Full Show Podcast: 09 October 2024

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Pressing the newsmakers to get the real story.

Speaker 2 (00:04):
It's Jack tame On, Hither Duplicy allan drive with one
New Zealand, Let's get connected new Storg said.

Speaker 3 (00:11):
B newsk said B. Jack tam in the hot seat
for Heather Duplicity Alan. Before five o'clock this evening, we
will take you to ground zero as this enormous hurricane
makes its way to the United States. Tampa is under

(00:32):
an evacuation order. Millions of people in the potential path
of this hurricane now fleeing, and some of the numbers
behind it they begar belief. I mean they say that
if there could be a category six hurricane, this would
be a category six hurricanes. So I'm going to give
you the details on that very shortly. Let you know
when it is due to make landfall. We'll take a
close look at the ocr and speaking of America and

(00:54):
big things in America, Cinnabon is headed to New Zealand.
All the details very shortly.

Speaker 4 (01:00):
Now.

Speaker 3 (01:00):
It's eight past four, Jack Team. So I fixed my
entire mortgage in three weeks time, right. I had one
that was coming off like an eighteen month thing, one
that was coming off A couple of years or whatever,
the whole thing gets refixed in three weeks time, and
so I find myself with the curious kind of conundrum
that I think most of us with bog standard family

(01:21):
home mortgages could not have imagined at any point in
the last few years. At two o'clock, I waited for
the email to land from the Monetary Policy Committee. I
speed read the Reserve Bank statement and found myself left
with a simple question. Instead of fixing my mortgage at
the end of this month, am I better to roll
the dice float for four or five weeks and hold

(01:43):
out for another cut in November? Fifty basis points is
a meaningful cut, So I did back of the envelope
sums if you've got a four hundred thousand dollars mortgage
and you're coming off, say a seven point two onto
the market leading five point seven being advert tires for
a one year mortgage today, that is a difference of

(02:03):
five hundred bucks a month in your back pocket. And
what's clear from the Reserve Bank's comments is that, like
it was on the way up, the cutting cycle is
still likely to have disproportioned impacts depending on different circumstances.
As the ocr comes down. Our economy is growing, international
growth is slowing. In the Middle East conflict has the

(02:23):
potential to cause a global oil shock, and with an
unemployment rate that lags the cash rate cycle, we could
still add the best part of one hundred basis points
maybe to our unemployment rate. It's at four point six
right now. Treasury and the Reserve Bank thought would be
well above five come the middle of next year. The

(02:44):
Reserve Bank might be cutting faster than they anticipated just
a few months ago, but it certainly won't come nearly
fast enough for many thousands of New Zealanders who are
likely going to lose their jobs over the next few months.
The NPS in November is the last cash rate decision
for twenty two twenty four and the last for the
best part of three months. My period for the pick
for the time, My pick for the period between now

(03:07):
and then is that calls for more significant cuts, maybe
even to something akin to the neutral cash rate, will
only continue to intensify. Our economy might have a taste
of relief, but it is crying out for so so
much more.

Speaker 1 (03:22):
Jack Team nine.

Speaker 3 (03:24):
Nine two is our text number. Don't forget that if
you're sending us a text standard text cost supply. You
can email me as well, jacket newstalks. He'db dot co
dot NZ. It's ten past four. Two former members of
a committee that is tasked with checking over assisted deaths
to ensure that the law has worked as it should
say the system is broken and they wouldn't have known
if someone had wrongly died. Doctors Jane Greville and Danna

(03:45):
Wensley repeated repeatedly raised concerns about incomplete information regarding a
patient's health and the risk of coercion. In one case,
a patient with suspected dementia who couldn't speak English was
apparently approved for assisted dying without a trans Later in
the room, ACT leader David Seymour was, of course, a
major proponent for the end of Life Choice Act Enders

(04:06):
with us now got a good afternoon, Good afternoon, What
do you think of these concerns?

Speaker 5 (04:12):
Well, first of all, these are two people that sound
somewhat aggrieved, and I'd want to know the full story.
But on the face of it, the law that I
helped make five years ago said that a physician must
communicate with the person who's seeking assisted dying at regular

(04:33):
intervals suitable to the progression of their illness. Now it
is I guess possible that in some cases you might
not communicate verbally, such as if that person was unable
to talk. However, you'd certainly want to inquire and investigate

(04:53):
how somebody could do that if they didn't have the
same language or a translator. But I think it's a
little unfair to say that there's no way to investigate that.
I just checked the annual report for the year two
during this year and it says that there are twenty
two complaints. There are three that remain ongoing at the

(05:15):
time of the twenty twenty four report, and of those,
by far the most common complaint was people being obstructed
from trying to get access to assisted dying. When they say, oh,
there's not enough information and there's no way that people
can find out what's going on through this process. Well,

(05:36):
you know, people frequently make complaints overwhelmingly that are closed
in a short period of time. Mostly actually people are
not being able to get access to assisted dying when
they want it to.

Speaker 3 (05:48):
Be clear, though, physicians don't have to be involved in
end of life choice if they choose not to do
and an assisted dying if they choose not to to
be on this panel operating in the roles that these
two doctors were operating in. Did they have to be
supporters of the Act in the first place?

Speaker 5 (06:06):
No, it would be improper to ask about someone's political
position before appointing them to any government entity. But you
would hope that if they stepped up, then they would
at least be an agreement that it's a legitimate choice
for people to make, and prepared to administer the law

(06:27):
to the best of their abilities.

Speaker 3 (06:28):
Well, that's my point. But it's not necessarily a political perspective,
but rather a question of conscience, right, And it's not
your understanding that in order to be on this oversight
committee that they actually had to necessarily support end of
life choice and principle.

Speaker 5 (06:46):
Well, no, Look, I've actually been involved in appointing new
people to the committee. I've had people put forward by
the Ministry of Health and recommended to me, and I've
certainly had a look at their credit and what sort
of qualifications they have, whether they've made any public statements

(07:06):
for or against it, Because you certainly wouldn't want to
appoint someone who was one of these diet and the
Wall opponents who sought to be appointed in order to
obstruct people from accessing what they have a right to
access under the law. But I certainly would have thought
that the key thing is are they capable of doing
the job and are they doing it in good faith?

Speaker 3 (07:25):
Doctor Greville says that the committee was quote restrained to
the point of irrelevance. I know you said that the
Act was imperfect when it was introduced. Are they changes
you would make to the committee's overside?

Speaker 5 (07:39):
Look, I think it's important to acknowledge that one of
the things I put in the Act is the need
to have a review after the first three years, and
then every five years after that. So the first review
is happening now because the Act came into force in
November twenty twenty one. So the report will come out
next month on the first three years. And I'm you know,

(08:00):
I mean, I'm not responsible for the bill anymore. It's
been passed its own by everybody. But I certainly personally
would be open to listening to what people say and
making changes. I just if you don't mind me just
challenging one thing it's said there When I said it
was imperfect, I actually think that we made it overly restrictive.

(08:20):
In particular for political reasons to get the numbers to
pass it. I actually put a six month requirement, so
you have to have two doctors say you're likely to
die within six months. There's some people with conditions such
as Huntington's mode neuron disease long term degenerative diseases who
won't die within six months, but that just means that

(08:41):
they're suffering even more. I think they should have a choice.
And Todd Stevenson, whom you interviewed on your TV show
a few weeks ago, has actually brought a bill to
Parliament which I hope will be debated soon to actually
widen access in that regard. So when you say I
say it's imperfect, that that's the criticism I have my own.

Speaker 3 (09:02):
Yeah, no, sorry, I didn't mean. I wasn't trying to
resume you misrep visin you. I mean, yeah, you were
pretty clear about that at the time and felt that
that was a compromise that allowed the builder pass into law. Hey,
just for we let you go.

Speaker 5 (09:14):
I s are thoughts well, New Zealanders have finally got
off the nauseating rollercoaster of fiscal and monetary policy. I
thought your intro was very good. It's the start of relief,
but it is still going to take a while to
kick in, and people are making choices about when to

(09:34):
refix their mortgage rates and so on. For my money,
i'd go with a six month fix and just hedge
and see where they go for the next six months.
But you know, I don't think people should take that
sort of financial advice from politicians. Just as a disclaimer.
I think what's most important now is that we do
our job and continue to tighten our belt and find

(09:55):
efficiencies as a government, because every time the government overspends
all waste money that is competing with the private sector
with households and businesses, and they're really hurting. So we
still have our job to do containing our spending and
I think you'll see ongoing. Let's trained in the next
budget that allows the Reserve Bank to stop this roller

(10:17):
coaster where I think they pushed us too high for
too long, but they had to because they've gone too
low during COVID and now we're getting off that roller
coaster at the other end. Marshus and poor for the experience.

Speaker 3 (10:31):
Hey, thanks your Tom, We really appreciate it.

Speaker 5 (10:33):
Thank you.

Speaker 3 (10:34):
Heg Party leader David Seymour. Right now it is seventeen
minutes past four. Have your feedback in a couple of months.

Speaker 2 (10:40):
Digging deeper into the day's headlines, it's hither Dupas Allen
drive with one New Zealand one giant leaf for business,
US Dogs B Sport with tab get your bed on
our egem bed responsibly.

Speaker 3 (10:54):
Host of sports Talk Nick Bewley is and Weather's this
afternoon high make a big low for the Black As
to officially start the Tom Latham era as they make
their way to India.

Speaker 6 (11:04):
That's right, another entry in Caine Williamson's Hall of Pain Jack.
This time it's a groin niggle. It's going to delay
his departure with the New Zealand cricket squad for the
three Tests series against India. He's been rehabbing it since
suffering a bit of discomfort during the second Test match
loss against Srilanka that was just a few weeks ago.
He is expected to play at some points. Not all

(11:26):
doom and gloom, of course, kan Williamson suffered that serious
knee injury which kept him out for the best part
of six or nine months. So we've got Mark Chapman
into the squad He's never played a Test match, but
relatively familiar to the black Caps set up in terms
of the limited overs side. Will Young though probably goes
straight in as first drop, will get Sam Wells's thoughts.

(11:48):
He's the black Caps chief selector. He's going to join
us on Sports Talk tonight. I guess the other real
major talking point, although it was well signaled, is of
course Tim Southy relinquishing the Test capenetcy. The Tom Latham
era begins. But what is Tim? What is Tim Saudi's
role in this side now and particularly overseas on tours
like this against India when it's more suited to spin

(12:08):
rather than see him as Tim Saudi a guarantee to
be in there. Leave and we'll put those questions to
Sam a bit later.

Speaker 3 (12:13):
And Nick, one of the stars of the NPC, has
undergone emergency neck surgery.

Speaker 6 (12:18):
Yeh, scary story this and a major blow for Taranaki.
A hit of their MPC quarter final against Waikato that's
on Saturday, but the ran Philly Shield Challenge which Tartanaki
won on the weekend over Tasman. Their fullback Jaqbratu, Mitavuki Neapkins,
who's been having a whale of a season. He'll have
surgery on his fractured neck he suffered during that when

(12:39):
over Tasman, which of course is ruling him out of
the rest of the rugby year. I was a little
bit surprised, actually, Jack, when we've seen these that All
Blacks Development side named just yesterday that his name wasn't there,
and I thought, maybe something's up there. He's led the competition,
the NPC that is, but nine hundred and sixty seven
meters gain. He's a real threat with ball in hands.
So you just hope this isn't going to be a

(13:00):
real impact on his career going forward, because this is
a guy with a big future.

Speaker 3 (13:03):
Appreciate your time, Nick, Nick Buley will be with us
behind the mic for Sports Talk tonight right after the
seven o'clock news on News Talks. He'd be thank you
for your feedback.

Speaker 7 (13:10):
Jack.

