Bren Carlill: Australia/Israel and Jewish Affairs Council policy analyst calls for intervention to end Middle East conflict

There's hopes that the US will step in soon to de-escalate Middle East tensions. 

Iran has launched nearly 200 missiles at Israel, with most being intercepted.

Israel is promising consequences while continuing airstrikes - and yesterday, forces invaded Lebanon.

The Australia/Israel and Jewish Affairs Council says strong intervention is the only way to end the cycle.

Policy analyst Bren Carlill says Iran's weak military could be swiftly subdued. 

"Were the US to send a couple of missiles at, say, an Iranian drone-making factory or an Iranian missile factory - I think Iran would get the message and very quickly realise it needs to step back." 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well, the situation in the Middle East is escalating quickly.
Just a day after Israel's ground offensive in Lebanon, Iran
has launched nearly two hundred missiles at Israel, most of
which were intercepted. Israeli Prime Minister Ben Yamnett Yaho says
Iran has quote made a big mistake and we'll pay
for it. Brinkardil is a policy analyst at the Australia

(00:20):
Israel and Jewish Affairs Council, and is with us this.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
Evening, good evening, good away, Yeah.

Speaker 1 (00:25):
Very well, thank you. So. Israel says a zion dome
system has intercepted and protected civilians from the missiles. But
Iran state televisions is ninety percent of them hit their targets.
So which party is right?

Speaker 2 (00:38):
I think we'll probably find out in the next couple
of days. Certainly there were impacts in Israel, which I've
been looking all day. I haven't been able to find
out how many. But Israel has said that only two
Israelis and one two Israelis were injured and one Palestinian
was killed in the attack. And Israel's not the kind

(01:00):
of country where they would cover up deaths of civilians.
Or deaths of soldiers at the army basis that were targeted.
So I think the attack was not as successful or
wasn't anywhere near as successful as Iran hoped.

Speaker 1 (01:14):
So Binyam and Nina who says Israel will respond. If
Israel responds, presumably Iran will respond to that response, and
we get stuck in a cycle. How do we break it?

Speaker 2 (01:25):
I think we break it with the US. Iran actually
has a very weak military, which is the reason why
it's invested so heavy in proxy militias around them, at
least including obviously has Belaved, also Hamas and various militias
in Yemen and Iraq, and obviously it's missile program as well.
But were the US to step in and send a

(01:49):
couple of missiles at say an Iranian drone making factory
or an Iranian missile factory, I think Iran would get
the message very quickly that it needs to step back.
That's I'm hoping will happen in the next couple of days.

Speaker 1 (02:02):
What is the likelihood do you think that the US
will do that?

Speaker 2 (02:08):
It's hard to predict. I think relatively good. Obviously, the
US is in an election cycle and the Republicans would
want a strong response, and they'll be asking for that,
so it might be electorally a good idea for Biden
to do a strike such as that. I'm not talking
war against Iran. I'm talking a limited point missile strike

(02:31):
because I think that will make Harris and the Democrats
look strong, which will which will help them electorally.

Speaker 1 (02:36):
Yeah, how do other countries avoid getting involved in this? If?
If the US is involved, inevitably are countries like Australia
and even New Zealand involved in some way.

Speaker 2 (02:45):
Too, Certainly not militarily, I don't think so. I do think, however,
that Iran needs to be sent a message. Now. The
US can send Iran a military message, but I think
Western countries should send Iran a diplomatic message.

Speaker 1 (03:02):
Now.

Speaker 2 (03:02):
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards CALL, which is like the elite
unit of the Iranian military. They are prescribed in America
as a terrorist organization because they because they conduct terrorist
attacks around the world, but they are also in charge
of Iran's missile program, and so they conducted the attack
over night. It were Australia or New Zealand or the

(03:25):
other five eys countries or other Western countries generally were
to prescribe the IIGC as a terrorist organization. I think
that would send a very clear and strong diplomatic methods
to Iran that the West is starting to hold Iran
accountable for its malfeasants around the world as relive around
the Middle East.

Speaker 1 (03:44):
Thanks for your time, Brin, we appreciate it. That is,
bring Carlil for more from Hither Dupless thee Allan Drive.
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