Perspective with Ryan Bridge: Is violent crime really dropping?

So it looks like, on paper at least, that this is a big win for the Government's crackdown on crime.

Violent crime is down for the first time in five years - sure, it's only by two percent, but at least it's not going up. 

2019 - up. 2020 - up. 2021, 2022, 2023 - up, up up. 2024 - down. 

And over those five years of increase, violence went up 51 percent. You basically had to just walk down the street and you'd get punched in the eye.

Mark Mitchell and Paul Goldsmith have fired off press releases quicker than a Chinese warship in the Tasman about this, they're crowing and beating their chests, they're very happy. And you can see why - serious assaults have come down, injuries have reduced, ram raids are down massively, total victimisations are down as well.

And here's the kicker - guess what else has changed at the same time?

The prison population has just hit its highest level since 2018. Police foot patrols are up 40 percent.

So it's almost like - if more bad people are in prison, they're not punching us in the streets. I know, completely unbelievable.

And who would have thought police patrolling the streets might actually prevent crime?

This is, of course, not radical stuff. It's basic stuff.

And on these numbers, the Government finally has something tangible to be proud of.

But - and there's always a but with these stats - retail theft is up 12 percent. People are still walking into shops with their tote bags and taking stuff.

And then there's the stats themselves - this survey that they're using here covers a 24 month window, so it's not a crystal-clear picture that we're getting. Plus, the violence numbers that they're looking at come from a mish-mash of police data via Twitter, of all places. This is from the Government release.

So we can expect some blowback from Labour on that.

But you don't need the stats to tell you - what you feel and what I feel and what we feel and see in our neighbourhoods, and that's more cops on the beat and less violence on our streets.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So it looks like on paper, at least this is
a big win for the government's crack down on crime.
Violent crime is down for the first time in five years.
Sure it's only two percent, but at least it's not
going up. Twenty nineteen up, twenty twenty up, twenty twenty one,
twenty two, twenty twenty three up, up, twenty twenty four down.

(00:21):
And over those five years of increase, violence went up
fifty one percent. You basically just had to walk down
the street and you'd be punched in the eye. Mark
Mitchell and Paul Goldsmith have fired off press releases quicker
than a Chinese warship and the Tasman about this. They're
beating their chests very happy, and you can see why.
Serious assaults have come down. Injuries have reduced, ram raids

(00:45):
down massively, total victimizations down as well. And here's the kicker.
Guess what else has changed at the same time. The
prison population just hit its highest level since twenty eighteen.
Police foot patrols, in other words, Bobby's on the beat.
That's up forty percent. So it's almost like if more

(01:07):
bad people are in prison, they're not punching us in
the streets. I know, completely unbelievable, and who would have
thought police patrolling the streets might actually prevent crime. This is,
of course, not radical stuff, it is basic stuff. And
on these numbers, the government finally has something tangible to
be happy about. But there's always a butt with stats.

(01:31):
Retail theft up twelve percent, people are still walking into
shops with their tope bags and taking stuff. And then
there's the stats themselves. So this survey that they're using
on and relying on here covers a twenty four month window,
so it's not a crystal clear picture that we're getting.
Plus the violence numbers that they're looking at come from

(01:51):
a mishmash of police data via Twitter, of all places.
This is the government release, so you can expect some
blowback from labor on that, but you don't need the
stats to tell you what you feel and what I feel,
what we feel and see in our neighborhoods. And that's
a few more cops on the beat. I'm not saying
it's perfect, but a few more cops on the beat

(02:11):
and a bit less violence on our streets. For more
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