Speaker 3 (13:11):
It's a no brainer, says Allen. You go floating until
the next OCR announcement, which is on the end of
next month, or until the bank drops rates in anticipation
of the next OCR. So Allen says, quote, it's a
no brainer. Paula says Jack, it's a no brainer. Do
six months. So Apparently everyone thinks it's a no brainer,
but unfortunately everyone's offering me a different advice here, Jack,

(13:32):
I would offer II we go for six months, which
will take you through late April twenty twenty five. Give
you two further OCR announcements next year. Hopefully in three
weeks time you'll be fixing somewhere down by six and
a half for six months. It's going to be really
interesting to see how the banks really react to today's
decision and see what they are forecasting for that final
OCR announcement of twenty twenty four coming at the end

(13:55):
of November. We're going to take a closer look at
that after five o'clock this evening, ninety two ninety two.
If you want to send us a two right now,
it's twenty three past four.

Speaker 2 (14:03):
Hard questions, strong opinion, Jack Dame on hither duplicy Eland drive?
Who is one New Zealand Let's get connected news talk
instead be.

Speaker 3 (14:12):
Thank you for your feedback. An email here says Jack,
I totally agree with you regarding the neutral rate. If
the CPI is anywhere near the target band or on
the lower part of the target band, it's hard to
see why the Reserve Bank wouldn't be cutting. Yeah, I
mean this I reckon this is going to be a really,
really prominent conversation over the next six weeks. So the
CPI data from statz Enz comes out next week. It

(14:34):
sort of feels like a funny way to do things, right.
You've got the OCR announcement this week. What they make
seven announcements for the OCI every year, and the Consumer
Price Index comes out next week, so you've got sort
of putting the cart before the horse. Anyway, they only
do the CPI quarterly, so I suppose you're never gonna
have a perfect kind of fit. But many economists are

(14:55):
picking that inflation could be down relatively near two percent,
maybe sub two point five percent, which is not just
within the one to three band, but getting awfully close
to that kind of neutral inflation level or that midpoint
in the band. And if that's the case, why shouldn't
it be a neutral ocier? I mean, why shouldn't we
be whipping off seventy five one hundred bases points come November.

(15:17):
We will take a look at that after four thirty
as well as that Hurricane Milton inches closer to the
Florida coast coming up very shortly we will take you
there to Tampa, where a few hardy residents have decided
to stay.

Speaker 2 (15:33):
Digging deeper into the day's headlines, it's Jack Dame on,
Heather Duplessy allan drive with one New Zealand let's get connected.

Speaker 1 (15:41):
Use talks.

Speaker 8 (15:41):
That'd be Vanilla Baby Baby twenty eight telling me I'm
still a baby, Love and the straight lace skill, a
baby and the thing A bunch of boys.

Speaker 3 (15:51):
Good Jackson's been rate drop means labor just lost the
twenty twenty six election year. When you thinking about people
who won't be celebrating the rate drop today are people
who don't have mortgages but do have a lot of
money and their savings right now, they're probably not celebrating.
And yes, opposition parties, as much as they might be
relieved to see a bit of pressure coming off individual
households when they think about their electoral prospects, maybe not

(16:12):
so enthusiastic. We're going to catch up with Core Logic
a little later in the show to find out what
today's announcement from the Reserve Bank is likely to mean
for the property market. If heading into summer, we're likely
to see a surge in interest and a surge in
house prices. Right now, though it is twenty five minutes
to five, it's.

Speaker 1 (16:31):
The world wires on news talks.

Speaker 3 (16:33):
They'd be drive and Hurricane Milton is bearing down on Florida.
With the storm turning back into a Category five. Authority
is filling Tropicana Field with kats a base camp for
first responders. Governor DeSantis mobilizing some eight thousand National Guard troops.

Speaker 2 (16:50):
This is probably the largest National Guard mobilization and advance
of a storm in Florida history.

Speaker 3 (16:58):
President Joe Biden wasn't mincing his.

Speaker 9 (17:01):
Under evacuation orders.

Speaker 4 (17:02):
You should evacuate now, now, now, you should have already evacuated.

Speaker 10 (17:07):
It's a matter of life and death and National High
Herd Way, It's a matter of life and death.

Speaker 3 (17:12):
Tampa is Mea was also seening out stern warnings.

Speaker 11 (17:15):
There's never been one like this, and this Helene was
a wake up call.

Speaker 12 (17:22):
This is literally catastrophic and I.

Speaker 13 (17:25):
Can say, without any dramatization whatsoever, if you choose to
stay in one of those evacuation areas, you're going to die.

Speaker 3 (17:34):
To the Middle East, now we have been JAMNITNYA, who
is promising to continue the war with a message for Lebanon.

Speaker 10 (17:41):
Israel has a right to defend itself. Israel also has
a right to win, and Israel willing we've degraded his
Balla's capabilities. We took up thousands of terrorists, including Osuela
himself and Aswelo's replacement and the replacement of his replacement.

Speaker 3 (17:57):
And finally, oh, I haven't heard this jam in a while.
A big man out of Oregon has gained a world
record for the most chest to ground burpees in an hour,
completing Oney twenty seven, beating the previous record by seventeen.
Better living everyone.

Speaker 2 (18:20):
International correspondence with ends and eye insurance, Peace of mind
for New Zealand business.

Speaker 3 (18:26):
As Hurricane Milton inches its way closer to land, we
will take in out of US correspondent Catherine Ferkin for
the latest scout of Catherine.

Speaker 14 (18:33):
Good afternoon, How are you very well?

Speaker 3 (18:36):
Thank you and glad that I am not in Florida
right now. This Hurricane Milton looks like an absolute monster
of behemoth. Are people heeding the evacuation warnings?

Speaker 2 (18:47):
Yeah?

Speaker 14 (18:47):
Absolutely, well generally people are. I mean it truly is
a dire situation here for millions of people in Milton's path.

Speaker 4 (18:54):
Jack.

Speaker 14 (18:55):
I mean, the latest information we have is that this
hurricane has re intensified to a had degree five. That
is a monster storm. It's currently whipping up winds of
more than two hundred and sixty five kilometers in the hour,
and frighteningly, it looks set to make a direct hit
on Tampa sometime in the next twenty four to thirty

(19:15):
six hours. Now, with the situation only getting worse, we
have seen those mandatory evacuations extended across much of Florida's
west coast. The thing that's just really truly tragic, I
think is that so many of these communities are only
just starting the cleanup after Hurricane Helene hit only a
fortnight ago. I've been looking at places like Treasure Island,

(19:37):
where people's homes are literally strewn across their front yards,
and the concern there is that all that debris and
building rubble and bits of furniture that's been tossed around
will now act like projectiles when Hurricane Milton hits. So
there's a real race there for authorities and residents to
try and clear the debris, secure their homes, but then

(19:58):
also get well away from the town and from that
west coast altogether. The big risk for people who choose
to stay in any of these low lying areas is,
of course the storm surge. They're predicting up to four
and a half meters of storm surge, and the message
from authorities is if that hits, it simply won't be survivable.
So people really do need to be heating these evacuation messages.

Speaker 3 (20:23):
It's interesting because hurricanes are so slow moving. It's this
really agonizing period where you are waiting for it to
make landfall. But what a forecast is saying is that
any possibility that this hurricane might actually move out to
seeing that the main land might be speared.

Speaker 14 (20:37):
Look, there is a possibility, it's not looking very likely
at the moment. Unfortunately, things just seem to be getting
worse and worse and worse. I mean, we're not expecting
it to hit as a category five. They're still hoping
it will de intensify down to probably a category three,
but the concern is that it's likely to double in size.

(20:58):
You know, they are slow moving, but they're also potentially
so deadly and so unpredictable. At the moment, we're even
expecting that areas further inland, like Orlando could be hit there.
Of course they're not going to get storm surge, but
they are at risk of potentially deadly flooding from rain.
They're expecting more than thirty centimeters in places like that,

(21:21):
So we really are expecting this is going to be chaotic.
Hopefully there's a bit of a miracle overnight here and
it does, you know, potentially go right off the coast,
but it's unfortunately not looking that way.

Speaker 3 (21:33):
Yeah. Now Donald Trump's interesting relationship with Vladimir Putin is
out in the open even more than beforehand, thanks to
once again a new book by Bob Woodwood.

Speaker 14 (21:45):
Yeah, these are really quite extraordinary claims from Bob Woodwood.
I mean, they suggest a much deeper and more close
relationship between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Then certainly the
former president would hope to present essentially in this new book,
journalist would says that Trump and Prusian continue to interact
after the former president left office, and that the two

(22:05):
leaders had as many as seven phone calls since twenty
twenty one.

Speaker 3 (22:10):
One of the other bombshell.

Speaker 14 (22:11):
Allegations in this book that's interesting is that supposedly there
was this secret shipment of COVID supplies since by Donald
Trumps of Prutin during the early days of the pandemic
in twenty twenty that Russia and the US were essentially
exchanging medical equipment, including ventilators. Now, this new book, titled
War isn't officially released until October fifteen, but CNN managed

(22:33):
to get an early copy and they've released this information.
It's of course not made the Trump campaign particularly happy.
They have responded. In fact, we've heard from Trump's communications
director Stephen Chung. He's gone as far as to say
that the book simply belongs in a bargain bin. He's
released an email statement saying none of these made up
stories by Bob Woodwood are true and they are the

(22:54):
work of a truly demented and deranged man. But of
course Bob Woodwood is a vert th're an investigative journalist.
He's probably best known for his work on the Watergate
scandal back in the early nineteen seventies. So certainly people
are not so quick to dismiss these allegations. But Jack,
whether or not this is going to be enough to
shift things in terms of the election, I think he's

(23:16):
probably not particularly likely. What I've found extraordinary this campaign
is that we've had such a chaotic race and yet
the Neil really hasn't moved too much as far as
polling is concerned. We're still on track for an incredibly
tight race. And I don't think these allegations, as interestingly
as they are, are going to change people's minds just

(23:37):
one month up from the election.

Speaker 3 (23:38):
Yeah, yeah, I tend to agree with you on that one.
Thank you so much, Catherine. That is US correspondent Catherine Ferkin.
So confirmation today that Australia has waived diplomatic community for
a man accused of an early morning assault in the
Wellington CBD. You know that video was released. It was
pretty addifying, to say the least, allegedly showing the partner
of an Australian diplomat yelling out what sounded like a

(24:01):
homophobic slur at police, before then loudly claiming that he
had diplomatic immunity. It was like during a bit of
a fight or a scuffle in the Wellington CBD. So anyway,
the New Zealand government or the police had sought to
wave had sought to get the Aussies to waive diplomatic immunity.
In a statement, this afternoon in fat said quote, the

(24:21):
Australian government has provided waivers of immunity enabling next steps
to be taken by police. The matter is now with
New Zealand Police. So we'd have to say, given the
state of that video and given what police wanted, good
on the Aussies for agreeing to it in this case.
So we will watch that case with keen interest Politics next.
It's sixteen to five on Newstalk's He'd be.

Speaker 2 (24:42):
Politics with Centric Credit, Check your customers and get payments
certainty and.

Speaker 3 (24:46):
New Zealand Herald political editor Clear Trevet is whether us
this afternoon killed are kyoto Jack? Did you hear they
cut the OCR fifty bases points just after two o'clock
this afternoon?

Speaker 4 (24:57):
Apparently I have indeed heard that. Yeah, it's pretty much
good news for everybody. Really. The unions love it, their
businesses love it, retail sector loves it. Finance Minister Nichola
Willis suddenly loves it. She I think said it was
a double whammy, double happy, and the government's now merely

(25:18):
taking credit for it all by painting it basically as
the fruits of their labors and getting inflation down and
getting spending Restrainton and they'll be hoping it will serve
to bolster business confidence as well as deliver the much
needed relief for mortgage holders basically, So yeah, a pretty

(25:38):
pretty big move and they'll be watching to see where
it goes from now a quick response from the banks
as well.

Speaker 3 (25:44):
So yeah, how quick has that been? I mean they
were basically out of blocks two minutes afterwards.

Speaker 1 (25:49):
Right, yeah.

