Barry Soper: Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent ahead of the GDP figures coming out

New GDP figures are set to be unveiled tomorrow, and there's concerns from experts that the economy is struggling.

The upcoming GDP data is projected to show an economy under pressure, as earlier forecasts of an incoming rebound look less and less likely.

Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper says the Finance Minister is trying to soften the blow and put things in perspective.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Very so for senior political correspondence with US.

Speaker 2 (00:02):
Hello, Barry, Good afternoon, Heather.

Speaker 1 (00:03):
So has Nikola Will has been asked about the GDP No, well.

Speaker 2 (00:07):
She was asked about it in parliament. Was the indication
was that the economy is not doing what it should be.

Speaker 1 (00:14):
Doing because the numbers coming out tomorrow.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
The GDP number is coming out tomorrow, but it covers
April to June, so it's well out. It's way back.
You've got to say, economists anticipate a contraction on the
economy forecasts for between zero point three and zero point
five percent. It should be remembered though that that followed

(00:36):
a zero point eight percent at the beginning of the year,
so we started off quite positively and then started going downhill.
And this one is not going to be good news.
And you'd have to say the Finance minister was it
pained to emphasize that tomorrow's number is not going to
be a good one. Nikola Will have told Parliament this afternoon.
It's important to put the figure into some sort of

(00:57):
perspective though.

Speaker 3 (00:58):
This is a good example of award looking data. The
second quarter started on the first of April, before the
Liberation Day tariff announcements, the biggest hit to trade openness
since the nineteen thirties. And we are now only a
couple of weeks away from the fourth quarter. Peering in
the rear view mirror. Forecasters are picking a negative number

(01:21):
for growth in Q two, somewhere between negative zero points
three percent to negative zero point five percent.

Speaker 2 (01:29):
So not going to be good. She's certainly softening the blow,
there's no doubt about that. But she did say that
she believes now the quarter we're in at the moment
will be plus zero point five percent with the final
quarter this year. So she said this publicly just under
one percent. So one can only hope the economy is

(01:50):
turning the corner. And we see the trade deficit today
was quite minimal compared to what it has been.

Speaker 3 (01:56):
YEA.

Speaker 1 (01:56):
Well, she's obviously feeling sensitive about it because those that
poll that came yesterday, yep, was that you know, she
and the current government at copying the blame.

Speaker 2 (02:04):
For this, They are copying the blame.

Speaker 1 (02:06):
FARS vote is a concerned all right.

Speaker 4 (02:08):
So Shane Jones has been elected to a position that
probably all of us assumed he had anyway.

Speaker 2 (02:14):
Yeah, I don't think we've even thought about a deputy
Leader of New Zealand. First, I mean it's nominated so
much by Winston Peter.

Speaker 1 (02:22):
Doesn't Ron Mark the deputy once, Yes, he was although.

Speaker 2 (02:29):
Wanted deputy, although I remember he wanted to be leader,
that's right. I think he was deputy. Fletcher Tabatao he
was deputy between seventeen and twenty Yeah, when they first
went into coalition with the Labor Party. So it's an
interesting one and I think what it does is it
could signal two things. One to Stuart Nash, who's clearly

(02:52):
wanted to enter the New Zealand first fray and will
no doubt be nominated as a candidate somewhere along the track.

Speaker 1 (03:01):
Well, it's telling him Shane still.

Speaker 2 (03:03):
Right, Yeah, that's right. The other thing it could indicate
is that Winston Peters is considering his own retirement, although
I wouldn't put any money on that at all. I
mean he might be eighty, but as an octagenarian Winston
performs still pretty well. He's a good foreign Minister and
I think he quite likes the job and he will want,
I think, probably to run again next year of his

(03:26):
healthholds up, and it looks as though it's holding.

Speaker 1 (03:29):
Up for that question, not why if he was prepared
to hand it out to others beforehand, like Fletcher and Ron.
Why he makes Shane work so bloody hard for it?
Does he? Because they've been deputyless this entire term.

Speaker 2 (03:41):
Well noted though that that's the thing. And look, Shane
Jones is a performer. I think he's one of the
better performers in Parliament. He hits the nail on the head.
He might get up the back of many, but he's
a very good orator and I think is a very
colorful member of New Zealand first and they could do
worse in appointing him as the leader after Winston finally

(04:04):
calls it quit.

Speaker 4 (04:05):
So has National got in trouble for making the announcements
of announcers?

Speaker 1 (04:08):
Oh well they are want to do well.

Speaker 2 (04:11):
This gave me a fit of dejacquesvous, I've got to say, though,
it was a case of the pot calling the kettle black.
When Chris Hopkins went after the government for making announcements
of an announcement. Labor made an art form of that.
You'll remember when it was in government in its own right,
and we were constantly talking about it on this program.

(04:32):
Still trippy seems to have a short memory, because he
was pointing the finger at Chris Luxen for doing exactly
the same thing here.

Speaker 4 (04:39):
He is he's more interested in announcements than actually funding
and delivering the infrastructure that New Zeala needs.

Speaker 1 (04:47):
A crocodile tears. Crocodile tears were trying to gaslight the
nation here. Let's just be clear.

Speaker 2 (04:54):
You crashed the joint.

Speaker 1 (04:55):
You didn't deliver anything.

Speaker 5 (04:57):
It's incredibly disappointing after six years, three years with an
absoute jot, you did so very very little.

Speaker 3 (05:03):
South Entry.

Speaker 5 (05:04):
David Seawall, is the government committed to construction projects that
are actually constructed or is there any circumstance where it
would ever content itself with announcing bike bridges and light
rail that doesn't get built for years and years and years.

Speaker 1 (05:20):
We have real projects, not phantom projects.

Speaker 2 (05:23):
I'll tell you that baby boomers bike bridge to Birkenhead.
We will never forget that. I mean, I think they
spent what fifty million dollars on that, and we're still
waiting on the bike bridge to burken here.

Speaker 1 (05:36):
I think we're still waiting for an idea quite as
stupid as that.

Speaker 4 (05:38):
Thank you, Barry exactly appreciate it. Barry Soper, Senior political correspondent.
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