Geoffrey Miller: geopolitical analyst on the 'unclear' ceasefire between Israel and Iran

The sun's rising in the Middle East - on an uncertain kind of ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

Iran State Television has claimed a ceasefire now applies - although Israel's made no official comment yet.

Earlier today, US President Donald Trump announced hostilities would pause between Israel and Iran, saying they want peace.

Geopolitical analyst Geoffrey Miller says a very strange, staggered ceasefire reportedly applies.

"There's now, according to Donald Trump, you've got a 12-hour window until 4am NZT tomorrow in which Israel will be allowed to strike Iran - but Iran will not be able to strike back."

Iran retaliated overnight to US strikes on its nuclear sites - with its attacks intercepted.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good afternoon. So there is confusion this afternoon over whether
we have a cease fire between Israel and Iran or not.
Donald Trump made the claim earlier that both countries had agreed,
but then Iran's foreign minister earlier said there was no agreement.
Jeffrey Miller is a geopolitical relations expert from Victoria University
with US.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
Now. Hey, Jeffrey, good evening here.

Speaker 1 (00:17):
So do we have one or not?

Speaker 2 (00:20):
I think we do now at as of four o'clock
New Zealand time. It is all very very strange. I've
been following it all throughout the day and there have
been claims and counterclaims and you just can't work out
exactly what's going on. But apparently there's now according to
Donald Trump, you've got a twelve hour window so until
four am New Zealand time tomorrow, in which Israel will

(00:40):
be allowed to strike Iran, but Iran will not be
able to strike that and if that holds, then the
cease fire will a full cease file will be in
plus from four am tomorrow morning. It's all very strange.

Speaker 1 (00:50):
Why would those be good then?

Speaker 2 (00:51):
And hopefully hopefully we do have a cease fire now finally,
why why.

Speaker 1 (00:55):
Would those be the terms that Israel can fire but
not the other way.

Speaker 2 (00:59):
Goodness no, it's goodness No. It's a very strange ceasefire.
And Israel still has not even officially announced or confirmed
the ceasefires in place. It is very difficult to make
out what's going on. But look, let's take Donald Trump
at his word and we can all watch and see
whether the ceasefire does hold.

Speaker 1 (01:15):
Does this mean that Donald Trump's gamble in bombing those
three sites has paid off?

Speaker 2 (01:21):
I don't think so. Look, I think this has been
madness over the last two weeks. I think it's been
incredibly foolish. And what we've seen from both Israel and
the United States, I think none of this is conducive
to Israel's future security, safety, prosperity. And I say that
as a strong supporter of Israel's right to exist and
right to prosper I just don't think you can get

(01:44):
here with a get there with the military solution. I
think this will only harden Around's desire to build a
nuclear weapon in the future. And if you think they're
really going to take this lying down and just give
up on their ambitions to have a nuclear weapon, I
think you've got another thing coming. You know, they've had
dozens of nuclear scientists now killed, They've had the top
military commands taken out, the top military leadership taken out,

(02:06):
hundreds of ordinary civilians apparently been killed, and many others
in Iran. So look, I don't know why you think
that this is going to make Israel sorry of make
Iran more amenable to Israel or the United States. It's crazy.

Speaker 1 (02:21):
What was the alternative?

Speaker 2 (02:24):
The alternative was to continue with the negotiations. Look, Donald
Trump started the negotiations himself, with Steve Whitcoff leading five
rounds of negotiations. There had been in Muscat. Was went
best six round and then Israel came over the top
and bombed I ran. Then last week on Friday, the
Iranian foreign minister was there with the European foreign ministers
in Geneva, and then the US came over the top

(02:46):
and bombed Iran. And it was all just a great one,
the great deception, the idea that Donald Trump was taking
two weeks, it was none of that. Behind the scenes,
he was scheming with Beniminettino who to join the war.

Speaker 1 (03:00):
Jeffrey, I mean, we can all see that one side
has behaved, you know, in an unbecoming fashion here. But
you would if Iran had agreed to something, would you
really have believed them?

Speaker 2 (03:12):
Well, I'll put it to you, why would Iran believe
anything that the US says? Now? After how the US is.

Speaker 1 (03:17):
I'm simply asking the question because it seems to me
that it doesn't matter which path you pick, they end
up with a nuke.

Speaker 2 (03:24):
Look, let's stop the madness. Look we saw what happened
today with Iran striking cuta one of the Golf States.
It's just never happened before. We haven't had one of
the Golf States targeted quite in this way by Iran,
and it's unprecedented. And these are countries, by the way,
the Golf States that New Zeven gets on very well with.
They're our friends in many ways. And Christopher Luxon was

(03:47):
up there in the United Arab Emirates in January we
signed two trade deals with the Golf States. As I say,
this is all maddeners here, and we absolutely need to
get back to peace and get back to dialogue de escalation.
And I think New Zealand really can play a small
but important part in that, just given the connections that
New Zealand has into the Gulf region and that we

(04:10):
shouldn't forget the Katari Prime Minister Shank Muhammad al Thani.
He played a key role in brokering this ceasefire. Apparently
he was in Wellington last August visiting in New Zealand,
so Christopher Luxon has probably got his phone number in
his phone he should use that.

Speaker 1 (04:24):
Hey, I really appreciate your expertise, Jeffrey, thanks so much,
Jeffrey Miller, geopolitical relations expert. For more from Hither Duplessy
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