Full Show Podcast: 17 July 2024

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Pressing the newswakers to get the real story.

Speaker 2 (00:04):
It's Jack Dame on hither due to see Ellen drive
with one New Zealand.

Speaker 1 (00:09):
Let's get connected. A new Stork said.

Speaker 3 (00:11):
B GL to New Zealand, good afternoon, Well, welcome to Newstalks.
He'd be Jack Dame in the hot seat for Heather.
So imagine this. Imagine you come out of a lovely
restaurant in the evening. Someone rushes by, grabs your bag,
your wallet, your credit cards. They rush off into the night.
There's a police officer standing by. You say, officer, officer,

(00:33):
please do something. The criminal jumps into a car speeds off.
The officer looks at you somewhat sheepishly and says do
you have your full license? And say what do you mean?
The officer says, I'm just on my restricted and it's
after ten pm. Can you believe this? The New Zealand

(00:55):
Police are opening up applications for new officers to people
who only have their restrict did driver's license speaks to
how desperate they are to try and fill the ranks
at the moment they reckon it'll open them up to
another two hundred and fifty thousand people who couldn't apply.
But we're going to be speaking with police after five
this evening, as well as that the Greens have released
the executive summary and to Darlene Tanner and her report,

(01:17):
so we'll bring in some of the details on that
very shortly. Right now it is eight minutes past four.

Speaker 1 (01:22):
Team.

Speaker 3 (01:23):
If there is any silver lining, any silver lining of
the last couple of years, it is surely that everyone
is now a monetary policy expert. That the top line
figure from today's consumer price Index I think will come
as a big relief to most of us. Three point
three percent is tantalizingly close to the Reserve banks target band.

(01:48):
But I got to say, I still feel pretty anxious
about the tradeables non tradeables division. Five point four percent
for non tradables. That's effectively five point four percent for
domestic inflationary forces as opposed to international forces. And five
point four percent, you have to say, is still very high.

(02:09):
The Reserve Bank finds itself in a tricky position now.
I mean, the government has been incredibly blunt about forcing
the RBNZ to focus ruthlessly, single mindedly on inflation. Scrapping
the dual mandate was the very first thing they did
as a government, And you would have to say, economic
vibes are probably about as bad right now as they

(02:32):
have been in my adult lifetime, maybe even as they
have been this century. These are grim times, and most
of the big banks think that cuts are coming. Most
of them now have adjusted their forecasts. They're expecting the
first cuts to the OCR in November, maybe even fifty
basis points this year. But look, I gotta say, I

(02:53):
feel like I have come I have become too accustomed
to bad news on theation front to get too excited
just yet, because here's the thing, five point four percent
on those non tradables. If we don't see a good
improvement on that non tradable figure come October and the

(03:13):
next CPI data, With the uncertainty of the US election
and the US presidency, it is surely not inconceivable that
Adrian All would say, Hey, you wanted us to conquer inflation.
You wanted us to be bloody minded when it comes
to inflation. We are going to make damn sure that

(03:34):
thing is dead before we make any cuts. So are
cuts coming in November? I might bet my mortgage on it,
but I wouldn't yet bet the house team ninety two
is our text number. We're going to take a look
at that with the Finance Minister. She's going to be

(03:54):
with us right after five o'clock this evening. Break down
that tradable non tradable division. There has been some improvement
on the non tradable figure core inflation down as well,
but still a couple of things that might be making
the more pessimistic economists a little bit anxious. So we'll
bring you that very shortly right now though it is
eleven minutes past four and news talks. He'd be and
we've got some numbers out regarding the youth offender boot camps.

(04:17):
The auding atomaticy run pilot program could cost one hundred
thousand dollars for every teenager in the program. The twelvemonth program,
we'll see one on one mentoring for each teenager alongside travel,
food education. Their residential phase is going to give the
youth time for counseling, physical activity, and guest speakers will

(04:38):
appear before them so they can assist with their community transition.
David Graham is the CEO of the Billy Graham Youth
Foundation and is with us this afternoon. Hi, David, Jack
one hundred thousand dollars feels very expensive. Indeed, do you reckon
the cost is too steep?

Speaker 4 (04:56):
I'm probably not.

Speaker 5 (04:56):
Too sure about that. I think that if you look
down stream and you see what it costs to keep
one of these, you know, at the stage young men
in a white air facility, and what it costs down
and maindustice. If we can get in front of us
now at it costs one hundred k. Probably not too
worried about that. As long as we can we can
get it right.

Speaker 3 (05:17):
You've seen a bit more detail in the plan as
to how these book camps are going to work a
bit more detail about what these guys are going to
be up to on a day to day basis. So
do you have confidence that this could actually work?

Speaker 5 (05:31):
Look, we've been engaging this the last twelve months and
what we're really happy about is the positive shift from
what was campaigned on. So going from a twelve month
residential piece down to three months, that allows us time
to focus on what was always going to be the hardest,
most complex bit, which is the transition. So you're happy,

(05:53):
really happy to see that. A couple of points what
we need to be making sure of is that the
young people we're talking about these ten young men between
fourteen and seventeen, eighteen years of age, but they are
choosing to engage with the mentors that are put in
front of them. Now there's no slight on the mentors,
but the factor is that we're talking about, you know,

(06:15):
from the ten hardest case young people in the country.

Speaker 6 (06:18):
They have low trust for adults and if you look.

Speaker 5 (06:21):
At their backgrounds, that's a good reason. So we need
to make all the relationship between the young person and
that mentor is you know, at least not initially, but
pretty soon on have been driven by the young person.
And the second thing that would say is that the
task is that has put out this morning for these mentors,

(06:44):
if it's by themselves, it really is an impossible feat.
If the job is a mental to fix one of
these you know, one of these ten hardest case young
people to come through within twelve months, that's.

Speaker 6 (06:54):
Not going to happen.

Speaker 5 (06:55):
So what it requires is once that young person has
transitioning into the community, for community leaders to wrap up
this young person right.

Speaker 7 (07:05):
And it's the most thing.

Speaker 5 (07:07):
You know, they're there in this position in the first
place because of you know, these these climes have gone
down against the community. But this is where the rother
meets the road. We need to have good relationships between
young person and mentor, and the community has got to
wrap up these young people once they're re engaged.

Speaker 3 (07:24):
Well, it's the re engaging bit that's vital right now.
And you know, when you go through the relatively sparse
research into the previous iterations of boot camps, one message
that keep coming through from all of the official advice
is that boot camp's are one thing, but actually it's
the support when these young people re into the community
that is way, way, way more important.

Speaker 4 (07:47):
That's right.

Speaker 5 (07:47):
What we saw from from the reviews is that after
eighteen months, that's when we start to say that reoffending occur.
And so what that tells us is that these young
people actually need to be handheld for a greater period
than the twelve months. And so if we're going to
fund a mentor or a frontline provider to engage over

(08:08):
those twelve months, it has to carry on past that.
Let's just acknowledge how difficult it is to do what
we're talking about. You know, we're talking about these ten
young men and you look at where they've come from.
They are the greatest victims in the country to begin with,
and then that sets them up, you know, for what
they've gone on to, how they've gone on to offend.

Speaker 6 (08:30):
And so if we.

Speaker 5 (08:31):
Can set up a good relationship between a mentor and
these young people, and then second phase, these communities wrap
them up, let's keep pumping support them to that because
that was just that's a profound thing if we can
pull that off.

Speaker 3 (08:44):
Yeah, Hey, thanks for your tome really appreciate. David Graham there,
who is the chief executive of the Billy Graham Youth Foundation,
thanks for your text as well.

Speaker 4 (08:52):
Jack.

Speaker 3 (08:52):
Does the domestic inflation take into account increased immigration numbers,
which would obviously increase spending, says John. This divide's economists
because of increasing immigration also increases supply, so you've got
more people doing work as well as more people buying things,
and economists are divided about the impact that it has. Jack,
isn't it fair to say that anything that happens, be

(09:13):
it good or bad, and the first year of a
brand new government is down to the previous government, Like
I think everyone's going to be trying to protect good
take credit for lower inflation numbers. Three point three percent
has certainly an improvement on where it has been over
the last couple of years. It was last at four
percent for the last CPI update, and this government is
certainly saying that their policies have helped to bring it down,
but will put that point to the Finance Minister when

(09:34):
she joins us after five ninety two ninety two. If
you want to flick us a text. Right now, it's
sixteen past four.

Speaker 2 (09:41):
Digging deeper into the day's headlines, it's hither duper c
Allen Drive with one New Zealand one giant leap for
business use doorgs.

Speaker 3 (09:50):
He'd be news talks, he'd be nineteen minutes past four,
made agains made State against State Game three State of Origin.
Tonight's sports talk host Elliot Smith is or where US
Blues or the Reds? Who's up?

Speaker 8 (10:01):
I think I'm going the Red side. Moron's obviously got
a text from a colleague who's in Brisbane who says,
absolutely feral. At the moment, it's already what we yea
hang on, it doesn't take off in six hours away. Still, yeah,
this place is completely Nart's Game three one. All the
whole city is feral. They've sold out of Queensland, Jerseys
and the whole city other than kid sizes. So it's

(10:21):
all set for a decider. And to be honest, I
don't think the series has been that great to this
point years. We're heading to a decider tonight, but there
is nice to have a decide, it is right, but
both games have been blowouts on each side so far,
so look, let's have a close contest tonight. Lives up
to the expectation absolutely because I guess Origin needs it.
It probably doesn't hold the same hold that maybe it

(10:42):
had ten, fifteen, twenty years ago, but it's still cactivating,
I think so. I think maybe this is a personal view,
but I think, yeah, perhaps to compared to my interesting
was ten years ago, not quite there. And I think
it's because a lot of the Kiwi players are actually
you know, world class and then not obviously playing Origin,
so you take them out and yeah, it's gonna be
good tonight.

Speaker 3 (11:02):
Though, that'd be great, Yeah, especially in Queensland. My goodness.
The White Ferns summer schedule is through so New Zealand
Cricket has announced six inbound tours.

Speaker 8 (11:11):
Across the Black black Caps as well, so forty one
potential days of international cricket, which isn't too bad. We
already knew the Test dates. They've got three against England
which are really for me the standout, and there are
before christmasfore Christmas here it starts late November, so three
across Wellington, christ chich Hamilton and then we get into
a lot of white bull cricket for the rest of
the same. In fact, there's normal tests after that, so
it's all Test cricket before Christmas and then we're into

(11:32):
the white bull format. I guess for the black Caps
it's about rebuilding after that T twenty World Cup horror
show where they didn't get out of their group and
a little bit of rebuild with came Williamson stepping away
from the captain c So they're gonna have Sri Lanka
just after Christmas and then over to Pakistan for the
champions Trophy back again, and Pakistan's back here, so the

(11:52):
White fans have Sri Lanka and Australia to welcome to
these shores as well. So look, look, always a good
day when the schedule comes out. Little just trying to
figure out one because the weather's better than here. But
so just you know, looking at the international summer and
hopefully getting to a game.

Speaker 3 (12:07):
Yeah, three now, very good. And Gareth Southgate has announced
he's going to stand down as England's football manager.

Speaker 8 (12:12):
Yeah, it's interesting to see where his legacy will sort
of lie because they're famously not won anything since nineteen
sixty six. But he's the manager that has gotten closer
than ever before two European Championship finals ultimately didn't win
either of them this year and four years ago, so
he's got them closer, but he hasn't quite got them
to the pomis Land. And for English football fans that's

(12:33):
still obviously not good enough. And there's been criticism about
his style and the way that they play. Under Garrith Southgate,
they got some great players, you know, Phil Foden jubelling
him at the moment, some generational players that maybe just
aren't being unleashed in the way that you'd want them
to an international level. So he's going to step aside.
Someone's going to step in. We don't know who is yet,
but yeah, he's waving goodbye.

