Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on the economic impact of the US election

It's less than a week until voters in the US will cast their ballots and determine a new president - and experts are wondering about the economic impacts.

No matter who wins, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have policies that could have implications regarding the future of international business.

NZ Herald business editor at large Liam Dann explains what the candidates could do for New Zealand's economic future.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Ever Duple c Ellen, Heather Kara and Nate Traveller YouTube's
endorse ag one also thank you. Yeah, we're going to
talk to johnn about that after help Us six. Now
it's seventeen pass six, just six more sleeps to go
until voters in the US decide who's going to be
the next president. We're going to be watching it like
hawks as well, because of course it might affect the
New Zealand businesses. Liam dan is The Herald's Business editor

(00:21):
at large.

Speaker 2 (00:21):
He Liam, Hey, Heather.

Speaker 1 (00:23):
Okay, who do you reckon would be better for our economy? Oh?

Speaker 2 (00:26):
Well, I guess you know. It's a weird one because
we don't really know a lot, partly because I think
Kamala Harris has been a bit vague on policy. We
don't know exactly what's coming there. And then of course
good old Donald Trump. He is so incredibly specific about
all the things he's going to do, and then it's
very hard to know, you know, exactly whether he will

(00:49):
do them because what he sees is sometimes a bit different.
The trade stuff I think makes life a little bit
difficult for New Zealand. So that's that's the big policy
from Donald trum Rump is putting ten percent tariffs on
everything that goes into the United States, and then sixty
percent tariffs on Chinese goods, which could also have some

(01:09):
weird you know, if you think about it, what's that
going to mean for all the Chinese goods around the world.
It may actually mean some cheap stuff coming our way,
which we don't probably need more of, but maybe electric
cars all that kind of stuff. You know, it's kind
of it's kind of uncharted territory. It's a big experiment.
So even there, we don't know for sure. I know

(01:30):
that you know that the big mainstream economists at the
IMF and the World Bank are a bit nervous about
the prospect of Trump winning, which you know looks like
a pretty good chance. I guess you'd have to say,
just because of the uncertainty. It could be good for
sheer markets, could be good for our kiwi save, but
they still expect a bit of a trumptump.

Speaker 1 (01:50):
It was great last time, wasn't it.

Speaker 2 (01:52):
Yeah, I mean, you're not quite sure what it would
be predicated on so much this time because he's talked
about the tax cuts again. But there is a possibility
that he just can't do them, partly for congre because
he might have Congress, but also because the deficit is
so huge in the United States, you get in that
same situation that Terresa May had in the in the UK,

(02:14):
which is that you're up against bond markets, which absolutely
punish your economy if you start trying to do things
like cut taxes while you have a giant deficit. And
as you know, I think it was James Cavell Caville,
Bill Clinton's advisor once said, you know, the only thing
he'd ever want to come back as to be the
bond market because everybody is scared of it, and you

(02:35):
know that that could just stymy those plans. So there's
a bit of skeptic tax cuts. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (02:40):
On the other hand, Liam, I mean it kind of counterintuitively,
Donald Trump actually is pretty good for world peace, right,
So isn't that actually weirdly good for us because if
you settle down all those tensions, we benefit.

Speaker 2 (02:54):
Yeah, I mean it weirdly could be. If you think
about our worst case scenario in New Zealand, it's probably
some sort of military action around Taiwan, right, because we
have to pick aside and if if it's more likely
in that sort of scenario which hopefully doesn't come to that.
You that you'd have Donald Trump sitting down with Jujun

(03:15):
Puring or maybe deciding not to get involved or something
which should which potentially could make life easier for New Zealand.
But you know that's I guess, you know, big geopolitical stuff,
it's hard. It's hard to know. I guess that's what
gets me. It's it's all very very uncertain, including obviously
the result, which you know we've got to We're so

(03:36):
close now that it's very hard for the polls to
really tell us what's going to happen in six counties
and three different states. You know, it's crazy how tired
it gets in America totally.

Speaker 1 (03:46):
Liam, thanks very much for talking us through it. To
appreciate it is Liam Dan, the Herald's business editor at large.

Speaker 2 (03:51):
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