Sam Dickie: Fisher Funds expert looks back on global equity markets for 2025

2025 has been a memorable year for global equity markets, and it's prompted speculation from investors. 

Between economic downturns and tariffs, there's been plenty for experts to voice concerns about.

Fisher Funds expert Sam Dickie explained further.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So it's been a wild ride for global equity markets
this year. We all know that here Donald Trump wasn't
even president on the first of January. Can you believe
that despite all the volatility, we're not a whisker off
all time highs now as we end the year. Sam
Dickie is with Fisher Funds and is with me tonight, Sam,
Good evening, Good evening, Ryan. What are the key lessons
do you reckon that we should take away from this year?

Speaker 2 (00:23):
Yeah, roller coaster. So there's three things. We were reminded again,
when everyone in the market has the same view, it's
on the front page of all the newspapers, it often
pays to disagree and take the other side. So you
mentioned it. On April eighth, a few days after President
Trump's Liberation Day, economists were very very ars saying the
risk of recession was spiking, and if you read the newspaper,

(00:45):
you would have sold everything that put in time. Headlines
were comparing the looming trade war to remember the Smoot
Hawley Act in nineteen thirty, which raised duties on twenty
thousand goods and arguably turned a recession into the Great Depression.
As it turned out, Trump's bark was worse than as
by Global equity markets are up forty percent in eight
months since then, which is actually one of the fastest
rallies on record in two hundred years. Second thing is

(01:09):
we were reminded that there are other places to make
money outside of the US, So barring disaster in the
next few days, it's only the third time in fifteen
years that non US equities outperform US equities. So Japan
is up almost twenty five percent as the stock exchange
is forcing investors to be more shareholder friendly, paid more dividends.
Countries like China and the UK have just gotten too

(01:30):
cheap and are up significantly more than the US. And
the final thing is we've learned again that the equity
market is now extremely concentrated in the US. So the
top ten stocks in the SMP five hundred of five
hundred stock index make up forty percent of the index.
So it's ten stocks out of five hundred making up
forty percent. That is the most concentrated ever and has

(01:52):
really interesting future implications for you know, those fund managers
that are passive investors or index huggers.

Speaker 1 (02:02):
Sam, can you give us a sneak peek into twenty
twenty six.

Speaker 2 (02:06):
So we talked you and I ran and you and
Heather and I back in October about the risks of
the AI bubble popping. Now, the really good news is
we've had a really healthy correction and some of those
perceived AI winners, especially at the risky A end of town.
So companies that were using tons of debt to fund
this AI capex bonanza are down to lots of Oracles

(02:28):
down fifty percent, core weaves down sixty five percent. So
the point there is it's good news that investors are
becoming more discerning. So with that in mind, as we
sort of peak into twenty twenty six, the market is
shifted from buy AI at any price to show me
the return, show me the return on the massive amounts
of capital you're investing. So it's going to be fascinating

(02:49):
to watch whether those huge spenders like Google have gotten
that message yet from the market. Now, if we take
a step back, the headline price to earnings ratio, that
the untest sort of valuation ratio for the market and
the US is really really high, extremely high historically. So
equity markets look expensive on the face of it, but

(03:09):
that's really reflective of what we talked about four rhine.
Some of those top ten companies are really fully valued,
so companies like Tesla on two hundred and fifty times
price to earnings look pretty ritzy. So the good news
is that blue chip companies, quality companies are the most
out of favor in thirty years, and that's boats really
well for focused investors and spells risk for passive index

(03:31):
hugging investors.

Speaker 1 (03:33):
So lots to look forward to. Absolutely, Sam appreciate that update.
Thank you, Sam Dicky from Fisher Funds.

Speaker 2 (03:38):
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