November 26, 2024 • 6 mins
Homeowners can expect some relief - as the Reserve Bank cuts the OCR down in its final update of the year.
The central bank has slashed the rate 50 basis points today - to sit on 4.25 percent.
It's now forecasting 4.1 percent by March next year, 3.6 percent by the end of next year, with an endpoint of 3.1 percent by March 2027.
ZB political correspondent Barry Soper says Governor Adrian Orr has warned this will depend on how things track - as the economy is in for a slow recovery.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Very so, per senior political correspondence with US now High Barry,
good afternoon. As the government claiming credit for the inflation
coming down sufficiently to have an OCR cut again.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Well your cockles will be warmed, no doubt, Heather, and
it seems that we all should be feeling much warmer
as a result of this fifty point drop. Nikola Willis
cheerfully gave us one example. A family with a five
hundred dollars five hundred thousand dollars mortgage on a twenty
five year term would expect to be better off by
(00:29):
about one hundred and eighty bucks a week, she says.
But that's providing the bank drops the rate from seven
to five point seven five percent. I don't see bank
dropping rates that much. I haven't seen them come down
that much. The average mortgage interstraight in New Zealand is
just under eight percent, seven point ninety four percent.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
Is this floating?
Speaker 2 (00:49):
No, that's that's the average floating. Sorry, and the fixed
rate is five point nine percent. But if you listen
to Adrian or it's both good and uns certain news,
with all saying there's likely to be another fifty basis
point cut in the OCR early next year. But warns
of a slow recovery.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
Economic growth is expected to recover during twenty twenty five
as lower interest rates encourage investment and other spending. Employment growth, however,
it is expected to remain weak until at least mid
twenty twenty five, and for some financial stress will take
time to ease. The Monasty Policy Committee agreed that having
(01:31):
consumer price inflation close to the midpoint of its target
ban puts US in the best position to respond to
any shocks to inflation looking forward.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
So that's good and sort of good news. I suppose,
of course, the government like you indicated earlier as putting
a very glossy picture or painting a glossy picture on
the latest fall. It's a year since they were sworn
in today on they're beginning their first day today. Mister
Nicola Willa says they've delivered what they said they would.
Speaker 4 (02:03):
We promised that with careful fiscal management, we'd get inflation
back under control. We have. We promised that when inflation
was back under control, interest rates would drop.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
They are.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
We promised we would deliver fiscally neutral tax relief to
three point five million New Zealanders.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
We have.
Speaker 4 (02:18):
And for those who say, oh, well, it's just inevitable
that inflation and interest rates come down. Just look over
the ditch.
Speaker 2 (02:25):
Yeah, well the Ossie rate is about the same as
ours two point eight percent. And mortgage rates, She's right,
the mortgage rates are still pretty high in Australia, about
seven point or seven and a half percent. So you
know New Zealand's are doing slightly better than Australia but
not significantly.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
Well what on the are you measuring it on the OCR.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
On the mortgage rates when the OCR there?
Speaker 1 (02:50):
Yeah, I'm not quite sure what Jesus has taking us
a while to do slightly better than they've been doing
better than us the whole other time.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
Hey, so tomorrow is it tomorrow or is it today?
That it was the first day in they begin.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Their first day?
Speaker 3 (03:01):
Ye?
Speaker 2 (03:02):
Today, it was a year ago. Yeah, And I know
whether you saw the Winston Peters interview in the Herald today,
it reminded me of just what the situation was like
in the lead up to the last election when you
came to particularly David Seymour and Winston Peters. Seymour had
described Winston Peters as a crook and the least trustworthy
(03:25):
people person in New Zealand Politics, and Peters responded and
kind of calling Seymour a political cuckold from EPSOM and
comparing him to Chihuahua barking at the front gate. And
they are now sitting around the cabinet table in coalition.
But it was interesting also I thought that you remember
(03:48):
the prime or not the Prime minister. Then the leader
of the opposition, Chris Luxon, was constantly being asked whether
he would sit down with Winston Peters after the election.
He equivercated all the way through, and then finally he
said that yes, he would pick up the phone to
Winston Peters if necessary. And it's interesting to me to
(04:11):
see these three personalities and who is actually getting on
better at the moment. And I suggest that Winston Peters
is getting on much better with Chris Luxon, maybe because
he's overseas or he's been overseas for much of the
past year than what David Seymour now I reckon.
Speaker 1 (04:26):
Because he's he's just more flexible on his principles.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
Well, you know, he has been round of politics and
a long more tea.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
He's much more pragmatic, isn't he He is.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
More pragmatic and David Seymour, he knows what he wants
and he sets out to get it. But sometimes he
obviously gets under one not sometimes quite a lot gets
under Chris Luckson's skin.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
Tell you what, Let's have a look at the next
election though, see which of these two parties goes up
or retains as much of their their vote show and
we'll know which is the right approach to take. Hey,
so when is this David Seymore Willy Jackson debate going
to happen?
Speaker 2 (05:02):
It's not going to happen. Well, what David Seymour has said,
and I've had messages to him, to Dan, he's responded
that he's not going to debate Willie Jackson unless Willie
Jackson apologize, apologizes for calling him a liar. Well, Jackson
refused to do that in the house, and remember he
has kicked out by Jerry Brownlee and Seymour would argue
(05:25):
that you've got to have better parliamentary standards and the
factor is hitter. It's quite easy for Willy Jackson to
get a debate with David Seymour simply by asking him
a question.
