Peter Tesch: former Australian ambassador to Russia on Donald Trump threatening Russia with 'severe' tariffs

A significant moment for Ukraine - as the US falls into line with NATO. 

President Donald Trump's pledged billions of dollars of weapons to Ukraine, through a sale to NATO. 

He's also threatening Russia with 100 percent secondary tariffs if the Kremlin doesn't make a ceasefire deal within 50 days. 

Former Australian ambassador to Russia, Peter Tesch says US policy is too fickle to make this a complete game changer.

"It is an important signal - and a very welcome signal to Ukraine and NATO that the US won't hinder their efforts to defend Ukraine at their own expense."

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Big change in Trump's position on Russia and Putin. Overnight,
He's sending weapons to Ukraine through NATO, threatening more sanctions
for Putin and Taris on Russia's trading partners. I'm disappointed
in President Important because I thought we would have had
a field two months ago, but it doesn't seem to
get there. Peter Tesh is former Australian Ambassador to Russia.

(00:21):
With me tonight, Hi, Peter.

Speaker 2 (00:24):
Good day, Ryan. Good to be with you.

Speaker 1 (00:26):
Great to have you here. Is this a game changer?
Do you think?

Speaker 2 (00:31):
I think we should acknowledge that this Oval Office meeting
on Ukraine certainly went better than the last one, But
I don't think it is a game changer. We've seen
too much fickleness in US policy to think that this
marks a real sea change. But it is an important signal,
and a very welcome signal to Ukraine and NATO that

(00:52):
the US won't hinder their efforts to defend Ukraine at
their own expense. But it is certainly not the kind
of knockout blow that I think we need after three
and a half years of Putin's brutal war of choice?

Speaker 1 (01:06):
Does Trump risk looking like the boy who cried Wolfare.
He has threatened the secondary tariffs previously and hasn't followed through.

Speaker 2 (01:18):
Well, We've seen reports that the Moscow stock exchange rose
because the feared economic stick has turned out for now
at least to be a twig secondary tariffs in fifty days.
That's a very long time. It's a signal to Russia,
look at where your vulnerabilities are, staunch those and get ready.

(01:40):
But I do think that there is a little bit
more backing now in the form of the bipartisan draft
in the US Senate for imposing more severe sanctions on Russia.
There is no doubt that the US could do more
to hurt Russia. So far we haven't seen taking action

(02:01):
that really increases the pressure on Russia to halt the
war that Putin started. But look, this is really an
important moment for Ukraine. It is the equipping of Ukraine
with capabilities it desperately needs to defend itself against the
increasing airborne assault missiles, drones, glide bombs that Putin is

(02:24):
directing at civilian infrastructure and civilians throughout Ukraine. But precisely
how the Kremlin will interpret this remains to be seen.

Speaker 1 (02:34):
Yeah, so that's obviously up for debate is how seriously
Russia will take it. But why now from Trump? Why
after six months in office is he taking such an interest.

Speaker 2 (02:48):
Well, that's the critical thing. I mean, tens of thousands
of Ukrainian and indeed Russian lives might have been saved
if Trump had been less credulous about Putin and if
his envoys hadn't merely been parroting Kremlin talking points for
the last six months. So if I reflect on this
from the perspective of my politically incorrect schoolboy days in

(03:09):
Brisbane forty five years ago, it's a bit of a
duh moment. I mean, have you only just realized now
that Putin has been playing you for a chump? And
I think this is something that has now dawned on Trump.
He's said, in fact, in his meeting with Mark Uritte,
the Secretary General of NATO in the Oval Office, four
times now we thought we had a deal. Well, perhaps

(03:31):
even Trump realizes that after the fourth failed deal, the
other party may not be actually treating in good faith.
So I think he doesn't want to look weak. He
doesn't look like he's being played for a fool, and
that is perhaps for a man who really focuses on cards,
the best card that he has, namely that Putin has

(03:52):
misjudged the opportunity in much the same way he misjudged
his strategic calculation to start the war in the first
place three and a half years ago.

Speaker 1 (04:01):
Peter, appreciate you coming on the show with your analysis tonight.
Peter Tish, who's a former Australian ambassador to Rush It
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