Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Shane Soley, harbor Asset Management is with us right now.
Hey Shane, Hey, Now how the markets reacted to this
ongoing nonsense from Donald Trump. So on Friday, mister Trump
he's Thritaten to impose a fifty percent tariff on the
European Union from the first of June because they are
being slow and doing a deal with them. And he
also said I'm going to slap a twenty five percent
terrify on Apple and any of the device makers at
(00:21):
the dance start moving to the US. Chimacker didn't really
like it us. She mark, We've done about point seven percent.
US bond markets are flat. Not the reaction we've seen
back in April, when someone like this would have seen
markets lose their lunch. So pep skinning a lit it
less less sensitive announcements over the weekend. Sullivon Delaydon, who
(00:41):
is President of the European Commission, set a phone call
with mister Trump. Said this to a deal. Mister Trump said,
let's extend things out. So look, you know, it's just
a reminder again that we had defaces ongoing uncertainty around tariffs.
We've got a holiday overnight in the US. What we
can see is that the futures. This is people like
me betting on tins of what they think is going
(01:04):
to happen. Have got the US market at one percent,
so we'll be up. He's our market pretty flat than
the day. We're down slightly. The yearmakers ten point four percent,
bonds did nothing. The interesting one is the market is
going anything US to sell US trades coming back, and
so the US dollar is the big decliner and so
the New Zealand dollars up to over sixty against the
US dollargan today. So yeah, there's a bit of movement there.
(01:26):
Obviously quite a few companies reporting this week. Who are
you going to be watching, Shane, Yeah, look well obviously
globally and the video is down on Wednesday. That will
be the big well Wednesday, US Thursday news isand fifteen
companies here in New Zealand Big ones Wednesday, Fish and
bunk We health Care and in Pratol Thursday, we've got
Main Freight in Rhyme and we've got five real estate stocks.
So far the results season has been pretty good, so
(01:47):
hopefully fingers christ that trend continues over the rest of
the week. What are you expecting from the OCR on Wednesday.
I mean it's obviously down. Is it down by twenty five?
Down by fifty? Yeah? No, twenty five is what the
market has priced in. So from three point five to
three point twenty five, it's all about the tone. Is
there going to be more cuts and win and that
might in turn be influenced by how much weight's placed
(02:07):
on those global factors like tariff risk. You know, things
have PAP's gotten less bad. We've always listen, you know,
some New Zealand today to get a bit bitter, So,
you know, can I be talk about putting our pauson? Maybe?
I think go back to what you were talking about
earlier on. I think the general public would like to
see a little bit more of a drop. The market's
only pricing and that the low point and the official
(02:30):
rate cycle is in the Mber twenty five at the
way out that's two point eighty five percent. So we
should get to three twenty five this week. It's whether
how fast and whether we get to twenty five will
be the key for markets. Yeah, Shane, thanks very much.
I really appreciate it. Shane Soley, Harbor Asset Management. For
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(02:52):
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