China appears to beattempting to form a united front against Washington, by drawing on support from other nations.
President Donald Trump has temporarily backed down on his initial tariffs on most nations except for China.
Asia Business Correspondent Peter Lewis talks to Ryan Bridge about the latest out of China, China’s President Xi Jinping heading to Southeast Asia, and why Japan might be the first to negotiate a deal with the US.
LISTEN ABOVE.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Brian Bridge, Katera Lewis's out Asia business correspondent with US
Now Hi Peter Good evening, Ryan, Now, what is the
latest from China? This is the trade war one hundred
and forty five percent higher than what one hundred and
twenty five we thought, which was bad enough. What's the
latest from Beijing.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Well, we're waiting to see if they actually now retaliate
to that. But to be quite honest, it doesn't matter anymore.
When you have tariffs of one hundred and forty five percent,
it doesn't matter if you make them one hundred and
fifty two hundred, three hundred. In effect, trade between the
US and China has come to an end. It just
(00:37):
becomes impossible with those levels of tariffs for companies to
be able to export between the two countries and still
make money. So there's going to be a lot of
consequences from that. If the two sides, someone doesn't bleak
first and back down. In terms of China, it's going
to have a big impact on their economy. Could shave
(01:00):
maybe two to three percent off of GDP, so that
will slow Chinese growth from five percent maybe down to
as much as two percent. That will feel like a
recession in China. Obviously the economy is still growing, but
such a dramatic slow down that the people of China
will feel it. But they're being very very sanguine about this.
(01:24):
They're sort of very supportive of their governments. They think
Trump is crazy. They like the idea that the government
is standing up to him and not backing down, and
they feel like they're all sort of in it together.
And President chi Jinping is really presenting himself as the
grown up in the room. This is his opportunity to
(01:45):
really stand up and say, look, we are now the
defenders of globalization, of global trade, and we're all in
this together, and let's stand together on this.
Speaker 1 (01:56):
Interesting that approach. They were trying to get other countries
on board, and I saw that they were rebuffed by
Australia during the election campaign there, but trying to get
other countries on board to form the sort of coalition
of free trade. Do you think that's been somewhat undermined
by the fact that Trump has lowered the rate for
everybody else and done a ninety day pause. Their incentive
(02:18):
to join China has now been reduced.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
Exactly. I mean, if you take countries like Malaysia for example,
Malaysia is standing up as the representative of Southeast Asia
and wants to go to Washington and negotiate with Trump.
Now Southeast Asia is China's biggest market, but they clearly
want to go and try and do some sort of deal.
Vietnam has offered to remove all tariffs on US imports,
(02:47):
although strangely that was rebuffed by Peter Navarro who said
that wasn't going to be enough. But nevertheless, they do
want to they do want to negotiate. And also China
has rather reduced its influence with some of these countries
by its aggressive stance in the South China Sea. So Vietnam,
for example, has a lot of disputes on various islands
(03:09):
with China that has really disrupted that relationship and made
it more difficult for countries like Vietnam to align themselves
too closely with China. So even though there may be
some sort of reconciliation between the two, they clearly want
to be part of the US orbit as well, and
they want to try and do some sort of trade
(03:31):
deal with the US.
Speaker 1 (03:34):
Now Shujin is going to hit to Southeast Asia. Is
this a response to the trade war or is this
a pre plan trip.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
It is partly in response to the trade war. He's
going to Malaysia, Vietnam, and Cambodia, so you know, three
sort of key countries. Now, Cambodia is an easy visit
for him because Cambodia and China are very close, they
have good relations. Vietnam and Malaysia, as I've just said,
are going to be more difficult because of geopolitical reasons
(04:03):
and also for trade as well. But Jijipink wants to
present himself now as being the sort of the leader
of global free trade, as the supporter of globalization. If
America doesn't want to do it anymore, then he's saying
we'll do it, China will do it. They're trying to
find ways in effect of cutting sort of the US
(04:25):
out of the trade relationship, building up relationships elsewhere in
the global South, in Southeast Asia, in the Middle East,
and they're saying that, look, our exports are about fifteen
percent of GDP, but US exports are only about sixteen
percent of that sort of trading relationship, So we can
do without the US, we can build up relations elsewhere.