Speaker 4 (25:50):
I think some of them had started nudging beforehand, and
then it was very quick afterwards. At least two or
three Catt and West immediately, So I think Willis has
pointed out that about half of all mortgage sholders are
now on either floating because they've been waiting in for
this to happen, or on very short term like less
than six months, because everyone's been expecting it to drop further.

(26:13):
So so it's pretty good news really, So Zealanders.

Speaker 3 (26:18):
Well, the only people who aren't celebrating are people like
you and I who had millions of dollars just squirreled
away in our savings account.

Speaker 13 (26:25):
Right, that's right, Jack, that's me.

Speaker 3 (26:29):
Yes, that's us Varius, high fame journalist. Now, the Order
of Generals has come up with a very interesting letter
regarding the way that the government dealt with funding for
I am Hope you gum Boot Friday thanks to the
coalition agreement.

Speaker 4 (26:46):
Yeah, it's quite an interesting letter from the Order to General.
He's he's given their Director General of Health a bit
of a serve for doling out twenty four million to
Mike King's mental health charity Gunboat Friday or the im
Hope Foundation, saying it was done through a process that
was quote unusual and inconsistent with good practice. Now, Mike

(27:10):
King has done absolutely nothing wrong here. I would like
to say this was Listeners might recall that it was
a six million dollar and your funding promise. That was
one of the items in the coalition agreement between National
and New Zealand first and then of course it got
to the point at the time it was unveiled as
one of their coalition agreements. Mike King thank the government

(27:30):
for quote pushing bureaucracy aside. But as things have transpired,
the Order to General wasn't quite so impressed by bureaucracy
being pushed aside. What he's done is he's basically said
that it didn't follow the normal roles for government procurement,
which in usual circumstances, the government says, this is what
we want to happen, so we want funding for mental

(27:52):
health services for youth, which is what Mike Kingswan does,
and then the officials won a contested process for providers
to kind of bid for it and what they can
offer and all that kind of stuff. In this case,
because of the specific coalition promise, it has gone to
Mike King's organization, and their officials have found a little

(28:14):
opt out clause from the usual contested process which allows
them to not put it up for the bidding if
it's someone who offers very specialist services, for example. And
the Order to General said, you more or less came
up with that as an excuse after you'd already said
you'd do the funding. He is given the officials to serve,

(28:34):
but has kind of pointed to the coalition agreement is
making it quite difficult for them because it was such
a specific promise. In that he said that the official
should at least have pushed back a bit harder against
the ministers and explained more firmly how far adrift it
was from the usual procurement processes. Interesting the statement that

(28:56):
sent out includes a paragraph which says that there is
not intended to examine the developmental content of a coalition agreement,
which is the domain of political parties. But the letter
itself does note that usually ministers don't make contractual decisions,
and again that those officials were put in a difficult position.

(29:17):
So that in itself is a little bit of a
touch tut on the coalition agreement process, I guess, and
some satisfaction there. I think the minister involved, as Mental
Health Minister mat Doc and he's merely also blamed the officials,
saying that while the government the government's job to kind
of say this is what we want funded, and then

(29:39):
it's up to the officials to decide how to implement that.
And he said he had sought assurance that it was
all being done within the roles and had been given
that assurance. So a bit of a bit of a
lessons around labors. Labors furious, weren't angry about it, as
you kind of would be. It's not a good lock,
saying the government's basically showing content for the rules and

(29:59):
it's in these kind of things hurt public confidence in
the process in New Zealand's reputation.

Speaker 3 (30:05):
I remember asking Matt Doosey about this a few months ago,
and you know, he beged, this is pretty straight up,
and I said, was it a good process? And he
said oh, And I said, no, was it a good process?
Because it is just an unusual process, right, And the
truth is, like you say, no, one's actually suggesting, you
know that Mike King's done anything wrong here. That the
issue is that if you don't have transparency around the

(30:27):
way that these funding decisions are made, and you have
ministers just making kind of ad hoc decisions for whatever
their project is, for whatever their issue is, you know,
it sets a really bad standard. Right, So there are
reasons that usually we have systems around procurement.

Speaker 4 (30:43):
Yeah, well there are because otherwise you kind of just
have political decisions being made on who gets to do
who gets to do stuff. I mean, it's not necessarily
met Doocey's foulder either, because he didn't write the coalition agreement,
he wasn't in the talks, so it's but it does
show the kind of flaws in those very specific items

(31:05):
I guess, in those coalition agreements. And then you do
have to feel a bit for the officials.

Speaker 3 (31:09):
Here no matter what they do. Yeah, yeah, yeah, they
got the screw. Hey, thank you so much. Clear, We
really appreciate it. As ever. That's New Zealand Herald political
editor Clear Trevet with us this evening. Of course, Christopher
Luxen is making his way to his first ever East
Asia summit in Lao. He's going on the Defense Force plane.
So I think I spect for the nation when I
say that my fingers are firmly crossed for the PM.

(31:32):
It could be his first chance to meet India's Prime
Minister Modi, So that would be a big, really important
moment for Christopher Luxon. Speaking of people who aren't terribly
happy with today's announcement, Maria says Jack I fixed in
late June for eighteen months because Adrian Orr and the
Reserve Bank said they might raise the ocr again. Not happy. Yeah,

(31:53):
I don't blame you, Marie. I mean it did feel
like I think between May and August the shift in
some of the rhetoric out the Reserve Bank was really stark.
So yeah, I don't blame you for being upset at all.
Ninety two ninety two, If you want to send us
a text.

Speaker 2 (32:06):
Putting the tough questions to the newspeakers, the mic asking.

Speaker 3 (32:10):
Breakfast we're insight into the troubles of Health New Zealand
a man who will fix it all, Commissioner Lester Levy,
who is with us.

Speaker 1 (32:15):
You're making headway, yes.

Speaker 8 (32:16):
On the financial side, we're starting to get relatively small
but meaningful reductions. But if I could manage, just address
the staffing, because that comes up a lot. In the
year just finished in June, we added more staff of
all professional groups than any time in the last eight years.
And the number of nurses were added in this last
year is more than the total amount of all professional

(32:37):
types in any of the two prior years. There has
never been an uplift in full time accordance as there
has been in this last year, so that doesn't meet
with the prevailing narrative.

Speaker 10 (32:45):
Back tomorrow at six am the Mike Hosking Breakfast with
the Jaguar Space used Talk z B.

Speaker 3 (32:51):
Very interesting announcement from the Minister of Sport and Recreation today.
Chris Bishop has asked Sport in z to update the
transgender inclusion guidelines. So we're going to be speaking with
him after five o'clock this evening to see what exactly
what it'll mean for community sport in New Zealand. As
well as that, we'll take you to Florida. We've got
a correspondent who's currently in a bunker waiting for the

(33:13):
arrival of Hurricane Milton. Probably a good place to be.
As well as that, the OCR fifty basis points? What's
it going to mean for house prices in New Zealand?
News is next, It's almost five on Newstalk.

Speaker 2 (33:23):
SEDB of course, pressing the newspakers to get the real story.
It's Jack Dame on. Hither dup to c Allen drive
with one New Zealand. Let's get connected new Stalk said B.

Speaker 3 (33:37):
Well, they have done it. The Reserve Bank has decided
to cut the OCR by fifty basis points from five
point twenty five to four point seven to five, the
second consecutive cut after the OCR was lowered in August
for the first time in four years. All the big
banks ASB A and z Kiwi Bank predicted the fifty
point drop, although twenty five basis point drop was still

(33:59):
on the cads in the eyes of some economists. The
Cooperative Bank CEO Mark Bullshit is with us this evening?
Calder Mark, yeah, of course, be on, Yeah, what's this
going to mean? For New Zealanders.

Speaker 15 (34:10):
I think it's good news for home borrowers. That's a
big drop, and you know, we've often seen those big
fifty point changes up like an earthquake or global financial crisis.
So it's quite a big move, and it does mean
benefits for customers over the course of the year. That
does equate to thousands and people's back pocket again from
those lower rates. And I see all the banks today

(34:32):
have moved their floating rates following on for that reserved
bank announcement today.

Speaker 3 (34:36):
There is always a bit of a lad right twelve
to eighteen months before we get the full weight of
moves in the ocr felt throughout the economy. But what
does a fifty basis point cut today say about the
state of our economy.

Speaker 15 (34:48):
Yeah, obviously that was done on the back of some
you know, some pretty you know, subdued environment out there
in the economy, low spending, et cetera. That's certainly a
sign of we have been in two years of recession.
But for customers, I guess and for general public out
there who are borrowers at there's lot of those rates
are getting passed through quite quickly. Now typically you're quite right,

(35:11):
there's a slow lag. But actually people have been going
short for a little while now on the expectation rates
are coming down and we've already seen markets pricing this in.
So those fix rates have been coming down fast. Started
the year, they were one percent higher, so they've already
started to come down quite quickly and people are getting
the benefit of that now.

Speaker 3 (35:31):
So just how competitive are those rates at the moment?

Speaker 15 (35:34):
Well, it's quite a flurry of changes out there in
the marketplace, so it's a good healthy market to be
in and to be shopping around and looking at options.
And you know, for example, we're going to one year
rates six point one nine. I mean that's pretty good
rates from where it has been the start of the year.
Those rates were in the sevens. So yeah, you can
said there's a competition out there now and in that

(35:55):
climbing great environment. That's good news for the general public
who've got options.

Speaker 3 (36:00):
Does this mean that we can expect another fifty basis
point cut come November when the Reserve Bank considers things
for the final time this.

Speaker 15 (36:07):
Year, You know, that's what markets are expecting. So the
November twenty seven official cash rate, the interest rate marks
are pricing in another fifty point cup on top of
the fifty we've just seen and the twenty five in August.
So that's a total of one point twenty five percent
in total. If all of that happens, obviously remains to

(36:28):
be seen, and that's in the hands of the Reserve Bank
for November. But it'll be interesting to see what happens
in that pre Christmas announcement.

Speaker 3 (36:36):
Yeah, hey, thanks for your time, Mark, appreciate it. That
is the Cooperative Bank CEO, Mark Wilshire, Team ten past
five on news talks, there'd be. Florida is bracing for
quote the storm of the century, with Hurricane Milton now
upgraded to a Category five hurricane with wind speeds of
up to two hundred and seventy kilometers an hour. Residents
are evacuating by the millions, with officials saying it is

(36:58):
a matter of life and death. Alison Pietrowski is Channel
nine's US correspondent who's on the ground in Florida and
is with us to seven me, thank you for being
with us. Where are you right now?

Speaker 12 (37:08):
Well, I'm staying in a hotel where a whole lot
of locals have decided they don't feel safe in their homes,
so they have come here to seek refuge through this storm.
I think a lot of them have already witnessed hurricanes
in the past. This area is so prone to hurricanes
every single summer. I feel like we're here covering a hurricane.
So these locals have seen hurricanes before. But I think

(37:29):
there is a sense of nervousness about this one for
two reasons. Firstly, it's currently sitting at a category five
as we talk, which is, you know, the highest it
can get on the spectrum. I'm seeing lots of people
kind of joking that this is such a high category
five that if there was a category six, this would
be one. And I guess the other real concern is just,
you know, less than a fortnight ago, roughly ten days ago,

(37:51):
Hurricane Helene stormed roared through this part of the United States,
in fact, many parts of the United States, Florida, Georgia,
and then North Carolina where it caused some catastrophic damage.
So this hurricane is the second in a space of
like ten days. And I was out at Treasure Island,

(38:12):
which is a barrier island outside of Tampa. It's somewhere
that gets hit by hurricanes all the time, and it
got hit by Helene and on either side of the street,
we just saw piles and piles of debris left over
from the last hurricane. You know, furniture, broken, bits of tables,
you know, fridges, barbecues, appliances, all kind of piled up
in these junk heaps all along the road. Not just

(38:34):
you know, one street or two street, but like block
after block, kilometer after kilometer. And I guess the real
fear is that once these winds get going, those that
debris will become flying projectiles, which will meant things. You know,
it'll give give it that extra degree of danger.