Speaker 3 (12:54):
Very good. Hey, thank you, sir. Jack Elliott Smith with
US on Sports Talk tonight's seven o'clock on News Talk
to b right now is twenty two minutes past four.

Speaker 2 (13:03):
The name you trust to get the answers you need,
Jack tame On, Heather Duplicy, Alan drive with one New
Zealand let's get connected.

Speaker 3 (13:10):
The news talk instead be twenty five minutes past four
on news talks. It'd be fair to say there hasn't
been a whole lot of detail so far from the
government about how these so called boot camps are going
to be working. But reporting from Marin Zet has unearthed
some documents that have put forward a rough schedule, a
sort of average day's schedule for the young people who
are going to be in these camps once they kick

(13:31):
off next month. I'm just going to read you some
of the things. Right, So eight fifteen am. You have
education employment pathways. You have a morning tea break from
nine to forty five till ten, and you have an
hour and a half of physical activity from twelve thirty
until two thirty. You have fuck up Upper cultural connection

(13:51):
far No. Two forty five. In the afternoon, you have
counseling or life skills six fifteen ps. Get this daily
wellness activities. I'm not saying that these are actually necessarily
bad things, but I just wonder if there's a branding
issue with all of this. We've been calling them boot camps.
The government has effectively been calling them boot camps when

(14:13):
they were campaigning on these But when you think about
some of those activities, it doesn't sound that boot campy.

Speaker 5 (14:18):
Right.

Speaker 3 (14:18):
There's nothing, at the very least in these documents that
says there's going to be a drill sergeant yelling at
grubs to get their noses? How does it start at
eight am? Shouldn't it be like five am? It's six
thirty six thirty? Is to wake up? Well, yes, lights
out at nine thirty six, so but you're an hour
for the wake up in the morning routine.

Speaker 9 (14:34):
So I don't know, step are in the face at
six thirty and then run around the campus.

Speaker 3 (14:39):
Yeah, it probably depends on how these how the schedule
is enforced, and are we going to go with what
slipper camp? Yeah? Yeah, yeah, yeah yeah yeah. Maybe a
bit of a bit of a rebrand is on the cards.
Thanks for your text, Jack, Prison costs US a lot
more than one hundred thousand dollars per person. I mean,
this is a really good point. I actually, at first
I thought one hundred thousand dollars per person on the
boot Camp program. While that's a lot money, and I thought, actually,

(15:02):
you know what, if that's the difference between someone going
on to a lifetime of offending, well, one hundred thousand
dollars is an absolute steal right because putting them in
prison or having them in contact with the state would
cost us much much more over time. Anyway, more, your
feedback very shortly. Ninety two ninety two is the text
number if you want to get in touch. It's almost

(15:22):
four thirty. Jack Tame in for Heather to Percy Allen.
This is News Talk ZEDB.

Speaker 2 (15:28):
On your smart speaker, on the iHeart app, and in
your car on your drive home, it's Jacktame on Heather
Dupleice Ellen drive with one New Zealand. Let's get connected
and New Talk zed B.

Speaker 3 (15:55):
New Stalk zb you with Jack Tame After five o'clock
we're going to ask why Tenacious D really canceled their
New Zealand concerts. So this is Jack Black's band. He's
been performing as part of a duo for years now.
To be honest, I thought their music was cool when
I was about seventeen for about three months, and then

(16:15):
I thought you know what nah. Anyway, Jack Back's Jack
Black's bandmate made an extremely ill advised joke about Donald
Trump's attempted assassination, and look, it was a dumb joke.
It was a tasteless joke. But in response, Jack Black
called off the tour and said he's suspending any plans

(16:36):
for creative endeavors as a duo in the future for
the time being. So we're going to ask if that
was a bit of an overreaction after five o'clock this evening.
Right now, it is twenty four minutes to five, it's the.

Speaker 1 (16:47):
World wires on news Dogs.

Speaker 3 (16:49):
He'd be drive and two of the candidates who lost
to Donald Trump and the presidential primaries have spoken at
the Republican National Congress in Milwaukee today or the convention. Nicki,
who spent months refusing to throw in the towel, now
says Donald Trump has his strong endorsement.

Speaker 10 (17:06):
We should acknowledge that there are some Americans who don't
agree with Donald Trump one hundred percent of the time.

Speaker 3 (17:14):
I happen to know some of them.

Speaker 11 (17:16):
I haven't always agreed with President Trump.

Speaker 9 (17:20):
But we agree more often than we disagree.

Speaker 3 (17:24):
And Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is back on the Trump
bandwagon too.

Speaker 2 (17:30):
Left.

Speaker 12 (17:30):
Send Joe Biden back to his basement, and left, send
Donald Trump back to the White House.

Speaker 6 (17:38):
Yes.

Speaker 3 (17:38):
On the other side of the political isle, US President
Joe Biden has called for a ban on assault weapons.
He says the assassination attempt on Donald Trump proves that
such a ban is needed now. If he was used
to shooting Donald Trump, just it was I saw whether
to kill so togethers, including children.

Speaker 1 (17:57):
It's time to outlaw them.

Speaker 6 (18:00):
I did it once and I will do it again.

Speaker 3 (18:05):
And finally, West Virginia Governor Jim Justice, what a name?
Has brought out the big guns at the Republican National Convention.

Speaker 1 (18:12):
I know that a lot of you want to meet
my little buddy.

Speaker 4 (18:16):
So if baby.

Speaker 11 (18:18):
Dog could come on out here.

Speaker 3 (18:20):
Yeah, that's Jim's pet English bulldog, Baby Dog Justice. It
was brought on stage during his speech, and presumably to
ensure that his speech would be all over the internet
all day, Jim gave baby Dog a cute little hat
to wear as well as.

Speaker 1 (18:37):
The world of watchers.

Speaker 11 (18:40):
You didn't really expect that, did you.

Speaker 3 (18:43):
That is going to be a tough act to follow,
even for Donald Trump.

Speaker 2 (18:47):
International correspondence with ins and Eye Insurance Peace of Mind
for New Zealand.

Speaker 3 (18:52):
Business in US correspondent Dan Mitchenson is with US this
evening killed a Dan.

Speaker 11 (18:57):
Hey Jack.

Speaker 3 (18:58):
So let's start off with news out of the US
today that Iran had apparently been plotting to kill Donald Trump,
and concerns over that plot prompted the Secret Service to
boost his protection.

Speaker 10 (19:10):
Yeah, this has really been interesting that it started with
a report from CNN that they they being authorities over
here in the US, got this intelligence briefing from a
source and they had this for a number of weeks apparently,
And so, as you mentioned, the Secret Service boosted their
security around the president. As for the shooter, though whose

(19:32):
name we know, know, Thomas Matthew Crooks, there's no trail
that has led the Secret Service to think that he
was connected to the plot.

Speaker 11 (19:39):
That being said, all.

Speaker 10 (19:41):
This information that we're still getting right now doesn't answer
the questions about the security lapse at that rally in Pennsylvania.
How Crooks managed to access that rooftop that was just
a few hundred yards away that you know, was able
to launch the shot that injured former President Trump.

Speaker 3 (19:55):
You know, it is actually amazing how little information has
come out about his background and his motive over the
last couple of days, don't you think. I mean, I
mean everyone immediately said, you know, this is political violence,
and I think there was a general assumption that the
assassin or attempted assassin might have been an opponent of

(20:15):
Donald Trump's But really, we actually have nothing to base that.

Speaker 2 (20:18):
On at the moment.

Speaker 11 (20:19):
No, no, we don't.

Speaker 10 (20:20):
I think we're so used to getting information so quickly,
especially with a digital footprint, as they like to say
that everybody leaves behind these days, but we really don't.
Just like, we're not getting much information right now on
this threat from Iran. I mean they're saying, you know,
we don't comment on the president's security detail. All the
questions should be directed to the US Secret Service. And

(20:40):
then as for the shooter. When this first happened, they
said it could be weeks, months or even longer before
we learn a lot about this twenty year old And
right now we know very little about him except that
he was registered as a Republican and that he had
given just a few dollars two Democrats in the past.

Speaker 3 (20:58):
Yeah, it sort of seems as likely anything that this
was just a really troubled young man looking to make
a splash, rather than anything that was explicitly politically motivated,
which might distinguish him from some other assassination attempts in
the past. That being said, though, Dan just to be
totally clear that there is no suggestion from the reports
or the authorities at this stage that the attempt at

(21:19):
assassination was linked to Iran.

Speaker 11 (21:23):
No, no, not not at this point.

Speaker 10 (21:25):
This is just just early early days, as they like
to say, this is just intelligence that they're kind of
leaking out to the press, I think, but there is
there is not a name that's associated with this that's not,
you know, one group or is it the country as
a whole. I mean, this could this could be disproved
just as easily as it was released to the press

(21:46):
this time tomorrow.

Speaker 11 (21:47):
But we you know, and that's a frustrating thing.

Speaker 10 (21:49):
You get a little teasted of something and you want
to know more information because everybody's curious about it.

Speaker 3 (21:54):
And now Dan singer ingrid Andres was performing at Major
League Baseball's home run derby last night and she was
doing the national anthem. As we know, the stars and
stripes is star spangled banner is a very difficult anthem
to sing, a whole lot more difficult than New Zealand's version.
I think you have to traverse one and a half octaves.

(22:14):
But she did not do a good job. Let's have
a quick listen. I don't think we want to play

(22:40):
that too much. Dan, we'll have no listeners left. But
actually there is an explanation, and truthfully it's a sad explanation.

Speaker 6 (22:46):
It is.

Speaker 10 (22:47):
It is because the first thing when you woke up
today was, apart from next to the VP choice by
Donald Trump and the aftermath of this weekend shooting was this.
And I mean everybody started making joke about it and
comparing it to rose Anne Barr, who sung the national
anthem and was booed when you did that for the.

Speaker 11 (23:05):
Podres years ago.

Speaker 10 (23:06):
But then we learned that she's been battling a problem,
and she said that on social media. She said, I'm
checking myself into a facility today to gel the help
that I needed.

Speaker 11 (23:15):
She said, I was drunk. This was not meal last night.

Speaker 10 (23:19):
I apologized to Major League Baseball and the fans and
the country that I love so much for this.

Speaker 11 (23:25):
Rendition. Excuse me.

Speaker 10 (23:26):
And she's the daut of a former Major League strengthen
and coordinating coach who worked for the Tigers and the
Rockies and a few other teams. And in all fairness,
like you said, that song is challenging even at the
best of times by the best of singers. And when
you've had too much to drink, I mean, you don't
even want to go there.

Speaker 3 (23:44):
Yeah, yeah, you really don't. I don't want to go there.
One I haven't drink. It's actually really interesting if you watch,
you know, international sporting games, you watch the anthem being performed.
Often unlike other countries, you see people not singing. They've
just got the hand over their heart. And there's good
reason for that. Hey, Donald Trump assassination teamed meme reabilia
has hit eBay Dan.

Speaker 10 (24:04):
Yeah, and this is something you really wish that people
wouldn't do. But you're finding all these kind of things
popping up a newspaper front page, ads, wristbands that were
used by people who were there, aerial shots of the
land that you saw on a lot of the networks
as soon as this happened, t shirts and mugs and
wal art featuring the moment that mister Trump raised his fist,

(24:25):
and people are making some money off this.

Speaker 11 (24:28):
I mean, there was one guy that talked to.

Speaker 10 (24:29):
Newsweek over here and he said, I decided to auction
a lot of the memorabilia that I had because I
want the money to go for a family vacation.

Speaker 11 (24:38):
And this is a thirty eight year old guy.