(04:49):
So that is very much part of the strategy of
China to try and mitigate the risks from this.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
Just finally, the Asian Development Banks had something to say
about the terrorists and what they might do to some
of the smaller countries, and we talked about this last week.
I think, you know, little countries like Cambodia who are
never going to be able to buy as much from
the States as the States is selling to them. I mean,
it's just completely impractical. What's the Asian Development Bank saying.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Well, they're saying the same thing that this is really
going to have a very big impact on poorer countries
which have been hit very, very hard by these tarots.
I mean, we're talking about Cambodia, Vietnam with tariffs close
to fifty percent, mianmar small islands in the Pacific, Vanuatu
for example, all being hit with very high tarrets. And
(05:38):
the reason why is because of the strange way in
which Trump has calculated what he says are basically tariffs,
and it's done by basically dividing the trade deficit by
the total amount of trade. So if you're a country
like Madagascar, for example, then in effect just exports one
(05:58):
product to the US, you're going to have a fairly
large trade surplus compared to your overall trade, you get
whacked really hard. And there's nothing that these countries can
do to try and turn those trade surpluses into deficits.
As you say, they just can't afford to buy the
(06:19):
sort of expensive products of America cells. So this will
have a very big impact on the GDP of these
smaller countries. Luckily they've been removed for now, although they
still have ten percent tariffs on them, which for some
of these poor nations is still quite a lot. But
there really is very little they can do in any
(06:39):
negotiation with Trump to try and turn their trade surpluses
into either a balanced trade or a deficit.
Speaker 1 (06:48):
Yeah, really tough position for them. Paid to appreciate your time,
as always, Peter Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent. We'll get to
Gavin Gray in the UK next seventeen to seven.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
For more from Hither Duplessy Alan Drive.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
Listen live to us Talk said Be from four pm weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
Brian Bridge, Katera Lewis's out Asia business correspondent with US
Now Hi Peter Good evening, Ryan, Now, what is the
latest from China? This is the trade war one hundred
and forty five percent higher than what one hundred and
twenty five we thought, which was bad enough. What's the
latest from Beijing.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Well, we're waiting to see if they actually now retaliate
to that. But to be quite honest, it doesn't matter anymore.
When you have tariffs of one hundred and forty five percent,
it doesn't matter if you make them one hundred and
fifty two hundred, three hundred. In effect, trade between the
US and China has come to an end. It just
(00:37):
becomes impossible with those levels of tariffs for companies to
be able to export between the two countries and still
make money. So there's going to be a lot of
consequences from that. If the two sides, someone doesn't bleak
first and back down. In terms of China, it's going
to have a big impact on their economy. Could shave
(01:00):
maybe two to three percent off of GDP, so that
will slow Chinese growth from five percent maybe down to
as much as two percent. That will feel like a
recession in China. Obviously the economy is still growing, but
such a dramatic slow down that the people of China
will feel it. But they're being very very sanguine about this.
(01:24):
They're sort of very supportive of their governments. They think
Trump is crazy. They like the idea that the government
is standing up to him and not backing down, and
they feel like they're all sort of in it together.
And President chi Jinping is really presenting himself as the
grown up in the room. This is his opportunity to
(01:45):
really stand up and say, look, we are now the
defenders of globalization, of global trade, and we're all in
this together, and let's stand together on this.
