Robert Patman: Otago University Professor for International Relations on Israel launching a ground offensive into Lebanon

Hostilities are running high - and fear's rising for the future - as Israel launches a ground offensive into southern Lebanon. 

Lebanon says Israeli attacks in the past two weeks have already killed more than a thousand people. 

Otago University international relations professor Robert Patman says the recent pummelling of Hezbollah has severely degraded the militant group.

He says backing from the US is helping Israel keep the upper hand over resistance groups. 

"But also - the loss of civilians in Lebanon, as well as the loss of civilians in Gaza, is fuelling anti-Israeli feelings which are going to have long-term consequences." 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Israel's Defense Force says it has begun a quote limited
localized ground defensive against his baller targets in southern Lebanon,
opening a new front in the Middle East conflict. The
IDF release a statement saying it's targets were located in
villages close to the border that posed an immediate threat
to Israeli communities. International relations expert from Otago University, Robert Patman,

(00:22):
is with us this evening. Just how significant is this, Robert, Oh.

Speaker 2 (00:26):
Good any Jack. I think it's very significant, and it
shows what many people fear that the gals a conflict,
which is at the root of the problem at the moment,
always had the potential to culminate in a wider regional war,
and will begin to see this now. And the interesting
thing is, if you look at the Israeli in cursion today,
it's quite similar to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon June

(00:49):
eighty two, in that both that they both had their
roots in the Palestinian Israeli conflict, much as the fighting
does between has Bulla and Israel today, and that is
really the root of the problem. It seems to me, what.

Speaker 1 (01:04):
Kind of retaliation should we expect from Hisbola.

Speaker 2 (01:09):
Well, it's clearly been I think severely degraded by the
pummeling they've taken. They've been on the receiving end of
exploding communications devices as well as air strikes. They've lost
their leader. So yes, I think they're going to be
militarily in retreat, but there's not a military you know.

(01:32):
Gat Ever, greater applications of military power is not going
to solve the political problem that Israel faces and you know,
for the next six months. I think Israel, with its backing,
generous backing from the most powerful country in world, the
United States, has the upper hand against groups like the
Whotis has Bulla and of course in Gaza. But that

(01:56):
is also particularly the loss of civilians in Lebanon as
well as the loss of civilians in Gaza is fueling
anti Israeli feelings which you know are going to have
long term consequences.

Speaker 1 (02:09):
Unfortunately, is this still concern about Iran getting involved? How
likely is that?

Speaker 2 (02:16):
It can't be ruled out? But I think the Iranians
have been very cautious so far around although it's a
big power, big in regional terms, a country of more
than one hundred million it's certainly supporting groups like the
Whoties and has Bulla, and I think it will certainly

(02:37):
try to, if you like, support these proxy groups or
partner groups, depending on your terminology. I don't think it
would want to get directly involved, and it would probably
recognize that if it did get directly involved in the
United States might escalate its own involvement from going from
a generous supporter of Israel to actually involved itself. So

(03:00):
I think both ironically, both Iran and America want to
stay out of this escalating situation. But as we've seen
jack with previous conflicts, it's not the intentions of the
parties that determine events. Sometimes events have, if you like,
become inadvertent that conflicts, you know, do not always go

(03:20):
according the plan, and the fog of war occurs and
we get unintended consequences. And this is what is so
dangerous about this situation, with Israel effectively invading a sovereign country,
bombing the capital against terror targets. But this has far
reaching consequences, and you know, the experience of Israel in

(03:43):
nineteen eighty two must be sobering. Hes Bulla was born
out of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and now it's
re entered Lebanon to deal with you know, the leadership
of Hesbulla, which had its origins in the previous incursion.

Speaker 1 (04:01):
Thanks for your time and expertise, as always we appreciate it.
That is Professor Robert Pateman from Otago University. For more
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