Barry Soper: The political strength, or lack thereof, of the National led coalition

Rumours have been swirling of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon getting rolled by his party.

Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith denied the rumours saying no one in National’s caucus had raised with him the idea of replacing Luxon. 

In recent polls National has lagged behind Labour with 33% versus 38% in the Talbot Mills/Anacta poll conducted between November 1 and 10. 

This has fanned the flames of conversation regarding the likelihood of National's re-election next year.

Although, Barry Soper told Heather du Plessis-Allan, "essentially you've got Labour on the ropes, whereas you've got, the coalition government headed by National in a much stronger position."

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Wrapping the political week that was is our senior political correspondent,
Barry Sober. Welcome back, Barry, Hello again, Heather. Do you think,
given the amount of discussion that there has now been
about whether there's going to be a co Recrysluxan, does
he need to flush this out.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
On day Most definitely he should, I think before the
year ends, go and talk to his caucus. Put it
to them that look where laborers at the moment. You've
got the Green saying that they will revoke mining licenses
if are part of a government. Of course they have

(00:35):
to get agreement out of labor on that. And then
you've got the Maldi Party, which is in no condition
to be anywhere near the government benches at the moment.
So essentially you've got labor on the ropes, whereas you've
got the coalition government head headed by National in a
much stronger possession. And the only reason that Chris Luxon

(00:55):
hasn't really got any treaditya his traction. Traction is the
word I'm looking for, traction. The only reason he hasn't
got any attraction is the fact that, look, this economy
was in a parlor state when the government took it over.
It takes time to turn it around, and people are
still hurting, and when people hurd it's the mood of

(01:18):
the public that really wins or loses elections. So my
pick is that next year we're going to see the
economy pecking up in terms of GDP. You'll see the
next figure will I would imagine, be one of growth,
and you'll see the mood of the nation changed to
some extent, and then you'll see the National Party will

(01:40):
be not as strong as it has been in the past,
but at least it'll be treading back to where it was.

Speaker 1 (01:47):
Do you think Chris Luxon's good at the job?

Speaker 2 (01:49):
Yes, I do. I think he's I think he relates
very well to the public when he goes out and
meets them, But it's hard to get traction when you're
in a government that's seen by many he is not
doing enough to get this economy going again.

Speaker 1 (02:04):
Okay, now I didn't get enough time to talk to
you about this enough earlier, so read the thing with
David Seymour and Winston Peters. What I thought was interesting
was yesterday David Seymour said that Winston was behaving like
he wants to go back to labor and he'd done
that about two o'clock in the afternoon, and then he
was on our show at half plus five and he
wouldn't repeat it. Had Winston told him off in the
intervening period, Has he been given the telling off? No,

(02:26):
I don't think because it's not a cool thing to say.

Speaker 2 (02:28):
What what what? Winston said? No?

Speaker 1 (02:30):
What day?

Speaker 2 (02:30):
David Seymour had said.

Speaker 1 (02:32):
No, yeah, I did Winston telling.

Speaker 2 (02:33):
The thing is that Winston's shrewd enough politician to not
personalize stuff, whereas David Seymour he personalized the attack on Winston,
saying that he doesn't know where he's going and what
are you talking about?

Speaker 1 (02:46):
Winston called him a cuckold.

Speaker 2 (02:48):
Very early on here, that that was you mean now
they got him to coalition? Oh? Absolutely, Winston knows how
to play the coalition game, even though it's playing to
all of us that he's out there campaigning at the moment.
And certainly this Regulatory Standards Act now is one that
he says. Look, when it was originally proposed during the

(03:09):
Coalition negotiations, there was a clause in it that it
would go to referendum. Well that was dropped and the
final analysis and the excuse that he made was when
Casey Costello got up in Parliament and praised the bill
and said the House should be supporting this bill. Winston
was overseas and he said he's not blaming she's not

(03:30):
blaming Casey, but he said, you know they've gone too
far and our campaign against it, well, look that's what
they're entitled to do. It was an act party piece
of legislation, and act in New Zealand first have never
been bad buddies, really.

Speaker 1 (03:44):
No, not at all, not at all. What's happening this
weekend with the Maori Party? Are they having the meeting
or are they not having the mate?

Speaker 2 (03:51):
They are having the meeting and in the far North
who he is and it's the teetay toque voters Moremento
Kappa Kinghy, the executive of the Maldi Party, is saying
we're not coming along, okay.

Speaker 1 (04:07):
So that's why I thought the meeting's off because they're
not coming, But the meeting's carrying on with.

Speaker 2 (04:11):
He's carrying on without the man. Look, and I think
Nata Glavish will be speaking at that meeting and she
is no friend of John Tammerherry in fact, in the
past has said that he should go for the sake
of the party. So you'll see a lot of that repeated,
but it'll be Teeta tokab on their own in a
way that the executive won't be there. But I think

(04:34):
the executive giving them the cold shoulder is a mistake.
If the hanahar Aware, as you know, said earlier this week,
why don't we get around the table get back together.
But that's not going to happen either. So you've got
a fractured Maori party, not good for Labor, but happily
for the national party. They would say, well, this is

(04:55):
a good thing. Labor's on the ropes. Well they're talking
leadership there though.

Speaker 1 (04:59):
Why it's just and they're going to be on the
Graham Norton Show. What's she's selling? You're only on it
when you're selling something.

Speaker 2 (05:04):
She's what she's selling your autobiography and still well that
and there's a movie I believe has come out, so
she'll be selling that as well. And look, would you
like or dislike Jason da Durn When I traveled overseas
with her for many years, the media scrambled to have
her on their programs, and Stephen Colbert in the United

(05:25):
States on the Late Show was a good example of that,
and she invited him, went and picked him up at
the airport when he came here. A bit too much
for a prime minister. But nevertheless, she loves the publicity.
She's getting more of it. And I'll tell you what.
On December the twelfth, you can watch You're on TV
and zed on the Graham Norton Show.

Speaker 1 (05:44):
Can not Wait, Barry, thank you very much. It's very
sober senior political corresponding.

Speaker 2 (05:50):
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