Speaker 1 (01:56):
Interesting that approach. They were trying to get other countries
on board, and I saw that they were rebuffed by
Australia during the election campaign there, but trying to get
other countries on board to form the sort of coalition
of free trade. Do you think that's been somewhat undermined
by the fact that Trump has lowered the rate for
everybody else and done a ninety day pause. Their incentive
(02:18):
to join China has now been reduced.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
Exactly. I mean, if you take countries like Malaysia for example,
Malaysia is standing up as the representative of Southeast Asia
and wants to go to Washington and negotiate with Trump.
Now Southeast Asia is China's biggest market, but they clearly
want to go and try and do some sort of deal.
Vietnam has offered to remove all tariffs on US imports,
(02:47):
although strangely that was rebuffed by Peter Navarro who said
that wasn't going to be enough. But nevertheless, they do
want to they do want to negotiate. And also China
has rather reduced its influence with some of these countries
by its aggressive stance in the South China Sea. So Vietnam,
for example, has a lot of disputes on various islands
(03:09):
with China that has really disrupted that relationship and made
it more difficult for countries like Vietnam to align themselves
too closely with China. So even though there may be
some sort of reconciliation between the two, they clearly want
to be part of the US orbit as well, and
they want to try and do some sort of trade
(03:31):
deal with the US.
Speaker 1 (03:34):
Now Shujin is going to hit to Southeast Asia. Is
this a response to the trade war or is this
a pre plan trip.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
It is partly in response to the trade war. He's
going to Malaysia, Vietnam, and Cambodia, so you know, three
sort of key countries. Now, Cambodia is an easy visit
for him because Cambodia and China are very close, they
have good relations. Vietnam and Malaysia, as I've just said,
are going to be more difficult because of geopolitical reasons
(04:03):
and also for trade as well. But Jijipink wants to
present himself now as being the sort of the leader
of global free trade, as the supporter of globalization. If
America doesn't want to do it anymore, then he's saying
we'll do it, China will do it. They're trying to
find ways in effect of cutting sort of the US
(04:25):
out of the trade relationship, building up relationships elsewhere in
the global South, in Southeast Asia, in the Middle East,
and they're saying that, look, our exports are about fifteen
percent of GDP, but US exports are only about sixteen
percent of that sort of trading relationship, So we can
do without the US, we can build up relations elsewhere.
(04:49):
So that is very much part of the strategy of
China to try and mitigate the risks from this.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
Just finally, the Asian Development Banks had something to say
about the terrorists and what they might do to some
of the smaller countries, and we talked about this last week.
I think, you know, little countries like Cambodia who are
never going to be able to buy as much from
the States as the States is selling to them. I mean,
it's just completely impractical. What's the Asian Development Bank saying.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Well, they're saying the same thing that this is really
going to have a very big impact on poorer countries
which have been hit very, very hard by these tarots.
I mean, we're talking about Cambodia, Vietnam with tariffs close
to fifty percent, mianmar small islands in the Pacific, Vanuatu
for example, all being hit with very high tarrets. And
(05:38):
the reason why is because of the strange way in
which Trump has calculated what he says are basically tariffs,
and it's done by basically dividing the trade deficit by
the total amount of trade. So if you're a country
like Madagascar, for example, then in effect just exports one
(05:58):
product to the US, you're going to have a fairly
large trade surplus compared to your overall trade, you get
whacked really hard. And there's nothing that these countries can
do to try and turn those trade surpluses into deficits.
As you say, they just can't afford to buy the
(06:19):
sort of expensive products of America cells. So this will
have a very big impact on the GDP of these
smaller countries. Luckily they've been removed for now, although they
still have ten percent tariffs on them, which for some
of these poor nations is still quite a lot. But
there really is very little they can do in any
(06:39):
negotiation with Trump to try and turn their trade surpluses
into either a balanced trade or a deficit.
Speaker 1 (06:48):
Yeah, really tough position for them. Paid to appreciate your time,
as always, Peter Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent. We'll get to
Gavin Gray in the UK next seventeen to seven.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
For more from Hither Duplessy Alan Drive.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
Listen live to us Talk said Be from four pm weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com