Henry Olsen: US Pollster on Zohran Mamdani's landslide victory in the New York City Mayoral Election
November 5, 2025 • 7 mins
The pressure is on Zohran Mamdani following his landslide victory in New York City's mayoral election.
The 34-year-old democratic socialist has become the city's youngest mayor and first South Asian and Muslim mayor.
US pollster Henry Olsen says Mamdani may not be the answer to issues facing the Democratic Party.
He told Mike Hosking everything depends on how Mamdani acts when he takes office.
He says if Mamdani pushes an ideological agenda, that could be a problem for the Democrats as a whole.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
America was voting yesterday. It turned out pretty much as expected,
givenatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. Went to the
dams New York Gottman Army.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Throughout this campaign, I've worked hard to be accessible and
transparent with New Yorkers. That same spirit will animate this
transition and the city Hall we built because New Yorkers
deserve a government that they can trust.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Prop fifty got up in California. Pennsylvania Supreme Court cemented
the five to two Democratic majority. So what's Trump think
of it? All?
Speaker 3 (00:28):
This shutdown was a big factor negative for the Republicans. Yeah,
that was a big factor. And they say that I
wasn't in the bat it was the biggest factor. I
don't know about that, but I was.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
They said that, Yeah, I don't know that anyway, Polster
Henry Elsen's back with us, Henry, morning.
Speaker 4 (00:45):
To you, after our morning to you.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
What do we read into it? I mean, the results
came in pretty much as they were expected to come in.
So did it tell us anything?
Speaker 4 (00:55):
I think it did tell us something because while the
victors weren't surprising, the margin were that no poll had
the Democrat winning New Jersey's governor race. By thirteen points.
The democratic margin in Virginia was much larger than expected,
and it carried down down ballot that lots of Republican
legislatures legislators lost their seats as well. So I think
(01:17):
what it shows is that there is a wish that
Donald Trump would spend more time on domestic issues and
that they were hoping that the economy would get better
and if Trump can pay attention to that, perhaps next
year will be better for the GOP.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
Lot of chat about the polls. Were the polls a problem?
Did the polls misread it?
Speaker 4 (01:38):
I think the polls will misread it. I think that
there was a problem in the United States is trying
to figure out who's going to vote in lower turnout
elections as opposed to presidential elections, and a lot of
the problems in the polls were because they misunderstood how
many Democrats would come out to vote. The fact is
the electorate was much more democratic than the poll had expected,
(02:00):
and that was a big reason why they underestimated democratic
victoric margin.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
I also heard reported saying that historically speaking, when the
government has closed down, especially in a place like Virginia,
when the government has closed down, it is always blamed
on the Republicans, rightly or wrongly. Is that true?
Speaker 4 (02:19):
It usually is blamed on the Republicans because they're viewed
as the anti government party. Polling had shown before the
last week or so that it was much less so
this time, but I think it's hard to avoid that conclusion.
One of the things that happened in the last week
before elections is people were talking about the shutdown affecting
forty two million people who get food benefits from the
(02:40):
United States. People were having their airplanes disrupted because there
weren't enough air traffic controllers to put them up in
the sky, and it meant that it was beginning to
affect real people in their real lives, not just an
abstract thing. And that always hurts the party that doesn't
like the government as much.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
What do the Democrats do about Munda? I mean, shouldn't
Schumer and no one loved him? Is he trouble or
is he the nonsense to the Democrats problem?
Speaker 4 (03:07):
He's probably not the answer to the Democrats problem. That
the people who led the landslides and more moderate states
are more moderate Democrats. He won a very democratic city
with barely a majority of the vote. It's really a
question of how he's going to govern. If he governs
as a pragmatic left leaning politician, he'll be less of
(03:27):
a problem. If he comes out of the box and
is somebody who seems to be grabbing for more than
he ought to be getting, pushing to ideological agenda, that
could be a real problem, but real depends on what
Mom Donnie does once he takes office.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
The prop thing Prop fifty in California, we've seen taxas
and things. Is just America going to rewrite itself silly
between now and twenty six.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
Unfortunately, a number of states will. We've got more states
that are trying to redistrict Virginia. The Democrats are trying
to do that to offset some of what's going on
in these states. So I think or at least three,
maybe as many as ten more states will redraw their lines.
And it is crazy. We haven't had this happen in
well over one hundred years.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Yeah, they said the economy played upot. I can't get
a read on the economy, Henry. I mean I read
a lot about what they talk about the K shape.
In other words, if you've got big jobs and big money,
you're laughing. If you haven't your own food stamps. You
got trouble. What's the state of the American economy in
people's minds and how does that affect the abug.
