November 19, 2024 • 3 mins
The pressure on New Zealand's labour market continues to tighten, with job ads falling for the third consecutive month.
Despite these grim figures, one expert has noticed there's light at the end of the tunnel for the economy
Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen explains further.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now job ads have fallen for three months in a row.
There is hope that this might actually be the end
of the thing. We might be seeing a bottoming out here.
And Brad Awson is Informetrix principle economists.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Hey, Brad, good evening.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
What makes you think we're seeing light at the end
of the tunnel here?
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Well, I mean, things do seem like they might be
stabilizing a touch. Some of the fools in the last
couple of months haven't been as huge as what they
were if you go back to sort of earlier in
twenty twenty four, and so when you look at the
latest SEEK data, it does seem to suggest again maybe
a little bit of that bottoming out or stabilization. To
be fair, it's at very low levels. I mean, the
(00:37):
number of job ads out there in the market at
the moment the lowest since May twenty thirteen on my calculations,
excluding that big hit from the lockdown. So you know,
it might be stabilizing, but it's stabilizing very very low.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Yeah, what do you make of the fact that there's
been a bounce up in Wellington?
Speaker 2 (00:55):
There are some odd figures looking through here, Heather, and
it's sort of you know, does make you under but
if there are parts of the economy that are perhaps
doing better than we give them credit for, I mean,
the likes of that Wellington increase a little bit surprise
and giving a lot of the doom and gloom. The
other one that really surprised me was the fact that
job ads in government and defense have lifted for the
last two months. In fact, they are up fifteen percent
(01:17):
month one month in October, so PEPs things maybe not
quite as bad. Also, I think probably highlighting that in
government there has been a lot of change, perhaps a
lot of people that have lost their jobs, and maybe
now government departments trying to rehire in a few areas
where they realize that they need a little bit more capacity.
Long story short, this is still not great news for
the economy. Job numbers are still down, job ads are
(01:39):
still down, and a lot of people are putting in
applications for what are fewer and fewer opportunities. But again
maybe a little bit of that turning point starting to
become clearer in the numbers, which might be again reinforcing
that view of greener shoots next year.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
Now, apart from obviously government and defense, which are the
two places in Wellington that are hiring. What else is?
What other sector is are we talking about here?
Speaker 2 (02:01):
Yeah, I mean in the latest month, so this is
October data. The biggest sort of gain was for banking
and financial services up eighteen percent month on month, and
a few more again changes around to the likes of
design and architecture, call centers, hospitality. So again maybe just
some of those areas that possibly got hit a bit
harder at the start that are now turning around the
(02:21):
other side. When we've looked at activity compared to say
a year ago. Some of the areas that are leased
hit are the likes of banking, design, legal and farming
the worst hit though again probably of no surprise, the
likes of advertising rolls down about fifty three percent year
on year, consulting in strategy down thirty seven percent, and
(02:41):
admin rolls down thirty five So business is still being
a lot tighter on how much money they're willing to
put out in the economy. But again maybe signs that
things aren't continuing to get as much worse and perhaps
than that turning point starting to come around.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
Brad, it's good to talk to you mate, Thank you
so much. It's Brad Olsen, principal economic economist for Matrix.
For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
Now job ads have fallen for three months in a row.
There is hope that this might actually be the end
of the thing. We might be seeing a bottoming out here.
And Brad Awson is Informetrix principle economists.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Hey, Brad, good evening.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
What makes you think we're seeing light at the end
of the tunnel here?
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Well, I mean, things do seem like they might be
stabilizing a touch. Some of the fools in the last
couple of months haven't been as huge as what they
were if you go back to sort of earlier in
twenty twenty four, and so when you look at the
latest SEEK data, it does seem to suggest again maybe
a little bit of that bottoming out or stabilization. To
be fair, it's at very low levels. I mean, the
(00:37):
number of job ads out there in the market at
the moment the lowest since May twenty thirteen on my calculations,
excluding that big hit from the lockdown. So you know,
it might be stabilizing, but it's stabilizing very very low.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Yeah, what do you make of the fact that there's
been a bounce up in Wellington?
Speaker 2 (00:55):
There are some odd figures looking through here, Heather, and
it's sort of you know, does make you under but
if there are parts of the economy that are perhaps
doing better than we give them credit for, I mean,
the likes of that Wellington increase a little bit surprise
and giving a lot of the doom and gloom. The
other one that really surprised me was the fact that
job ads in government and defense have lifted for the
last two months. In fact, they are up fifteen percent
(01:17):
month one month in October, so PEPs things maybe not
quite as bad. Also, I think probably highlighting that in
government there has been a lot of change, perhaps a
lot of people that have lost their jobs, and maybe
now government departments trying to rehire in a few areas
where they realize that they need a little bit more capacity.
Long story short, this is still not great news for
the economy. Job numbers are still down, job ads are
(01:39):
still down, and a lot of people are putting in
applications for what are fewer and fewer opportunities. But again
maybe a little bit of that turning point starting to
become clearer in the numbers, which might be again reinforcing
that view of greener shoots next year.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
Now, apart from obviously government and defense, which are the
two places in Wellington that are hiring. What else is?
What other sector is are we talking about here?
Speaker 2 (02:01):
Yeah, I mean in the latest month, so this is
October data. The biggest sort of gain was for banking
and financial services up eighteen percent month on month, and
a few more again changes around to the likes of
design and architecture, call centers, hospitality. So again maybe just
some of those areas that possibly got hit a bit
harder at the start that are now turning around the
(02:21):
other side. When we've looked at activity compared to say
a year ago. Some of the areas that are leased
hit are the likes of banking, design, legal and farming
the worst hit though again probably of no surprise, the
likes of advertising rolls down about fifty three percent year
on year, consulting in strategy down thirty seven percent, and
(02:41):
admin rolls down thirty five So business is still being
a lot tighter on how much money they're willing to
put out in the economy. But again maybe signs that
things aren't continuing to get as much worse and perhaps
than that turning point starting to come around.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
Brad, it's good to talk to you mate, Thank you
so much. It's Brad Olsen, principal economic economist for Matrix.
For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
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