Speaker 10 (24:40):
And a lot of the sellers are saying, hey, I'm
really pleased with the price of the items that I'm
getting on here. And this is a piece of history,
and you know, I have every right to sell it online,
and it's it's a curiosity factor, I guess.

Speaker 3 (24:52):
Yeah, yeah, Hei. Thank you so much, Dan, I appreciate
your time as if a US correspondent. Dan Mitchinson, thanks
for your feedback as well, jax Is Stan Did I
did I that right? Today?

Speaker 4 (25:01):
Dan?

Speaker 3 (25:02):
Right? The Iranian threats to assassinate Donald Trump led to
increased security. I mean, for goodness sake, that has to
be the single best piece of gas lighting today. Donald
Trump was left wide open for a twenty year old
to take pot shots at YEP. And that's that's exactly right, Barb,
says Jack regarding the shooter in his background. Does everyone

(25:22):
have to nominate who they support when registering to vote?
The shooter was registered as a Republican. No, it depends
on states. Basically, so if you want to vote in
a Republican primary, you want to vote on who's going
to be the Republican nominee for the general election. Most
states require you to be registered as a Republican, but
it doesn't mean you have to vote as a Republican

(25:42):
in the general election. Usually it just means that you
have to be registered if you want to contest the primaries.
Race ninety two ninety two is our text number quarter
to five on news doorg z'db. So the police reckon
they can attract somewhere between two hundred and fifty thousand
new recruits. Between zero and two and fifty thousand. There
are two hundred and fifty thousand people who haven't previously

(26:05):
been eligible to apply for the police because they don't
have their full licenses. So they are changing the eligibility
rules so that even if you've just got your restricted
driver's license, you can apply to join the police. Here's
the caveat. In order to pass Police Training College and
be sworn in as an officer, you have to have
got your full But my question is if you don't

(26:28):
have the self drive to get your full license. How
on earth should we as the public be trusting you
with the power to arrest people anyway? The police are
going to be with us after five o'clock, so we
will put that question to them. Right now, it is
twelve to five.

Speaker 2 (26:44):
Politics with centrics credit, check your customers and get payment
certainty and newstalks.

Speaker 3 (26:49):
He'd be political editor. Jason Walls is here, Kilder cure
a Jack Adam. Yeah, very well, thank you. So another day,
another Darlene Tanna update. What's the latest?

Speaker 13 (27:00):
I feel like you in the view and the listeners
might be getting a bit sick of me talking about this,
but it is the big story in town. Even more
developments on this and some of somewhat of an extraordinary case.
The last time we spoke about this, the Greens were
waiting to sign off from Darley in Tana before releasing
this report.

Speaker 3 (27:17):
She and her husband were not playing ball.

Speaker 13 (27:20):
Thus the report was sitting in somewhat of limbo land.
I say limbo. It's been leaking like a sieve every manner.
The dog seems to have a copy of this report.

Speaker 3 (27:29):
I wonder why.

Speaker 13 (27:30):
But the Greens have now said buggert and have just
released the executive summary, and there's been so much leaking.

Speaker 3 (27:36):
As I say that, there's.

Speaker 13 (27:37):
Not really too much surprising that we've seen in the
executive summary, which is about twelve pages, but we can
now see in plain English and black and white that
a key plank of Darhlian's Tana defense was that she
sold her shareholdings in April twenty nineteen and ceased active
involvement with the company. Then, however, the report says that
after that date she continued to be involved with the

(27:59):
company and that at times that involvement was quote extensive.
Tana has disputed aspects of the report, but lawyer rachel
Bert and the process used to complete it essentially said
that there has been conflicting stories and evidence that has
been moving around in the process of making up this report.

(28:19):
So all in all, it doesn't actually paint Tana in
a very good light at all, and that's what the
Greens are really banking on here.

Speaker 3 (28:26):
They want her gone.

Speaker 13 (28:27):
They weren't her out of parliament all together. But as
we learned on One News in the interview that they
did with Tana on Monday, she's still making up her
mind whether or not she's going to stay around saying
that she's taking advice from Ewe and Hapu, and she
says that she I mean to be honest with you, Jack,
it sounds like she's planning on staying, but she says
that she's going to let us all know soon now. Meanwhile,

(28:49):
Tana has also told one News that she has discussed
discussed with the Clerk of the House what expectations are
in place for her as an in the as.

Speaker 3 (29:00):
An independent MP. I'm presuming you were saying there, Jason, Yeah,
I mean, this is one of the things that she
needs to consider if she's going to stay on as
an independent. There are all sorts of logistical challenges. I
can't imagine that she might have the staffing arrangements that
some other political parties would have. So she's been talking
to the Clerk of the House. She's been talking to
the Clerk of the House and trying to get some

(29:21):
accurate sense and accurate information on that front. After five o'clock,
actually we're going to be speaking with Catherine Della Hunty,
the former Green's MP. I reckon this is going to
be dividing the Greens party. I reckon there will be
some people who reckon they should be invoking the Waker
Jumping Act and essentially kicking her out of Parliament, bringing

(29:41):
in a different Greens MP. I think there'll be some
other people who say no, no, no. We were vehemently
opposed to Waker jumping, even though we had to support
it in Parliament. We swallowed it. We swallowed a rat
that time. We're not going to be doing it again.
And yeah, that'll be their position, but it's going to
be very interesting if indeed Darling Tana does the side
to stay. Catherine Della Hunty with us after five o'clock

(30:02):
now that that executive summary has been released. Right now
it is eight to five.

Speaker 2 (30:08):
Putting the tough questions to the newspeakers the mic Hosking breakfast.

Speaker 14 (30:12):
It's a letter of expectations to farm at fire, make
churaul of benefit as well as could they point to
anything tangible that as a result of dealing with the
treaty in the way they did that they improved the
outcome for anybody in this country at all.

Speaker 15 (30:24):
Not not something that I can point to. You know,
we are responsible as well for access and there's something
in those more rural communities you get a different standard
of gear if you like in Auckland because of your
access to hospitals and medicines, and we want to make
sure that those medicines are getting.

Speaker 5 (30:40):
To the more rural areas.

Speaker 15 (30:41):
So and that consequence, I think it could be affecting
Marty that traditionally do look more rural areas sometimes.

Speaker 14 (30:47):
Back tomorrow at six am the Mic Hosking Breakfast with
Jaguar Newstalk ZB.

Speaker 3 (30:52):
Five to five on Newstalk ZEDBU with Jack Tame. If
there is one number you need to know today, this
is at three point three. That is the good news.
I think we can call it good news. Three point
three is the annualized inflation from the latest quarterly CPI.
The Consumer Price Index three point three, of course is
very very close to the Reserve banks target band of

(31:12):
one to three percent for inflation. So does this mean
that cuts to the OCR are coming well? The good
news is that a couple of banks have already upgraded
their forecast. A and Z moved shortly after that CPI
data came through today to say they are now expecting
cuts to the OCR in November of this year. What
I want to know is getting too excited? Is there

(31:34):
any possibility we could see fifty basis points this year
scraped off the OCR. Sharon z Olner is going to
be with us right after five o'clock this evening. We'll
be speaking with Nikola Willis. I note that the government
is already patting itself on the back and congratulating themselves
for that lower inflation number. Jack on the text machine,
why didn't Adrian or do his job in the past
six years. He's obviously just found a crystal ball. Honestly,

(31:56):
there is no credibility in this position. He is largely
responsible for the mess we're in and now trying to
rectify it. I mean, yeah, yeah, this is He's certainly
been a punching bag. The RB and Z has certainly
been a punching bag. And they have a delicate, delicate,
delicate road ahead of them as they try to ease
the OCR off whilst not adding to any inflationary pressures.

(32:20):
Ben's flick me a note to say, Jack, Darlene Tanner
has no mandate. The only mandate she had was being
a part of the Green Party, being a part of
that caucus as an MP. As far as I'm concerned,
she should be gone. And Viv reckons that Darlene will
go to Tiparty Mardi. I'm not so sure. Dev viv
I interviewed Debbie Nardi Wpacker from Tiparty Mardi this week

(32:42):
after that. Explicitly, she says she had zero contact with
Darling Tana. They hadn't reached out. Darling Tana hadn't reached
out to them. She wasn't expecting any communication as far
as she was concerned. It was a matter for the Greens,
and it is a matter for the Greens. So we'll
be putting this whole fiasco to form a Green emp
he Catherine dalla Hunty when she joins us after five.

(33:03):
Nikola willis with us, very sure. Soon news is next.
Note it's almost five o'clock. Jack j men for HEATHERN
and this is news doorg ZEDB.

Speaker 2 (33:13):
The only drive show you can trust to ask the questions,
get the answers by the facts and give the analysis.
Jack Daime on Heather due to see allan drive with
one New Zealand let's get connected News Talk zed B.

Speaker 3 (33:28):
So the data is out, annual inflation falling to three
point three percent in the June quarter, lifting hopes of
possible interest rate cuts sometime soon, ASB now forecasts a
twenty five basis point cut to the OCR in both
October and then again in November fifty basis points. This year, however,
non tradable inflation is still worryingly high, according to the data,

(33:49):
five point four percent for the quarter. Finance Minister Nikola
Willis is or with us this evening, Kelder, good evening, sure,
thank Jack. Is the cost of living crisis over?

Speaker 16 (34:01):
We are turning the corner. We are making very good progress.
It's not over until lation is back in the band
and we're seeing interest rates coming down. But today's data
shows us we are on track. We're making very good progress.
Inflation is now the lowest it's been in three years.
It's lower than many we're predicting it would be at
this point, and all signals of it. Our plan is working.

(34:25):
So I'm very pleased by today's data.

Speaker 3 (34:27):
Let's talk about that non tradable inflation. We often call
that that the domestic inflation relative to the international forces
at play. Five point four percent is still very high.
What do you put that down to?

Speaker 16 (34:38):
Well, what the data tells us is that the big
components there are rents, insurance rates, and home energy costs
that is easing. It's down from five point eight percent
in March and down from six point six percent this
time last year, so it clearly needs to move lower.
But overall that picture has improved.

Speaker 3 (34:57):
Rents and rates still a big issue. What can you
do about that?

Speaker 16 (35:02):
Well, we are determined to increase housing supply in New
Zealand because ultimately we want landlords having to peeps harder
for tenants. That's what will ultimately push things lower. And
we are conducting significant reforms to ensure that more homes
can be built more cheaply, both in terms of land
uice and in terms of building consents on rates book.

(35:23):
I put the challenge out there a councils me as
it doesn't in every single household in the country have
been pulling in belt being very disciplined about budgets. It's
time councils, I think that the same thing.

Speaker 3 (35:36):
So are there are obvious areas where you think councils
should perhaps be trimming their belts a little bit?

Speaker 16 (35:42):
Well, I just think they should do an exercise similar
to the one we've done as a government, which is
go line by line and work out are the bits
that could be trimmed back that no longer look like
the most important thing when you have new Zealanders, you know,
particularly those on six income superutence, who look at that
rates bill climbing at the rate it is and it
feels very unaffordable. So counsel has to step back, look

(36:03):
at their own costs and say, is there anything here
that we could be trimming.

Speaker 3 (36:08):
A lot of the cuts that you announced in the
budget haven't yet come into fruition their plan that they
haven't come through all the way yet, So look at
this as critically as you can, Minister. How much credit
can the government really take for this?

Speaker 16 (36:22):
Well, I think that we've had a period where the
governments made it a lot harder for the Reserve Bank.
They were actively pouring fuel on the inflation vivia in
the form of rapidly increasing expenditure. And we've put the
handbrake back on and that can only be helpful. And
the direction that we have set is one in which

(36:43):
we're going to be much more disciplined about government spend
there which I hope means the Reserve Bank will be
able to reduce interest rates quicker than would otherwise be
the case. We've also honed and on what is actually
behind the cost of living crisis, which for many people
is that the House doesn't stretches far. We're going direct
to the source. We're offering tax release so that people

(37:05):
will have more money in the advent accounts and that
will be coming on stream in just two weeks.

