Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: The talk of rolling Luxon is very real

Either Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is telling porkies, or he’s the most out-of-the-loop person in Wellington. His claim that there’s “no talk” of rolling Chris Luxon is complete nonsense. There is talk—serious talk.

I can tell you for a fact that senior National Party ministers believe Luxon can’t continue in the job. MPs are actively discussing whether to pull the pin and replace him. If they do, the most likely successor is Chris Bishop. But—and this is crucial—they haven’t decided to do it yet.

Why? Because it’s risky. Rolling a sitting Prime Minister has only happened once before, with Jim Bolger, and that didn’t end well. MPs know that sticking with Luxon might pay off if the economy improves next year. Better economic conditions could lift National’s polling and save seats currently at risk.

But there’s a flip side: if the polls don’t recover, Luxon’s unpopularity could drag National down further. Like it or not

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well either the Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is telling Porky's
or he is the most out of the loop person
in Wellington. But it is complete bs for him to
suggest that there is no talk of rolling Chris Luxon. Yes,
that is, yes, there is. I can tell you for
a fact that there are senior National Party ministers who
say Luxon can't continue in the job. I can tell

(00:20):
you for a fact that MPs are talking to each
other about whether they should roll him, because they are
considering whether to pill pen and roll him. But if
they do roll him, the most likely person that they
will roll him for is Chris Bishop. But they haven't
and this is important, they haven't decided to do it.
Either that or they don't have the numbers to do it,

(00:41):
probably because it is a really really risky thing to do.
It's only happened once before rolling a sitting prime minis center.
It was Jim Bolger and that didn't go well for
a number of reasons. Now there is always the chance
as well. This is what they've got to take into consideration.
There is always the chance that sticking with Luxon might
be okay next year if the economy improves. Nationals polls

(01:02):
will probably go up. Some of the MPs worried about
losing their seats on current polling will then be fine.
But there is a chance that the polls don't recover
enough to save all of the MPs at risk losing
their seats right now because Luckson is so unpopular that
he is a drag on Nationals vote, and like it
or not, modern elections are about who you want as

(01:22):
your prime minister. Jacinda is the reason that Labour's vote
went up in twenty seventeen. Luxon is part of the
reason that Nationals vote has fallen. Chris Bishop may do
a better guess a better job, but that is just
going to be a guess, right We do not know
they will be guessing. National MPs cannot be sure. He
could also do a terrible job. Also, the instability that's
created by rolling a sitting prime minister could make Nationals

(01:45):
vote fall even further. It is a high risk move, frankly,
either way, Sticking with Luxen who is unpopular as high risk.
Trying out Chris Bishop, who's unproven is also high risk.
It is a call that frankly, I myself would not
want to make, but it is a call that national
MPs are making, and they are making it right now.
They are deciding right now whether they do this or not.

(02:05):
It may never eventuate, but the talk, trust me, is real.
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