Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: The polls revealed how people felt about the pay equity saga

We've had a case of conflicting polls over the last twenty-four hours, with two completely different Governments predicted.

But if there's one thing you can take from these polls, which they both agree on, it's that the pay equity revamp hasn’t turned into the circuit breaker that the left clearly thought it was going to be.

The polls are almost identical in the proportion of people who oppose the revamp. The One News poll had 45 percent, the RNZ poll had 43 percent.

That is not big. It is absolutely a plurality - in both polls, more people oppose it than support it.

I’ve seen polls where 70 percent, 80 percent of people oppose something. Someone pointed out to me the polls that were done after Hekia Parata used Budget 2012 to announce class sizes would change - about 80 percent hated it. So 45 percent is nothing.

It certainly isn’t the circuit breaker and make-people-hate-the-Government moment that Labour and the Greens and the unions were hoping it would be.

Why? I don’t know. I thought it was a slam dunk for the opposition to run home but maybe people didn’t understand it enough to care.

Maybe the Government managed to claw back the narrative when it started properly explaining what it was doing, maybe Labour completely ballsed it up, maybe Andrea Vance distracted everyone by calling female ministers the c-bomb.

Or maybe people are just ideologically entrenched and not wanting to oppose anything the Government does because they voted for the Government - and so on.

I don’t know. But what is clear is that it’s not the moment it could’ve been - or was expected to be.

And the Government has not been damaged by this as badly as it could’ve been.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well, we have a case of conflicting poles, don't we.
Those two poles over the last twenty four hours have
two completely different governments predicted. But if there is one thing,
and so you can be forgiven for feeling quite confused
right now. But if there's one thing that you absolutely
can take from these poles, one thing which they do
agree on, it's that the pay equity revamp has not
turned into the circuit breaker that the left clearly thought

(00:20):
it was going to be. The poles are almost for
all of the things they don't agree on, they are
almost identical in the proportion of people they reckon who
oppose the revamp. The One News poll had forty five
percent opposed. The R and Z pole had forty three
percent to post not big. I mean, sure, it's a
plurality and both poles. More people oppose it than support it,
But it's not big. I've seen poles where seventy percent,

(00:42):
eighty percent of people oppose something that's big. I mean,
I was talking to somebody about this today. They pointed
me to the poles that were done after the twenty
twelve budget, when Hekkia Parata announced that the class sizes
would change about eighty percent of people told those poles
they hated it. That's the kind of number that forces
a U. That's why Heka did do a U turn.
Forty five forty three percent. That ain't anything. I mean,

(01:05):
it's definitely not a circuit breaker. It's not the make
people hate the government moment that Labor and the Greens
and the unions were hoping it was going to be.
Now why there is not a greater level of opposition
I don't know, because I thought this was a slam
dunk for the opposition to be able to run home on.
But maybe people didn't really understand it enough to care.
Maybe the government managed to claw back the narrative when

(01:27):
it started properly explaining what it was doing. Maybe Labor
just ballsed it up. Frankly, maybe Andrea Ants distracted everyone
by calling female ministers the sea bomb. Maybe people are
just ideologically entrenched nowadays. You know, they support things the
government does because they voted for the government. They won't
oppose things the government does because they've voted for the government,
and so on and so on. I don't know, but
what is clear is that it is not the moment

(01:49):
it could have been, or that it was expected to
have been, and that actually the government should be relieved
it has not been badly damaged by this, certainly not
as badly as it could have been. For more from
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