Speaker 3 (37:10):
Finance Minis Nichola Willis, thank you for your time, Thank you,
eleven past five on news Talk ZEDB. The Green Party
has released the executive summary of the Darling Tana Report.
As we kind of already know thanks to the leaks
of the report, the report found that it is likely
Darling Tanner knew more about migrant exploitation allegations at her

(37:31):
husband's business than she had perhaps led on. The Green
Party leadership is still noncommittal about whether or not Darling
Tana is likely to find herself walker jumped out of
Parliament anytime soon. Catherine Della Hunty is a former Green
MP and is with us this evening. Kilder Good evening, Well,
Kilder Jack. Can you see the Green Party holding its
nose and using the walker jumping law to push Darling

(37:54):
Tanner out?

Speaker 17 (37:56):
I think it's possible. I think that because they've got
a ag My experience of the Greenses in the past
is when there's been a big tricky issue, they take
it to the party and listen to the members as
much as they can. And I think that's quite likely
to happen given the timing of their AGM soon.

Speaker 3 (38:14):
So you think that it's likely as opposed to the
caucus deciding to use the Waker Jumping bill, that they'll
go to the AGM, put that to members, There'll be
a vote, and depending on the decision at that vote,
if Darling Towner was still in Parliament, they might choose
to invoke the Waker Jumping law.

Speaker 17 (38:29):
Well, I don't know that there'll be a vote. There
may be a process check green politics.

Speaker 18 (38:34):
Is always a process, yeah, and I mean it means
people get heard and that this happened once before.

Speaker 17 (38:39):
I remember when Jibet fitz Simons had to make a
call as a leader of the Party on climate change.
She went and talked to a large number of people
the party and listened up. They didn't actually vote, they
just talked, and then she got enormous amount of support
for the position she took.

Speaker 5 (38:55):
So I don't know what.

Speaker 17 (38:56):
Position the party will take on this. There's a history
which which of course goes right back to New Labor
Alliance days whereby the Greens supported the right to walk
a jump and so it's a difficult situation for them.
It's a real dilemma.

Speaker 3 (39:12):
Do you think Darling Tanna has a mandate to remain
in Parliament?

Speaker 17 (39:18):
I mean, as a former List MP, I think your
mandate comes an awful lot from your party. And although
you know, I don't know, I support people like Taddy
Naturia doing what she needed to do to leave the
Labor Party and Rodin Jeannette leaving the Alliance. I think
they were on very strong ethical grounds when they did that,

(39:41):
because they were going to create new parties. I think
it's difficult when you're an individual who's been accused of
the issues, which I'm not able to really comment on.
I don't know enough about it, but I think it's
difficult to say that's a mandate when you're an individual
and you're going to go independent. And also I think
it's hard to survive effectively and independent if you're not

(40:03):
in the political party. Under the current political system, it's
very difficult to be effective. And if you look at
the history of most of the people who have they've not
been picked out, but they haven't had a party. They
haven't they haven't been able to do very much.

Speaker 3 (40:16):
No, No, that's the thing. How effective can you really
be as an independent MP? Do you reckon if if
the Greens did use the waker jumping law that they
would be punished by voters.

Speaker 17 (40:26):
Actually, no, I don't think this is one of the
court issues that Green voters.

Speaker 3 (40:31):
I agree.

Speaker 17 (40:31):
I think that I think people just go well when
they when they when they were anti woker jumping, they
were talking about parties. Then there's individual cases and it's
very difficult to write law that covers all situations. The
difference between an individual who with whom they've lost based
and trust on both sides, and when when there's people

(40:54):
who are but when it really is about a co propper,
really it is about a co prapper with which it
was with Tulliama. Even though she's electrical MP, she still
had a mandate from the tongue of the fenerware right
across the country, huge grounds full of support for her
over the foresher and seabed, which is a different situation.

Speaker 3 (41:10):
It is it's a question of policy in that circumstance,
isn't it. Thank you so much for your time from
the Green MP Catherine Della Hunty, thanks for your feedback
as well. Jack, I believe the Greens lose all credibility
if they don't invoke Waiker jumping. Jack regarding Nikola Willis,
she is deluded. I've never heard of rents coming down.
Once re ententr up, they stay up. Come on, haven't
you heard of market forces? If you want to flick

(41:31):
aut a note, ninety two to ninety two is the
text number jacket news doorp SAIDB dot co dot NZID.
You will not believe this. Police are dropping the requirement
that new recruits have their full driver's license, so the
potentially are going to be taking on recruits who are
sitting on there restricted. Really have things become so desperate
to get our police numbers up that we're going to

(41:51):
be accepting people on their restricted. The police will be
with us in a few minutes. It's quarter past five.
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Speaker 11 (43:11):
Six two team.

Speaker 3 (43:13):
The New Zealand Police have announced a change to their
eligibility criteria. They are now allowing people on restricted driver's
licenses to apply to become police officers. The change is
hoping to increase the potential pool of new recruits by thousands,
with apparently a quarter of a million people two hundred
and fifty thousand currently sitting on a restricted license. Jill
Rogers is the Assistant commissioner with Police and is with

(43:35):
us now, good evening.

Speaker 1 (43:36):
Hi.

Speaker 3 (43:37):
Isn't having your full driver's license just one of the
most basic requirements?

Speaker 12 (43:43):
Yeah, you would think, so that's for our candidates. We've
known that this has been one of the barriers to
the recruitment JO needs with us, and so hence we've
made the decision to take the eligibility criteria back to
what it was in twenty seventeen, actually so that we
can have people start the process, so we can start
that recruitment journey for them while they were to get

(44:05):
that full license.

Speaker 3 (44:07):
But if someone can't show the initiative to get a
full license on their own, how do we know that
they have the capacity to be a good police officer.

Speaker 12 (44:17):
It's a number of different reasons as to why people
don't progress their licenses. One sometimes as age. Sometimes it
might be fiscal challenges and things. So we're working with
partners and things that if support's needed, we can help
people get their full driver's license. Otherwise it allows us
as if they're to start that process while a candidate,

(44:38):
some work themselves through getting from their restricted into full
driver's license.

Speaker 3 (44:43):
So to be clear, will someone be able to be
sworn in as a police officer without their full driver's license?

Speaker 12 (44:49):
No, No, they would still have to go through the
whole twelve step process. So no, they can't join without
a full New Zealand driver's license.

Speaker 3 (44:57):
How many people do you reckon have been turned down
in the past because they only had their restricted.

Speaker 12 (45:03):
We understand it's a decent amount. So we've been looking
closely at our recruitment pipeline for quite some time now
and this was the biggest barrier that we had that
we were able to do some research around people that
had landed on our pages and websites and things as
to why their interest hadn't translated into an application, and

(45:24):
we know that's not having a full driver's license was
the number one barrier.

Speaker 3 (45:29):
I just I don't know, it just seems it seems
crazy to me. That that is a barrier, and yet
we're going to make someone who couldn't overcome that barrier
have the power to erase people.

Speaker 12 (45:41):
There's a whole range of reasons that people no longer
may see that their driver's license was their priority. But
the exciting thing was this. It allows us to start
that process and so if we think they're an excellent
candidate and they're going to have the skills that we need,
then we can process that application. Obviously that doesn't mean
fit they're all going to get through. It still will

(46:02):
require us to take a good look as we always
do to maintain the standards. So it's not a change
and standards. It's still the really high standards that we
expect the candidates to come through before they get onto
a recruit wing.

Speaker 3 (46:15):
If it wasn't so tricky to recruit officers right now,
would we be making these changes.

Speaker 12 (46:23):
We know that delivering the eighteen hundred last year did
make a big dent in the pipeline that we had,
so we've had to make some, you know, to have
a look at the process, to have a lot how
we can better support candidates through to make sure that
we're getting the absolute best of those that put their
names in.

Speaker 3 (46:40):
And from the recruit pathways that you have in place.
Are you on track to hit the five hundred new officers?

Speaker 12 (46:48):
Do you think working really hard to deliver that you're
on track. So we've seen applications up considerably this year.
So since beginning of we've had a forty increase in application.

Speaker 4 (47:03):
Yeah.

Speaker 12 (47:04):
Sojent on the new coop site and that's where you
can start your application process.

Speaker 3 (47:10):
Thanks for your time. That is the New Zealand Police
Assistant Commissioner Jill Rodgers. Right now, it's twenty three past five.

Speaker 2 (47:17):
Jack tam cutting through the noise to get the facts.
It's Jack Tame on, Heather Dup Toicy Ellen drive with
One New Zealand.

Speaker 1 (47:25):
Let's get connected news talk as they'd be.

Speaker 3 (47:27):
The Greens have released the executive summary of their report
into Darlne Tanner and the question now is whether or
not she's going to decide to stay in parliament. So
Tana said in her interview with One News as Mikey
Sherman this week that she would take a little bit
more time before deciding whether to remain in parliament as
an independent MP. But if she does decide to stay around,
I think It's pretty clear the Greens have only one

(47:48):
real choice. If the party leaders believe in the integrity
of the report, a report which, let's not forget, took
the best part of four months to produce, then I
think they have little choice to instigate the Waker Jumping
legislation which they so publicly despised, and expel Darlene Tana
from Parliament. Let's not forget the main reason that the
Greens opposed the Waker Jumping legislation in the first place

(48:11):
is not for situations like this. The main reason they
opposed it was so that if an MP held a
different position on a really important policy or moral issue
to that which was being whipped by their party, then
they could take a moral stand and they could dissent.
This ain't that this is not a dispute over policy.

(48:33):
This is an MP whose colleagues believe has not been
truthful to the party, an MP who's brought the party
in the caucus into disrepute. And while Darling Tana might
complain about the process of this investigation, in some of
the findings, her former party leader and caucus colleagues have
been blunt. They want her out.

Speaker 4 (48:52):
Look.

Speaker 3 (48:52):
This should have been a week when the Greens were
laser focused on the government's climate plans. This week, of
all weeks, with the emissions reduction plan should have been
won where they represented their constituents in opposition. Instead, they
are still answering questions about the character of MPs who
were until very recently part of their caucus. The Greens

(49:14):
have swallowed a rat in the past, after all, they
voted to pass the Walker jumping bill into law, but
I actually don't think many people would resent them if
they swallowed another In this case. If Darling Tunner won't
quit on her own accord and they believe in the
integrity of the report, the Greens should cop a few
days of criticism for their hypocrisy, push her out and

(49:36):
move on.

Speaker 11 (49:37):
Jack two.

Speaker 3 (49:39):
Ninety two is the text number if you have got
some thoughts on that, we will be asking the huddle
before six o'clock, as well as that Tenacious d have
canceled their plans for touring New Zealand after Jack Black's
bandmate made an off color joke about Donald Trump. But
is that too much news? Is next? Our news dog?

Speaker 2 (49:59):
Zb Hard questions strong opinion Jack tame on Heather Duplicyland
Drive is one New Zealand Let's get connected News Talk as.

Speaker 1 (50:09):
Said be.