Speaker 1 (05:37):
In the house.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
In the House, and he's able to do that. Do
you know he's only done it once in the past year. Well,
I suggest to Willie he gets his thinking cap on,
sits down and comes up with a good question and
they can have a debate to and fro in the house.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
Right advice, actually, Barry, Thank you very much, barrisso for
seeing your political correspondent.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news Talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.
Very so, per senior political correspondence with US now High Barry,
good afternoon. As the government claiming credit for the inflation
coming down sufficiently to have an OCR cut again.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Well your cockles will be warmed, no doubt, Heather, and
it seems that we all should be feeling much warmer
as a result of this fifty point drop. Nikola Willis
cheerfully gave us one example. A family with a five
hundred dollars five hundred thousand dollars mortgage on a twenty
five year term would expect to be better off by
(00:29):
about one hundred and eighty bucks a week, she says.
But that's providing the bank drops the rate from seven
to five point seven five percent. I don't see bank
dropping rates that much. I haven't seen them come down
that much. The average mortgage interstraight in New Zealand is
just under eight percent, seven point ninety four percent.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
Is this floating?
Speaker 2 (00:49):
No, that's that's the average floating. Sorry, and the fixed
rate is five point nine percent. But if you listen
to Adrian or it's both good and uns certain news,
with all saying there's likely to be another fifty basis
point cut in the OCR early next year. But warns
of a slow recovery.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
Economic growth is expected to recover during twenty twenty five
as lower interest rates encourage investment and other spending. Employment growth, however,
it is expected to remain weak until at least mid
twenty twenty five, and for some financial stress will take
time to ease. The Monasty Policy Committee agreed that having
(01:31):
consumer price inflation close to the midpoint of its target
ban puts US in the best position to respond to
any shocks to inflation looking forward.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
So that's good and sort of good news. I suppose,
of course, the government like you indicated earlier as putting
a very glossy picture or painting a glossy picture on
the latest fall. It's a year since they were sworn
in today on they're beginning their first day today. Mister
Nicola Willa says they've delivered what they said they would.
Speaker 4 (02:03):
We promised that with careful fiscal management, we'd get inflation
back under control. We have. We promised that when inflation
was back under control, interest rates would drop.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
They are.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
We promised we would deliver fiscally neutral tax relief to
three point five million New Zealanders.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
We have.
Speaker 4 (02:18):
And for those who say, oh, well, it's just inevitable
that inflation and interest rates come down. Just look over
the ditch.
Speaker 2 (02:25):
Yeah, well the Ossie rate is about the same as
ours two point eight percent. And mortgage rates, She's right,
the mortgage rates are still pretty high in Australia, about
seven point or seven and a half percent. So you
know New Zealand's are doing slightly better than Australia but
not significantly.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
Well what on the are you measuring it on the OCR.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
On the mortgage rates when the OCR there?
Speaker 1 (02:50):
Yeah, I'm not quite sure what Jesus has taking us
a while to do slightly better than they've been doing
better than us the whole other time.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
Hey, so tomorrow is it tomorrow or is it today?
That it was the first day in they begin.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Their first day?
Speaker 3 (03:01):
Ye?
Speaker 2 (03:02):
Today, it was a year ago. Yeah, And I know
whether you saw the Winston Peters interview in the Herald today,
it reminded me of just what the situation was like
in the lead up to the last election when you
came to particularly David Seymour and Winston Peters. Seymour had
described Winston Peters as a crook and the least trustworthy
(03:25):
people person in New Zealand Politics, and Peters responded and
kind of calling Seymour a political cuckold from EPSOM and
comparing him to Chihuahua barking at the front gate. And
they are now sitting around the cabinet table in coalition.
But it was interesting also I thought that you remember
(03:48):
the prime or not the Prime minister. Then the leader
of the opposition, Chris Luxon, was constantly being asked whether
he would sit down with Winston Peters after the election.
He equivercated all the way through, and then finally he
said that yes, he would pick up the phone to
Winston Peters if necessary. And it's interesting to me to
(04:11):
see these three personalities and who is actually getting on
better at the moment. And I suggest that Winston Peters
is getting on much better with Chris Luxon, maybe because
he's overseas or he's been overseas for much of the
past year than what David Seymour now I reckon.
Speaker 1 (04:26):
Because he's he's just more flexible on his principles.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
Well, you know, he has been round of politics and
a long more tea.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
He's much more pragmatic, isn't he He is.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
More pragmatic and David Seymour, he knows what he wants
and he sets out to get it. But sometimes he
obviously gets under one not sometimes quite a lot gets
under Chris Luckson's skin.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
Tell you what, Let's have a look at the next
election though, see which of these two parties goes up
or retains as much of their their vote show and
we'll know which is the right approach to take. Hey,
so when is this David Seymore Willy Jackson debate going
to happen?
Speaker 2 (05:02):
It's not going to happen. Well, what David Seymour has said,
and I've had messages to him, to Dan, he's responded
that he's not going to debate Willie Jackson unless Willie
Jackson apologize, apologizes for calling him a liar. Well, Jackson
refused to do that in the house, and remember he
has kicked out by Jerry Brownlee and Seymour would argue
(05:25):
that you've got to have better parliamentary standards and the
factor is hitter. It's quite easy for Willy Jackson to
get a debate with David Seymour simply by asking him
a question.
Speaker 1 (05:37):
In the house.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
In the House, and he's able to do that. Do
you know he's only done it once in the past year. Well,
I suggest to Willie he gets his thinking cap on,
sits down and comes up with a good question and
they can have a debate to and fro in the house.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
Right advice, actually, Barry, Thank you very much, barrisso for
seeing your political correspondent.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to
news Talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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