Paul Spoonley: Massey University Sociologist on net migration falling to 10,600 for August

An expert believes there's still a number of Kiwis returning to New Zealand, despite a falling net migration rate. 

It's fallen to 10,600 for the year to August 2025. 

Overall, Stats NZ figures show migrant arrivals dropped 16% to more than 138 thousand, while departures increased 13% to just under 128 thousand. 

Massey University sociologist Paul Spoonley told Mike Hosking it's still a major net loss, but Kiwis are coming back, even from Australia. 

He says there's always been Kiwis leaving and returning on the traditional OE. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Another wake up call for New Zealand in because these

(00:02):
latest net migration figures show, yes, the population is still growing,
but barely ten thousand, six hundred in the year to
August forty seven, nine hundred has left the country. Paul
Spoonley's the emeritus professor, a Messi University of sociologist.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Back with It's Paul Morning, Good morning, Mike.

Speaker 1 (00:16):
The net zero question. I always ask you when you're
on this program, do you reckon we'll be a net
exporter of people? What do you reckon now?

Speaker 2 (00:23):
I reckon we will be. When I last came on
your show, Mike, which is five or six months ago,
I thought we'd bottomed out. We haven't bottomed out at all,
and we're heading towards net losses a net migration game.
I think we lasted it during the global financial crisis
twenty eleven twenty twelve, it went down to minus ten

(00:45):
thousand overall net loss and we're certainly hitting in that
direction again.

Speaker 1 (00:50):
What worries you more the number of people leaving, all
the lack of people arriving.

Speaker 2 (00:55):
The people leaving at the moment people don't arrive during
an economic downturn. When we look back again, at the
global financial crisis, New Zealand wasn't an attractive place for migrants,
so the numbers drop. As soon as we came out,
numbers went up again, and they went up significantly. So
I'm anticipating that when we get out those numbers will

(01:18):
go up again. But the numbers leaving, there are two
bits to that. One is that the numbers are very high,
they're the highest we've ever seen it in our history,
and the net loss. But we're also seeing a growing
number of people who are New Zealand citizens but not
born here her leaving, so we're not retaining immigrants.

Speaker 1 (01:44):
Well do we hit? I know, I mean, what do
you say? I mean? Is everyone just just to put
a bluntly pissed off with New Zealand and they can't
wait to get out of the place.

Speaker 2 (01:54):
Well, I think that's the push thing that the labrimarkets
soft unemployments as high. The talk is not very positive,
so it's partly perception. Then what's happening in Australia. Australia
is doing well and it's attracting particularly our young people,
increasingly our thirty something so people have been in our

(02:14):
labor market and then out going and they're just being
much more competitive around superannuation, the salary, all sorts ofs
and pieces that go on, and of course they've women
will actively recruiting here and offering relocation packages. So it's
a mixture really of what's happening on shore and the

(02:36):
despondency and the feeling that we're just not providing jobs,
but also then what we see right across the Tasman's
of women shining example and really a strong attraction.

Speaker 1 (02:49):
Is it permanent once you land in Australia and you
plug into their super and you get your job, are
you done and you're never coming back? Or is it
just one of those things that there is a certain
group of people who will move where the good times are.

Speaker 2 (03:02):
Yep, both of those. I think that we've seen people
always leave New Zealand and come back the traditional oe
and even in these figures you can see a lot
of New Zealanders coming back, including from Australia. It's still
a major net loss, but they're still coming back. Interesting
that worries me because that the numbers are growing, and
the numbers are growing over the other side of the

(03:24):
Tasman and so you're getting Grandmum and granddad thinking, well, look,
the adult kids, the grandkids are all the other side
of the Tasman. What's keeping me here in New Zealand.
So we're beginning to see different dynamics in the migration.
When we've got what we call the center of gravity
somewhere else, in this case in Australia, then it is

(03:45):
an incentive for the rest of the family to go
across there, and of course the guys across the other
side of the Tasman. And so look I'm getting I'm
getting thirty forty thousand dollars more more a year than
you are, my employers playing twelve percent superuation. Come on,
join us, come and come over with us. And so

(04:05):
we're getting that pull across the Tasman in ways that
we wouldn't have seen in the past. So there's all
always be chunned. But I do think we're entering a
slightly different era.

Speaker 1 (04:15):
Good on you Pool. Always enjoy the insight, even if
it's negative. Paul Spoonly, the emeritus professor and Massa University sociologist.
The settings seem right. It's not like we're not out
in the world saying come on in the Golden visa
seems to be working to it agree, but the numbers
just don't add up at the moment.

Speaker 2 (04:29):
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