Speaker 3 (50:12):
It News TALKSB with Jacktame and for Heather before six o'clock,
we'll ask our huddle what they think about boot camps
costing one hundred thousand dollars per teen. I've perseverated over

(50:35):
that a little bit. I actually one hundred thousand dollars
per teen. If it's proved to be effective, it is
incredibly good value. But I guess that puts a lot
of pressure on that word if right. Anyway, we'll give
you more details about that very shortly and speak to
our huddle right now. It is twenty three minutes to six.
Jack t and American band Tenacious D has turned out

(50:55):
to be not quite as tenacious as the name suspects.
They have canceled their Wellington and Auckland shows after backlash
surrounding controversial comments about the attempted assassination of Donald Trump.
Band member Kyle Gas said on stage quote don't miss
Trump next time during their Sydney show. Jack Black his
BANDMATEE has signaled via social media that all future creative

(51:19):
plans are on hold. Wanita nevel Tedy Too is a
marketing expert and managing director of RX and as well,
it's this evening, Yoda, good evening, good evening, How are
you very well? Thanks? Come on? Do they really need
to cancel their entire tour over this?

Speaker 18 (51:36):
Look, it's really tough because I think the fans will
be feeling gutted.

Speaker 12 (51:40):
But it's not an overreaction.

Speaker 14 (51:43):
You know.

Speaker 18 (51:43):
The comments that were said are totally inappropriate. They might
feel a little innocious, but I think canceling was totally justified.

Speaker 3 (51:53):
I don't know, see even that canceling, right, if you
think about Donald Trump, Donald Trump's all about hating on
cancel culture. So isn't this the kind of cancel gulture
that Trump's the borders hate?

Speaker 18 (52:03):
Oh gosh here and it probably feels like fake news
as well. But if you think about the comments and
the type of people that are involved in you know,
political camps, this is something that's really highly volatile.

Speaker 12 (52:16):
It's about an individual, if.

Speaker 18 (52:17):
You like him not, who you know, can express his
freedom and shouldn't be you know, punished as a result.

Speaker 19 (52:24):
That's what democracy is all about.

Speaker 3 (52:26):
It wasn't Wasn't it just a joke?

Speaker 4 (52:28):
Though?

Speaker 3 (52:28):
I Mean, I'm not saying it was a good joke
or a tasteful joke even But isn't it just a joke?

Speaker 18 (52:33):
Look, I think us kiwis in US and you know
it started and Lozzi, we're a little bit laid back.

Speaker 12 (52:38):
We do take a bit of a joke. We sit
in that moderate camp.

Speaker 18 (52:42):
But when it gets to politics like this, In situations
like this, people can be extremists. We're not used to that,
and you know, you have to take those type of
things into consideration. So whilst it feels like a joke,
it was about something that was actually quite serious.

Speaker 3 (52:57):
So how much apprecia do you reckon there would have
been from you know, advertisers and sponsors and that kind
of thing.

Speaker 18 (53:03):
Look, I reck and these guys were a step ahead
of the game and they reacted before anyone else could.
Because just think about the pr fallout after that, because
whilst Trump wasn't hurt, other people were.

Speaker 7 (53:17):
And that'sn't really that funny.

Speaker 18 (53:19):
And you're right, that's what advertisers would react to when
and maybe some extremists as well.

Speaker 3 (53:24):
Yeah yeah, and I suppose you know, and one sense
this might help to protect fans, even if it means
they're not going to be seeing their favorite.

Speaker 18 (53:34):
Band Oh look, I think as much as we don't
like it, the world is not as safe as we
sometimes think, and we've seen some horrible things happen at
concerts than it is. It's about protecting the hand bands.
Worst case scenario, you might have a protest that you've
got to get through sort of as a sorry best
case worst case could be far worse. So they do

(53:54):
have to put their fans first and also think about
the venue that they were at as well. So taking
a real assessment of what might happen. As much as
we wouldn't like to think we're in you know, countries
that that might happen, they do have to think about that.

Speaker 3 (54:08):
So Jack Black said on social media afterwards that quote
all future creative plans are on hold for Tenacious D.
I mean, okay, canceling a tour is one thing that's
a pretty big call, But canceling a friendship, come on,
that's too far right.

Speaker 18 (54:25):
Oh look, if you know it sort of sucks, yes,
But there's commerciality with them this as well, and Jack
Black probably has to think about what is his the
future capability of earning money, and sometimes that is impacted
by the people you hang out with because maybe people
won't book him again, maybe.

Speaker 16 (54:45):
He won't get gigs.

Speaker 17 (54:46):
He does have to think about that.

Speaker 18 (54:47):
But if anything, they've made a good call in owning
it and making an apology and saying that they are going.

Speaker 19 (54:54):
To be reflective about this.

Speaker 3 (54:56):
Yeah, yeah, hey, thanks so much for your time. We
need to really appreciate it.

Speaker 1 (55:00):
It's Vita Pleaser.

Speaker 3 (55:01):
That is Wenita Neville Teddy Tour. Right now, it's nineteen
to six.

Speaker 2 (55:05):
The Huddle with New Zealand Southeby's International Realty Unparalleled Reach
and Results.

Speaker 3 (55:10):
Huddler's This Evening fellow Riley for my own Duke Partners
and former CEO of Business New Zealand, and Mike Munroe,
the former chief of staff for Decindra Ardu and keld Acordawa.
There you go, Ry Jack michae let's start with you.
I don't know if you're a big tenacious defan. I'm
surprised there are still tenacious defans out there, but apparently
there are. Did they make the right call in canceling
the tour?

Speaker 6 (55:32):
I think they did? Jack, then he You know the
thing is that there's different kinds of jokes. There's jokes
which are light harder and you and funny and the
other jokes which are sick and mister point entirely, I
think that this this one falls into the into the
latter category. You know, you might recall that when Ronald

(55:53):
Raygan survived an assassin's bought up many years ago out
of the immortal line, honey, I forgot to duck, and
that was sort of funny. It wasn't original, but it
was funny, and he was he was affected, so I
suppose he could make jokes about it. But in this case,
you've basically got a joke where a guy is saying
that he wished Trump had been had been shot dead.
And you know, and Jack Black in his band, as

(56:16):
I understand, are an American band, they had to live
in the country and and I just think they made
the right decision and they made it all accounts immediately
that that that that you know, this too could.

Speaker 3 (56:29):
Not go a yet they certainly acted swiftly. I don't know,
pl I'm just I'm surprised to find myself for being
the anti cancel culture guy. But I just I think
it was a terrible joke. I think it was an
awful thing to say. I don't think it was funny
for a moment, I think they should apologize, but then
it's just like ah, man, the entire tours immediately caught off.
The band might never perform again, they might never write music.
You know, Am I being a being too unfair?

Speaker 6 (56:53):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (56:54):
Jack, I think it goes to the class of Jack
Black himself. Actually, he's really the impression I've got of
a as he's a a very good actor, of course,
and a very good musician. I'm sure we've listened to
her as music, but I'm sure he is and he's
but he's also very straight up guys, very you know,
he's very clear about his own morality and so on.
And I think it was in character for him to
do that, actually, because others might have said, wow, you know,

(57:16):
it wasn't what wasn't you know? It was an accident,
We'll just carry on and make the next million, And
he said, no, we're not going to do that if
you win to cancel. And I think Mike's right the
problem they've got if they kept on it. But it's
a terrible thing to say, by the way, and it's
he called it hate speech, and it's terrible. There's no
excuse for it. But the but the challenge they've got
on practical terms is yours your expert just sait a

(57:36):
minute ago. Now every concert they turn up to will
be about that, and it's just hopeless. You can't make
music and entertain people and have with a fun if
it's all going to be about that. So I think
they're right to cancel it, take a pause and really
think about how they really emerge now. And of course
they'll be. They'll be gutted about it, and so they
should be. It was a terrible it was a terrible,
silly mistake to make.

Speaker 3 (57:56):
So the CPI is at three point three ASP saying
we'll see fifty basis points carved off the ocr this year.
Are you feeling that optimistic, phil.

Speaker 4 (58:05):
Oh, I'm not sure about fifty, but I do think
I do think there's a good chance now that they
do something. The reason is if you look at the
real economy, So inflation three point three, yeah, that's mostly
non trader was now its councilor rates and you know,
insurances and stuff. Am in recount rates here and running
to just being ridiculous, whereas the trade of the real
economy dying in a ditch. You zero point three percent
just dying. Business conditions out there are absolutely dire for

(58:29):
most businesses, I can assure you. So I think that
I think there was a evank will come through and
say something before before Christmas, that's good Christmas present for
foll of us. Where it's where it's fifty, I think
that's a big call. I picch quarter actually quarter of
a percent.

Speaker 3 (58:43):
I've trained myself into it has been incredibly pessimistic about
the state the IC over the last couple of years.
Mike Nichola Willis was with us after five o'clock. Of course,
the government, there's any government, would trying to take as
much credit as they can for this, but it's the
truth has to be said. They have taken some demand
out of their I.

Speaker 6 (59:00):
Mean yeah, well, I mean governments will always claim the
credit for these improvements in these in these stats, no
matter how small they are. Look, today's movement is almost
a material It doesn't mean a hell of a lot.
The key thing is that people still feel like they're
under the pump. There's a perception out there that we're
getting stung by rising prices all the time, whether the

(59:22):
energy costs, rising rents, council rates, you know.

Speaker 1 (59:25):
And.

Speaker 6 (59:26):
While people are feeling that way. These numbers don't really
mean anything and don't have any impact. The other pressure
on morbage rates and housing costs is still very real.
Sure of Reserve Bank might move later on share to
do that, but right now we're immersed in a winter
of discontent. It doesn't look like getting brighter anytime soon.

Speaker 3 (59:48):
Yeah, Mike Munroe, phill O Riley, Oh, Huddler's this evening.
We're back with them in a few minutes. Right now,
it's fourteen to six.

Speaker 2 (59:54):
The Huddle with New Zealand Southby's International Realty unparalleled reach
and results.

Speaker 3 (01:00:00):
You're back with Pillow, Riley and Mike Munroe. So the
police are changing their eligibility criteria for new recruits. You
will no longer have to have your full driver's license
to become a police recruit. You will, however, have to
have the full license to be sworn in as an officer.
I don't know, Phil, Do you know if you haven't
got the gumption to get up and get your full
should you really be a police officer?

Speaker 4 (01:00:21):
I must say probably, driving on a restricted license, I'll
be better than half the drivers on the road, especially
as I drive around the place. Oh look, look, This
is about the police really trying to reach in and
widen out the pool. Of course, it used to it
to be sort of a foot tall and and a
sort of a lot to doing the police, and now
you don't have to do that, you know. It s
there's a bunch of things that they're doing to try
and widen out their criteria. It is It isn't the margins,

(01:00:44):
I must say, But of course the police are going
through specific driver training anyway. They don't just keep their license.
They've got to go through all sorts of other stuff
as well. So it's on the margins, but it does
demonstrate just how hard the police are trying to get
to to get recruits, no question.

Speaker 3 (01:00:57):
Yeah, so I've actually changed my view on this. At
the very least, I'm open to changing my view, Mike.
So we've got a text saying Jack, normally your instincts
are spot on, thanks mam. Now, the number of kids
at a school where I'm a foundation trustee who can't
afford their licenses astonishing, And a good portion of our
fundraising goes to help fund the driver's license for kids
who want to get jobs and apprenticeships. Because what happens
this Texas is is they get the minimum, so they

(01:01:20):
get the restricted and then they just sit there. They're like, well,
why would I pay another couple of hundred bucks and
wait for how many months to get you know, to
get a test. So if you look at it through
that leans, I can kind of understand it. Mike.

Speaker 6 (01:01:32):
Yeah, the important thing here is that they can only
start their training as a police officer when they've got
these full license. Yeah, and you know, the police running
going through a very problem at page at present. We've
been hearing all sorts of numbers bandies about in the
recent days. Got the number of cops are going to Australia,
the fact I've been popping up on TV and telling

(01:01:54):
us how much they're enjoying life across there in Australia.
So there's a real problem there. And as the cops
here today, uh, this is you know, this this restricted
drivers business is creating an unnecessary barrier. So to me,
it makes sense to get rid of it so they
can apply into the pipeline. And as I said at
the beginning, you know they still need a foot license

(01:02:14):
to start their training in that. It's the critical thing,
isn't it.

