Brad Olsen: Infometrics principal economist unpacks how chief financial officers feel about New Zealand's business outlook

New Zealand's chief financial officers have revealed their thoughts in a first of its kind survey.

Hunter Campbell's report reveals 42 percent expect challenging conditions with positive opportunities over the next year.

The survey also revealed 41 percent of CFOs met or exceeded their revenue growth target in 2024.

Infometrics Brad Olsen says they provided a range of concerns including costs, regulation, infrastructure and crime.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now, a new survey of chief financial offices shows there's
some positivity for the year ahead. The inaugural Hunter Campbell
Mood of the CFO survey shows thirty percent of CFOs
feel upbeat about upcoming company performance. Infametric's principal economist Brad
Olson is all over this high.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
Brad, good evening.

Speaker 1 (00:16):
Were you surprised to see this level of positivity.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
A little bit? I mean, both in terms of expectations
for the year ahead, but actually just looking at how
activity has gone for a lot of companies over the
last year. You know, some of the CFOs that were
interviewed suggested that, yes, it's been tough. Twenty one percent
of their revenue had declined, twenty nine said their profitability
had declined. And I think the difference in those numbers
sort of suggest, you know that obviously costs are still

(00:43):
playing a part, but the fact that thirty percentury the
upbeat or bullish about company expectations for the year ahead,
I think does reinforce what you've seen in other surveys
and other indicators that actually, you know, there is a
bit of a bit more optimism coming through in the
business community about better things to come.

Speaker 1 (00:58):
Yeah, now, I mean, obviously thirty percent and feeling great
does mean that seventy percent, So what's going on there?

Speaker 2 (01:04):
Well, Equally, when we sort of look through some of
those figures, you've got sort of thirty percent that are
either upbeat or bullish. You've got sort of the bulk
in the middle who are sort of going, look, we
think that things will be okay, we'll either hold still
or will grow but maybe not had our growth expectations,
or you know, will grow but we might have our
expectations but not really sort of plow through them. But

(01:25):
I think it does sort of suggest if you look
at the numbers who are reporting that they think things
are going to get worse from where they are here,
it's still sort of in an all right position.

Speaker 1 (01:34):
So what is it that they are saying specifically that
they're worried about.

Speaker 2 (01:38):
I mean, there's still a range of concerns out there.
I mean, obviously, costs are still a big part of it,
and I mean, you know, I think there's been a
lot of confidence that the lowering of the official cash
rate has provided to them. Also interesting is what they're
asking for from politicians. Some of it is the usual stuff,
you know, they want less regulation and sort of policies

(01:59):
that support more productive outcomes. You know, they don't want
to be dealing in red tape every day. They want
sort of, you know, the right tax settings so people
get on and go to work and do that productive stuff.
But sort of almost surprisingly for CFOs, you know, everyone
thinks of them from a very traditional finance point of view,
but you know that this Hunter Campbell now says highlights
that actually there's things around the likes of the cost

(02:21):
of living, about crime rates, around utility bills and similar
You know, there is a much greater focus I think
on people and talent from CFOs at the moment. They
do care a lot more about the staff that they're
looking after. They're having to be a lot more proactive
about that, and in fact, they're actually still worried about
talent despite the fact the unemployment rates going up, and
I think that highlights that we still have a skills mismatch.

(02:43):
There's still some good talent needed in the finance space
at the minute.

Speaker 1 (02:47):
Brad, I know you love your infrastructure. What did you
make of the announcement yesterday?

Speaker 2 (02:51):
Oh, look, I think it's encouraging to see that, you know,
all of that money being spent going forward on infrastructure,
and certainly some of those areas that you know do
desperately need it. I'm an Northander, I know how challenging
it is when the brend Dowins go out, So you know,
some of those investments are encouraging. The tricky thing looking
through the document is going to be there is a
lot of commitment to spend money, there is not a

(03:12):
huge amount of that money into the future years that's
going space. So at some point we're going to have
to decide do we want to sit in traffic, do
we want to have you know, congestion running through or
are we happy to pay tolls or taxes or something
because we've got to get better quality infrastructure.

Speaker 1 (03:26):
Yeah, fair enough. Hey, Brad, thank you as always really appreciated.
That's Brad Olson, Informetric Principle Economist.

Speaker 2 (03:32):
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