Speaker 4 (04:30):
I think for people in the lower third, they the
data show that they have still not recovered their standard
of living that they had before President Biden took office.
I think they expected a return to the fast increases
in real wages that they had in Trump. They're not
getting it, and I think they're frustrated. For the middle
it's a worrying time. You're generally secure, you're keeping ahead
(04:51):
with inflation, but you're not really gaining very much. So
I think for the economy, it's not bad for most people,
but it's not good for most people either. And it's
that luke warmness when people thought Trump would be better
that is disappointing them.
Speaker 1 (05:04):
Alan if you were a Republican strategist sitting here right
now this November morning, would you be freaking out about
twenty six or not? Right now?
Speaker 4 (05:14):
A freaking out is too strong of a word, But
the fact is they got slapped upside the head. The
president's job approval rating nationally is at forty four percent.
That's too low to have any chance of folding the house.
Regardless of how many lines you redraw. What you've got
to do is make some mid course adjustments. This is
like halftime at a rugby match or a football game.
(05:35):
A good coach figures out if they're team's behind, whether
they have to do different, and you've gone in the
second half. Plenty of times we've seen games of two
completely different halves. Could very well be that twenty six
is different from twenty five. If it's not, they're going
to depend on Democratic screw ups to help them, And
I'm not sure it's a good idea to expect your
enemy to go.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
I watched it. I watched Kevin you some speech. Is
he good for twenty eight? And if he is, does
he play well?
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Wait?
Speaker 4 (06:01):
Gavin Newsom is very quickly becoming the favorite for the Democrat.
I think he is playing his party very well. But
the fact is he will have a California to defend.
The California that is high tax, high regulation, often places
high crime. And he is culturally to the left of Americans,
and stylistically he's very smooth on TV, but he's not
(06:23):
the sort of person who dresses, talks, and acts the
way a family making fifty five thousand dollars a year
in a small town does. And that's the swing voter
in a lot of these states, so to be seen.
But he's definitely the Democratic front runner.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
Now, I don't know whether you I mean, I'm sure
you're interested in doing what you view? Is this scouts
thing today? The Supreme Court and the tariffs. Has that
got the potential to blow up in the Trump administration's
vice or not?
Speaker 4 (06:48):
Well? I have always expected that the Supreme Court would
rule the tariffs to be an unconstitutional exercise of power.
To me, the question is if they don't do that,
I'll be shocked if there would be a constitutional sea
chain in the way American government works. And then the
question is how does Trump respond? And he could very
well below the response.
Speaker 1 (07:06):
All right, nice to talk to Henry. Always a pleasure,
Henry Alsome American Pulse does. For more from the mic
asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks. It'd be from
six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
America was voting yesterday. It turned out pretty much as expected,
givenatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. Went to the
dams New York Gottman Army.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Throughout this campaign, I've worked hard to be accessible and
transparent with New Yorkers. That same spirit will animate this
transition and the city Hall we built because New Yorkers
deserve a government that they can trust.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Prop fifty got up in California. Pennsylvania Supreme Court cemented
the five to two Democratic majority. So what's Trump think
of it? All?
Speaker 3 (00:28):
This shutdown was a big factor negative for the Republicans. Yeah,
that was a big factor. And they say that I
wasn't in the bat it was the biggest factor. I
don't know about that, but I was.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
They said that, Yeah, I don't know that anyway, Polster
Henry Elsen's back with us, Henry, morning.
Speaker 4 (00:45):
To you, after our morning to you.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
What do we read into it? I mean, the results
came in pretty much as they were expected to come in.
So did it tell us anything?
Speaker 4 (00:55):
I think it did tell us something because while the
victors weren't surprising, the margin were that no poll had
the Democrat winning New Jersey's governor race. By thirteen points.
The democratic margin in Virginia was much larger than expected,
and it carried down down ballot that lots of Republican
legislatures legislators lost their seats as well. So I think
(01:17):
what it shows is that there is a wish that
Donald Trump would spend more time on domestic issues and
that they were hoping that the economy would get better
and if Trump can pay attention to that, perhaps next
year will be better for the GOP.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
Lot of chat about the polls. Were the polls a problem?
Did the polls misread it?
Speaker 4 (01:38):
I think the polls will misread it. I think that
there was a problem in the United States is trying
to figure out who's going to vote in lower turnout
elections as opposed to presidential elections, and a lot of
the problems in the polls were because they misunderstood how
many Democrats would come out to vote. The fact is
the electorate was much more democratic than the poll had expected,
(02:00):
and that was a big reason why they underestimated democratic
victoric margin.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
I also heard reported saying that historically speaking, when the
government has closed down, especially in a place like Virginia,
when the government has closed down, it is always blamed
on the Republicans, rightly or wrongly. Is that true?