Speaker 4 (01:02:17):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:02:18):
Interesting we've got the first little bit of information about
how these boot camps are going to be run for
serious youth offenders in New Zealand. Just going to read
out a couple of things that people will be doing
on an average day, as well as a bit of
physical activity in the morning, they'll be having fuck up
upper and cultural connection sessions, counseling, they'll have a daily
wellness activity. It's not really sounding like a boot camp

(01:02:39):
as a film.

Speaker 4 (01:02:40):
Well, maybe maybe you can talk to the army about that.
Maybe they do all that the days. Maybe it's ouiji
boards and small smelling felts. Where where army people? But no,
you're right, but I think the old boot camp body
was always a bit of a misnomer. It was always
it was always, you know, a bit of a whistle
to the right track. I did some of those. I
wasn't an apartment it was the member of them, beough.

(01:03:02):
I was a leader one of them under the last
under the last Key government, and they were brilliant for
what they were. This kid's got got out of bed
billion in the morning, you know, spoke a bit, but
you know, a good food and help phys electivity and
of course there was no support for them afterwards. And
that's the critical bet precisely, and it looks like the
government's trying to do something about that. And I must say,
when I looked at the one hundred thousand dollars costs,

(01:03:24):
I thought that's quite high until you realize that it
costs one hundred and fifty thousand dollars a year to
keep someone in jail in New Zealand. So the paycheck
is pretty good if it works. And I think I
think we should all lean into this and say, look,
let's see if this works. Let's make sure that they
do get the right support, because the upsides to it
are massive if you can make it, if you can
make it work, given that these because we're talking about

(01:03:45):
here are not kiuds you've stolen the car. These are
some of the hardests and then and so I was
likely that they will actually end up in jail without
this kind of thing. So when it comes to me
thinking about an investment as a tax payer, I'm thinking,
so I'm prepared to visit quite a bit to keep
them out of.

Speaker 3 (01:04:00):
If it works going on, because that's it. Yeah, I
mean that could be they could go in and out
of prison for the next fifty years for all we know.
What do you think mine?

Speaker 6 (01:04:08):
Yeah, well, look at this approach is out data that
it's failed, and the NETS have tried already in the
last twenty years. They tried at two thousand and eight,
and the reoffending rate or something like eighty five percent
in two years. Look. The other thing is, well, when
I read that sort of list of competencies required day,
I mean that that list is just impossible. And I
started thinking, where are you going to find these people?

(01:04:29):
Where are these geniuses out there who are going to
come forward and work these long days with these very
difficult people to try and have GETTM on you know,
on straight and narrow. I just I just think that
that's going to be the big challenge, is putting in
place to personnel to actually make this thing work.

Speaker 3 (01:04:46):
Okay, thanks so much for your time, guys, really appreciate it. Phillo, Riley,
Mike Munroe huddle this evening seven to six.

Speaker 2 (01:04:53):
On your smart speaker, on the iHeart app and in
your car on your drive home. Heather Duplice Allen Drive
with One New Zealand One Giant Leap for Business News
Talk and.

Speaker 3 (01:05:04):
Sid BE News Talk said bet you with Jack Tame
Dave has flicked me a note to say, Jack, I
got my full license ten days after my fifteenth birthday,
got my heavy trucking license at eighteen. But I'm pleased
giving kids a break as far as I'm concerned, so
long as they do a defensive driving course, so long
as they are trained by a driving instructor, give them
the full license, get them in the police. And as

(01:05:24):
it happens, I still work with a seventy five year
old who's on there restricted. That's pretty well. The seventy
five year old's probably clear for driving after ten pm.
They probably know that they're pretty unlikely to get pulled over.
You know, if you're sort of fifteen, you maybe look
slightly more suspicious to the police. Jack, absolutely crazy that
police are looking to open this up. I worked at
the police college. The driving standards have plummeted. Too many

(01:05:46):
already can't drive. The driver training has been massively watered
down in my view as well. If you want to
fix a note, ninety two. Ninety two is the text
number after that CBI darted. Today A and Z has
become the latest to bring forward their forecast for a
CA in the official cash rate. They were predicting one
in the first quarter of next year. They now say
a November twenty five point basis cut is more likely.

(01:06:08):
They're not quite as excitable as ASB at the stage,
who reckon a fifty point cut by the end of
this year is likely. But we're going to catch up
with a Z cheap economist Sharon Zolner when she joins
us after six o'clock. It is just coming up to
six though, Jack tame in for Heather to pussy Allen.
This of course is news talk ZB.

Speaker 1 (01:06:29):
Keeping practive where the money is flowing.

Speaker 2 (01:06:31):
With the Business Hour with Jack, Tam and my Hr
on Newstalks FB.

Speaker 3 (01:06:39):
Well, I don't think anyone's feeling too gloomy about the
numbers from this CPI today. However, a lot of pressure
on the RB and Z to start cutting sooner rather
than later. Jack, come on, look at the annualized inflation
over the last three quarters. We're talking two percent two percent.
The Reserve Bank a mucking around. If they don't cut
sometime soon, it'll be really intriguing to see how the

(01:07:03):
data of the next month or so influences the Reserve
Bank's decision. Heading into the end of this year, Certainly
the numbers today were better than they had previously been expecting,
and better than many of the bank economists had been
expecting for today as well. But it would be sweet
relief for many New Zealand mortgage holders and businesses our
economy at large if the ocr was cut by fifty

(01:07:26):
basis points by the end of this year. Less we
get too excited anyway, We're going to catch up with
AMZ chief economist Sharon Zoland when she joins us in
a week. While right now it's eight minutes past six.
Jack Team and the Commics Commission has ruled that Auckland
Airport's proposed charge increased to help fund infrastructure, are too high.
The draft report states the airport's charges would see it

(01:07:48):
make about two hundred million dollars in excess profits and
drive up airfares. Auckland the Airports said it we're consider
reducing future charges after further consultation. Billy Moore is the
CEO of New Zealand Airport's Association and is with us now.
Curability just give us a little bit of context here,
remind us how this all works. Because Auckland Airport is

(01:08:09):
effectively regulated by the COMMOS Commission.

Speaker 4 (01:08:12):
That's right.

Speaker 19 (01:08:12):
So Auckland, Willington and christ To airports go through a
process with the Commerce Commission after every pricing round, so
every five years, they set their prices and that's through
a consultation process with all the stakeholders, including the airlines.
They make a decision about their capital plans, and the
Commerce Commission reviews how they've gone about that process in

(01:08:35):
order to ensure that they're targeting the right rate of
return and that the process has been consultative and followed
in the right way. This is the fourth time Aukin
the Airport has been through this process and the draft
report has come out today is now our fear. The
consultation process before the report is finalized by Q one

(01:08:56):
next year.

Speaker 3 (01:08:56):
And there is usually a bit of brainsmanship right between
the airport and the airlines which use those airport facilities,
and certainly this time around there's been a little bit
of tension. Some of the airlines, particularly in New Zealand,
been pretty outspoken and saying they felt the charges were
too high. So talk us through what the draft report
from the Commerce Commissioner has found.

Speaker 19 (01:09:15):
Yeah, sure, Look, this is a there is always this
kind of brinkmanship at one level or another, and that's
because the airports have to plan really long term. The
airlines are managing really short term, short term framing on
their profitability. So the process is designed to try and
balance those things and evaluate the outcomes to consumers between

(01:09:38):
those short term and long term issions. So the ComCom
has come out today with a number of draft judgments.
They have said that they think the airport's target rate
of return is too high. Now, part of this is
because of the fact that we the airports went through
its pricing process, it was having to go by the
twenty sixteen and put methodologies from the Commerce Commission. They

(01:10:00):
didn't account for the pandemic, so that the airport itself
had to evaluate how to incorporate that risk into its
into its approach. The Commission has taken a different view
on how that should have been managed, so the consultation
process will help to flash that out and how it
should be to manage. So that's the main issue around
the tape rate of return. However, on the other hand,

(01:10:22):
the Commission has said that they believe that the airport
has run a good process, that their expenditure is significant
but reasonable, and they've done an appropriate consultation process and
an appropriate costing process around all the various elements of
the capital plan. So that will be really heartening for

(01:10:43):
the airport to hear after twelve years at this consultation process.

Speaker 1 (01:10:46):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:10:47):
Yeah, because that's a really important point because I remember
some of the criticisms, just going back to the dispute
between the airlines and the airport when this was being prepared.
I think one of the criticisms that was leveled to
the airport and you know, quite forcefully denied, was that
effectively they had sweated the asset right, that shareholders had
demanded too many returns to early as opposed to investing

(01:11:09):
those returns into the future development of the airport. So
do the ComCom have stuff to say about that?

Speaker 19 (01:11:15):
Look, I'm not sure about that aspect, but it is
a good question, I think in terms of you know,
looking back on the last kind of twelve years, there's
been periods where the infrastructure spin was deferred due to COVID,
which is perfectly reasonable, you know, I needed it wasn't
the time to have some of those costs passed through

(01:11:36):
to the airlines. There was also a period where it
was just an extremely hard slog through the consultation process
for or Clan Airport, and I'm aware of even one
airline that didn't want any infrastructure investment at all. So
airlines are incentivized and it's natural and understandable that they
want to keep their input costs as low as possible.
That does mean that through these consultation process they are

(01:11:57):
trying to keep infrastructure investment to a minimum. The airport
is looking at the capacity they need to provide to
bring in more competition as well as their own resilience
and things. So that does mean that for an airport
of this size that it can be a big debate,
It could take a bit longer, and you could have
could have the process life longer than the airport would like.

(01:12:20):
There's lots of messinations and history around that that the
airport will be able to talk in more detail about.
But I do very much sympathize with it, and now
it's time to get onto the job.

Speaker 3 (01:12:29):
Yeah yeah, I mean it is actually like, when you
break it down like that, is such a complex and
kind of unique relationship right between the between the airlines
and the airport and what both parties in the ways
in which both parties depend on each other and yet
can can sometimes be working against the other's absolute financial interests.
You know, like it is, you can you can understand

(01:12:50):
what it requires regulation. So talk to us about the
response from today. How has aukcned the airport responded?

Speaker 19 (01:12:57):
So Auckland Airport has said in response to the Commerce
Commission's comment upon its tailored rate of return, they've said, look,
you know, we'll engage in the consultation process. As the
final report confirms that position, then we will lower our
landing charges.

Speaker 5 (01:13:14):
And look, this is this is a really.

Speaker 19 (01:13:16):
Good commitment from Auclaney Port to see it shows the
regulatory process working the way it should. And many listeners
might recall that last time we went through this process
with all Clane Airport, a similar process happened where the
ComCom provided feedback and all cuypooks did adjust their prices.
So essentially they're signaling, look, of course we'll take the

(01:13:37):
Commerce Commissions view seriously. There's lots of technical stuff in
this process and they will they will respond so to
me having to monitor this kind of stuff across the
airport then and around the state of the system. That's
that's good. That's the kind of process that we that
we need to see happening.

Speaker 3 (01:13:58):
Yeah, I'm just thinking about this from a strategic perspective.
Is it kind of like a negotiation of sorts and
that Auckland Airport can put forward its plans and the
other regulated airports and they always go in a bit
high knowing that the Comcom's going to peg them back
a little bit.

Speaker 19 (01:14:15):
No, I wouldn't say that. I think that can happen
in jurisdictions overseas where they some jurisdictions do require what
we call the negotiate arbitrate processing and often because there's arbitration,
and the airport you know, might go high knowing that
they're going to have to negotiate down. Our system allows
the airport to make the final decision on their plan.

Speaker 5 (01:14:37):
And that avoids that.