Speaker 3 (38:51):
So you were going to be reporting. I can understand
why you were there, But why are those locals still
in the city. Why haven't they evacuated?

Speaker 12 (38:58):
Look, I have to say that a lot of them
have left, more than what I normally see leave this
region when a hurricane is approaching. I think Floridians where
it is a badge of honor. Hey, we've seen hurricanes.
We're still standing. We've been through, so you know, they're
kind of battle heavy when it comes to a hurricane.
Today was the quietest I've ever seen a place twenty
four hours before a hurricane. It was a ghost Town
along those barrier islands there. That being said, though, there

(39:21):
were some people who decided to stay and ride out
the storm, and we're confidently doing so. I ran into
a guy called Jim who was a retired firefighter. His
wife works for the council and she's been sent to
work out of their head office for the next twenty
four hours, banning the nine one one calls that come in.
And he's like, I'm going to be here with my dog,
and I built this house myself. It's withstood every hurricane

(39:43):
that's come along so far. I've got a generator and
we're just going to ride this thing out. And he
was so confident about it, and that is a quality
that I see in many Floridians. I feel like it's
something they kind of take. They take a bit of
pride in the fact that they've experienced a lot and
they're still standing.

Speaker 3 (39:57):
Yeah, we're going to be thinking of you. I've heard
next twenty four hours or so. I know it's probably
a pretty stressful time and it's kind of the calm
before the storm right now. But yeah, all the very
best for when it does arrive.

Speaker 12 (40:08):
Appreciate it.

Speaker 4 (40:09):
Good to talk to you.

Speaker 3 (40:10):
You too. That's Allison Peter Trowski's years Channel nine's US
correspondent reporting to US there from Tampa in Florida. I
have been to the aftermath of not a hurricane with
winds the strong, but a tornado with winds are strong
twenty thirteen the more tornado in Oklahoma, so wins that
are of a very similar speed. I think the winds

(40:30):
then we're about three hundred k's an hour at their worst.
These winds are forecast to be about two hundred and
seventy k's an hour, and it was straight after the
christ Church earthquake, so I could kind of compare the
scale of the damage. Honestly, it is hard for the
human being to comprehend, for human beings to comprehend just
what two hundred and seventy or three hundred kilometers now

(40:51):
means in terms of wind strength. The devastation is absolute.
It like completely scours the earth. Combine that with the
storm serge making a stormsage of about four and a
half meters along the Florida coast. I mean, this really
has the potential to be a catastrophic storm and as
well as the human cost. Of course, there is an
election in the us less than a month away. Quarter

(41:12):
past five on Newstalk's EDB seventeen past five on Newstalks
EDB so Chris Bishop, who is the Minister of Sport
and Recreation, has today asked Sport New Zealand to review
and update its principles for the inclusion of transgender people
in community sport. He says that the current guidelines don't
reflect expectations that sport be about fairness and safety as

(41:33):
well as diversity, inclusion and equity. So he's going to
be with us before six o'clock this evening. We can
ask him exactly what that means right now though. Eighteen
past five and Cinnabon is coming to New Zealand. The
popular American bakery will open its first store at Westfield
Newmarket next month. It'll start off selling many of its
classic cinnamon rolls and blended frozen drinks which come in

(41:54):
flavors like mangoes, strawberry, and cookies and cream. Kaithan Peric
is the director of sinab On New Zealand, the franchise
rights and it is with us now.

Speaker 11 (42:01):
Hi, Kathan, hey, thank you, thank you for having me.

Speaker 3 (42:04):
Why did you want to bring Cinnabon to New Zealand.

Speaker 11 (42:08):
You know, I've looked at the franchise for a while now,
had it overseas a couple of times and thought that
there's something that needed to come to New Zealand. And yeah,
a treat to give to New Zealanders.

Speaker 3 (42:22):
So for people who don't know what cinnabon is, can
you describe it?

Speaker 11 (42:27):
It's the best cinnamon roles that you ever eat. We
provide you know, frosting on it, with lots of other
treats such as coffee chiladas. Yeah, it's it's package.

Speaker 3 (42:40):
It's a sometimes food delicious, but definitely are sometimes food.
There'd be a fair assessment of a sinnabon, right.

Speaker 11 (42:47):
Yeah, it's a treat, you know, just that one extra
thing that you need after dinner as a treat your
sweet tooth.

Speaker 3 (42:54):
Yeah. So obviously this has been a huge success in
some other markets like the US. Why did you think
that it would be a big deal in New Zealand.

Speaker 11 (43:03):
We've been studying the Asia Pacific markets for a while now,
and with the success that it's had in Australia and
with the rapid expansion that it's doing in the Southern
Asian markets in the Pacific, market in Australia. We definitely
thought that this was something that would be really good
in New Zealand, and it would we can be expand a.

Speaker 16 (43:23):
Lot as well.

Speaker 3 (43:24):
How tricky is it to pick up the franchise rights
for something like Sinnabon.

Speaker 11 (43:29):
They're a couple of hopes and hurdles to go through.
But in the sense of you know, setting up and stuff,
it's pretty It's pretty hard, but it also has a
toll on you. But we're all it's pretty good.

Speaker 3 (43:41):
And what are you hoping for Cinnabon and New Zealand.
Are we going to see more than one store?

Speaker 11 (43:47):
Definitely so over the next five years we're looking at
rapid expansion all over, firstly in Auckland and then towards
the other parts of the country.

Speaker 3 (43:57):
Good stuff, good good luck, Kithin. We appreciate your time,
kaith and Perk who is the director of Sinnabon New Zealand,
and thank you for your text regarding the ocr Jack
Adrian all needs to go misread it badly on the
way down, misread it badly on the way back up.
I suppose we could reverse those two things to anyone
else in any other industry would be let go, but
he was protected.

Speaker 5 (44:16):
Jack.

Speaker 3 (44:16):
People have got to stop blaming the Reserve Bank and
actually do some homework. I'm a mechanic. I've had my
mortgage split in five different accounts since we first bought
in two thousand and seven in Auckland. As far as
I'm concerned, I'm not boasting. But people need to read
the market, they need to read the economy. They need
to read the government of the day as well as
what's happening in the world. Don't blame the Reserve Bank
for ill informed and uneducated decisions when it comes to

(44:37):
your home loans. Thank you for that ninety two ninety two.
If you want to send us a message, it's twenty
one past five.

Speaker 2 (44:44):
The day's newsweakers talk to Jack first, Jack dame On,
Heather Dupless, Alan drive with one New Zealand.

Speaker 1 (44:51):
Let's get connected and used talk as.

Speaker 3 (44:53):
Said be Okay, pop quiz, What of these do you
think causes the highest number of premature deaths in New Zealand? Okay,
bit of a macarb pop quiz? But what of these
do you think causes the highest number of premature deaths?
Bowel cancer, diabetes, road crashes, melanoma, air pollution. This is

(45:16):
going to seem unbelievable to many keywis, But according to
the Ministry of the Environment and Statistics New Zealand, here
in good old cleaning green one hundred percent pure New Zealand,
air pollution kills more people than all of those other
causes combined. Just think about that, diabetes, bowel cancer, road crashes, melanoma.

(45:37):
Put them in a blender, add them all together, all
of those deaths, and air pollution still comes out top
of the macarb pops. That's crazy, isn't it so. According
to the study release today, even though air pollution standards
have improved, in twenty nineteen, air pollution was associated with
three two hundred deaths in New Zealand. That's more than

(45:57):
the number of people who died on nine to eleven
In a country our size, with our wealth and with
our regulatory framework, you would have to say more than
three thousand deaths every year attributable to air pollution is
a disgraceful figure.

Speaker 4 (46:12):
It is.

Speaker 3 (46:12):
It's disgraceful. According to the Triennial study, about one in
ten deaths in twenty nineteen was attributable to air pollution.
The social costs are in the billions of dollars, and
that doesn't include the increasingly well documented impact on brain
function and intelligence that comes from prolonged exposure to air pollution. Now,

(46:33):
like all health stats are, of course, poor people in
poor communities are the most negatively affected. The biggest cause
is no surprise though, it's traffic pollution. But as the
science improves, the impact of traffic pollution of traffic on
air pollution only gets worse. So basically, traffic causes us
way more harm than we previously understood. The report suggests

(46:58):
that get this, about seventy percent of the air pollution
debts and about seventy percent of more than thirteen thousand
annual hospitalizations from air pollution are caused from traffic pollution
seventy percent. And of course, when you take the cars
off the road long and behold, the air quality improves.
So if you ever needed a greater reason for better

(47:22):
investment in public transport services, for massively speeding up the
EV roll out, and for congestion charging in our cities,
I reckon three two hundred deaths a year?

Speaker 1 (47:33):
Is it deep?

Speaker 3 (47:35):
Two ninety two is our text number if you want
to get in touch. Okay, this is more vibes than analytics.
But I have a habit of going onto One Roof
all the time and just checking out new property listings,
and it struck me this week this is one hundred
percent vibes and not analytics. It struck me this week
that there were many more new listings at the start
of the week than there would usually be. You know,

(47:56):
usually new listings come out on like a Wednesday Thursday
so that they can be ready for the open homes
on the weekend. Well, when I logged into One Roof
at the start of this week, I thought, man, there
are a few more listings this week, and I reckon,
here's the Jacktame theory that a lot of people who
are looking to sell their homes were trying to get
a nice and early before the OCR cut. So after

(48:16):
six o'clock this evening, we're going to catch up with
core Logics chief Property Economists get his thoughts on what
the OCR cut is going to mean for house prices
in New Zealand and demand across different parts of the
property sector. He will be with us very shortly. Our
huddle coming up after five thirty, though it's almost five thirty.
We'll get to your feedback very shortly. News is next,

(48:37):
though you were Jack tame on Newstalk zedb.

Speaker 1 (48:42):
The name you trust to get the answers you need.
Jack tame on.

Speaker 2 (48:46):
Heather Dupless, Alan drive with one New Zealand. Let's get connected.

Speaker 1 (48:50):
A news talk said, Bucky please kiss.

Speaker 3 (49:07):
News still dead you with Jack tame before six o'clock.
Our huddle this evening Jordan Williams and Simon Wilson right
now though it is twenty five minutes to six on
News Tooks. He'd be in the government his today asked
Sport New Zealand to review and update their principles for
the inclusion of transgender people in community Sport, outlining that
the current guidelines don't reflect expectations that sport be about

(49:29):
fairness and safety as well as diversity, inclusion and equity.
The Minister in charge of this is Chris Bishop, who's
with us this evening, Kilda.

Speaker 17 (49:37):
Good afternoon.

Speaker 3 (49:38):
Well what does this actually mean.

Speaker 17 (49:41):
It means that Sport New Zealand will be updating the
guidelines they published and well first published in December twenty
twenty two. They're not mandatory, they're just guiding principles around
the inclusion of transgender people in community sports. This is
not about elite sport where there are different rules obviously,
so they'll be updating those guidelines and getting an update
from them in the coming months.

Speaker 3 (50:01):
And what does it mean for the inclusion of transgender
people in community sport.

Speaker 17 (50:06):
It's just simply making the point that it is really
important that transgender people can participate at a community level.
But the way the guidelines work at the moment is
they're solely focused or almost near exclusively focused on diversity,
inclusion and equity. But it's our view, and I think
many people in the community's view that sport is also
about fairness and safety, and so it's just making sure

(50:28):
the guidelines reflect those legitimate expectations as well. And so
it's about taking a bit more of a balanced approach
to what the guidelines say.

Speaker 3 (50:36):
Why is fairness an issue when it comes to community sport.

Speaker 17 (50:42):
Because sport is ultimately about competition and about winning and
losing and about competing, and I think most people who
follow sport will know that even at a community level,
it's really important that it's fair, and so the guidelines
will be updated to reflect that.

Speaker 3 (51:00):
Will this mean do you think that transgender people are
do you think fewer transgender people will play community sport.

