
US something in the same way that they have Ukraine.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
Yeah, interestingly, Japan has moved some of its long range
missiles for exactly that reason. Just a little worried, a
little shaky on American support. So what happens now? I mean,
how does this end in Europe? If Putin is saying, oh,
you know, never accept any European troops basically in Ukraine
to help with the peacekeeping or to hold peace in place,
(05:33):
and then you've got the Europeans saying, that's what we're
willing to offer. We will do this to make it work.
They obviously want to have a buffer between each other.
How does this end?
Speaker 2 (05:42):
Well, Europe is trying to put together what it's calling
a coalition of the willing to actually provide for some
kind of lasting peace in Ukraine as opposed to this
sticking plaster ceasefire that Trump seems to want to impose
on it while waiting for Russia's conditions of surrender to
be imposed. But of course that's on two conditions that
are in the moment are nonsensical. All of the descriptions
that we've had of how European troops might arrive in
(06:06):
Ukraine to maintain some kind of lasting piece are on
two conditions. First of all, US support and secondly Russian acquiescence.
Russian has to agree to them being there, while the
United States has already ruled out support. They say that's
not going to happen, and Russia is never going to
agree to it because the whole point of them being
there is to frustrate Russia and prevent it from invading further.
So at the moment, the conversation, at least as it's
(06:28):
happening in the public domain, is a little bit nonsensical.
Now tomorrow, our time, already today, your time with there
is going to be a meeting of military chiefs from
across Europe who are supposed to be so called operationalizing
this idea, probably putting their heads together and seeing just
what exactly they can deliver in terms of military power
to meet this political task that has been set. I
(06:49):
doubt very much will hear anything specific about what comes
out of that meeting, but there could be some hard
truths about just what is actually possible if the United
States isn't playing along.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
And how quickly that can all happen too. I guess
it's quite key, Kier. Thank you very much for your
time this morning. Really appreciate your analysis. K Charles, senior
expert on Russia at Britain's Prestigiou Chathamhouse with us this morning.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
news talks it'd be from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
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