Speaker 19 (01:14:39):
Process in my view. Essentially, our system, which has been
tested over many years and I think is in a
pretty good field state. It keeps the airport with the
power to set prices. It requires them to do all
that consultation, but they can make the final call. And
what that does is it means that you know, they
will be you know, pulled apart through the Commerce Commission process,

(01:15:02):
as they should be. But Ultimately they can get the
infrastructure moving. And when we look at other infrastructure classes
around New Zealand where there's to ferral and delay, for instance,
the Council wants to keep rates down and we'll defer
water infrastructure maintenance, things like that. We can avoid that
phenomenon kind of happening across the airport sector because of

(01:15:23):
the ability to put airports to take into account all
the issues and still kind of make a plan and
move forward and get down infrastructure moving. So to me,
that's a really important part of the system that helps
us keep going with the capacity and the infrastructure that
our communities need.

Speaker 3 (01:15:41):
Yeah, hey, thank you so much. Billy, really really appreciate
your time this evening. It's Billy Moore, who is the
CEO of New Zealand Airport's Association. As we said too
that Auckland Airport is I mean that they're in the
process already of a really really significant upgrade. But yeah,
it'll be interesting to see when that final report is
retured and from the Commerce Commission what is decided in

(01:16:02):
terms of fees that are likely to be passed on
to us as airline passengers. If you've got thoughts, ninety
two ninety two is our text number. Jacket Newstalks b
dot co dot nz is the email address. It's just
coming up to seventeen past six.

Speaker 2 (01:16:16):
Crunching the numbers and getting the results. It's headed duplic
Ellen with the business hours thanks to my hr, the
hr platform for sme on us TALKSB.

Speaker 3 (01:16:27):
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(01:16:48):
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(01:17:09):
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You could even nominate yourself if you like. Aside from
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(01:17:30):
a show of recognition for their money Jack team. Twenty
past six, Time to catch up with Sam Trathui, portfolio
manager at Milford Asset Management.

Speaker 20 (01:17:39):
Good evening, sir, good em jack.

Speaker 3 (01:17:40):
So what did we learn today about the outlook for inflation?

Speaker 20 (01:17:45):
I think numbers princes today were very positive and that
there was plenty of details across the release showing that
inflation pressures are reducing. So probably the three point three
percent headline and rate of inflation was what was what
everyone wanted to see. It was down on four percent
from last quarter, below what most economists and importantly the
rb AND said we're looking for or expecting. And I

(01:18:05):
think it also highlights that the demand in the economy's weakening,
pressures of tightness that were previously there in the likes
of labor market well and truly back to more normal
or pre pandemic levels. And you could say, look that
everyone who has been involved in business or watching the
economy for some time now we'll have nine things were weak,

(01:18:26):
but this is really reassuring confirmation, particularly for the RB,
and said that inflation, which has really been keeping interstracts high,
is now under control.

Speaker 3 (01:18:34):
Yeah, so let's think about their position. Last week they
softened this dance compared to six sex earlier. Some even
caught it a bit of a flip flop. They said
they expected inflation could return back to that one to
three target band over the second half of this year.
How do you think today's data will affect that view?

Speaker 20 (01:18:54):
But I think the IV and z Adrian or He'll
be very relieved and I think we're shit reassured. And
last week they were talking for the first time of
emerging downside to economic activity after previously, as you said,
being much more concerned about how difficult it would be
getting to get sorry inflation under control, and that was
as recently as May. So I think they'll be able

(01:19:15):
to comfortably now stand behind that message from last week
and say, look, we are hitting back into that target band.
The inflation job is nearly there. The real question now
for them, and one that I think most economists will
be trying to answer, is when will be official cashert
big cuts and how quickly and how many cuts will
be made. Clearly for most of us in the mortgage

(01:19:37):
that's very very important. So financial markets, we have seen
expectations for one, if not two cuts priced into markets
this year. It means that every meeting of the rbn
Z for the rest of the year, of which there
are three, will be treated as a live meeting where
they could make that change.

Speaker 3 (01:19:55):
Yeah, and finally, Sam, we've seen a rally for the
ended since that change and tone from the RBNZ. How
did the sheer market react today? Did did the rally continue?

Speaker 20 (01:20:06):
The rally continues today, So the market was up again.
And look, there definitely has been that big turnarout of
performance since that rbs IS meeting last week. So up
four percent, well over four percent since then, which is
a real turnaround and performance of the internets more broadly
over since it's over the over this month compared to
in recent times where it has been a real stark
underperformer versus other global markets. So what we are seeing

(01:20:29):
is some enthusiasm towards the prospect of rate cuts and
some of the bigger underperformers in the market, the likes
of Ryn and Healthcare and Fleatured Building rally quite hard
on the news so broadly the interet ex there's a
market with a high degree of sensitivity turnus rates because
of the high dividend paying nature of our stocks. But
the key, the key risk to all this is that

(01:20:50):
coming up in August we do get earnings financial results
from any of our companies, and I wouldn't expect any
fireworks there. Jack, the management teams, the earnings like you
still be pretty tough. Just rate cuts to come. The
transmission through to our economy activity will take time so
well into twenty twenty five, and that's when when a
big improvement and earnings could start to come through, which

(01:21:12):
is what you really need to drive markets higher.

Speaker 3 (01:21:15):
Lovely work, Thanks so much, Sam sam Tratui from Milford
Asset Management, twenty four past six.

Speaker 2 (01:21:21):
Everything from SMEs to the big corporates, The Business Hour
with Jack team and my HR, the HR platform for
SME US talks'd be on here.

Speaker 3 (01:21:31):
We were all feeling so smug. Three point three percent
the CPI data out today the best it has been
in an awfully long time. The drums beating that much
louder for a cut to the OCR sometime soon, maybe
two cuts this year, who knows. Here's the thing though,
compare us to the UK. They've just had their inflation

(01:21:53):
rate come through unchanged two percent, dead on target. So
we're at three point three, they're at two percent, very
much in the same target band, very much dead center
of the target band at the moment. So if you
think there is pressure in New Zealand for the Reserve
Bank to start acting and cutting interest rates, cutting the OCR,
I can tell you the pressure on the Bank of
England is significantly high. We're going to tell you a

(01:22:13):
bit more about that before seven o'clock this evening, after
six thirty as well. A and Z chief economist Sharon
Zolner is going to be with us. Sharon and her
team moved pretty quickly today with their forecast once that
CPI data was through. They changed from forecasting the first
cut to the OCR as being from the first quarter
of next year to a twenty five basis point cut

(01:22:36):
in November. I'm going to ask Sharon what it would
take to up that. What do we need to see
a fifty point basis cut this year? Maybe I am
just being a little too optimistic. Plus you will not
believe what sniffer dogs in Ecuador have found hidden in
a box of bananas. News is next on News Dogs EDB.

Speaker 1 (01:22:56):
If it's to do with money.

Speaker 2 (01:22:58):
Ed manners to you Business Hour with Jacktam and my HR,
the HR platform for SME used Talk ZB.

Speaker 3 (01:23:24):
You're with Jacktam on Newstalk ZB. New government in the
UK and they are moving quickly. Thirty five new laws
have been proposed over the last couple of days, including
one that might pique your interest. It's a crackdown on shoplifting.
So back in twenty fourteen, a decade ago, they introduced
a new law in the UK that meant that what
they called low value theft, so anything under about two

(01:23:47):
hundred pounds was subject to less serious punishment. Or they
are reversing that now, so they're going to be targeting
people who steal goods worth less than two hundred pounds,
shoplifters basically. Anyway, we'll give you the details on that
law change for shortly. Right now, it is twenty three
minutes to seven. Jack Team and A and Z is
forecasting a twenty five basis point rate cut from the

(01:24:09):
Reserve Bank in November of this year. So they've brought
for their previously forecasted cut. They thought the first cut
was going to be coming from the RB and Z
to the OCR in February of twenty twenty five. It
comes off the back of today's inflation data, the CPI
dipping to a three year low three point three percent
for the June quarter. It still remains outside of the

(01:24:29):
reserves Reserve banks target band, of course one to three percent,
but you would have to say it's getting very close. Indeed,
A and Z chief economist Sharon 's Olner is with
us KalDer. Good evening. Oh are you going to sleep
easy tonight? Good news?

Speaker 4 (01:24:42):
Eh?

Speaker 5 (01:24:43):
Yeah, everyone was good news.

Speaker 7 (01:24:45):
I mean, while it's true that domestic complation was a
midch high and the Reserve Bank expected, it looked like
it was actually just technical factors and the other part
of inflation, the important bit was lower. So yeah, overall,
I think it confirms the vibes that things are more
under control than the Reserve Bank feared back in May.

Speaker 3 (01:25:02):
And it was low enough for you to upgrade your forecast.

Speaker 7 (01:25:06):
Well yeah, up Itward brought forward our forecast for when
the Reserve Bank will cut.

Speaker 3 (01:25:10):
Up grade from our perspective, shower.

Speaker 7 (01:25:13):
Yes, certainly. I think businesses are looking for some light
at the end of the tunnel, and if that could
be this year, then I think that would be good.
The market is convinced that they'll be coming earlier in
that they're putting fifty peen odds on a cut as
soon as next month, maybe getting ahead of themselves there.
But we'll see what the unemployment rate does in the
data that's out a week before that.

Speaker 3 (01:25:33):
So what do you think we would need to see
to see either a twenty five basis point cut next
month or fifty basis points across this year.

Speaker 7 (01:25:45):
So the Reserve Bank will cut when they're convinced that
information is going to return to two percent and then
stay with them the band, so they've got a bit
of a buffer to absorb the inevitable surprises that will
come along. So for them to cut sooner than November,
I think we would needs them to basically acknowledge mistake
that they already should have been cutting by now. Possibly

(01:26:07):
they could always cut fifty points later, but if say
the unemployment rates shot much higher than expectations, that could
do it. That's the only data they'll have really before August,
apart from the usual monthly reads like the business surveys
and the like. But before October there'll be a bit
more data in the bag. Before November, they'll have the whole.

Speaker 12 (01:26:27):
Suite of everything.

Speaker 7 (01:26:27):
So it's just how they weigh up that desire for
certainty with the risk of holding rates too high for
too long and causing unnecessary pain.

Speaker 3 (01:26:35):
You mentioned the non tradeable still at five point four
percent for you know what we often deem as being
domestic inflation. Why is that still so high?

Speaker 7 (01:26:44):
Yeah, the good banks thought it would be four point
one percent by now when they stopped hiking, so that's
still a big gap. But yeah, there's some key things
like rents, rates and insurance, for example. But as the
general price increase across the economy falls and those things
still to stranded on the top side than if their
outliers and the Reserve Bank will be able to look

(01:27:04):
through them. So essentially, we expect the Reserve Bank to
stop talking more about the headline level of inflation and
starts to talk more about the core inflation measures because
they should have a bit more space to look through
stuff now that it looks like they're winning the war.

Speaker 3 (01:27:19):
Yeah, does anything in today's numbers give you cause for anxiety.

Speaker 7 (01:27:26):
No, not really, I mean there was some solid progress
I would say, I mean, yes, it is disappointing that
non tradable inflation hasn't fallen more over the last year,
but there's good science going forward if you look at
what firms are saying about their costs and their prices,
that sort of thing. It's still taking a while, but
there was nothing in today's data that suggested that the

(01:27:47):
economy needs to go through more pain than we thought
to beat inflation, which was definitely the tone of the
Reserve Bank's montrospolicy statement in May.

Speaker 3 (01:27:55):
And do you feel confident that in three months time,
when we're looking back at the September quarterly data, we
will be comfortably within the Reserve banks target band.

