Perspective with Ryan Bridge: Another fiscal result telling us what we already know

Well, of course you heard it here first last Monday - the surplus has been pushed out again.

It's like waiting for Christmas when you're a ten-year-old, the whole month of December feels like an eternity.

This lot have now pushed it out three times and changed the definition of surplus. Not only have we moved the goalposts, we've lowered them, too.

Next year's deficit is almost $14 billion, that's $1.8 billion worse than they thought it would be in May. We're not back in black till 2030 now, instead of 2029.

That's what happens when you borrow a bunch of money you have to pay back and then fail to grow your way out of it.

Basically, Grant Robertson went and bought a brand new lambo on the credit card and then when he buggered off, we got Nicola who promised she'd get us some more work to pay for the debt so we wouldn't go broke. 

But that extra work hasn't quite happened yet - so here we are.

The good news is - it is coming, they tell us. More than 3 percent next year. In theory. All going to plan. And Willis is promising to get the surplus by 2029, even if the books don't show that yet.

I think it's enough to get them re-elected, providing no surprises from Winston, because people know what the alternative is.

And that's more debt. On ghost visits to the doctor for billionaires who don't need it with GPs we don't have. Yes, they could please Hooten and slash spending - I'd be here for it.

But this is MMP and they're an unashamedly centrist party that needs to win the centre.

And winning the centre means not spooking the horses, which is what massive cuts would achieve.

So, another fiscal result we were mostly expecting telling us what we mostly knew was coming.

Like the last two polls of the year, the pre-Christmas treat for Luxon and co. is - the growth is coming on stream, finally, in an election year.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well, of course you heard it here first last Monday.
Pretty much the surplus has been pushed out again. It's
like waiting for Christmas when you're ten years old. You
know how long December feels like when you are ten
years old and eternity, And that's what it's like waiting
for this surplus to come. This lot of now pushed
it out three times and changed the definition of surplus.

(00:22):
Not only have we moved the goalposts, we've also loaded them.
Next year's deficit is almost fourteen billion dollars. That's one
point eight billion worse than they thought it would be
back in May. We're not back into the black until
twenty thirty now instead of twenty twenty nine. And that's
what happens when you borrow a bunch of money that
you have to pay back and then you fail to

(00:42):
grow your way out of it. Basically, Grant Robertson went
out there with our credit card and bought a brand
new Lambeau and then bug it off. We got Nikola in.
She's promising. She has promised to get us some more
work to pay for the debt, so we won't go broke.
That extra work hasn't quite happened yet, so here we are.

(01:03):
The good news is that it is coming. They tell
us more than three percent next year in theory, all
going to plan, and Willis is promising to get the
surplus back by twenty twenty nine, even if the books
don't quite show that yet. I think this is enough
to get them reelected. Yes, it's bad, and I'll get
some bad headlines today, but enough to get them re elected,
providing no surprises from Winston because people know what the

(01:26):
alternative is, and that's more debt on ghost visits to
the doctor for billionaires who don't need it. With GPS
we don't have. Yes, they could please hooton sl and
slash spending. I'd be here for a bit of that,
But this is MMP. They are unashamedly a centrist party
that needs to win the center, and winning the center

(01:48):
means not spooking the horses, which is what massive cuts
would achieve. So another fiscal result we were mostly expecting,
telling us what we mostly knew was coming. Like the
last two of the year, though the pre Christmas treat
for Luxen and Co. Is the growth is coming on
stream finally in theory in an election year.

Speaker 2 (02:10):
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