Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management spokesperson on capital markets stabilising

The first 100 days of the new Donald Trump administration have seen capital markets undergo a turbulent few months - but things appear to be stabilising.

The tariffs have seen the markets take a noticeable dip, but things have turned the corner this week.

Harbour Asset Management's Shane Solly explains the factors behind this.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Shane solely harbor asset management is with us right now. Hey, Shane,
get out either now, Shane. Why have the capital markets
started to chill out?

Speaker 2 (00:08):
Yeah? Yeah, we've actually seen a bit of a recovery.
Excuse me? Who were shares back up? A pretty solid week.
Last week actually saw the US the S and P
five hundred, that's the main one people talk about four
point six percent tech market Tech, the NAIs deck up
six points in in big balance, even mister muss Tessler
upper eighteen percent. So it's all about some of this

(00:29):
stepping away in tariff. So this moderation and tariffs is
stepping off the heat from both the US and China.
Although offering mister Trump, he keeps on saying, hey, look
we're going to drop tariffs to China, but with something
substantial in return. So the markets like that. Markets are
also like the fact we had some pretty good profit
results out of the US companies, so they've been better

(00:51):
and the outlook's been better. But it's really about this
tariff news been quieter. They're stepping away the US market,
the big S and P five hundred only down one
percent month today, the naisdack, the tech market up on
the on the month. Not many people to pick that.
And our market here today was up point seventy percent,
so we're only down one point four percent. So yeah,
markets are seeing things. We might have seen the worst.

Speaker 1 (01:13):
But were there a couple of share price moves here
in New Zealand that that reflected what's going on with tariffs?

Speaker 2 (01:20):
Yeah, we're not immune. And if you've nailed it, the
healthcare stock, Fish and Park with health care and she
was up today. Is a bit of a delayed reaction
to one of its comparable businesses, ResMed, which is a
US business. They had a better result last thusday and
they specifically talked about some of their products being exempt
from some of the potential US government tariffs and they

(01:41):
had pretty good demands. So the market's been a bit
delayed and picking that up, but it has seen Hey
maybe fishing bikele can be exempt on tariffs as well.
Particularly it's mixing and production and demand stays good in
contrast with main freight. This is the freight we have logistics.
Something great business. But week today and the share price
fell there was definitely one of its US comparator companies

(02:03):
was a bit weak, just highlighting this slow down and
the US economy as trade tariffs started the hit, so
not surprising to see a bit of weakness there. And
then Delegates, the producer of some of the New Zealand's
the Servinyon Blanc, came out with a downgrade, just saying, hey,
look this, we're uncertain about four past growth given this
ten percent increase in tariffs. Good news there, of course,

(02:23):
a really good harvest, good quality, good volume, So plenty
of Sevinyon Blanc to go around.

Speaker 1 (02:28):
What's coming up this week that we should be watching
out for.

Speaker 2 (02:30):
Yeah, pretty busy week here. We've got the aims and
business confidence and activity outloock here in New Zealand out
on Wednesday, and that's about are these green shoots that
we've been talking about continuing? Are they growing? And NAUSI
On Wednesday, we've also got the inflation data and that
may support more cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia
to their official rates. Busy week, predominantly on Wednesday for

(02:51):
the US. The PCEE inflation, that's the one that the
US Central Bank mainly watches, the GDP growth, that's all
out on Wednesday, and then they've got their unemployment numbers
and their manufacturing forecast lead indicator is coming out. It's
all about what does that matter given the liberation data.
Liberation Day has come out subsequent to the data, so

(03:13):
the data maybe old, so it's going to be really
hard for central banks and invest is to read through that.
We've got a bunch of US companies reporting this week
as well. It's almost thirty percent of the US market
by market capitalization. The Chinese have got their purchasing Manager
and disease out on Wednesday. Is there a resign of recovery?
The Japanese have got a Bank of Japan rate decision

(03:35):
on Thursday. They have been increasing rates where they keep
increasing rates given what's happening globally. And then finally, there's
just three elections going on to Canadian and Singapore and
on Saturday we've got the Australian federal election going on.
So there's a lot to think about.

Speaker 1 (03:50):
Yeah, totally a lot of moving parts. Hey, Shane, Thanks
very much, Shane, Sally Harbor Asset Management.

Speaker 2 (03:54):
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