Speaker 17 (51:11):
Well, I really hope not. And as part of kind
of coming to the view that we need to update
the guidelines, I have talked to a range of different
people in the community and a range of different organizations
and my hope and expectations that doesn't happen. And I
think we need to realize that these are just these

(51:31):
are just guiding principles. These are not mandatory. They're just
designed to help sporting organizations grapple with It's quite tricky issue.

Speaker 3 (51:37):
It is a tricky issue. I know it's really contentious,
but why wouldn't that happen.

Speaker 17 (51:42):
Well, ultimately it's over to sporting bodies to develop rules
and regulations and guidance.

Speaker 3 (51:48):
They've been able to do that, I mean, they can
do that now, there's nothing to say they.

Speaker 17 (51:51):
Can, and they can and they are. They are, I
mean many of them are. The reason why these guidelines
existed in the first place is that many of the
sports said, look, we just really need some help here.
We don't really know what we're doing, and so they
went to Sport in New Zealand, which is the kind
of you know, overarching body and support the zeal And
develop these guidelines in there for a couple of years
now almost a couple of years. I'm just asking them

(52:12):
to update them to reflect the fact that it's not
just about inclusion that is really important, but it's also
about fairness and safety.

Speaker 3 (52:20):
But why wouldn't it mean fewer transgender people playing community sport?

Speaker 5 (52:25):
Well?

Speaker 17 (52:25):
I mean, ultimately, we want everyone to be able to
participate in community sport, and we want everyone to be
able to join their local rugby club, join their local
softball club, basket or whatever it is that people choose
to do. I want as many people playing sport as
possible in New Zealand. It's just about making sure we
do that in a way that is inclusive of everybody
but also recognizes the realities of having transgender people participate

(52:50):
at a community level. It does produce challenges for sports,
and it does produce challenges for clubs, and it's just
about navigating our way through that as a community and
making sure that everyone's feel safe and accepted.

Speaker 3 (53:02):
Why won't that mean fewer transgender people playing community sport?

Speaker 17 (53:06):
I don't think it will.

Speaker 18 (53:08):
Why not?

Speaker 11 (53:10):
Well, because I.

Speaker 17 (53:12):
Backed sports and I backed sporting bodies and.

Speaker 3 (53:15):
The sporting bodies can sit their own standards. Now we've
established that, So why won't giving sports into these rules.
Why won't that mean fewer transgender people playing sport well?

Speaker 17 (53:25):
Because I think actually that the guidelines have been well
received by the sporting by sporting bodies, But that.

Speaker 3 (53:30):
Doesn't explain why fewer Why it won't mean fewer transgender
people playing sport well.

Speaker 17 (53:36):
But it also doesn't explain why there will be I mean,
you know, you sort of a little bit securitus. I mean,
the guidelines are out there, sporting bodies wanted them, they've
been published. I'm asking them to be updated to reflect
more a slightly more balanced approach to the one hand
which they are utilized by by sporting bodies. I have

(53:56):
every expectation that transgender people will be able to participate
in the community sport, and in fact I welcome that
because I want everyone who wants to play sports be
able to do so.

Speaker 19 (54:04):
So.

Speaker 3 (54:05):
If a transgender person can't play a sport playing as
part of a team, for example, in the gender for
which they identify, what do they do.

Speaker 16 (54:16):
Well, look at depends.

Speaker 17 (54:17):
This is the thing is, there's no hard and fast
rules here, right, and it depends on the sport. So treason,
for example, has an open category that anyone can participate in,
including transgender people. New Galan Rugby League already has a
policy that at age thirteen and over, you have to
participate in the gender that you're assigned at birth. So
it really depends on the sporting code. Some sports are

(54:39):
more of a further advance on dealing with this than others.
Some bodies just don't even have a policy around the stuff.
Some are more advances. I've sort indicated a couple of examples,
so there are Part of the issue with this is
that there aren't hard and fast rules and often the debate,
the debate descends into binaries and actually, you know that's
part of the problem.

Speaker 3 (54:59):
That's irony. Yes, yeah, I thank you for your time.
I know it is a contentious issue, so we appreciate
your time. This evening. That is Chris Bishop right now,
it's nineteen to six The Huddle.

Speaker 2 (55:11):
With New Zealand Southeast International Realty, Local and global exposure
like no other.

Speaker 3 (55:16):
Burned out huddle this evening. Jordan Williams from the Taxpayers
Union and New Zealand Herald's senior writer, Simon Wilson held
accord to You're right, gents, let's start off with response
to the ocr fifty basis points today. Jordan, Presumably that's
what you wanted to see.

Speaker 7 (55:30):
Yeah, well, there'll be a lot of mortgage holders and
people in my generation mortgaged up to the eyeballs that
will be over the moon seeing this. But I mean
it's almost inevitable now we're going to go back into
a technical recession. But we don't really look at that
the taxpayers union. It's more the GDP per capita and
it's we're now in the longest recession since records began.

(55:50):
When you look at it sort of what we're producing
per person.

Speaker 1 (55:53):
Now.

Speaker 7 (55:54):
You know, Adriana was doing his bit, but actually the
government's really going to have to do the other part
of the heavy lifting, which reform that encourages economic growth.

Speaker 20 (56:04):
Simon, It goes to economic growth, doesn't it, Jordan. I
know that's the view of the taxpayers, you know, and
I've seen your appress.

Speaker 7 (56:11):
Well, yeah, it's inherently good growth people out of poverty.

Speaker 20 (56:15):
Growth is the only answer, is I'm quoting.

Speaker 21 (56:17):
Well, it's brought a billion people out of poverty in
my lifetime. Simon, Well, let me Yeah, that's a debatable statistic.
But what I really wanted to ask you though, was
how is it you can talk about growth, which obviously
helps with jobs, with profits, with enterprise, with opportunity, does
all those things, but at the same time is creating
a planet that is unsustainable for everybody to live on.

(56:39):
You can't just talk about growth. You have to talk
about that in a wider context. And when you reduce that,
when you take away the wider context, when you simply say, Okay,
we're going to make money cheaper so everybody can get
on and pretend that nothing else is going wrong, that
is a recipe for a dangerous solution.

Speaker 3 (56:58):
Jordan said, like a true.

Speaker 7 (57:00):
Boomer, this is nineteen sixties theory around.

Speaker 3 (57:04):
It's not funny sixty short.

Speaker 22 (57:07):
The short point is.

Speaker 7 (57:10):
A cross perus. New Zealand has far more options around
protecting the environment than a.

Speaker 3 (57:15):
Paw News island.

Speaker 20 (57:17):
That's the sixties argument, Jordan. The idea that we fix
the economy and at some time when everything's sweet and
we'll be able to look after the environment. That is
that is what has got us in. That is business
as usual. That is what has got us into trouble. Now,
I'm not saying that we shouldn't have economic progress, of
course we should, but I am saying that when you
only talk about economic progress and don't talk about the

(57:39):
wider context, you're not going to have an economy to progress.

Speaker 3 (57:43):
Right back to the ICR, Well, Jordan, it's interesting. So
I've been trying to find out who's upset about the
i CR today, right and obviously anyone who's got a
significant sum in their savings and I going to see
their savings rates eaten into a little bit. But you know,
we've got a couple of texts from people who fixed
back in June looking at the commentary from the Reserve

(58:05):
Bank at that time and feel like they have been misled.
Do you think they have a case to make?

Speaker 7 (58:11):
Well, I fixed just a part of my mortgage, although
not for very long, to heat my bets a little bit,
only a few months ago. So I'm a little bit annoyed,
but not as annoyed as my head of my bank
coming out for capital gains tax.

Speaker 1 (58:25):
But that's a that's a different matter.

Speaker 7 (58:27):
I mean, look, I mean, you know, it's an open
market for information, and reasonable minds can and did differ.

Speaker 20 (58:33):
Seventy seven percent of business leaders in the mood of
the boardroom survey. I agreed with her, amazing.

Speaker 3 (58:39):
All right, all right, guys, we'll come back in a
couple of minutes. Yeah, yeah, we'll come back to end
a couple of minutes. Get your thoughts on the government's
directive to Sports end Z, which I know is a
contentious one quarter to six on Newstalks'd be the.

Speaker 2 (58:54):
Hubble with New Zealand Southeby's International Realty, elevate the marketing
of your home Back with your.

Speaker 3 (59:00):
Lord and William Simon Wilson ow Huddle this evening. Simon,
the government has asked Sports New Zealand to update their
transgender community sport guidelines. I know this is just such
a contentious sysy. There's no kind of no winning for
anyone on this front. But is this the government's domain?

Speaker 20 (59:16):
I think you were your questions to the minister before
when you're asking him are fewer transgender people going to
be playing sport? The subtext of having the review is
that that would be the likely outcome, but he didn't want.

Speaker 11 (59:30):
To say that.

Speaker 20 (59:31):
It strikes me that they've got a coalition agreement that
they're going to have this review, but the national part
of the government doesn't want to go anywhere near it.
You couldn't hear in what Bishop was saying there was
any any reason that he thought was any good why
they're doing this at all. It's simply problem The thing
that's weird about it is that he uses the code
word fairness. We've had inclusion, we've had equity, now we're

(59:53):
going to have more fairness. Fairness is in other contexts
a word that means inclusion and equity as well, but
in this case he's talking specifically about being more fair
to susgender winner, and it's problematic that he's talking in
code like that. I think it's a shame that he
feels he has to.

Speaker 3 (01:00:13):
Jordan, do you draw a distinction on this issue between
elite level sport and community sport?

Speaker 4 (01:00:21):
Oh?

Speaker 7 (01:00:21):
I really turn my mind to that. To be honest,
I wanted to answer the question that Simon wouldn't quite
answer then, and it's whether it's a role of government.

Speaker 1 (01:00:29):
I don't think it is.

Speaker 7 (01:00:30):
The problem here is that Sports New Zealand had guidance
that these Olympians have disagreed with. But in a perfect world,
I'd say, look, it should be up to the sporting
codes or the sporting associations. If you want to play
in a league that does or doesn't include transgender athletes,
that you know that that should be left for the

(01:00:52):
particular sports for example, or organizations. The problem we have
is that so many sports, both at elite and at
an amateur level, are reliant on government funding and Sport
New Zealand and the like, and so arguably that they
have to take our position.

Speaker 4 (01:01:10):
But I mean maybe not.

Speaker 7 (01:01:12):
I mean, is it a role of government? But I
think it is inherent And the reason it's hard and
the reason why Simon and I are cautious because we
don't want to have twilers to blow up or have
death threats or things like that on this matter. I've
got enough enemies fighting for lawer Texas the alone, this
sort of stuff. But yeah, it's just I'm just not
I'm just not convinced the government should be there at all.

Speaker 20 (01:01:30):
Well, I tell you what, Jordan, I agree with you.

Speaker 3 (01:01:34):
Can Well, yeah, I mean it's it's I mean the
problem is too that I mean a lot of these
a lot of these community sports organizations. I mean, who
would want to be an administrator? The best of times

(01:01:55):
These are thankless roles, right, trying to be an administrator
for a minority sport in New Zealand and then trying
to your own guidelines around this. It is such a
tricky and contentious subject and I suppose that's why they
look to healthy to Sporting z for guidance on these
kinds of issues. Auckland and Otago universities have dropped down
the world rankings, and you know how these university rankings

(01:02:16):
are all important for our institutions Jordan. Should we be concerned?

Speaker 20 (01:02:20):
Yeah, we should be.

Speaker 7 (01:02:21):
Actually, I mean it's the it's probably the daily end
of what has been a declining education system in the
in the school sector. About this is show my age.
But eight or nine years ago, I think on this
very panel, there was a similar report out and I've
looked up the proportion of GDP we spend on tertiary
education and it's very high. And I pointed that out

(01:02:42):
that you know, we're actually spending quite a lot. And
the one of the chances that's got in touch with
me and actually showed the floor in it. So this
is my correction eight years later, is that when you,
according to the OCD, we do spend a lot on
tertiary education, but actually a much higher proportion of that
goes on to student support as opposed to money to

(01:03:02):
the institutions. So they were a bit of annoy that,
you know that the Taxpayers Union was hoppity hopperty about well,
actually they do pretty well financially. Actually it's not necessarily
going to the universities or to that research. On the
other hand, when we've looked at this before, the staff
ratios in New Zealand are really out of whack when
you compare the actual academic number versus the non academic staff.

