Michael Fullilove: Lowy Institute executive director on whether Donald Trump will scrap the AUKUS pact with the UK and Australia

The Trump administration is unlikely to scrap its defence pact with the UK and Australia.

The Pentagon says it's looking over the deal, to ensure it meets the President's 'America First' agenda.  

Australia expects to acquire nuclear-submarines, under the pact.

Australia's Lowy Institute executive director, Michael Fullilove says it's all speculative at this stage.

"It's not that unusual for new Governments to review deals that have been made by their predecessors - I note that all of the most senior people around President Trump are in favour of AUKUS."

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Afternoon, it looks like there may be trouble for the
Orca security pack. The US is reviewing it to make
sure it aligns with Donald Trump's America First Agenda agenda. Now.
Doctor Michael fully Up is the executive director of the
Loewe Institute in Australia. Michael, Hello, Hello, Heather Michael. Central
to the still, obviously, are those hugely expensive submarines. Is
Australia still going to be buying those?

Speaker 2 (00:23):
I think at this stage, I mean, there's the Trump
administration has called a thirty day review into the Orcus arrangement,
but it's not that unusual for new governments to review
adeals that have been made by their predecessors. I note
that all of the most senior people around President Trump

(00:43):
are in favor of AUCUS, including his National Security Advisor
and Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Defense Secretary
Pete Hegseth. The Australian government says it's full steam ahead.
We release polling today that shows at sixty seven percent
of Australians think it's in Australia interest to have to
acquire nuclear powered submarine. So I think at this stage

(01:04):
it's important not to freak out. And at this stage, yes,
I think it is going ahead.

Speaker 1 (01:08):
Oh, I mean we had all just assumed that this
was their way of getting out of it, So you're
pretty confident it's going to keep going. What is the
reason then for the review? Is it to apply pressure
to Australia?

Speaker 2 (01:21):
Well, I yeah, I mean it's a matter of speculation.
It's possible, of course that the review comes out in
a negative way for August. But when I spoke to
my Washington contacts this morning, for example, most people think
the Trump administration is unlikely to kill Aucus. They're more likely,
I think, to use this as leverage, perhaps to encourage

(01:42):
Australia to spend more on defense.

Speaker 1 (01:44):
Right, And do you think that'll be enough to get
them to basically commit to this pact?

Speaker 2 (01:50):
To get the Trump administration?

Speaker 1 (01:52):
Yes, If Australia was to lift its spending on defense,
which is clearly what Trump wants everyone basically to do,
would that be enough for Trump to commit to this pack?

Speaker 2 (02:01):
Well, I wouldn't. I wouldn't present it quite in that way, Heather.
I think Australia. I think Australia should increase its defense spending.
The reason for that is not to give a trophy
to Donald Trump or to win an argument over Ucus.
But the reason for that is that the world is
much more dangerous than it has been for a long time,
and almost all of our like minded countries and democracies

(02:22):
around the world, in response to the kind of behavior
from Russia and China, are increasing their defense budgets and
improving the capabilities of their defense force. So I think
we should be doing that in our own interest. I
wouldn't say that's part of the quid pro quo on
Orcus from the Australian point of.

Speaker 1 (02:40):
View now, But notwithstanding whether it's the right thing to do,
and I agree with you obviously, I mean, the world
is a different place to what it was thirty years ago.
Let's say everybody should be thinking about this. But notwithstanding
whether it's the right thing to do. That is clearly
what Trump wants, isn't it.

Speaker 2 (02:55):
Well, this is all speculation. We don't really know what
Trump thinks about this. You might remember that President Trump
was asked about Aucust I think it was in February,
and he didn't recognize the acronym. So I don't I
suspect he doesn't have a settled view on Aucus. And
I think, to answer your question, it depends on how
on how his officials present Aucust to him. If an

(03:17):
Orcust skeptic like Elbridge Colby, who is running this review,
says look, boss, this is not in our interests because
we don't have enough submarines to go around, then mister
Trump won't like it. It won't appeal to the America
First mentality. If, on the other hand, his Secretary of State,
his National Security Advisor, his Defense secretary say this is
in our interest because the Australians are investing in the

(03:38):
defense industrial base and this will strengthen the alliance with
Australia and there'll be more allied capability to ter poor
behavior by China, then that feels like a win for
an America First to like President Trump. So I think
a lot of it, As with everything in this administration,
a lot of it comes down to President Trump's personal response,

(03:58):
and we don't yet know what that is on ORCT.

Speaker 1 (04:00):
Michael, thanks for your time. I really appreciate it, Doctor
Michael fully Love, who's the executive director at the Lowe Institute.

Speaker 2 (04:05):
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