Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on the NZX 50 going up 6 percent in the past month

New Zealand's share market is taking a turn for the better.

New data indicates the NZX 50 has gone up by almost 6 percent in the past month - and economists are feeling optimistic about this reporting season.

NZ Herald business editor at large Liam Dann explains this change in direction.

LISTEN ABOVE

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Liam Dan, the Herald's business editor at Larges with me
at the moment. Hey dam good. So the INSIDEX fifty
is up about six percent in the past month.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
Why, yeah, well, I guess it's all to do with
the interest rates starting to turn and all that optimism
and green shoots that we're talking about. So what happens is,
you know, the last time it really boomed was with
all that COVID stimulus. Money was there and interest rates
were extremely low, and it's been tracking sideways since about
twenty twenty one. But yeah, it's finally gone past the

(00:30):
point about twelve thousand odds on the index where it
was on February twenty one, twenty twenty when it collapsed
you started going weird with COVID, and it's at its
highest point in two years. And yeah, it's suddenly looking
like a more interesting place. You've got the warehouse takeover play. Obviously,
Stephen Tindall's got a big plan and everything, but still

(00:52):
the timing is not a coincidence. Warehouse was very cheap,
and you've got Arvida, the retirement village operator that's often
red to property retirement villages, and so that's a play
and look there are people in the market suggesting that
we may see more of this because you know, in
these cycles, yeah, because what happens is the smart money

(01:12):
sits on the sides during the bit when interest rates
are high and you're doing all right with it sitting
in the bank, and the share price the shares don't
do so well, and then as soon as they see
the first glimmer of hope that that's turning, which is
ahead of you know, the economy is terrible still, but
there are signs of life out there. The signs of
life are what they're looking for in the turn of

(01:33):
the cycle. And then countercyclical I guess is what you
call it. They're starting to come in.

Speaker 1 (01:39):
Do we know what sectors we're going to be talking about.

Speaker 2 (01:41):
Well, I think anything with like people are talking about
the retirement village sector or each other players, retail and property.
These are sectors that have really struggled and there is
presumably some bargains out there in the in the eyes
of shear market investors, it is complicated a little bit
by the US because they've got a tech bubble. The

(02:02):
same things happened in the US with the bulk of
the stock So if you look at the bulk of
the S and P five hundred. It's also been in
the doldrums and should start to pick up. But there's
about seven stocks in the US and Video and Meta
and Tesla and Google Alphabet, the amazing seven or magnificent seven. Yeah,

(02:24):
and they have really propped up everything for the last
two years, and so they're unfortunately they're on the brink
of everyone talking about a bubble, and so you could
see them collapse, but you should also hopefully they don't collapse.
Hopefully they just come off gently and we see the
real world stocks, you know, the retailers and the manufacturers

(02:44):
and all that sort of thing ought to start coming
back in the US as well. So yeah, it's just
just suddenly noticed that there's a bit of action out there,
and there's a bit of excitement in the markets about
this because this is what this is what the sheer
investors wait for, the really sharp players.

Speaker 1 (03:01):
Yeah, totally. Hey, listen, by the way, on interest rates,
which you mentioned just before, when are you picking the cup? Then?

Speaker 2 (03:07):
Well, I don't think it can be August, I think,
but I I look the just the banks have moved
already a little bit, and that might have done a little.

Speaker 1 (03:15):
Bit of a job. Not August. Are you saying October
could be? I just want to remind you that I've
been saying November to you, Liam for the longest time.
Me you'd be telling me I'm wrong, and now.

Speaker 2 (03:23):
Look yeah, well yeah, the things turned fat in No,
I think I think. Yeah. I mean, if you if
you go through all the ups and downs, it's about
where we started, where we thought it would be at
the start of the year.

Speaker 1 (03:33):
Oh oh, is that what you're doing? Are you saying
you called this ages go and then changed your mind.
Now you're going back to your original one?

Speaker 2 (03:38):
Yea yeah, oh okay, yeah, absolutely.

Speaker 1 (03:40):
Well I can't just prove that, so I'm going to
have to just.

Speaker 2 (03:42):
Re could you probably go through all my columns?

Speaker 1 (03:45):
Actually, now that I've thought now, I'm going to do
a word search for you columns and fine, fine.

Speaker 2 (03:48):
No, I'll tell you what I did call I called
a seven percent interest rate peak about two years ago,
and that's where we landed.

Speaker 1 (03:54):
Okay, well you can have that one then, Thank you.
Le I don't know why this has turned into a
weird competition between us, but I am to blame for that. Liam.
Thank you, Liam, Dan the Herald's Business editor at large.

Speaker 2 (04:03):
For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
News Talks at B from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio