Perspective with Ryan Bridge: We've got to take the wins where we can get them

So the Reserve Bank did the predictable thing today and cut 25 basis points.

Good news for mortgage holders, good news for the economy, more money in our pockets and more money to spend. 

Of course it's not going to change the world, it's a quarter of as percent on the wholesale rate. And the wholesale rate is only makes up a portion of the bank's rate. And the bank's rate only matters if you haven't already fixed.

And so far, the banks haven't budged on fixed rates, only floating.

The banks' swap rates are most important here - and there's talk they could fall further too, so we could get a 4.5 percent rate this year instead of the current 4.99 on two year.

Either way,  it's the general direction that we like the sound of.

Loosening, lowering, the direction of travel - to steal a term from Jacinda - is good. And our disposable income is going up. Great.

But of course, the question then becomes - will we actually spend it?

Are we now so worried about trigger-happy Trump and his tariffs that we don't get that new couch or don't upgrade the car or don't get the kids back to ballet class because the subs were too expensive?

The answer is - we don't know yet, because we haven't had any confidence surveys for the past week.

But if Trump doesn't start doing deals soon, then my bet is people will starting pulling back a bit. Maybe not all the way, but enough to slow a recovery.

Just talk to your friends and family and ask how they're feeling about things at the moment.

So there's reason to be weary - but one mustn't be ungrateful.

When inflation is beat and the Government's talking about growth and a budget surplus rather than more borrowing, you've got to take the wins when you get them. No matter how small or teenie-tiny they may be.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So the Reserve Bank did the predictable thing today and
cut twenty five basis points. Good news for mortgage holders,
good news for the economy, more money in our pockets
and more money to spend. Of course, it's not going
to change the world. It's a quarter of a percent
on a wholesale rate, and a wholesale rate is only
a portion of the bank's rate, and the bank's rate

(00:20):
only matters if you haven't already fixed, and as of
five minutes ago, the banks haven't budged on fixed rates,
only on floating. The bank's swap rates are probably more
important here and at the moment. We'll get more on
that later in the program, but for now, it is
the general direction of rates that we like. The sound
of this is good. Loosening lowering the direction of travel,

(00:40):
to steal a term from Descinda Adern is good. Our
disposable income is going up great. But of course the
question then becomes, will we actually spend it? Are we
now so worried about trigger happy Trump and as tariffs
that we don't go and get the new couch, or
we don't upgrade the car, not that it should be
a tesla or an iconic anyway, or maybe we don't

(01:03):
go and get the kids back into ballet class because
the subs were too expensive during the cost of living crisis.
The answer to that question is at this point, we
actually just don't know because we haven't had any confidence
surveys for the past week. But if Trump doesn't start
doing deals soon, then my bet is people will start
pulling back a bit, maybe not all the way, but

(01:23):
enough to slow an economic recovery down. Just talk to
your friends and your family and ask them how they're
feeling about things at the moment. So there's reason to
be wary, but one mustn't be ungrateful when inflation is beat,
the government's talking about growth a budget surplus rather than
more borrowing. You've got to take the wins when you

(01:43):
get them, no matter how small, teeny tiny they may be.
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