Speaker 7 (01:28:04):
It's looking like it at the moment, but of course
you'll never say that with one hundred cent certainty, because if
there was a sudden million oil shocks, for example, that
the headline numbers could move around quite quickly.

Speaker 3 (01:28:16):
Damn it, Sharon, I shouldn't have put that as my
last question this CD, but thank you very much for
your time. We appreciate it. Sharon Zold The who is,
of course ain Z's chief economists, and she had a
nice sharon about this. But ain Z has dropped some
of its home loan and term deposit rates, and this
comes after Westpac I think lowered some of their rates
last week. So ain Z's decreased its home loans with

(01:28:39):
a thirty basis point drop on their two year special rate.
That's down to six point four to nine perandom of
twenty nine point basis drop on their one year special
rate to six point eight five. I've got to reset
in October. So what do we think end of October?
Throw this open to the wisdom of the crowds. The
thing is that once they start cutting, the real question

(01:28:59):
is how quick are they going to cut in how
far are they going to go? Right, Because even if
the Reserve Bank does start cutting in November of this year,
if it's only twenty five basis points, and we've got
to wait, you know, a full year until we see
or maybe longer until we see one hundred basis points
off that OCRs that stands right now, then that's still

(01:29:19):
a lot more pain in the economy. It's a delicate
balance for the Reserve Bank as they try and make
sure they don't breathe too much life back into economic activity.
If you want to fix us a text ninety two
ninety two is our text number. You can email me
as well. Jacket used it ZB dot CO dot NZ.
Three point three percent is our inflation rate. It is
just two percent in the UK. However, whose economy would

(01:29:42):
you rather have? Right now? There's a whole lot of
pressure on England's Central Bank to start cutting rates much
more aggressively as well. We'll take you there in a
couple of minutes. Right now, it's just coming up to
seventeen to seven.

Speaker 1 (01:29:54):
Scrunching the numbers and getting the results.

Speaker 2 (01:29:56):
It's Jack Team with the Business Hour thanks to so
my HR the HL platform for SME on News Talks.

Speaker 3 (01:30:03):
EDB is a quarter to seven on News talks 'B.
Time to catch up with UK correspondent Gavin Gray, who
joins us from outside Westminster this evening.

Speaker 21 (01:30:12):
Kyodo, Hi there, Jack, Yes, I did, and indeed a
very busy day ahead as well.

Speaker 3 (01:30:19):
Yeah, a lot of laws on the statutes are there.
Very exciting day. We'll get to that in a couple
of minutes. And some of the big changes that Kastama's
government are trying to push through. But as New Zealand
gets its latest inflation data. The UK's inflation rate is
making us all feel just a little bit envious. So
the inflation rate in the UK right now unchanged at

(01:30:39):
two percent, which of course is dead on target. So
what is this going to mean for interest rates?

Speaker 21 (01:30:44):
Yeah, very big question. Lots of pressure I think now
on the Bank of England to bring those interest rates
down there at a sixteen year high of five and
a quarter percent. They were used pretty much as a
tool keeping interest rates, raising interest rates to control inflation,
inflation which had been double digit back down to two
percent staying at two percent. However, I think actually analysts

(01:31:06):
were slightly disappointed. They thought it was going to drop
a little further, particularly in one or two of the
service sectors and other measurements of inflation. So I think
they're slightly disappointed about that.

Speaker 6 (01:31:17):
Apparently, what kept.

Speaker 21 (01:31:18):
Inflation at the two percent was, although most things are dropped,
believe it or not, hotel stays had increased in prices,
so anyone coming to visit might need to bear that
in mind. Tomorrow we get the employment figures, and then
at the first of August that decision from the Bank
of England where many people with mortgages will be hoping
those rates are coming down.

Speaker 3 (01:31:38):
To talk us through that again, so the Bank of
England's going to be making your decision thee And to
be totally clear, here in New Zealand we get quarterly
inflation data, so we only get an update every three months.
In the UK. Just how regularly do you get your
inflation data? Do you get your inflation data every month? Given?

Speaker 21 (01:32:00):
Yes, that's right, always roughly at the same sort of
time in the month. And the inflation with the employment
figures they're now trying to bring out on the first
of every month. And it's the Bank of England setting
those interest rates that most people look forward to, and
as I said, they're coming out at the first of Allgant.

Speaker 3 (01:32:17):
And so Gavin, how do people generally structure their mortgages
in the UK? Here in New Zealand, I think most
people look to structure their mortgages over fixed term periods,
which means that even once the central Bank decides to
cut or increase rates, there is a bit of a
lag until people switch from whatever fixed term they are

(01:32:38):
on now and to the fixed term under a new
interest rate. Certainly that is the case for the majority
of people's family homes. For example, how do people in
the UK generally structure their homelines?

Speaker 21 (01:32:51):
There are so many different offers now, Jack is quite extraordinary.
When I got my first mortgage, it was very strictly
limited really to just about a does and different things
you could go for. There are lot now. I think
what's become very popular are yes, those fixed knowing what
you're going to be paying, but at the moment, of course,
because interest rates are high, you're going to be paying
a lot of money. So a lot of people coming

(01:33:13):
off the fixed going to the variable and also early
payback without penalty.

Speaker 3 (01:33:17):
That's very popular, right, Yeah, So you talked to us
about some of the laws that this new government of
Kia Stamers is prioritizing and looking to pass thirty five
new laws proposed, including a crackdown on shoplifting.

Speaker 21 (01:33:34):
Yes, that's right. So the king speech is due to
take place in a couple of hours unveiling some thirty
five pieces of legislation and shoplifting is due to be
up there and basically the previous government in twenty fourteen
past the law that meant low value thefts worth under
four hundred Australian dollars were subject to much less serious punishment. Indeed,

(01:33:54):
the police really weren't that interested unless it was a
larger theft than that. This government looking to overhaul that
completely change that with a new CRUTB Bill and also
to make life much easier for the police to investigate
and work with retailers to sort these offenses out. It's
going to prove very popular. Do you know It's shoplifting
cost retailers three point eight billion New Zealand dollars in

(01:34:17):
the last year, and of course who's paying for that? Well,
the answer is all the other responsible and paying public
who buy from that particular shop.

Speaker 3 (01:34:26):
Yeah, yeah, exactly. And Gavin Sniffer dogs in Ecuador have
found more than six tons of cocaine hidden in a
banana shipment distant for Germany.

Speaker 21 (01:34:38):
Can you believe it? Five thousand, six hundred and thirty
parcels jack filled with a white substance later tested positive
for cocaine. The shipment was destined, as you say, for Germany,
we're not quite short which port. But this is a
massive boost to those trying to crack down but also
I think an indication on the sheer scale of the trade.
Had the six and a quarter ton of cocaine ridged

(01:35:01):
its destination, it would have been worth bordering on getting
up to half a billion New Zealand dollars. Quite extraordinary.
Five people arrested following the discovery, and it was in
a deep water southwest of the Ecuador's largest city, a
deep water port, that these parcels were found hidden beneath

(01:35:21):
these crates of bananas that were destined for legitimate export.
So quite a major achievement there, and plenty of people
now looking at Ecuador from Europe as a place to
perhaps concentrate those police investigative resources.

Speaker 3 (01:35:34):
Yeah, yeah, that's very interesting. Thank you so much, Gavin,
really appreciate it. That is UK correspondent Gavin Gray a
lot of attention on Ecuador. But it is interesting because
in some parts of South America that have been most
traditionally associated with the cocaine trade, they are seeing a
coca leaf glut of sorts. So it's not necessarily a

(01:35:55):
cocaine glut, but a coca leaf glut. The cartels that
usually drove a lot of the business in really rural
and remote parts of Colombia, for example, have turned their
business attention to other things as well. So, for example,
if you can make however much money trafficking, producing and
trafficking cocaine, but you can make three times as much

(01:36:18):
by trafficking people through the Darien Gap in the north
of Columbia up and through the migrant trains through Central
America on their way to the US, then why would
you be focused on cocaine? And over the last six
months or so, they reckon there has been a huge,
huge surge in the number of very small coca producers

(01:36:38):
who think that it is no longer a financially tenable
option for them. So these are people in rural communities
in Columbia who basically say, yep, we've been subsistence farmers
growing coca leaves, selling them to organizations that are linked
to the drug cartels. But actually it doesn't make sense
for us to do this anymore. It's not economic and
if we're going to get by, we're going to have

(01:36:58):
to move to the cities instead. So so yeah, really
intriguing to consider some of those dynamics at play. Right now,
it is eight minutes to seven. You were Jack Tame,
This is news. Doorg's hedb.

Speaker 1 (01:37:08):
Whether it's macro, micro or just plain economics.

Speaker 2 (01:37:12):
It's all on the Business Hour with Heather Duplicy Ellen
and my HR, the HR platform.

Speaker 1 (01:37:17):
For SME neustorgsb.

Speaker 3 (01:37:21):
News Talks. He'd be thank you very much for your
texts and communications this evening, Jack stopping so negative. Come on,
Inflation going down is great news. It is news that
all of New Zealand needs have been through so much.
You've got to realize that I don't know how you've
got me wrong on this one. I could not be
more delighted to see inflation heading in the right direction,
especially given I mean that the economists heading into today,

(01:37:44):
the big bank economists were kind of mixed in their expectations.
I think a couple of the banks were picking a
three point three, but most of them had it somewhere higher,
as high as a three point five, maybe even a
three point six for annualized in fation. Is that as
that baseline figure? But I think three point three is certainly,
if not point for celebration or cause for celebration, cause

(01:38:06):
for optimism at the very least right heading into the
reserve banks next couple of big decisions on the official
cash rate. Thank you very much for your feedback. Thanks
to my wonderful producers, Ants and Andy for doing the
tough stuff this evening, as has chosen a final song
for us. Why have we got Aunt Maggie May by
Rod Stewart to play us out tonight? Sir Rod Stewart

(01:38:28):
is doing something that I have kind of always wanted
to do, and that he is going to His birthday
is going to be more like a birthday week or
actually several birthdaysks. Okay, so like a birthday tour kind
of Yeah?

Speaker 9 (01:38:38):
Yeah, like literally, So his birthday is actually in January,
so he's very much getting planning underway nice and early.

Speaker 3 (01:38:45):
Is it a significant birthday? Well, he's going to be eighty,
so yeah, is he really? Yeah, he's going to be eighty.

Speaker 9 (01:38:50):
So it's a big one and they're going to start
in Florida and then him and the family, Penny Lancaster
and the rest of them are going to go on
a big ship together all round the Caribbean, so that
like it will literally be a birthday tour.

Speaker 3 (01:39:01):
There you go, hang on, when you say a big ship,
is this like a like a that's what That's.

Speaker 9 (01:39:06):
What Penny Lancaster is quoted as saying, big ship.

Speaker 3 (01:39:08):
So I would I would think cruise ship. You're right,
it could be a cargo ship. Might are they like
they can they are then the sort of billionaire class
where they can go on with there's ridiculous you know,
like super liner kind of things, like a Jeff Bezos super.

Speaker 9 (01:39:22):
I can probably hire out a cruise ship just for them,
like have the whole thing for themselves.

Speaker 3 (01:39:26):
Just feel like it would be kind of classic if
he hired out an entire cruise ship. Would you hire
a sailing ship?

Speaker 4 (01:39:32):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:39:32):
I mean didn't he sing sailing as well?

Speaker 4 (01:39:34):
Maybe that? Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:39:34):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, very good because hey, thank you so
much for that. As Happy birthday to mister Rod Stewart.
When he gets to eighty, Elliott Smith is going to
take you through the evening with sports talk on News Talks.
He'd be I am back with you Nick tomorrow afternoon
from four o'clock until then, News is next. Have a
wonderful evening.

Speaker 2 (01:39:59):
For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
News Talks ed B from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio

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