Matthew Schmidt: New Haven University International Affairs Expert on the meeting between Trump and Putin

Donald Trump estimates his high-stakes diplomatic talks with Russia's Vladimir Putin have a 25% chance of failure. 

The two presidents will meet in Alaska tomorrow to discuss an end to the war in Ukraine.  

Trump's previewed the summit as setting the table for a second meeting, inviting in Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky.  

New Haven University international affairs expert Matthew Schmidt told Mike Hosking public opinion in Ukraine is strong, on a need to stop the bleeding.  

But he says they're not willing to give away everything or be humiliated to get there, so Trump will have to navigate that.  

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So tomorrow our time, a week or so is worth
of hype plays out in Alaska, Trump and Putin in
a room, Does the war end? Does anything actually happen?
Here is the expectation. I'm going to let them negotiate
their deal. I'm not going to negotiate the deal. I'm
going to let them negotiate their deal. So we're going
to be calling President Zelensky if it's a good meeting.
If it's a bad meeting, I'm not calling anybody. I'm

(00:20):
going home. Matthew Schmid is the director of the International
Affairs Program at the University of New Haven. Beck with Us. Matthew,
good morning to you.

Speaker 2 (00:27):
Good morning.

Speaker 1 (00:28):
Short of an agreement to meet again, are you hopeful
that anything more tangible than that comes out of us? Yeah.

Speaker 2 (00:35):
Look, there's a lot of movement in Ukrainian public opinion
right now to really find some way to stop the bleeding.
But they're not willing to give away everything in order
to get there, and they're not willing to be humiliated
for it. And so if Trump can navigate that pathway,
then there's something here.

Speaker 1 (00:55):
Okay, So do you see Putin and Zelensky in a
room within the next month.

Speaker 2 (01:01):
I think it's possible. I'll be like Trump, I'll say
I don't know. Twenty five percent chance it's possible. I wouldn't.
That's moving pretty quick yet.

Speaker 1 (01:09):
Okay, the giving up land thing, I just don't see
how Ukraine does that end save Spice. Is that possible?

Speaker 2 (01:19):
So there's two ways to look at this. Ukraine has
said for a while now that they would be willing
to accede to the facts on the ground, you know,
more or less. They don't want to give Russia the
whole province if it hasn't taken the whole province and
that sort of thing, But they do not want to
give up legal claim to the territory, particularly Crimea. So

(01:39):
they want to hold on to the idea that years
down the road they can say this is still Ukrainian territory.
Was taken from US, and it's de facto been in
Russian territory for ten years or twenty years, but legally
it still ours and they want to maintain that position.
Russia wants to break them of it.

Speaker 1 (01:55):
Okay, is that a win for Russia that unfolds that white.

Speaker 2 (02:01):
It is a win for Russia if they can hold
on to the territory right, because you know, possession is
ninety percent of the law.

Speaker 1 (02:09):
Right. So having said that, when the inside that happens,
where does Europe stand, because that's the narrative that will
he's not stopping there and he's coming out Why is
that real?

Speaker 2 (02:20):
Well, first of all, Mertz has said specifically he's back
to Ukraine on this that Ukraine's not going to give
up legal claim to this territory, so that, you know,
seems to be Europe's position overall. And then of course
Europe has been gearing up now for a year two
years now for you know, the next phase of this,
right for World War four if it were, and it's
all based on Russia's threat to the EU. You've got

(02:41):
the European Defense Fund which was just passed. There's real
money now, hundreds of billions of dollars that are being
allocated and in the process of being spent in order
to essentially create a European defense force, you know, with
or without NATO, all aimed at Russia.

Speaker 1 (02:56):
What I found sort of interesting, Matthew is that he
was at the Kennedy sent to Trump yesterday and he
was outlining he said five but I think it's six
the wars he solved. Is he suddenly beck as a globalist?
So I thought he was a lot isolationless. What's he doing?

Speaker 2 (03:12):
Indeed, that's the question, what is he doing? He's a
he's a trumpist, which is a globalist when he wants
to be in an isolationist when it matters to him
right when it's the best position he's in. This he
really does want to stop the war. He really is
uncomfortable with wars, with killing with violence. I think if
you look at his history and his past comments, but

(03:33):
he wants credit more than he wants anything else. He's
not interested in a stable, long term, just negotiation that
leads to a just and stable long term piece. He
just wants to stop it now so he can get credit.

Speaker 1 (03:45):
I wonder, yeah, I wonder if he wants a Nobill
If he gets Russia and Ukraine stopped, does that Nobel
Prize territory?

Speaker 2 (03:52):
I think it has to be considered.

Speaker 1 (03:54):
Absolutely nice to talk to you as always, Matthew Smid,
who's out of the New Haven University with us this morning.

Speaker 2 (04:00):
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