Chris Ogden: Auckland University Global Studies Professor on the ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan

There's fears of escalation between India and Pakistan among experts.

Pakistan claims Indian missile attacks have killed eight people - and India's claiming three died when Pakistan shot down five of its planes.

Auckland University Global Studies Professor Chris Ogden says both countries have nuclear weapons. 

He says that could actually be beneficial. 

"It might actually enhance the possibility for a limited war - this happened back in 1999, when both sides were testing weapons in 1998." 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now to Pakistan and India. The conflict there has escalated today,
hasn't it. Eight people have died this morning in Pakistan
after India launched missiles at three regions, including the Pakistan
controlled and highly contested area of Kashmir. Now. India's campaign
is in response to a deadly terror attack on the
Indian side of Kashmir last week, which saw twenty six
people killed. Chris Ogden is the director of Global Studies

(00:21):
at Auckland University and with US Now, Hey, Chris, hey,
that are you worried about this given that both sides
have nuclear weapons?

Speaker 2 (00:29):
Yeah? Absolutely, And I think also given that people have
died on the Pakistani side, undoubtedly Pakistan will retaliate. If
people die on the Indian side, then you're looking at
kind of mutual escalation.

Speaker 1 (00:40):
Do you think, what do you think the most likely
outcomers here? Is there going to be restraint or is
it going to escalate?

Speaker 2 (00:48):
So I think both sides need to appease nationalists voices
to say that they need to protect their countries. Strangely,
even though both sides have nuclear weapons, it might actually
enhance the possibility for a limited war. And this happened
back in nineteen ninety nine, when both sides attested weapons
in nineteen ninety eight. So I think both sides have
to show strength. They need to say that they're speaking

(01:10):
for their population. So I certainly don't think it's just
going to filter away.

Speaker 1 (01:15):
So what happens next, do you think?

Speaker 2 (01:18):
I think we'll see what the Pakistani response is. I
think they're kind of high up military forces are meeting imminently.
I think undoubtedly they will retaliate. I think there's a
chance that they'll try to retaliate, not maybe as strongly
as India did, in a way to try and maybe
pull it back. But again, it depends what they do.
And certainly if people die on the Indian side, then

(01:40):
there'll be a lot of pressure on the Indian prime
minister to retaliate further.

Speaker 1 (01:44):
So let's say Pakistani exercises restraint and decides it's going
to do something very limited or maybe nothing at all.
Can it actually though, can restrain the extremists, doesn't have
any control there.

Speaker 2 (01:57):
Well, this is the biggest question about Pakistan, which is
who's in control? So is it the government, is it
the military? Is it the intelligence services? And quite often
the intelligence services in the military have been responsible for
funding militants in Kashmir, and there is a very good
chance that they did fund the militants who carried out
the terrorist attack the other week. So it's very difficult

(02:18):
to know exactly who's in control. I would suggest in
this scenario it's more than military than directly the government.

Speaker 1 (02:24):
Interesting. Hey, thank you very much, Chris, I really appreciate this.
Chris Ogden, director of Global Studies at Auckland University.

Speaker 2 (02:30):
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