Mike's Minute: Fascinating polling results out of Australia and Canada

Polls are funny things at the best of times, and despite plenty of evidence that they can be as wrong as they can be right, we still seem fascinated, if not obsessed, by them. 

There are two races at the moment being heavily polled: Australia and Canada. Canada votes this Monday, Australia in a couple of weeks. 

Canada is more interesting, if for no other reason than the incumbents were losing by so far it wasn’t funny, but are now leading. 

The PM quit and the new bloke, Carney —who once ran the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England— is now chasing the top job. 

On the surface, that change of leadership might have played a part in voters' minds – Trudeau was past his used-by date in a Jacinda Ardern “loved then hated” kind of way. More likely, south of the border, Trump got elected, tariffs became an issue, and Carney looks like the person who can better stand up to America. 

Polling out yesterday says the Conservatives are closing as people refocus on local issues like housing and cost of living, but the gap is still 12 points. Which is an amazing swing given the gap was 20 points the other way until tariffs stole the headlines. 

Meantime, in Australia it’s gone from a race where the incumbent would be lucky to survive, far less thrive. Where a hung parliament was probable, requiring any number of accommodations with Greens and Teals and Independents, given a minority was the best Albanese could hope for, to what increasingly looks like an easy romp home with a majority. 

Marginal seat polling out yesterday shows Labor with a 3.5% swing in the past week. Another poll had 45% of voters saying they didn’t like Dutton’s personality, therefore wouldn’t vote for him. 

Competence, cost of living, that apparently doesn’t count. You look at him, you don’t like him, he’s toast. 

It hardly seems a sophisticated way to decide the future of your nation, but then that’s democracy, isn’t it? 

One argument says Albo should win —first term governments don’t lose— haven’t since the 30s. 

But Canada, if the polls are right, that would be a victory from the ashes. What happens in another country is so profound: the party that was getting thrashed has their fortunes completely reversed. That’s one for the history books. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Tell you what. Polls are funny things at the best
of times, and despite plenty of evidence that they can
be as wrong as they can be right, we still
seem fascinated, if not obsessed, by them. There are a
couple of races at the moment being heavily polled, Australia
and Canada. Canada votes this Monday Australia in a couple
of weeks. Canada's way more interesting for no other reason
than the incumbents were losing by so far it wasn't funny,

(00:21):
but are now leading. The PM quit and the new
bloke Karney, who once ran the Bank of Canada and
the Bank of England, is now chasing the top job.
On the surface, that change of leadership by itself might
have played a part in voter's minds. Trudeau was passed
as used by Dayton, Jacinda Adern loved them, hated them
kind of way more likely south of the border, Trump

(00:41):
got elected. Tariffs became an issue when Carne looks like
the person who can better stand up to America. Polling
up yesterday says the Conservatives are closing as people refocus
on local issues like housing and cost of living, but
the gap is still twelve points, which is amazing, an
amazing swing given the gap was twenty points the other
way until the tariff stole the headlines. Meantime, in Australia,

(01:02):
it's gone from a race where the incumbent would be
lucky to survive, far less thrive, where a hung parliament
was probable, requiring any number of accommodations with the Greens
and the Teals, and the independence given a minority was
the best that Albaneze could hope for, to what increasingly
looks like an easy romp home with a majority marginal seat.
Polling also out yesterday shows Labor with a three and

(01:22):
a half percent swing in the past week. Another pole
at forty five percent of voters saying they didn't like
Dutton's personality therefore they wouldn't vote. From competence, cost of living,
that apparently doesn't count. You look at him, you don't
like him. His taste hardly seems a sophisticated way to
decide the future of your nation. But then that's democracy,
isn't it. One argument says Elbow should win, of course,

(01:43):
because first term governments don't lose happened since the thirties.
But Canada tell you what if the Poles are right,
that would be a victory from the ashes. What happens
in another country, I e. America is so profound. The
party that was getting thrashed has their fortunes completely reversed.
That's one history books. For more from The Mic Asking Breakfast,

(02:03):
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