Geoffrey Miller: geopolitical analyst on the escalating aggression between Israel and Hezbollah

A geopolitical expert says the latest aggression in the war between Israel and Hezbollah has an air of 'inevitability'.

Israel has reportedly killed almost 500 in air strikes and injured 1600 in the deadliest day in Lebanon since 2006.

Israel's Defence Force says its mission is to stop the Iran-backed Hezbollah firing rockets into Israel's north and to push it back from the border.

Foreign policy analyst Geoffrey Miller says they've been heading this way for some time.

"There has been a level of inevitability about this - and this just takes it up a notch further. It's a huge death toll."

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
A major escalation in the Middle East overnight, with Israeli
air strikes on Lebanon killing around five hundred people and
thirty five of them were kids, and a whole bunch
more thousands were injured. Israel attacked hundreds of Hezbola weapons
storage facilities, leading them to the deadliest day since the
Civil War in nineteen ninety.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
Now.

Speaker 1 (00:15):
Jeffrey Miller is a geopolitical analyst.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
Hey, Jeffrey, good evening, Heather.

Speaker 1 (00:20):
Is it inevitable that they are headed for a full
scale war?

Speaker 2 (00:24):
Look, I think we've been heading this way since October
the seventh last year, October the eighth, when the first
air strikes from Lebanon really began, the rocket attacks from Lebanon,
and you know, unfortunately, there has been a level of
inevitability about this, and this just takes it up a
notch further though. I mean, it's a huge death toll

(00:45):
in a single day, almost five hundred people killed, you know,
to put that in context, in the entire thirty four
day war back in two thousand and six between Israel
than Lebanon, thirteen hundred Lebanese individuals were killed. So we're
already at a that or more than a third of
that in just a single day.

Speaker 1 (01:02):
What happens next? Do you think that there's retaliation.

Speaker 2 (01:06):
Look, we've been waiting for retaliation since July really, when
his commander for Choga was killed. Israel killed another one
last week in the aftermath of those pager attacks. I mean,
there's plenty of reasons for retaliation from his and from
Iran directly, and I think there are various plans that
are being made, but yet they're unable to carry them out.

(01:29):
Israel has very very good intelligence. Clearly they conducted thirteen
hundred strikes yesterday or they attacked thirteen hundred targets. I
should say they've got very good intelligence. They know what
they're looking for, and as we saw last week with
those pager attacks, they're not afraid now to the audacious.
So I don't think it's through a lack of a

(01:52):
lack of desire that his Balaaren is not responding to
what Israel is doing here. But they're just being foiled
at every turn, and I think that's preps the risk
here for Israel in the end his BLA. If they
keep trying, they will probably break through and then we
end up with the all out war between Israel and

(02:12):
his Balla that we've been trying to avoid. So I
think dangerous times ahead. It does seem all very ominous.
It already is bad. It is a very bad situation.
It could only get worse. And I think we also
need to remember that his Bela is not Hamas. Hisbela
is very very well armed, very very well capable. They're
much closer to Iran by the virtue of being a
sheer group. They've got fifty thousand fighters, one hundred and

(02:36):
fifty thousand rockets, and they're more They're better armed than
many many governments, many states are in the Middle East.
So it's a different kettle of fish here.

Speaker 1 (02:45):
Yeah, altogether, Hey, thank you very much. Jeffrey appreciated Jeffy
Miller geopolitical Analysts.

Speaker 2 (02:50):
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