Sharon Zollner: ANZ Chief Economist on the unemployment rate likely hitting its highest point since 2016

An observation the recession hasn't been felt evenly. 

Stats NZ data out this morning could show unemployment has hit its highest point since 2016 during the March quarter – reaching around 5.2%. 

ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner told Mike Hosking she expects it will have bigger impacts on different age groups and communities. 

She says young people as well as Māori and Pacific communities have always been on a bigger rollercoaster when it comes to the labour market. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Job numbers out today, Big brains are suggesting the unemployment
rate will be five point two five point three. Does
it really matter? A and Z Chief Economists Sharon zolms
back will the Sharon, very good morning to you.

Speaker 2 (00:09):
Good morning mate.

Speaker 1 (00:10):
My big question is five point two five point three
is this? It has it peaked?

Speaker 2 (00:16):
That's our forecast. That's a pretty common forecast that this
is probably about it, which is historically a relatively low
peak in the unemployment rate, if you can go back
to say the early nineteen nineties. Of course that's cold
comfort for the people who are caught up in it,
but given the depth of the recession that we had
last year, there was always going to be to the

(00:38):
labor market, and it does tend to come with quite
a lag. So, given the economy is now recovering, albeit
not not rapidly, this should be around the peak.

Speaker 1 (00:48):
Okay, any sense of how it tails off for the
rest of the year and the so called recovery picking
up in the latter part of twenty five.

Speaker 2 (00:57):
Yeah, So in our latest forecast revisions, we did actually
side that unemployment will hold up at that peak for
just a bit longer, because we've just taken a bit
of growth out of our forecast. So that's partly because
some of the data's been looking a little sluggish, but
partly also because we're assuming there will be a bit
of a confidence impact from this global stuff that seems
to have settled down now. I don't think anyone would
say it's over, and certainly our latest business outlooks surve

(01:18):
they did so this there has been a confidence impact.
The question is just how long lasting that will be.

Speaker 1 (01:23):
Is it variable when you look at the numbers, will
dive into the numbers regionally and age wise, in other words,
there's a lot of young people in the usual parts
of the country.

Speaker 2 (01:33):
Yeah, definitely. The data is based on a survey, so
it can get pretty volatile when you go down to
the regional level. But certainly age wise, it's always be
the case that young people maldi people Pacific Islanders, they're
just on a bigger rollercoaster. When it comes to the
labor market, well, they have higher average unemployments but also
much much bigger swings as well. So it's certainly true

(01:56):
that recessions are not felt remotely.

Speaker 1 (01:58):
Evenly, they are not Sharon appreciate it as almost Sharon
Zola aims at Chief Economists coverage throughout the day, of course,
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