Geoffrey Miller: Geopolitical analyst on how New Zealanders will feel about getting cosy with the Trump administration again

Questions over how New Zealanders will be feeling when the Government starts getting cosy with US Presidential-elect Donald Trump.

Former Prime Minister Helen Clark suggested on the radio this morning that it might want to rethink its moves to get closer to the US.

She believes it wouldn’t be a popular thing to do to be seen to be strategically realigning with an administration which is volatile and unpredictable on foreign policy.

Otago University geopolitical analyst Geoffrey Miller joined Heather du Plessis-Allan.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So of course the question now is how are key
We's going to feel when New Zealand starts getting cozy
with Donald Trump. Former Prime Minister Helen Clarke this morning
when the radio suggested the government might want to rethink
its moves to get even closer to the US.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
But given the general feeling in the New Zealand public
towards the election of President Trump, I can't think that
it would be a popular thing to do to be
seen to be st strategically realigning with an administration which
is volatile and quite unpredictable on foreign policy.

Speaker 1 (00:31):
Jeffrey Miller is a geopolitical relations expert at Victoria University
and with US. Hey Jeffrey, welcome back.

Speaker 3 (00:37):
Good evening.

Speaker 1 (00:37):
Heather has Helen got a point.

Speaker 3 (00:40):
Look, I think everything will be on the table here
and we're going to have a new US administration that
always means a reset. So it's a big question whether
the US will be keen to go through with orcus
under Donald Trump. Remember this was a Biden initiative, so
you know, everything is on the table from both sides.
If it is going ahead, will they want New Zealand
still involved in Pillar two? And will New Zealand want

(01:02):
to be involved. If you're Christopher Luxon and the centrist
trying to position your position yourself, you know, to capture
that center middle ground. Do you want to be associated
with Donald Trump? I mean there are huge numbers of
questions here for New Zealand when it comes to foreign policy,
it's really big.

Speaker 1 (01:18):
Let's look at what Trump's calculation might be so on orcus.
The thing that he will like about UCUS is that
it is aimed at China, which he doesn't like. But
then the thing he will not like about UCUS is
the cost of the thing, right, So how does that
play out? What do you reckon? Ways? Bigger, stronger on him?

Speaker 3 (01:34):
That's right. And Donald Trump is very very transactional. So
if he thinks it's a good deal, if it's in
the interest of the United States, perhaps he will go
through with it. If he doesn't think that the US
is getting a good deal, he'll make the likes of
Australia the United Kingdom pay up a lot more. I
just think it really remains to be seen whether if
UCAS is continued with, whether he will want to have

(01:54):
a bit player as he might see it in New
Zealand getting involved. You know, this was the strategy. You
had this lattice work of all these agreements across the Pacific,
and Joe Biden was very interested in climate change in
the Pacific and re engaging with Pacific island countries. I
think Donald Trump is all about great powers, and if
he wants to stick at the China, he simply will.

(02:15):
He will do it unilaterally. He won't feel the need
to set up all of these multilateral alliances. It will
continue with them, with the likes of New Zealand necessarily,
but you know, we will have to see how things develop.
Of course, Winston Peters is putting a brave face on things,
and he has some good connections. He was Foreign Minister
of course the last time that Donald Trump was in

(02:35):
the White House, so there may be some chances there
for him to use his connections. And he was on
your program yesterday talking about that. So you know, we
let's wait and see.

Speaker 1 (02:45):
Did I hear him saying that we got very close
to an FTA with the US under Trump.

Speaker 3 (02:51):
I did hear that?

Speaker 1 (02:52):
Unbelievable.

Speaker 3 (02:54):
I wonder where that's really come from. I don't really
recall that really being on the table. Donald Trump pulled
out of the CPTPP pretty much on his first day
in office back in twenty seventeen. So I think it's
hard to believe that really there was a bilateral free
trade deal for New Zealand in the off and back
during Trump's first term. But yes, Winston Peters are trying

(03:16):
to put a brave face on things. He's really put
everything in the basket of building closer ties with the
United States. He did that the last time around. He's
been doing this for the last year, and Christopher Luxen
and the government has really very much gone along with that.
It's been a huge sea change when it comes to
New Zealand foreign policy given that New Zealand's biggest trading

(03:36):
partner is China, and neither Christopher Luxeen nor wus St
Peter's have visited China yet in the past year. It's
quite striking the longer that goes on that they haven't
made that trip to China. Tom McClay is there at
the moment, but there will be a chance next week
for both Christopher Luxen and wins Peter's to reconnect with
their Chinese counterparts if they choose to do so at

(03:57):
Apec in Peru and Christopher Luxin could shake hands, perhaps
have a bilateral meeting with Jujumping, and if that's on offer,
I think he should take that opportunity because things are
going to get pretty tough with ten to twenty percent
tariffs from the United States if that does come in.
So there are lots of opportunities, lots of other countries
that New Zealand could work with. In China really is

(04:18):
the big one.

Speaker 1 (04:19):
Do you think that Chris Luxen will get a bit
get the ick about having to get too close to
Donald Trump?

Speaker 3 (04:27):
Yeah, I think the calculations were very different from Winston
Peters and Christopher Luxe. And Winston Peters, I think we'll
be quite happy to work with a Trump administration. When
Jacinda R. Durn had a meeting with Donald Trump at
the UN General Assembly back in twenty nineteen, he described
it as a triumph. He put out a special press
release about it. I don't think that Christopher Luxen would

(04:48):
necessarily see things in the same way. You know, Christopher
Luxen is positioning himself as the big centrist, and you know,
I don't think that Luxeon will necessarily be that keen
to be associated with Donald Trump. Peter's I think will
be so, you know, it could be quite interesting domestically
here whether that leads to some divides and the coalition
over the direction of New Zealand foreign policy. You know,

(05:12):
it really will be very interesting whether this pro us
stance continues. That's been very much the theme of the
past year. But I just think everything is going to
be on the table right now, and everything's going to
be up for debate August and everything really because of
Donald Trump coming into the White House is going to
look like a very different It's going to be a
very different administration to the Joe Biden administration.

Speaker 1 (05:35):
Your job very fun, Jeffrey, Thank you very much for
your time. Jeffrey Melodio, political relations expert at Victoria University,
is making everybody's job run. Frankly, if your politics adjacent,
it's fascinating.

Speaker 3 (05:47):
Now now All Birds For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive.

Speaker 2 (05:52):
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