Speaker 3 (01:03:27):
Yeah right, okay, hey, just before we go because we
are running out of time. Simon that report I was
referencing re air pollution caught your interest as well today.

Speaker 20 (01:03:35):
Oh it did? I yeah, I just can't just say
Christian about the university speaking. So there's another way to
look at the data, and that is that last time
they did it, we were in the Auckland University was
in the top seven point nine percent. It's now in
the top seven point three, even though it's gone down
in the rankings because the two hundred more universities in
the survey than there used to be. However, having said
that the problem is not as Jordan said that the

(01:03:55):
problems at schools. The problem is the underfunding of research
and bring them institutions, and that's a really big issue.
Looking at the air pollution, Queen Street as the biggest
mover on nitro sox side and that's because there are
far fewer cars and Queen Street and more electric buses
and it's now a much more pleasant place to be.
But we still have an apporing problems all around this country.

Speaker 3 (01:04:20):
Jordan, wrap us up, sire.

Speaker 20 (01:04:22):
You're in office there, Paul.

Speaker 7 (01:04:24):
Queen Street. It's just terrible, but it's not for anything
to do with the traffic going up and down.

Speaker 3 (01:04:29):
All right, thank you for your time, guys, we do
appreciate it. Here I'm going to end with this lovely text. OMG,
what a great couple. Simon Wilson and Jordan Williams. They
should get their own show here here seven to six
on New Stalks.

Speaker 17 (01:04:40):
He'd be.

Speaker 2 (01:04:42):
On your smart speaker, on the iHeart app and in
your car on your drive home. Heather Duplicy allan drive
with one New Zealand one giant Leap for Business News Talk.

Speaker 3 (01:04:53):
ZIBB New Stalks. He'd be thank you very much for
your feedback, Jack, regarding the interview with the Sportsman, So
you didn't ask the obvious other question, Will fewer women
play sport if they're compelled to compete against transgender people?
The question goes both ways. Women do have a right
to be safe while playing sport at all levels. Yeah,
I think there's a I wonder if there's a distinction

(01:05:14):
between those two words. That the Minister has directed sports
enz to give greater waiting to fairness and safety right,
and I wonder if there is a distinction between those
two issues at least in community sport, because some people
will say, well, actually that the safety issue is absolutely paramount,
and I think you'd be hard pressed to dispute that

(01:05:35):
the fairness issue at community levels. Well, I can imagine
that more people would take issue at that. So thank
you for that point. Ninety two to ninety two if
you want to send us a message, lind says Jack.
Absolutely great panel, loved at this evening. Thank you very much. Lynn.
After six o'clock this evening, we will take you to
the chief executive of University's New Zealand get his take
on the Otago and Auckland University slipping a little way

(01:05:59):
down the rings as well as that the fallout from
the OCR already calls are intensifying for the Reserve Bank
to consider cutting to something more akin to the neutral rate.
The neutral rate isn't set in stone when it comes
to the Reserve Bank. Most economists reckon it's somewhere around three,
maybe kind of three point twenty five, maybe as high

(01:06:19):
as three point five percent. But if you want to
have a rate that isn't contributing to inflation in any
which way, keeping inflation nice in the middle of that
one to three band, then is it time the Reserve
Bank made a way way bigger cut ahead of Christmas?
We will ask that after six This evening news is
next though it's almost six. I'm Jack Tame. This is

(01:06:40):
Newstalk ZB.

Speaker 1 (01:06:44):
Keeping track of where the money.

Speaker 2 (01:06:46):
As you are with the Business Hour with Jack Tame
and my Hr on newstalksb'd.

Speaker 3 (01:07:00):
Be not a single New Zealand university has improved their
placing in this year's World University rankings. We're going to
take a close look at that before seven o'clock. It's
one of those tricky things, isn't it, Because historically a
large part of our economy has relied on international students
trading on these kind of rankings. But we will ask
the CEO of Universities New Zealand before seven o'clock if

(01:07:23):
this is actually going to make a meaningful difference to
the kind of interest that some of those foreign students
have in New Zealand universities. Right now those eight past
six on news talks, he'd be in. Today's OCR announcement
has got us all thinking about what impact it's going
to have on the housing market. The rbn Z cut
for the second time fifty basis points this time round
from five point twenty five to four point seventy five.

(01:07:45):
So when can we start to see this flow on
to home loans and the housing market at large. Core
Logic's chief property economist, Calvin Davidson is with us this
evening ten arquare good evening, good evening big when.

Speaker 18 (01:07:57):
Well it is, Yes, you're a mortgageh bial, it's in
your big one. We're going to see mortgage rates fall further.
I mean they've already been declined, but probably further falls
from here. So I think a direct boast housing sentiments
and probably a boast of house prices in terms of
bringing the recent downturn to an end.

Speaker 3 (01:08:15):
Yeah, I'll ask about house prices in a second, because
obviously that's one of the flow on effects from this.
But how are you expecting the banks to react already?
We've seen a fair bit of action today. Are they
going to be trying to outdo each other in the
coming weeks?

Speaker 18 (01:08:27):
Yeah. I think what we're really seeing in the housing
market at the moment is it's fairly quiet. We're not
seeing many sales, it's quite quiet in terms of activity.
So banks are competing for that market share. It's about
trying to win market share relatively quiet market. So yeah,
I think we'll see some fairly good rates coming through
as those banks trying to win those customers. So I

(01:08:48):
think if you've got put a mortgage, there's a good
news ahead.

Speaker 3 (01:08:51):
Yeah, Calvin, there's a lot of debate over where the
neutral cash rates should be. But if next week's CPI
data shows that in New Zealand inflation in New Zealand
is within the target band and somewhere nearer to two
percent than three percent, is there not an argument that
perhaps the OCI should be cut even further.

Speaker 18 (01:09:10):
Yeah, Well, that's possibly a narrative that's going to start
coming through because the neutural rate is demanded to be
about three percent. It's definitely not a precise science, but
if it is somewhere around there and where we're still
currently at four point seventy five, then I think there
is an argument to say you try and get there
as quick as possible, especially if inflation is coming down
quickly and perhaps raving the RESCU of EVE than going

(01:09:31):
below target. So that could be a bit of commentary
that starts coming out. But also I guess the Reserve
Bank just want to observe the days. You've going to
give these things time to work their way through, so
I'd anticipate a steady path. But that argument might start.

Speaker 3 (01:09:46):
Just how much pent up demand is there in the
property market.

Speaker 18 (01:09:51):
There's probably a little bit. I mean, certainly from existing
and occupiers. We haven't seen a lot of people moving around.
Likely there's been a lot of activity from first time buyers.
Owner occupiers have been but quiet as a normal, and
also investors have been a bit quieter than normal. So
as interest rates force and conditions get a bit easier,
we could start to see them coming back out of woodwork,
and I think investors will certainly be an interesting story

(01:10:14):
in twenty twenty five, there's mortgage rates come down Brits,
those rental fields improvement, but top ups to keep these
properties going shrink, and they could start to become a
bit more interested again.

Speaker 3 (01:10:25):
Yeah, to talk to us about that a bit more.
How much more activity do you think we're going to
see from investors or where does the OCR need to
be before investors start getting really interested.

Speaker 18 (01:10:35):
Well, the level will differ depending on each individual investor,
how much equally they have that sort of thing. But certainly,
if the OCR keeps falling, where we see it fall
towards that three percent figure and preach the next year
or so, you can easily see mortgage rates down towards
the five five and a half percent range, which I
think is probably where things would start to get a

(01:10:56):
lot more interesting for investors.

Speaker 3 (01:10:58):
Now.

Speaker 18 (01:10:58):
On the other hand, also got lending rules in place there,
and in particular the debt to income ratio caps and
faster mortgage rates fall, the sooner those dties will kick in,
which will tend to work in the other direction, and
they are they range at the entire property market, but
I think it probably will be investors who will feel
DT eyes a bit more so, it's really interesting year

(01:11:19):
for investors. Lower mortgage rates help, but at the same
time DTIs might push in the other direction.

Speaker 3 (01:11:24):
Yeah right, Yeah, you kind of got two competing forces there,
the accelerator and the brake peel being hit at once.
So what are you expecting in terms of house prizes
over the next week period.

Speaker 18 (01:11:33):
Well, I think what we've seen over the past five
or six months is that prices have been falling. I
suspect that could end pretty soon because we're seeing a
sentiment boost already from lower mortgage rates, not to mention
the direct impact on finances. So I think this little
downturn will probably end pretty soon, but not necessarily sure
that turns into a major up to either, because of

(01:11:54):
course jobs are being lost so we can labor market. Certainly,
there's a challenge for the house of market. There's still
a lot of listings out there, so buyers do have
the pricing power, and then of course the debt to
incumber ratio restrictions kicking in as morgitrops fall, So I
think presps it down to an end, but also not
necessarily an upturn starting straight away either, So I fairly

(01:12:15):
feel sort of quiet to our two months.

Speaker 20 (01:12:17):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:12:17):
Right, when we look at the RB and Z commentary
from today, I mean only so much you can read
into for a November cup. But given November then goes
into what is almost three months before the next decision,
where do you think we are sitting in terms of
the Reserve Bank's next move?

Speaker 20 (01:12:34):
Yeah?

Speaker 18 (01:12:34):
I think if the data involves as we think it, well,
if we still see some weakness out there in the economy,
we see inflation playing ball and behaving nicely and continuing
to fall, then I think you have to be looking
at another point five percent cup in November gives that
sort of relief over that Christmas period and they come
back and assess in the new year. So I mean

(01:12:55):
you're probably looking at another point folk scent cup provided
the data goes to plant right.

Speaker 3 (01:13:00):
Calvin, appreciate it. Thank you. Calvin Davidson is core Logic's
chief property economist. Thirteen past six.

Speaker 2 (01:13:08):
Crunching the numbers and getting the results. It's Heather dupic
Ellen with the Business Hours thanks to my HR, the
HR platform for SME on News Talks.

Speaker 3 (01:13:17):
EDB sixteen US six. You're with Jacktaime on News Talks B.
In a few minutes. We're going to get the market
reaction to the OCR decision today. But first, New Zealand
Herald Wellington Business editor Jane tib Trainey is with us
Yielder king on a second Jane Yiolder, Hello, Jack, how
are you doing?

Speaker 19 (01:13:34):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:13:35):
Very good. Thanks, now that I've managed to tune your
microphone up. So banks were pretty quick off the mark
in announcing their cuts to floating mortgage rates yesterday afternoon.
What about since the announcement how banks reacted.

Speaker 13 (01:13:46):
Yeah, that's right. So actually today banks were quick off
the mark to announce those floating mortgage rates cuts. Most
of the banks came out pretty much as soon as
the Reserve Bank announced was cutting the OCR by fifty
basis point, saying they'd cut their mortgage rates their floating
rates by the same amounts. In fact, I actually received
a press release from ASB before I received one from

(01:14:10):
the Reserve Bank, so they'd pre prepared these statements. It's
made headlines today, but I'm really stoked for people, you know,
with mortgages, and also for the economy more generally. It's
very sluggish. But a part of me is a little
bit cynical, Jack, And the reason is I am wondering
where the banks will cut their mortgage rates as quickly

(01:14:35):
as they cut their savings rates. So I'm wondering whether
they will or sorry, whether they'll cut their savings rates
more quickly then they'll cut their mortgage rates. So yeah,
so all the focuses on mortgage rates, but for the
peer old savers out there, you do have to wonder
whether they will cut those rates quite quickly and basically

(01:14:56):
use this period of changing interest rates to profity.