Speaker 4 (02:19):
It usually is blamed on the Republicans because they're viewed
as the anti government party. Polling had shown before the
last week or so that it was much less so
this time, but I think it's hard to avoid that conclusion.
One of the things that happened in the last week
before elections is people were talking about the shutdown affecting
forty two million people who get food benefits from the
(02:40):
United States. People were having their airplanes disrupted because there
weren't enough air traffic controllers to put them up in
the sky, and it meant that it was beginning to
affect real people in their real lives, not just an
abstract thing. And that always hurts the party that doesn't
like the government as much.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
What do the Democrats do about Munda? I mean, shouldn't
Schumer and no one loved him? Is he trouble or
is he the nonsense to the Democrats problem?
Speaker 4 (03:07):
He's probably not the answer to the Democrats problem. That
the people who led the landslides and more moderate states
are more moderate Democrats. He won a very democratic city
with barely a majority of the vote. It's really a
question of how he's going to govern. If he governs
as a pragmatic left leaning politician, he'll be less of
(03:27):
a problem. If he comes out of the box and
is somebody who seems to be grabbing for more than
he ought to be getting, pushing to ideological agenda, that
could be a real problem, but real depends on what
Mom Donnie does once he takes office.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
The prop thing Prop fifty in California, we've seen taxas
and things. Is just America going to rewrite itself silly
between now and twenty six.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
Unfortunately, a number of states will. We've got more states
that are trying to redistrict Virginia. The Democrats are trying
to do that to offset some of what's going on
in these states. So I think or at least three,
maybe as many as ten more states will redraw their lines.
And it is crazy. We haven't had this happen in
well over one hundred years.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Yeah, they said the economy played upot. I can't get
a read on the economy, Henry. I mean I read
a lot about what they talk about the K shape.
In other words, if you've got big jobs and big money,
you're laughing. If you haven't your own food stamps. You
got trouble. What's the state of the American economy in
people's minds and how does that affect the abug.
Speaker 4 (04:30):
I think for people in the lower third, they the
data show that they have still not recovered their standard
of living that they had before President Biden took office.
I think they expected a return to the fast increases
in real wages that they had in Trump. They're not
getting it, and I think they're frustrated. For the middle
it's a worrying time. You're generally secure, you're keeping ahead
(04:51):
with inflation, but you're not really gaining very much. So
I think for the economy, it's not bad for most people,
but it's not good for most people either. And it's
that luke warmness when people thought Trump would be better
that is disappointing them.
Speaker 1 (05:04):
Alan if you were a Republican strategist sitting here right
now this November morning, would you be freaking out about
twenty six or not? Right now?
Speaker 4 (05:14):
A freaking out is too strong of a word, But
the fact is they got slapped upside the head. The
president's job approval rating nationally is at forty four percent.
That's too low to have any chance of folding the house.
Regardless of how many lines you redraw. What you've got
to do is make some mid course adjustments. This is
like halftime at a rugby match or a football game.
(05:35):
A good coach figures out if they're team's behind, whether
they have to do different, and you've gone in the
second half. Plenty of times we've seen games of two
completely different halves. Could very well be that twenty six
is different from twenty five. If it's not, they're going
to depend on Democratic screw ups to help them, And
I'm not sure it's a good idea to expect your
enemy to go.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
I watched it. I watched Kevin you some speech. Is
he good for twenty eight? And if he is, does
he play well?
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Wait?
Speaker 4 (06:01):
Gavin Newsom is very quickly becoming the favorite for the Democrat.
I think he is playing his party very well. But
the fact is he will have a California to defend.
The California that is high tax, high regulation, often places
high crime. And he is culturally to the left of Americans,
and stylistically he's very smooth on TV, but he's not
(06:23):
the sort of person who dresses, talks, and acts the
way a family making fifty five thousand dollars a year
in a small town does. And that's the swing voter
in a lot of these states, so to be seen.
But he's definitely the Democratic front runner.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
Now, I don't know whether you I mean, I'm sure
you're interested in doing what you view? Is this scouts
thing today? The Supreme Court and the tariffs. Has that
got the potential to blow up in the Trump administration's
vice or not?
Speaker 4 (06:48):
Well? I have always expected that the Supreme Court would
rule the tariffs to be an unconstitutional exercise of power.
To me, the question is if they don't do that,
I'll be shocked if there would be a constitutional sea
chain in the way American government works. And then the
question is how does Trump respond? And he could very
well below the response.
Speaker 1 (07:06):
All right, nice to talk to Henry. Always a pleasure,
Henry Alsome American Pulse does. For more from the mic
asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks. It'd be from
six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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