Alan McDonald: EMA Head of Advocacy on employment confidence falling

Employment confidence has bottomed out. 

The Westpac-McDermott Miller index shows it's slipped to a level not seen since the post-2020 Covid lockdowns. 

It's fallen in four of 11 regions —including Auckland— which dominated the national average. 

EMA Head of Advocacy Alan McDonald told Mike Hosking business is still doing it hard, directly impacting the ability to hire and expand. 

He says more than 60% of firms let staff go within the last year. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
As various parts of the economy sparked life, the old
employment side of the equation, as we mentioned with Andrew earlier,
is still to feel upbeat. Confidence levels at their lowest
levels since September of twenty twenty. It all comes from
the west Pac mcderm at Miller survey show's job availability
remained soft, but it's not all bad. EMA's head of Advocacy,
Finance and Strategy, Allan McDonald back with us Ellen Morning, Morning, Mine.

(00:21):
So I read in the report that it's going to peak.
They think at five unemployment this is peak at five
point three percent. We're almost there. So can I say
the worst is almost behind us? Are about to be,
I hope.

Speaker 2 (00:32):
So we're a little surprised in February where the inquiries
to our advice line around redundancies and restructures actually pop
back up to new record levels. Now we're kind of
hopeful that just that December January period where people have
gone away and had a good look at things and
made the tough calls, but some of the numbers heading
in the right direction, that a lot of our members

(00:54):
again well just been out on the road still doing
it really hard. So just that lack of confidence still
in act, hiring and expanding and all those good things
that we need to get going.

Speaker 1 (01:03):
And are they literally doing it hard or are they
just telling you they're doing it hard, because I always
worry about surveys that talk about perception.

Speaker 2 (01:10):
No, I think they are literally doing it hard. I
think about sixty more than sixty percent of firms actually
degre staff in the last year, and that's always a
tough decision. Some sectors are popping up quite well. You know,
our exports sector, particularly around the primary industry, is doing
pretty well, and some of our smart tech innovators are

(01:31):
getting strong orders. But other other areas, the usual suspects,
you know, tourism, hospo, construction still a bit flat. Manufacturers
had a really rough patch as well. Finally on the turn,
but their higher expectations and maybe later in the year
rather than sooner.

Speaker 1 (01:46):
Yeah, man, manufacturers back in positive. Services is back in
the negative. Do you see those broad sense that by
the end of the year we're going to be okay ish.

Speaker 2 (01:56):
That's what the indicators are telling us, and that's what
some of the confidence surveys are telling us as well.
They're saying, look not so good now, but maybe six
to twelve months. I think you've got a huge proportion
of mortgages coming off short term fixed terms in the
next six to twelve months. When that money starts to
flow into pockets, because consumer confidence is all over the
place as well, When that money starts to flow into pockets,

(02:17):
I think that's when you'll see some real confidence movement
in those some of those numbers and finally turn the corner.
But it's a it's a super tanker turn, it's not
a jet boat turn.

Speaker 1 (02:27):
Good stuff, all right, must catch up with Allen Allen
McDonald or you mahead a bit because you finance some strategy.

Speaker 2 (02:33):
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