Speaker 3 (01:15:00):
Yeah right, and they probably do this on the way
up as well, right, So I mean there's always a
delay in saying, well, why isn't my turn deposited anything
like the mortgage rate that I would be paying? And
now that we're on the way down and that the
Reserve Bank is going through the cutting cycle, actually you're
suspicious that we're going to see the same thing.

Speaker 13 (01:15:18):
Yeah, well that is exactly the thing. And this is
actually what happened, as you say, when interest rates were
increased really quickly, we saw bank's profits peak, and you
know that created a lot of riff rap and might
have contributed towards the market study into banking competition and
also this Parliament Select Committee inquiry into competition in the sector.

(01:15:41):
The profitability actually hit sort of, you know, a seventeen
year high last year, the new interest margin on the
back of that phenomena. Now, the reason I'm a little
bit wary this time around as we see interest rate
cuts is because we're seeing signs of this happening based
on August start from the Reserve Bank. So between July

(01:16:01):
and August, the amount of interest all together that banks
received from people with mortgages that increased, but the amount
of interest banks paid savers that actually decreased for the
first time in this cycle. So in August we saw
signs of this disconnect where you know, they are still

(01:16:22):
receiving a lot of interest, but they are not paying
as much interest. So it's early days and I sort
of hate to be the negative person on what's quite
a positive day, but I think this is something that
is worth keeping an eye on.

Speaker 3 (01:16:36):
Yeah, yeah, that's a really really good point. What do
you reckon the chances are that they are going to
get something, you know, get cut down to something like
the neutral rate anytime soon. What do you make of
that argument that if actually inflation is somewhere near two
percent when the latest CPI numbers come out next week.
Why shouldn't the Reserve Bank be cutting to something like
the neutral rate.

Speaker 13 (01:16:57):
Well, you know, that's a fair question. And today this
statement the Reserve Bank didn't really provide any forward guidance.
It tried to keep its options open by saying, you know,
their risks are this way and their risks that way.
You know, And I think some commentators have come out
and said that they reckon that in November, the IRB
and Z will will really you know, if inflation is

(01:17:20):
in fact where it needs to be, they will there
will be a case for it to cut by seventy
five basis points, particularly ahead of the long Christmas break.
So I think that is, you know, that's what the
experts are saying. So that sounds plausible. Other than that,
you know, it's hard to know. There are still number
of uncertainties and there are still economists worried that there
might be some pent up demand, you know that if

(01:17:42):
they cut those rates too much too soon, people will
get too excited and head out, probably into the property market,
and you know, cause a bit of havoc there. So
I mean it's all still still yet to be seen.

Speaker 3 (01:17:56):
Really, Yeah, right, that makes sense. Thanks, And I appreciate
it that as New Zealand here World Wellington Business Editor
Jane tib Traineye twenty one past six on Newstalks, he'd be.

Speaker 2 (01:18:05):
If it's to do with money, it matters to you
The Business Hour with Jack Tam and my HR, the
HR solution for busy smys fine news talks, it'd.

Speaker 3 (01:18:16):
Be we need three pass six on news talks. He'd
be the market at price in an eighty percent likelihood
of a fifty basis point cut to the OCI today.
Caitlin Parker from ILSE from Milton and Esset Management as
with us this evening, Koda, Hi, Harri you yeah, very well. Thanks.
How did the market react to the decision?

Speaker 9 (01:18:34):
Yeah, look like you said once, it wasn't a short thing.
It wasn't a major surprise to the market. So initially
we saw interest rates move a bit lower on the
back of it. The two year hotel interest rate was
down abouto point one percent. Currency was also a bit weaker,
but it wasn't a significant move given largely expected and
it was really in New Zealand's shares where we saw
the biggest reaction and in the day you know of

(01:18:56):
for about one point seven five percent, and that's because
they're so yield, interest rates sense stuff, And it really
feels like the share market was actually waiting for some
proof of this point five percent cut, unlike the currency
and interest rate markets, and we really saw the market
rally on the back of it. So, you know, companies,
property companies like Precinct and keep the property group up
to three percent, retirement villages like Oceania up two and

(01:19:18):
a half percent. But ultimately, look, it was a one
page statement and the orbans that they really played it
with straight back.

Speaker 3 (01:19:24):
Yeah, you know, obviously the market was expecting things today.
But how much do you think that market pricing played
into the decision? Is there any way to note?

Speaker 9 (01:19:34):
Its actually quite interesting. So Urbien Dead did mention in
that small statement that they did discuss both the point
twenty five percent cut and a point five percent cut,
and obviously they landed up the latter, and because that
was most consistent with maintaining low inflation while also seeking
to avoid unnecessary instability. So by that it's essentially a
small knowledge that the market was expecting that point five

(01:19:56):
percent cut though in order for them to avoid you know,
interest rates moving like largely lower on the back of
them delivering a lower rate cut, that it was somewhat
taken into their consideration.

Speaker 3 (01:20:08):
Yeah, it's interesting because it's it's very much an inexact
science trying to get hit around how the Man Free
Policy Committee makes these calls. But interesting to see that line,
as you say in the commentary today, So is the
market still expecting another fifty basis point cut in November
or is twenty five more likely? Could we even see
a seventy five Yeah, look as it.

Speaker 9 (01:20:28):
Stands, it is, and there was no four guidance in
that statement today. But I suppose on the flip side,
there was no pushback to the market currently expecting another
point five percent cut in November. And the next cast
is is really an inflation report that we'll get next week.
So I reckon if that even comes in a smidge
stronger than expectating expected, you could actually see the market

(01:20:49):
starting to price in a potential of a point seventy
five percent cut, right, And the last time we saw
it cut bigger than point five percent was March twenty twenty.
But it really comes down to the orbens. I believe
that they have inflation under control, so any worry of
an inflationary threast coming back, it could actually move the
door open for a larger cut. And November is the
last meeting, right, so they're not going to meet again

(01:21:10):
after November until mid February, so that's a long time.
So you really could justify it if the data proves
that a larger cut is needed, because even where we
are in there, we're steal in that restrictive territory. So
to get back to neutral, there's still a lot of
scope for interest right cuts to come.

Speaker 3 (01:21:26):
So if we're wanting a seventy five basis point cut,
what number do we need to see next week and
the CPI data.

Speaker 9 (01:21:30):
Is released, Oh look, larger and unexpected. And it also
will depend on the makeup as well. How much of
it is generated domestically will really come into play.

Speaker 3 (01:21:39):
Yeah, hey, thanks so much. Yeah, thanks, Kaitlyn, appreciate it.
That is Kaitlyn Parker from Milford Asset Management. After six thirty,
we'll take a closer look at these university rankings and
how the New Zealand unis have been affected. It's almost
sex thirty though you reject time. This is the news dogs.

Speaker 1 (01:21:55):
He'd be.

Speaker 2 (01:22:02):
Crunching the numbers and getting the results is Jack Team
with the Business Hour thanks to my HR the HR
solution for busy smys on News Talks. Take a.

Speaker 3 (01:22:35):
News Talks V. You are Jack Tame. So good news
at Northland today and I think, honestly we have to
do a bit of a hat tip to Northland MP
Grant mcallum, Transpower and its contractor om Exom are going
to make a one million dollar payment to projects that
are going to benefit Northland after the collapse of that
power pylon. Now, look the one million dollar goodwill payment

(01:22:57):
and it has been called a good will payment at
the stage, is nothing thing compared to the estimates for
the financial loss caused by that power pylon not having
its bolts on or not having the nuts on the
bolts at the right time. So the estimates I think
range from about thirty seven and a half million to
eighty million dollars. Power was cut to eighty eight thousand
Northland homes. But under the law as it stands, Transpower

(01:23:21):
and its contractor actually had no legal requirement to pay
any kind of restitution. Anyway, Grant McCallum and a few
others have been banging the drum on this and saying
actually Transpower and its contractor have a responsibility to the
people of Northland to try and do right by those people.
So that now it's a one million dollar payment today
it's a good will payment. Apparently it's just going to
go into projects they're going to be assisting with regional

(01:23:42):
development in Northland and it's going to go to the
Regional Development Agency and this is what they say is
going to do. It's going to help with resilience initiatives
and projects that will deliver long term economic benefits for
the people and businesses of Northland. So look, it is
a result. Is it a perfect result, Absolutely not, but
it's better than nothing. Million bucks heading to Northland twenty
four to seven on News Talk zed be Team and

(01:24:05):
not a single New Zealand university improved their placing in
this year's World University Rankings. The country's top institution, Auckland
University has dropped two places to one hundred and fifty,
second place outside of the top two hundred where universities
are measured and where universities are measured in bands Otago
University has reached its lowest ranking ever, now sits in

(01:24:25):
the three hundred and fifty to four hundredth band. Lincoln
University has dropped to sit in the five hundred to
six hundred band. Chris Wheelan is University's end Z chief
executive and is with us this evening.

Speaker 1 (01:24:36):
Good evening, good evening.

Speaker 3 (01:24:38):
What do you make of these numbers?

Speaker 16 (01:24:41):
Look, it's it's a concern, but it's not a big
problem yet. The number the movements are quite small, but
they are part of a slow and continuous slight drop.

Speaker 3 (01:24:53):
Yeah, so what do you put that down to?

Speaker 16 (01:24:56):
Look, Ultimately, it comes down to simple funding. University systems
been under quite a bit of stress financially for the
last few years. I mean, we're managing our way through it,
but simple factors. We've had inflation running at about nineteen
percent twenty nineteen, but government funding has only gone up
by about nine percent over that period. We're just struggling

(01:25:18):
to really just keep up with other countries overseas around
quality of teaching and research, the stuff that underpins the rankings.

Speaker 3 (01:25:24):
But have those other countries overseas not also had you know,
cut relative to inflation to their funding.

Speaker 16 (01:25:30):
Absolutely, but you're talking about starting for a very different baseline.
So in the US, for example, the average funding for
students about double that in New Zealand. It's about fifty
seven to fifty eight percent more in the UK, about
twenty seven twenty eight percent more in Australia. So they've
got further to go before they start seeing I think

(01:25:51):
the kind of cuts that we are having to manage
at the moment.

Speaker 3 (01:25:53):
So people who aren't necessarily familiar with how the system works,
how are these rankings actually.

Speaker 16 (01:25:58):
Meeted Well, that's a problem in its own right. So
they were set up. There are three major ranking systems.
They all came into existence in the late two thousands.
They were they very much led to successful consulting businesses
for the three organizations that do it. The two big
ones as far as we're concerned are Times Higher Education

(01:26:20):
and Quacha Shelley Simon's or QS. They tend to measure
what's easy to measure, not what's really important to our students.
So they tend to measure things like research cycation rates,
academic reputation, things like staff student ratios. They don't really
measure things like quality of teaching or even things like,

(01:26:43):
you know, just how good universities are at getting jobs.
So with that in mind, a lot of students, of
course rely on them, but they don't necessarily they're not
necessarily reporting things that students think they are.

Speaker 3 (01:26:55):
Yeah, right, but they're being said. I would have thought
like the quality of academia being you know, coming out
of an institution would be really important. I mean that
has all sorts of implications for our border economy as well.

Speaker 16 (01:27:07):
Look, absolutely, and we do know that a lot of things,
all things being equaled, that academics who are thinking about
whether they should apply for a job overseas, actually they
will look at rankings because it does actually measure things
that they care about, so research reputation, research impact, which
is usually a good indication of you know, are they

(01:27:27):
likely to get support for their research activities while they're here.

Speaker 3 (01:27:30):
To what extent do international students look at these rankings?

Speaker 16 (01:27:34):
A surprising amount. So we know from surveys that about
eighty three percent of international students at least consider the rankings,
and about seventeen or eighteen percent. It's actually a key
factor in where they decide to go. So there may
be a range of other factors, but ultimately they may
go this university's ranked higher than that university, where therefore
going to that university.

