Kate Acland: Beef + Lamb Chair on the declining sheep numbers, impact of carbon forestry

There’s little sign of recovery soon for the country's sheep numbers as they continue to drop. 

Beef + Lamb NZ shows breeding ewe numbers are down nearly 2% on last year, with this season's lamb crop forecast to be down nearly 120 thousand lambs. 

However, beef cattle numbers are showing positive signs, rising 4%. 

Beef + Lamb NZ Chair Kate Acland told Mike Hosking the lower numbers are driven by the continued afforestation in big traditional sheep areas like Southland. 

She says sheep prices are phenomenally good at the moment, and if we weren’t seeing pressure from carbon forestry, the rebuilding would be much stronger. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
You've got the annual Beef and Lamb stock number survey.

(00:02):
This is for the year ending June. A lot of
debate and interest these days, as we were talking about
just yesterday on the program, stock numbers, export opportunities. Sheep
numbers fell one percent, cattle up four point four it's
the old tree v Animal debate. Of course. Kate Eckland
is the Beef and Lamb New Zealand chair and is back.
What there's Kate morning to you the sheep side. But
one percent is that either here there is that deliberate

(00:22):
or just you know how nature, you know plays it look.

Speaker 2 (00:26):
To be honest to me, it's more than we were expecting.
And I think what we've seen as one of those
drought stricken areas from last year, you know, the top
of the North Island, top of the South Island was
particularly barely accepted by drought. So we've seen a bit
of a rebuild in those areas because numbers are really strong.
But you know, worryingly, the breeding new numbers are down
by almost two percent, and that's on top of some

(00:48):
really chunky declines over the last few years.

Speaker 1 (00:51):
So what's driving that is that the economy is it exports.
Is it trees? What is it?

Speaker 2 (00:56):
It's absolutely trees. So it continued forestation in some of
those big traditional sheep areas like Southland and like sort
of Lower North Island has really driven move out of sheep.
And it's a real problem because sheep prices are phenomenally
good at the moment, and I think if we didn't
see that pressure from carbon forestry, we would be seeing

(01:19):
a much stronger rebuild.

Speaker 1 (01:21):
Right, So, how then do you explain the increase in
cattle at four point four of trees are the problem?

Speaker 2 (01:28):
Well, some of the areas, particularly east coast of the
North Island that were really weather affected, had some very
very chunky drops in the last couple of years, you know,
up with the ten descent. So it's just that rebuild
that we were talking about, which is a really positive
thing for the sector. So you know, on the whole,
it's a mixed bag, not terrible, but not entirely positive,
particularly on the sheep side.

Speaker 1 (01:49):
Pleased to hear what you said about sheep because beef
gets all the headlines at the moment with burgers in
America and all that sort of things. So lamb is
still good.

Speaker 2 (01:58):
Lamb is really good. The moment, but you know, acknowledge
it's been a challenging couple of years in the sheep game.
But at the moment, and you know, the outlook for
the next year or two is really good.

Speaker 1 (02:09):
And also dairy gets the headlines obviously a lot these days.
If you're a beef farmer or a sheep farmer, are
you as bullish as the dairy operator.

Speaker 2 (02:18):
Look, things are pretty positive at the moment, yep. And
I think most of New Zealand is not just a
beef farmer or a sheep farmer. The two go really
well together. So you know, beef stales get the international headlines,
but sheep is right up there with it.

Speaker 1 (02:33):
See, we had fit farmers on there yesterday. And I
can't work it out if I own a farm and
somebody offers me money for that land and they're going
to plant some trees versus do some sheep. You know,
who is anybody to tell me what to do with
my place?

Speaker 2 (02:46):
No? I mean it is a real challenge property rights.
But we need to think about the long term what
we want and what's best for New Zealand. And what's
happening at the moment is easy use settings are just
driving this sort of incentives to plant trees, but it's
not actually a great outcome for New Zealand.

Speaker 1 (03:04):
No, your view of what the government is doing is
what in the ets space.

Speaker 2 (03:10):
So the changes they've come up with, you know, we
support the intent of what they're trying to do, which
is to put some limits around carbon farming, but we
don't think it's going to go far enough. Unfortunately, we
think we'll still continue to see up to a million
hectares plants of good sheep and beef land by twenty fifty.

Speaker 1 (03:30):
Are they hearing you, do you think? Or are they
settled in their view?

Speaker 2 (03:38):
Look, we're trying to continue to engage, but at this
point I think they do seem fairly fixed that what
they've proposed for solve problem. And you know, look to
be very clear, this is not about forestry. Forestry is
a really important exporter in a for New Zealand, but
carbon forestry different recepts. Absolutely, So we can't double exports

(04:01):
if we plan't do all of our good sheep and
beef far land and trees.

Speaker 1 (04:04):
All Right, it's a fascinating debat. Okay, I appreciate Ekla Kateklan,
who's the beef in Lamb, New Zealand.

Speaker 2 (04:09):
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