Andrew Geddis: Otago University Law Expert on the Tamaki Makaurau by-election in the wake of Takutai Tarsh Kemp's death

A lot of interest is expected in the by-election to fill the seat left empty by the death of Takutai Tarsh Kemp. 

The 50-year-old Te Pāti Māori MP died yesterday. 

Otago University law expert Andrew Geddis told Mike Hosking the Tamaki Makaurau seat was won by just 42 votes in 2023 and will be very tightly contested again. 

The complicating factor this time is likely to be sympathy, he says, suspecting that Te Pāti Māori will likely run strongly on a kind of legacy argument.  

The by-election could clash with local body elections. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So with the death of takatitash KEMP, we face a
by election. Of course, given she was an electorate MP,
you will remember it was a tight and still contentious
fight that she won up for a recount by forty
two votes over Labours Penny Henna roy a Tiger University
lawd Professor Andrew Geedis is back with the Andrew very
good morning to you.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
Yeah, good morning, mikee.

Speaker 1 (00:17):
The mechanics of the Parliament as a result of an
electorate versus a list MP dying, does it change it
all between now in the vote?

Speaker 2 (00:29):
No? Well, I mean it means it's one less MP
until the by election is held, so we're down to
one twenty two MP's instead of one twenty three. But
that's really the only change in terms of the way
parliament will work.

Speaker 1 (00:41):
And theoretical question I know. But nevertheless, if the electorate
had been a government electorate and they needed the vote,
what would happen.

Speaker 2 (00:50):
This is one of the really interesting questions with our
MMP system. What it would mean is you would have
had a tied parliament that the government would have been
able to live, but it wouldn't have had a majority
until the by election and of course, if it lost
the by election and that being changed the majority in parliament,
you would have a government that would no longer be

(01:10):
able to govern exactly.

Speaker 1 (01:11):
So in this case, none of that happens. But what
we do have is an ongoing investigation into a situation.
Do you think that'll drive interest in the by election
as a by election?

Speaker 2 (01:20):
I think the by election itself is going to generate
the interest. We're probably going to see a fairly strong
fight between Labor and to Patti mari over this, especially
if Penne Henry does stand for Labor. He's got such
a high profile two clashing ideas about how Marigam should
go forward, you know, whether within Labor and kind of

(01:40):
within the system or a direct challenge to the system
through to Patty Mariy. The only interesting thing with that
being held in Auckland is, of course we've got the
local elections coming up with October, so these two things
are going to run into each other a week bit,
so you're going to see Aucklanders with a lot of
election you're in gooing on exactly.

Speaker 1 (01:56):
Having said all of that, does the controvery social nature
and the forty two votes play in and what happens
if the report, which is the Serious Fraud Office, comes
back in the ensuing period with something dramatic.

Speaker 2 (02:14):
Well, of course, you know, with political you never quite
know what's going to happen. But yeah, certainly, if the
Serious Fraught Office did start to bring charges against people,
especially anyone involved into Patti Mari, that will enter into
the electoral calculus. We do know the fact that it
was only forty two votes means that you know it's
going to be a very tight run thing. The other
complicating factor, or a different factor this time, of course,

(02:36):
is going to be the sympathy factor. I suspect Party
Mari will run very strongly in a kind of legacy argument,
you know, let's honor the cdmp's name by you know,
we're placing her with a Patty Mari person. So all
of those things go into the politic of it all.

Speaker 1 (02:51):
Great inside, Andrew, you have a good week. I appreciate
it as always, Andrew get As at Tiger University law professor.
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