Speaker 3 (01:27:54):
So what will today's numbers mean for international students coming
to New Zealand.

Speaker 16 (01:28:00):
Well, again, it'll be part of a long term sort
of trend. I mean, you know, we haven't seen any
major movements today. The movements are relatively minor. All of
our universities are still in the top two percent of
degree granting institutions internationally, so we don't have an overall
problem with quality. And the other important thing to remember is,

(01:28:21):
you know, it's a very competitive environment out there. The
underlying metrics that are used to make up rankings for
all of our universities have actually been going up long term.
Just other universities are going up faster than us, and
so we're being squeezed down somewhat.

Speaker 3 (01:28:36):
Ah, that's intriguing. I hadn't I appreciated that. So if
you compare where our universities are just at the kind
of core numbers compared to ten or fifteen years ago,
that they are actually in a better place despite COVID
and everything else.

Speaker 16 (01:28:49):
Yeah, we're doing very well, and we're doing I think
exactly you know where we're exactly the same in New
Zealand as we are for probably every other developed economy.
We have publicly funded universities where governments are wanting more
and more better teaching, better research, better graduate outcomes, better
transfer of knowledge. So it's a good thing long term
that these you know that our absolute scores are going up,

(01:29:12):
but it is a problem long term the fact that
our relative scores are going down, because it does make
us a bit less competitive for staff and students.

Speaker 3 (01:29:19):
So what needs to change in order for these universities
to do better?

Speaker 16 (01:29:23):
Look, fundamentally, as public universities, seventy percent of our funding
either comes from or is controlled by government. It's government,
you know, having to manage alongside other priorities, just keeping
the investment up in universities.

Speaker 3 (01:29:36):
Right, So keep keeping it up and not increasing it,
just maintaining it.

Speaker 16 (01:29:40):
Well, at least maintaining it. Increasing would be nice. But
you know, I read the same economic data that you do.

Speaker 3 (01:29:46):
Yeah, is there a role that universities have here as
well when it comes to consolidating programs and you know,
maybe even you know, consolidating whole departments.

Speaker 16 (01:29:56):
Look, there is, I mean, it's one of the features
of you knowities in kind of the Western world. They
were all kind of set up in the nineteen eighties
under different public policy to be run on competitive lines.
So the whole theory was that they should compete for students,
they should compete for research funding. That was a way
of making sure that the university's qualifications and research would

(01:30:17):
be high quality, relevant. So it's basically meant you've had
baked into the system for a very long time, now
this requirement that they actually be competition. But of course,
now as you say, you know, there are real opportunities
I think for us to do more collaboration. We already
do a lot, so we already do things like joint procurement,

(01:30:38):
we share infrastructure, we share research facilities. I think there
is opportunity to do more. Of course, the hardest time
to do those kind of collaborations is when money is tight.
It really does take time and money to collaborate and
to build the infrastructure, and it takes years to realize
their benefit.

Speaker 3 (01:30:56):
Appreciate you do, Chris. That is universities end in chief
executs of Chris Well And thank you very much for
your feedback as well.

Speaker 5 (01:31:02):
Jack.

Speaker 3 (01:31:03):
Just looking at some of the PhD subjects and studies
woild show you the very poor quality of research in
our universities. We made many more scientific studies not sociology
and education topics. I mean, I think you can have both,
can't you if you want to send us a text
ninety two ninety two as our text number. So you
know in Australia today, you know how the Melbourne Rebels

(01:31:24):
have been ditched. They have launched a lawsuit against Rugby Australia.
This is probably the last thing that Rugby Australia needs,
but also getting ditched was the last thing that Melbourne
Rebels needed. So they're seeking quote significant damages from Rugby
Australia in a lawsuit after they were dissolved by the
governing body. They say that they're a member of Rugby Australia,
they had legally expectation that they would be treated fairly.

(01:31:44):
They said they weren't treated fairly relative to other clubs
or other members. So anyway, they are taking Rugby Australia
through the Federal Court. So that is going to be
very interesting. Probably doesn't bode terribly well for the future
of the code across the ditch. Anyway, after the break,
we're going to take you to the UK and Europe.
Right now, it's quarter to seven.

Speaker 1 (01:32:02):
Whether it's Macro micro or just playing economics.

Speaker 2 (01:32:05):
It's all on the Business Hour with Jack Tam and
my HR the HR solution for busy SMEs, News Talks Ippi.

Speaker 3 (01:32:14):
The largest range of tires online thirteen to seven. On
News Talks, He'd be UK correspondent Devin Gray is with
a susidne Hi Gvin Hither Jack. This awful story in
Belgrade in Serbia and a fourteen year old boy who
listeners might remember killed nine children in a security guard
in a shooting. Now he's given evidence at his parents
trial behind closed doors. Tell us about that well.

Speaker 19 (01:32:38):
Since the attack back in May of last year, the
boy's been held in a psychiatric institution, but as a
fourteen year old in Serbia, he can't be put on
trial because he's below the age of criminal responsibility. Instead,
the authorities are prosecuting the parents, saying and accusing them
of a serious act against general safety as the quote

(01:32:58):
being used in order, really that they didn't secure the
weapons that they had and ammunition that they had at
their home. They didn't secure those properly. Now the couple
deny the charges, but the boy, who's only been identified
as KK, has been brought to the court by a
special escort. It's the first time he's left the psychiatric
hospital and has been questioned as a witness in it,

(01:33:20):
not as the accused, as I said, it's his parents
who are on trial, and he got questioned by the
prosecuted defense lawyers and also crucially the families of the
dead and wounded. Indeed, one mother of a murdered child
asked him questions and he responded to them. He took
the handgun to the school when he was just thirteen

(01:33:43):
and opened fire. Eight of the nine children he murdered
with girls, and the court has continued to hear the
various testimonies that have come in. This is obviously a
case that's dominating news in Europe, and the famili's lawyer
says that the it lived a normal life before the
shooting and no court process would be able to establish

(01:34:05):
what led him to the attack.

Speaker 3 (01:34:06):
Such a sad story, isn't it now? Gevin. The UK's
population has increased by one percent in a year. What's
that down to?

Speaker 19 (01:34:15):
Yeah, well, net International migration, Jack, as if that was
a surprise. We've gone from sixty seven point six to
sixty eight point three million people by the middle of
last year. The most recent figure so that's an extra
six hundred and sixty two four hundred, an increase of
one percent. It's the largest annual numerical and percentage increase

(01:34:39):
since records began in nineteen seventy one. And what's interesting
about this is actually quite a few people are leaving
the UK and indeed we had more deaths than births
in the UK last year. But it's this international migration
people coming in from abroad, that is pushing the figure
up and up and up. And indeed, last weekend, one

(01:35:01):
of the days, nearly one thousand people crossed the English
Channel illegally in small boats in a single day to
claim asylum. And that's going to be one of the
factors pushing up this incredible figure. And we are now
becoming rapidly becoming one of the most densely populated nations
in the world.

Speaker 3 (01:35:20):
Yeah, so they's fascinating. So that's knit migration, right, So
once you account for all the people who have left
and all of the people who have arrived, that's an
increase of one percent, which is huge especially when yeah,
especially when you do have many people leaving the shores.
Now a Dutch museum has had to pick an artwork
out of the bin. For anyone who's ever said, oh

(01:35:42):
I could have drawn that, or oh that looks like garbage,
in this case it kind of was.

Speaker 19 (01:35:47):
Yes, it was Jack and rather amusingly I read on
social media plenty of people saying it should have been
left in the bin as well. But this Dutch museum
has a piece of artwork called all the Good Times
Spent Together by a French artist called Alexandra Lave And
what it basically is is two dented beer cans left
on the floor, emptied right. They were exhibited bizarrely in

(01:36:12):
the museum's lift, as if they were been left behind
by construction workers. Now, of course, somebody who was a
technical guy maintaining the lift was on holiday. His replacement
didn't realize it was an artwork and simply threw them
in the bin. I suppose, thankfully they managed to find
them before they went to the scrap peep. The cans
have been cleaned and placed at the museum's entrance. And yeah,

(01:36:35):
if you get the time, have a look at the
artwork and tell me what you think. I really do
think this is one of those that you think I
could have done that. Of course, give us the name again,
all the good times we spent together, all.

Speaker 3 (01:36:47):
The good times we spent together. Okay, I mean.

Speaker 19 (01:36:49):
Yeah, I'm not exaggerating to say it's just two beer cans.

Speaker 3 (01:36:53):
Yeah right, okay, yeah, well yeah, okay, yeah, I'm looking
at it now and it is just two two beer cans.
One of them's a we dent't the other one seems okay,
So that's yeah. Now it's in the eye of the beholder,
as they say, Gavin, that's all right. I like I'm
not nearly cultured enough. Hey, thank you so much. Appreciate
your time as ever you gained. Your correspondent, Gavin Gray

(01:37:16):
with us there. Well, I suppose it says something, doesn't it.
It does say something, and it's only added to the
art's mystique that it found its way to the bin.
A to seven on newsdalgs EDB.

Speaker 2 (01:37:27):
Whether it's macro, micro or just plain economics, it's all
on The Business Hour with Heather Duplicy Ellen and my HR,
the HR platform for SME US TALKSB.

Speaker 3 (01:37:38):
Hey, thank you very much for your texts this evening.
Mary sent me a note to say Jack regarding universities.
The decline in our universities ranking internationally is of major
concern as far as I'm concerned, Jack, If the universities
are not going to wake up to the problem that
they have in many of their institutions, then they won't improve.
We are sick of their woke attitudes. Thank you for
that ninety two to ninety two if you want to

(01:38:00):
flick us a message here this evening, So the black
Caps are facing off in their first Test against India
a week from now in Bangalore. Bit of a blow
for the first Test of Tom Latham's time as the
black Caps Test captain, came Williamson is going to be
missing the start of that Test series with a groin strain.
I mean it's going to be an upheld battle, I

(01:38:21):
think in the subcontinent, especially if the Sri Lankan their
recent Sri Lunkan series was anything to go by. The
black Caps are going to have a tricky time of things,
but obviously not made any easier without came Williamson to
call on. So Nick Buley is on Sports Talk this evening.
He is going to look at what that will mean
for the black Caps and what their chances are really
going to be like against that very strong Indian squad.

(01:38:43):
That is it for me though today. Thank you very
much for all your texts and emails. Kenzi and Andy
have been doing the difficult things and Andy has chosen
us a song to play out the evening. What do
you got, bud Bit of a boogie? We've got Charlie
Xy ex bit of a boogie, Bit of a boogie.
I really have to sell the song. Ali XCX is
coming to New Zealand.

Speaker 20 (01:39:01):
The rumors are true.

Speaker 22 (01:39:02):
She's coming to Laneway, right.

Speaker 3 (01:39:05):
And I mean this has been rumored for some time.
I'd'm kind of fan of Charlie x X.

Speaker 22 (01:39:09):
Yeah, would you pay for a whole festival ticket to
go see her? Because I looked at the lineup and
I think people just pretend that they're like thisss music.
Don't want to see Charlie x Ye, well that Charlie xx,
but everyone else. The next artist is called Bebadoobe. It
seems to me that Barry can't swim.

Speaker 3 (01:39:24):
Well can't he? I don't know. I don't know about that.

Speaker 22 (01:39:28):
But people, I think go to these festivals and pretend
they love it.

Speaker 3 (01:39:31):
Okay, yeah, right, okay, do you know what I'm just
gonna at the rundown now, of the of the bands
that are performing.

Speaker 22 (01:39:38):
You know one of them, don't you.

Speaker 3 (01:39:39):
It's Charlie xx Yeah, man, yeah, So would you spend
Turner bucks just for Charlie XCX Maybe not? Yeah, or bibadoobey.
I think it's for me anyway, that's all right, Yeah,
thank you very much for doing the tough stuff, for
seeing bro. We will let Charlie x X play things out.
Almost seven o'clock, This is Newstalk's CB.

Speaker 2 (01:40:01):
For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news Talks at B from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio

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